The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8475 on: August 09, 2011, 03:46:41 PM »

Technically speaking this is not a Presidential approval poll, so its results will not appear on my approval map. But it has some interesting consequences.

Now, North Carolina:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CONC_0809.pdf

Note: the poll for North Carolina is on the same page as that for Colorado, only far down the page.

Conclusions for a state that the Republicans dare not lose in 2012:

1. North Carolinians don't quote give a plurality of dislike for this deal, but they dislike it much more than they like it.

2. They seem to exculpate President Obama and blame Dubya and Congressional Republicans, if not by as wide a margin as Coloradans do. But Republicans have their work cut out to hold onto the Tar Heel State.

3. They want a stimulus, but just don't call it a stimulus.

4. People want the super-rich to face higher taxes to solve the deficit and don't believe in "supply-side" economics anymore.

5. President Obama can get away with offering to renounce the Debt Ceiling commitments if he must... but the Republicans are stuck with the consequences in the event of a failure.

6. Republicans can expect to lose some of Congressional seats in North Carolina in 2012. It is impossible to be stuck with a raw deal for constituents -- or worse, opposing an unpopular  piece of legislation by claiming that it isn't hard-line enough -- and not face very bad effects.

7. PPP did not show a split between McCain and Obama voters here.

If things remain the same in North Carolina as this poll suggests, North Carolina is going to offer ugly results for Republicans in 2012. President Obama doesn't need North Carolina to win in 2012, but he can hardly fail to be re-elected if he wins it.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #8476 on: August 09, 2011, 04:10:35 PM »

The polling you posted does not adequately back up all the points you are making.

I especially would like to know which of those numbers backs up #5 for both CO and NC. Your number 2s seem switched and both seem to exaggerate the results. Number three is also a conclusion that I don't see a basis for. Four is nothing new. 6 seems presumptive, especially when redistricting isn't even been started in CO and the only people worried about losing seats in NC is the Democrats. Brad Miller is even thinking of running in the fourth against fellow Dem Brad Miller, according to "On The Record", a local political show.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8477 on: August 09, 2011, 05:51:08 PM »

The polling you posted does not adequately back up all the points you are making.

I especially would like to know which of those numbers backs up #5 for both CO and NC. Your number 2s seem switched and both seem to exaggerate the results. Number three is also a conclusion that I don't see a basis for. Four is nothing new. 6 seems presumptive, especially when redistricting isn't even been started in CO and the only people worried about losing seats in NC is the Democrats. Brad Miller is even thinking of running in the fourth against fellow Dem Brad Miller, according to "On The Record", a local political show.


It doesn't take much of a margin to swing the balance of power in the House -- as shown in 2010. Sure, redistricting can make things more difficult for Democrats -- but such redistricting damage that Republicans did to Democrats after 2000 has probably been done as much as possible.

My #5 is a presumption that if the Deficit Ceiling does more harm than good, then President Obama can more easily back away from it than can Republicans. This is one of few pieces of non-trivial legislation that Republicans have successfully passed in both houses. It is a GOP objective, and something that the President recognized as the best possible deal for the time. He can run against it if it fails, and Republicans are stuck with it.   If the President finds that his supporters want some enhanced public spending and so does the public, then guess who is out of luck.

I;m guessing on details within the states. I have never been in either, but I can read statistical evidence.

Sure, Q6 looks almost like a push poll question, so I hope that I make little of it. Mercifully it comes toward the end. The results of Q7 are likely exaggerated to some extent, but not enough to discount a 28% gap (Colorado) or a 21% gap (North Carolina).

In any event, it looks like trouble for anyone running against President Obama in 2012. As for effects on Congress -- 1  Republican loss here, 2 there, and 3 somewhere else ... add enough of them and one has enough seats shifting to create a Democratic majority. It's something that I can't rule out overall. Colorado and North Carolina are dissimilar enough that they don't exaggerate some effect related to themselves alone.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8478 on: August 09, 2011, 06:04:11 PM »


Obama is now tied for his Gallup low point.  Even though it is late, at this point it is still relatively high as a trough.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #8479 on: August 09, 2011, 06:06:14 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2011, 06:09:26 PM by Senator North Carolina Yankee »

@pbrower
I wasn't talking about the questions in the poll. I was talking about your "points", "interpretations", etc.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #8480 on: August 09, 2011, 07:20:35 PM »

Will Obama top 50% ever again in Gallup? I know 15months is a long time in politics, but barring some sort of miracle, I think he's done for now.

Again, I maintain he's very lucky to have not touched the upper 30s yet. Imagine if this was Bush....
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Penelope
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« Reply #8481 on: August 09, 2011, 09:25:00 PM »

Will Obama top 50% ever again in Gallup? I know 15months is a long time in politics, but barring some sort of miracle, I think he's done for now.

Again, I maintain he's very lucky to have not touched the upper 30s yet. Imagine if this was Bush....

Yes, he will.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8482 on: August 10, 2011, 05:04:05 AM »

New Jersey (Monmouth):

Adults: 54-37
Registered Voters: 52-39

The Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll was conducted by telephone with 802 New
Jersey adults and 730 registered voters from August 3 to 8, 2011. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.5 percent.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP40_1.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8483 on: August 10, 2011, 05:09:04 AM »

Will Obama top 50% ever again in Gallup? I know 15months is a long time in politics, but barring some sort of miracle, I think he's done for now.

Again, I maintain he's very lucky to have not touched the upper 30s yet. Imagine if this was Bush....

Forget Gallup. Gallup is probably on the lowest of low ranges for Obama right now.

Better follow the results of PPP. They have a proven record so far.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #8484 on: August 10, 2011, 06:14:42 AM »

I have examined the most recent surveys on the Obama Job Peformance, and find them all questionable.

The Gallup survey of 1500 Adults from August 6 through 8, which has a 40% approval to 50% disapproval, has an unusually large “undecided” group of 10%.

The Rasmussen poll for the same dates of 1500 Likely Voters, which has a 45% approval to 55% disapproval, suffers from having too few (actually, none) in the “undecided” category.

The Opinion Research survey of 1008 Adults from August 5 through 7, has a 44% approval to a 54% disapproval, the most ‘reasonable’ (in my judgment) of them all.

The Marist survey of 807 Registered Voters from August 2 through 4 has 44% approval to 46% disapproval, and is doubly flawed. Not only does it have an unusually large “undecided” category (particularly for Registered voters), but, examining the composition of the group, it is weighted for Democrats and against Republicans.   If a more realistic weighting were used it would have a 41% job approval to a 51% job disapproval.

The PPP survey of 1002 Registered Voters for August 4 through 7, indicated a job approval higher than any of the other polls (47%) and a disapproval of only 50%.  While the “not sure” of 3% is quite reasonable, the survey is heavily tilted Democrat (as is to be expected).  If adjusted for realistic breakout, the approval would be 44% approval and 53% disapproval.

The job approval/disapproval average at Pollster.com is 51.5% disapprove to 43.6 approve.

The job approval/disapproval average at Real Clear Politics is 49.8% disapprove to 43.7% approve.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #8485 on: August 10, 2011, 08:32:04 AM »

Latest Gallup approval ratings map!

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J. J.
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« Reply #8486 on: August 10, 2011, 08:47:07 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, -2.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

It, in theory, could be a bad sample, but I doubt it.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #8487 on: August 10, 2011, 11:25:22 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, -2.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

It, in theory, could be a bad sample, but I doubt it.

Agreed, I see Obama staying in this range for the next few months. It'll be hard for him to break out of the melancholy.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8488 on: August 10, 2011, 03:10:51 PM »

Gallup, meh:

Favorable: 41% +1

Unfavorable:  51% -1

No troughing yet.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #8489 on: August 10, 2011, 03:26:05 PM »

Gallup, meh:

Favorable: 41% +1

Unfavorable:  51% -1

No troughing yet.


Huh?
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Penelope
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« Reply #8490 on: August 10, 2011, 03:27:59 PM »

Gallup, meh:

Favorable: 41% +1

Unfavorable:  51% -1

No troughing yet.


Huh?

Obama has not toughed yet - the Bradley effect will soon come into play.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8491 on: August 10, 2011, 03:44:22 PM »
« Edited: August 10, 2011, 05:30:01 PM by pbrower2a »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf

......

The President may be underwater in approval, but no imaginable republican nominee is close to defeating him.  This poll demonstrates how it is possible for the President to be underwater in the polls in a state yet have a commanding lead over every imaginable opponent in a state.  Americans are down on almost all politicians, but generally less down on the President. Maybe they are just getting fussier about results, which is a very good thing for America.

President Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by almost the same margin as that by which he defeated John McCain in 2008, but win this state in a landslide against anyone else.   

Monmouth, New Jersey:

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http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP40_1.pdf


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 135
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    55
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 135
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    55
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 75
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 35
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  44
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  
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J. J.
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« Reply #8492 on: August 10, 2011, 04:39:07 PM »

Gallup, meh:

Favorable: 41% +1

Unfavorable:  51% -1

No troughing yet.


Huh?

Obama has not toughed yet - the Bradley effect will soon come into play.

Yesterday Obama's was tied for the lowest rate on Gallup.  Most presidents hit a low point, then start building, but there is an absolute bottom, a trough; after that, they rebound.  Obama has not troughed yet.  His numbers are still relatively high.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8493 on: August 11, 2011, 12:09:06 AM »

J.J. can apparently predict the future now as well.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8494 on: August 11, 2011, 08:34:56 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

Outside chance this is a bad sample.

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J. J.
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« Reply #8495 on: August 11, 2011, 01:35:08 PM »
« Edited: August 11, 2011, 01:37:24 PM by J. J. »

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  51

Disapprove:  41

Bad even for Gallup?  Smiley  No, somebody probably screwed up the graphic; their line graph showed the numbers reversed.



J.J. can apparently predict the future now as well.

Apparently, since he didn't increase.  I used my mystical abilities to divine the result.  (In actuality, I just looked at his graphs.)

And I should say "out of the trough."
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J. J.
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« Reply #8496 on: August 11, 2011, 02:13:05 PM »

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  51

Disapprove:  41

Bad even for Gallup?  Smiley  No, somebody probably screwed up the graphic; their line graph showed the numbers reversed.


They fixed it.

Approve:  41%, u

Disapprove:  51%, u.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8497 on: August 12, 2011, 05:08:12 AM »

New York State (Quinnipiac):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45% Approve (-12)
49% Disapprove (+11)

Voters split 48 - 46 percent on whether President Obama deserves reelection and say 49 - 34 percent they would vote for him over an unnamed Republican.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1636
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #8498 on: August 12, 2011, 05:09:29 AM »

New York State (Quinnipiac):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45% Approve (-12)
49% Disapprove (+11)

Voters split 48 - 46 percent on whether President Obama deserves reelection and say 49 - 34 percent they would vote for him over an unnamed Republican.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1636

Wat.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8499 on: August 12, 2011, 05:11:54 AM »

New York State (Quinnipiac):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45% Approve (-12)
49% Disapprove (+11)

Voters split 48 - 46 percent on whether President Obama deserves reelection and say 49 - 34 percent they would vote for him over an unnamed Republican.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1636

Wat.

It will be very interesting to see what pbrower does with his map now ... Wink
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