Spanish elections and politics

[Zinneke]

^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC

Do you think the traditional Baix Llogrebat and non-catalanist industrial parts in Barcelona comarca will vote PSC or switch to Arrimadas and C's?

Also the vote transfers seem to suggest they are benefiting from CatCom's collapse as you suggest.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171205/433434206682/elecciones-catalanas-sangria-votos-xavier-garcia-albiol-ines-arrimadas-cis.html

[Mike88]

Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.

[Former President tack50]

^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC

Do you think the traditional Baix Llogrebat non-catalanist industrial parts in Barcelona comarca will vote PSC or switch to Arrimadas and C's?

Also the vote transfers seem to suggest they are benefiting from CatCom's collapse as you suggest.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171205/433434206682/elecciones-catalanas-sangria-votos-xavier-garcia-albiol-ines-arrimadas-cis.html

They already switched in 2015 for the most part. I could certainly see them switching back to PSC though.

[Former President tack50]

Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.

To be fair, unless Portugal also has some secessionist region I wouldn't read much into this regional election. Spain's and Portugal's politics are somewhat comparable I guess, particularly in non-nationalist communities. But definitely not Catalan politics.

In theory a PSC-ERC alliance wouldn't be that difficult or unprecedented. Catalonia was ruled by a PSC-ERC-ICV allliance between 2003 and 2010 after all. I'm not sure if they would be able to work together. Remember that a constitutional reform would need the support not just of PSOE and Podemos but also PP and a referendum in all of Spain. So support in exchange for reforms is unlikely.

For all what's worth PP has been quite negative about reforms, saying that "they can't be to make secessionists happy" and the like. And even if it somehow passed the referendum might be a challenge and the campaign would be very ugly. It seems like the secessionists have sparked some sort of renaissance of Spanish nationalism.

I agree that PSC will be very important. But it seems that the most likely scenario if secessionists don't get their majority is a new election some time in early autumn of 2018. In that case the hypothetical coalitions would be:

-Secessionists+Podemos abstention. Very viable if ERC wins the election and picks their candidate. However that would certify Podemos' death in most of Spain so they'll be careful. If Puigdemont somehow manages to lead the secessionists it won't happen

-ERC-PSC-CeC: Somewhat viable. I can see ERC going for it, but PSC would have to at least accept a legal referendum which would cause caos and infighting inside PSOE (again). And of course numbers don't seem favourable anyways. They might get CUP to abstain but really I doubt it.

-PSC-CeC-Cs-PP: Somewhat viable if PSC somehow becomes the largest unionist party. I could see them being just left wing enough and just unionist enough to get Cs, PP's and Podemos' support. But still unlikely. Impossible if Cs is the largest party.

[FrancoAgo]

PSC + ERC with Podemos would be enough for a majority...

[Velasco]

Forget about a coalition between ERC, PSC and CatComú-Podem. PSC leader Miquel Iceta said that his party will never make a separatist president. ERC secretary general Marta Rovira said a coalition pact with PSC is impossible. Rovira is the ERC de-facto candidate, given that Oriol Junqueras is behind the bars.

Also, it's worth noting that one of the main arguments of Catalan separatists is that Spain is impossible to reform. Furthermore, Artur Mas set the procés in motion to keep the possibility of a new 'tripartit' (PSC-ERC-ICV coalition) at bay. Neoliberal Mas was implementing harsh budget cuts and was becoming very unpopular. Keep in mind that.

[Mike88]

Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.

To be fair, unless Portugal also has some secessionist region I wouldn't read much into this regional election. Spain's and Portugal's politics are somewhat comparable I guess, particularly in non-nationalist communities. But definitely not Catalan politics.

In theory a PSC-ERC alliance wouldn't be that difficult or unprecedented. Catalonia was ruled by a PSC-ERC-ICV allliance between 2003 and 2010 after all. I'm not sure if they would be able to work together. Remember that a constitutional reform would need the support not just of PSOE and Podemos but also PP and a referendum in all of Spain. So support in exchange for reforms is unlikely.

For all what's worth PP has been quite negative about reforms, saying that "they can't be to make secessionists happy" and the like. And even if it somehow passed the referendum might be a challenge and the campaign would be very ugly. It seems like the secessionists have sparked some sort of renaissance of Spanish nationalism.

I agree that PSC will be very important. But it seems that the most likely scenario if secessionists don't get their majority is a new election some time in early autumn of 2018. In that case the hypothetical coalitions would be:

-Secessionists+Podemos abstention. Very viable if ERC wins the election and picks their candidate. However that would certify Podemos' death in most of Spain so they'll be careful. If Puigdemont somehow manages to lead the secessionists it won't happen

-ERC-PSC-CeC: Somewhat viable. I can see ERC going for it, but PSC would have to at least accept a legal referendum which would cause caos and infighting inside PSOE (again). And of course numbers don't seem favourable anyways. They might get CUP to abstain but really I doubt it.

-PSC-CeC-Cs-PP: Somewhat viable if PSC somehow becomes the largest unionist party. I could see them being just left wing enough and just unionist enough to get Cs, PP's and Podemos' support. But still unlikely. Impossible if Cs is the largest party.

What worry us, here, is the economic impact the Catalonia crisis can have in the Spanish economy, that would ultimately affect deeply Portugal.

Nonetheless, very interesting coalition scenarios. We'll see how this unfolds.

[Zanas]

The person responsible for how the parties are ordered around this graphic by decreasing voting intention instead of, you know, the relevant stuff, should be fired, then shot.

[Mike88]

Metroscopia poll for El País:



Polling still shows a close race between ERC and C's, while Puigdemont's JxCat seems to be falling. PP is at record low levels. I'm skeptical about turnout, 80% on a week day seems very high, IMO.

Also, no exit polls on election day.

[Former President tack50]

Well, considering that today was the last day to publish polls we actually got a ton of polls that will appear tomorrow in newspapers (though they seem to have been leaked). Here is the final poll done by every polling company:

20 Minutos

ERC 33-35
CS 32-34
JXCAT 24-26
PSC 20-21
CEC 7-8
CUP 7-8
PP 6-7

http://electomania.es/encuesta-de-20minutos-es-erc-y-ciudadanos-lucharan-por-la-victoria/

NC Report for La Razón

ERC 34 escaños / 22.4%
CS 33 / 21.8%
JxC 25 / 16.1%
PSC 21 / 15.9%
CEC 9 / 7.6%
PP 8 / 7.5%
CUP 7 / 5.8%


http://electomania.es/nc-report-para-la-razon-todos-lejos-de-la-mayoria/

GAD3 for ABC

Cs: 23.2%  (31-32 escaños)
ERC: 20.3% (29-31)
JxCat; 19.5% (29-30)
PSC: 16.3% (22-23)
CeC: 7.5% (8 )
PP: 6.2% (7-8)
CUP: 5.6% (6)

http://electomania.es/abc-arrimadas-ganaria-en-votos-y-escanos/

Sigma Dos for El Mundo



Gesop for El Periódico de Catalunya



Top Position





Podemos internal (from yesterday)



Elnacional.cat (from 2 days ago) (tracker)

[Former President tack50]

My analysis would be that in terms of who will come first it's probably too close to call, with Cs probably being favoured in the popular vote but ERC probably being favoured in terms of seats.

As for the rest, JxCat will take the third place, the question being how close can it get to Cs and ERC. PSC will regain votes and around 21 seats. And finally, there's a 3 way tie for last, with Podemos being slightly better off than the other 2. CUP will lose a little but PP will actually lose half their voters. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost all their non Barcelona seats (though I think they will at least hold 1 in Tarragona)

In terms of blocks, secessionists will almost certainly win both in votes and in seats, though as for whether they will lose their majority it's a tossup.

Finally, apparently there's no exit poll because the last one, for the 2016 general election was ridiculously inaccurate. Polling errors in standard polls are more or less acceptable (within certain margins), but missing in an exit poll, particularly by such a huge and crucial margin was really bad. So IMO good riddance. It's not like we need them, Spain seems to be pretty fast at counting votes. We should get like 95% counted by midnight. Here's a comparison of the exit poll compared to the actual election if anyone cares:

Exit poll





Reality:



They only really got right CC, PNV and PSOE. Everyone else was off in some way or another.

[jaichind]

If the pro-Independence forces could not win a majority then which side would the Podemos bloc back?  I cannot imagine Podemos going with a bloc that includes PP.   I assume they are more aligned with the  pro-Independence bloc.  If they do join up with the pro-Independence bloc will they make not going ahead with Independence a condition of their support? 

[Former President tack50]

If the pro-Independence forces could not win a majority then which side would the Podemos bloc back?  I cannot imagine Podemos going with a bloc that includes PP.   I assume they are more aligned with the  pro-Independence bloc.  If they do join up with the pro-Independence bloc will they make not going ahead with Independence a condition of their support?  

I don't know. Podemos wants an ERC-PSC-Podemos left wing ambiguous government but neither ERC nor PSC want that. I guess they could abstain, and just allow the side with the most seats (almost certainly nationalists) to govern, but that would be risky for their prospects outside nationalist communities. It might hurt the party a lot outside Catalonia/Basque Country/Navarra and maybe 2 or 3 others.

[Former President tack50]

Also, we got a few more polls from other companies:

MyWord for Cadena SER



Invymark for La Sexta



Elnacional.cat (tracker)



As someone said, seems like Puigdemont's rise has stopped and CUP and PP are in a dead heat, with Podemos not too much above them.

[Former President tack50]

The last polls from the polling companies that hadn't released their final poll yet:

Sociométrica for El Español



GAD3 for ABC



ERC internal



The final polling average ends up being this:

[Former President tack50]

Mysterious Andorran fruit shops strike again!

Mysterious Andorran fruit shop poll (GESOP for El Periòdic de Andorra)

🍋 Junquera 22,1€ (34-35u)
🍊 21,4€ (27-28u)
🥑 AguaCATS 17,5€ (25-26)
🍓 iFresas 17,1€ (23-24)
🍆 BroColau 8,5€ (9-10)
💧 Lanjalbiol 5,4€ (6-7)
🍌 cupNarias 6,1€ (7-8)

http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/primer-sondeo-elecciones-catalanas-21d.html

They are facing some tough competition from Scottish fruit stands though

Mysterious Scottish fruit shop poll (Feedback for The National) (probably the same tracker as before)

🍊 24,18€ (33u)
🍋 Junquera 20,89€ (30u)
🥑 AguaCATS 19,49€ (28-30u)
🍓 iFresas 13,67€ (17-19u)
🍆 BroColau 7,08€ (8-9u)
🍌 cupNarias 8,28€ (10u)
💧 Lanjalbiol 5,64€ (6u)

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15777408.Stunning_Catalan_poll_predicts_majority_for_pro_independence_parties/

[Former President tack50]

Found a website which tells you who you should vote for in the next Catalan election.

www.elteuvot.org

Anyways my results were:

PSC: 73%
Cs: 71%
CUP: 69%!
Podemos: 68%
ERC: 63%
PP: 57%
JxCat: 51%

[Former President tack50]

Also, El País did some probabilistic model about the Catalan election:









https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/12/18/ratio/1513610647_109254.html

Basically, it seems like secessionists getting a majority is slighly more likely than not, but basically a coin flip, a left wing majority is quite unlikely and a constitutionalist majority is a pipedream.

[Velasco]

Found a website which tells you who you should vote for in the next Catalan election.

www.elteuvot.org

This test is bull...t

 My results:

CatComu-Podem 89%
CUP 84%
ERC 83%
PSC 79%
Cs 61%
JxCat 60%
PP 37%

In neither case I'd vote for the CUP or ERC. I could vote for CatComu-Podem or the PSC.

[FrancoAgo]

My results
Podem 81%
ERC 80%
CUP 78%
PSC 77%
JxC 63%
C's 54%
PP 46%

I could vote for one of first 3, idk enough for choice one

[RodPresident]

CeC: 77%
ERC: 75%
CUP: 74%
PSC: 69%
JxC: 61%
C's: 59%
PP: 40%
Probably, I'd vote for CeC-P, but in order to prevent any embarrasments to Podemos, I'd vote to CUP to ensure an majority against C's and P and to push ERC-JxC coalition to left.

[jaichind]

When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?

[Mike88]

When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?

No exit polls apparently. Polls close at 8pm (7pm London time). Official results site.

[Former President tack50]

When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?

Polls close at 8pm Spanish time. (7pm London time, 2pm New York time)

There will be no formal exit polls, but I just saw on TV that there might be some unofficial ones in Twitter or newspapers. Someone from La Vanguardia said they would have some estimation.

As for links to results, Mike88 already posted them

For all what's worth here are the final illegal polls:



The one with a graph was done by Netquest for L'independant (apparently a regional French newspaper based in Perpignan). The other 2 were for Andorra and Scotland.

[swl]

There is only one thing to look at: will the independists reach the majority of 68 seats? The polls have been consistently tights, with them getting between 65 and 70 seats, so there is a lot of suspense. I am looking forward to the result!
I wonder how the date of the vote  (on a working day instead of Sunday) will influence the result.