The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #7325 on: February 05, 2011, 10:54:27 AM »

Could be the snowstorms.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7326 on: February 05, 2011, 11:18:23 AM »


More likely Egypt.  The prospect of 'losing' a shaky ally that we never really 'owned' is raw meat for the neo-con wing of the GOP.

This is not eastern Europe in 1989. Egypt begins with a government generally friendly to the US and its economic interests. The best that could happen in eastern Europe was a miracle, and that happened; the worst was either Soviet intervention or the failure of democracy. The worst that could have happened in 1989 was in essence that nothing really changed. In Egypt, the best thing that can happen is that a genuine democracy emerges and that a long-time ally of the US gets to leave for some safe haven, and the new Egypt remains pro-capitalist and sympathetic to American objectives in the US (including a shaky relationship with Israel). The best that can happen for the Egyptian people isn;t going to make life better for Americans. The worst? Iran 1979 all over.

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Penelope
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« Reply #7327 on: February 05, 2011, 12:18:33 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

That strongly disapprove number is staying up.  It is too early to tell about strongly approved.

If this isn't a blip, it is interesting.  The number of people that basically hate Obama is growing, while the number that love him is dwindling.  That is not polarization.  

To be fair, it is Rasmussen. PPP and Gallup are arguably the only polls I think we should really be trusting at this point.

Gallup solely because it has more information and statistics to back everything up.  It's currently at 46-46 even, which to me makes a little more sense.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7328 on: February 05, 2011, 01:28:54 PM »

Gallup is 45-47 today.

Obama is now back to pre-Arizona levels.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7329 on: February 05, 2011, 01:36:28 PM »


Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent. 

Crushing the protests wouldn't have been competent. Especially since we were cool with the one in Tunisia. That would not look good.

There are other solutions than supporting regime change and supporting the crushing of the protests.
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« Reply #7330 on: February 05, 2011, 01:58:03 PM »


Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent. 

Crushing the protests wouldn't have been competent. Especially since we were cool with the one in Tunisia. That would not look good.

There are other solutions than supporting regime change and supporting the crushing of the protests.

Such as?
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Penelope
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« Reply #7331 on: February 05, 2011, 02:04:54 PM »

I'd say the blip is leveling out. Remember, in Gallup, his approval fell 4% in about 2 days.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7332 on: February 05, 2011, 04:27:32 PM »


Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent. 

Crushing the protests wouldn't have been competent. Especially since we were cool with the one in Tunisia. That would not look good.

There are other solutions than supporting regime change and supporting the crushing of the protests.

Such as?

Sam could tell you, but then he would have to kill you.
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King
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« Reply #7333 on: February 05, 2011, 07:56:02 PM »


Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent. 

Crushing the protests wouldn't have been competent. Especially since we were cool with the one in Tunisia. That would not look good.

There are other solutions than supporting regime change and supporting the crushing of the protests.

Such as?

Nothing like a n00b's first encounter with SamSpade.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7334 on: February 06, 2011, 12:35:16 AM »

The Golden State offers no golden opportunities for the Republicans in its 55 electoral votes. Fundraising, maybe, but that's about it.

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I shall spare the gory details for the right-wingers as if there were a mercy rule.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CA_0203424.pdf




 




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 53
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 55
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 39
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  


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J. J.
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« Reply #7335 on: February 06, 2011, 09:53:18 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -2.

It was a bad sample, but it still looks like Obama has declined.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #7336 on: February 06, 2011, 01:27:17 PM »

Gallup is now at 46% approve 45% disaprove. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7337 on: February 06, 2011, 01:33:49 PM »

Vanderbilt University has polled Tennessee recently and found Obama with less than 50% approval in the state. I cannot find exact numbers though:

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The poll was conducted from Jan. 17 to Jan. 23 through statewide random telephone surveys. A total of 710 Tennessee adults responded with a margin of error at plus or minus 3.7 percent.

http://news.vanderbilt.edu/2011/02/economy-including-jobs-tennesseans%E2%80%99-no-1-priority-in-inaugural-vanderbilt-poll/
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7338 on: February 06, 2011, 02:19:57 PM »

Vanderbilt University has polled Tennessee recently and found Obama with less than 50% approval in the state. I cannot find exact numbers though:

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The poll was conducted from Jan. 17 to Jan. 23 through statewide random telephone surveys. A total of 710 Tennessee adults responded with a margin of error at plus or minus 3.7 percent.

http://news.vanderbilt.edu/2011/02/economy-including-jobs-tennesseans%E2%80%99-no-1-priority-in-inaugural-vanderbilt-poll/

Imprecise, so not usable. In any event, Tennessee is one of the possibilities for the PPP poll of next week. The state would be interesting because traditionally, Tennessee has been one of the more liberal states in the South. The state has had Al Gore and Jim Sasser as senators, and came close to electing Harold Ford in 2006.

If any southern state west of the Appalachians has any chance of going for Obama it is Tennessee.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7339 on: February 06, 2011, 05:50:14 PM »

Simultaneous bad samples in two different polling companies. Unusally, but I guess anything is possible. Wink
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7340 on: February 06, 2011, 11:17:49 PM »


Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent. 

Crushing the protests wouldn't have been competent. Especially since we were cool with the one in Tunisia. That would not look good.

There are other solutions than supporting regime change and supporting the crushing of the protests.

Such as?

Such as shutting up, like he did with the protests in Iran.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7341 on: February 07, 2011, 04:24:02 AM »

Tennessee (Vanderbilt University/The Tennessean):

44% Approve
54% Disapprove

With 710 respondents to the Vanderbilt Poll, the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7 %. The poll was conducted by calling a random sample of landline telephone numbers over a period of seven days, from Jan. 17 to Jan. 23.

John Geer, professor of political science, and Josh Clinton, associate professor of political science, co-directed the poll.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110207/NEWS02/102070343/Tennesseans-skeptical-President-Obama-Sarah-Palin?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE
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Sbane
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« Reply #7342 on: February 07, 2011, 09:33:11 AM »


Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent. 

Crushing the protests wouldn't have been competent. Especially since we were cool with the one in Tunisia. That would not look good.

There are other solutions than supporting regime change and supporting the crushing of the protests.

Such as?

Such as shutting up, like he did with the protests in Iran.

I thought he's done a pretty decent job of that......

Although recently that did change, I am guessing it was just to show the US isn't propping up Mubarak. There is definitely a very fine balancing act Obama has to do here.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7343 on: February 07, 2011, 09:54:12 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.

Even though there was a three point increase in Strongly Approve, that number is still lower than the period from 1/19 to 2/2/11.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #7344 on: February 07, 2011, 10:56:18 AM »


Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent. 

Crushing the protests wouldn't have been competent. Especially since we were cool with the one in Tunisia. That would not look good.

There are other solutions than supporting regime change and supporting the crushing of the protests.

Such as?

Such as shutting up, like he did with the protests in Iran.
Certainly that's an option, but not a very good one, it would make Obama appear weak and indecisive.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7345 on: February 07, 2011, 12:20:40 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2011, 02:06:13 PM by pbrower2a »

Tennessee (Vanderbilt University/The Tennessean):

44% Approve
54% Disapprove

With 710 respondents to the Vanderbilt Poll, the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7 %. The poll was conducted by calling a random sample of landline telephone numbers over a period of seven days, from Jan. 17 to Jan. 23.

John Geer, professor of political science, and Josh Clinton, associate professor of political science, co-directed the poll.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110207/NEWS02/102070343/Tennesseans-skeptical-President-Obama-Sarah-Palin?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

Higher approval than the vote was in 2008. Tennessee looks contestable in 2012. Should President Obama pick up the Clinton voters who rejected Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004
and were leery of him in 2008, then 2012 has the potential for an Obama landslide with over 400 electoral votes.  PPP may poll Tennessee next week, so there could be corroboration. The GOP absolutely needs this state, and at this stage the state is shaky.  

Sarah Palin is beginning to seem a joke, as President Obama beats her handily in this state. Southern white people may still be leery of voting for a sane and liberal black man, but they might be even more leery of voting for a crazy white woman.



 




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 53
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 55
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  



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« Reply #7346 on: February 07, 2011, 02:48:04 PM »

One thing I noticed about Obama's dip in the polls (at least in Gallup), ALL of the decline in support from Obama came from independents, Democrats and Republicans have remained constant in their approval of Obama in the past few days.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7347 on: February 07, 2011, 04:34:40 PM »

One thing I noticed about Obama's dip in the polls (at least in Gallup), ALL of the decline in support from Obama came from independents, Democrats and Republicans have remained constant in their approval of Obama in the past few days.

Probably Egypt.  The President really can do nothing.  Almost everything is up to a capricious dictator  who can't decide whether he wants to hold onto power at risk of his life -- or flee. 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7348 on: February 07, 2011, 05:37:13 PM »

One thing I noticed about Obama's dip in the polls (at least in Gallup), ALL of the decline in support from Obama came from independents, Democrats and Republicans have remained constant in their approval of Obama in the past few days.

Probably Egypt.  The President really can do nothing.  Almost everything is up to a capricious dictator  who can't decide whether he wants to hold onto power at risk of his life -- or flee. 

That is interesting. It almost implies that the partisans on both sides get that Obama was doing just about anything that could be done, but those people in the middle think that a President has a magical power to make everything better. It explains why some independents swings around so much based on right track/wrong track, based on assumption that the Pres could fix economy overnight if he just really tried harder
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izixs
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« Reply #7349 on: February 07, 2011, 06:57:31 PM »

That is interesting. It almost implies that the partisans on both sides get that Obama was doing just about anything that could be done, but those people in the middle think that a President has a magical power to make everything better. It explains why some independents swings around so much based on right track/wrong track, based on assumption that the Pres could fix economy overnight if he just really tried harder

It reminds me of that one scene in Family Guy in the Lois vs. Adam West debate all over again. The President is not a wizard folks, quit pretending he is.
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