Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[pbrower2a]

That 43-28 intensity gap between "strongly disapprove" and "strongly approve" is going to be his undoing one day.

Around election time it will be obvious. People canvassing for President Trump will encounter much hostility. That might not be so obvious in August, but as the leaves start to turn, the discouragement will cripple his campaign. There might also be fewer canvassers as those come from the "strongly approve" category.

Canvassing can turn out votes. It can get people to recognize that there might good cause to vote in ways contrary to what is expected. It may have turned a nearly-even Presidential election in 2008 into a near-landslide and given a victory to a struggling President in 2012. It may have been the difference between what looked like a Clinton landslide in 2016 into something in reach for Donald Trump, who had an unlikely and unseen army of supporters.

It may be predictive blindness on my part, but I cannot see President Trump recovering, let alone expanding, his base in 2020. He is vindictive, cruel, and insensitive. He chooses Cabinet officers who see nothing wrong with offending the sensibilities of a near-majority due to extremism and arrogance. He has achieved nothing except to satisfy his base. Maybe people can come to like that.

If you think that he can prevail against an incredibly-weak or an allegedly-extreme opponent, then think again. That's what Jimmy Carter's people thought of Ronald Reagan.  To be sure, Carter and Trump show very different problems as President, but I can't see a difference in effect yet that puts Trump in reach of re-election.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos tracker (5-day rolling), June 3-7, 1583 adults

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

It's actually 38.4/55.8, so closer to -17 than -18.

[pbrower2a]

Back to where he has been at his worst. Can he go lower? I doubt it. He's got too many cultists behind him who would believe him no matter what.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Back to where he has been at his worst. Can he go lower? I doubt it. He's got too many cultists behind him who would believe him no matter what.

Trump's cult is no bigger than any other President. It's no surprise that his approval is as "high" as it is when the economy is doing pretty good. Most people don't obsessively follow every news story and care that Pruitt did some stuff or Trump said some mean thing. They tend to look at the overall story. And for most people... they are about as good or slightly better off than they were in 2016, with a marginally bigger pocketbook thanks to rising wages + tax cuts.

You'll see how small his cult really is if things actually start going south for people. His approvals may go down to about 25-29... which is exactly around Bush's levels.

[Comrade Funk]

Back to where he has been at his worst. Can he go lower? I doubt it. He's got too many cultists behind him who would believe him no matter what.

Trump's cult is no bigger than any other President. It's no surprise that his approval is as "high" as it is when the economy is doing pretty good. Most people don't obsessively follow every news story and care that Pruitt did some stuff or Trump said some mean thing. They tend to look at the overall story. And for most people... they are about as good or slightly better off than they were in 2016, with a marginally bigger pocketbook thanks to rising wages + tax cuts.

You'll see how small his cult really is if things actually start going south for people. His approvals may go down to about 25-29... which is exactly around Bush's levels.

Trump's cult is far larger than any other major American leader. Anyone else does half the sh**t he's done they'd be gone. A result of decades of anti-intellectualism.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Back to where he has been at his worst. Can he go lower? I doubt it. He's got too many cultists behind him who would believe him no matter what.

Trump's cult is no bigger than any other President. It's no surprise that his approval is as "high" as it is when the economy is doing pretty good. Most people don't obsessively follow every news story and care that Pruitt did some stuff or Trump said some mean thing. They tend to look at the overall story. And for most people... they are about as good or slightly better off than they were in 2016, with a marginally bigger pocketbook thanks to rising wages + tax cuts.

You'll see how small his cult really is if things actually start going south for people. His approvals may go down to about 25-29... which is exactly around Bush's levels.

Trump's cult is far larger than any other major American leader. Anyone else does half the sh**t he's done they'd be gone. A result of decades of anti-intellectualism.

Nope. His strong approvals are no higher than Bush's, Obamas, or anyone elses.

You say that Trump is so obviously bad... but most Americans have been doing better in the past 2 years than they were before 2016. It's easy to see why GOP partisans are mostly sticking with the President when their pockets are fatter and the economy is improving. Many don't like some specific Trump action.... but the USA is doing better than it was before 2016. Most people who approve of Trump now would approve of Bush, or would approve of Romney, etc.

I guarantee you if things actually starting going bad (aka, the economy, not mean tweets or Trump says another stupid thing), a lot of Trump's approvers (many of which only "slightly approve") will start to waver.

Bill Clinton had an over 60% approval when he constantly had dumb scandals and porked woman cuz the economy was doing so damn well that nobody gave a hoot. Trump is similar to Bill in the kind of garbage he can get away with cuz he has a good economy (and given that Bill's approval was 60% and Trump's is about 40%, clearly people are responding to Trump's behavior).

[Inmate Trump]

...but most Americans have been doing better in the past 2 years than they were before 2016. It's easy to see why GOP partisans are mostly sticking with the President when their pockets are fatter and the economy is improving. Many don't like some specific Trump action.... but the USA is doing better than it was before 2016.

Name something significant that Trump has done to contribute to the economy.  What specific action of meaningfulness has he done that suddenly changed the (already steadily growing) economy?  Really.  I'm very eager to read your response.

[pbrower2a]

Back to where he has been at his worst. Can he go lower? I doubt it. He's got too many cultists behind him who would believe him no matter what.

Trump's cult is no bigger than any other President. It's no surprise that his approval is as "high" as it is when the economy is doing pretty good. Most people don't obsessively follow every news story and care that Pruitt did some stuff or Trump said some mean thing. They tend to look at the overall story. And for most people... they are about as good or slightly better off than they were in 2016, with a marginally bigger pocketbook thanks to rising wages + tax cuts.

You'll see how small his cult really is if things actually start going south for people. His approvals may go down to about 25-29... which is exactly around Bush's levels.

Trump's cult is far larger than any other major American leader. Anyone else does half the sh**t he's done they'd be gone. A result of decades of anti-intellectualism.

Nope. His strong approvals are no higher than Bush's, Obamas, or anyone elses.

You say that Trump is so obviously bad... but most Americans have been doing better in the past 2 years than they were before 2016. It's easy to see why GOP partisans are mostly sticking with the President when their pockets are fatter and the economy is improving. Many don't like some specific Trump action.... but the USA is doing better than it was before 2016. Most people who approve of Trump now would approve of Bush, or would approve of Romney, etc.

The damage of bad leadership takes several years to manifest itself in failed wars and in corrupt booms that go bust. The second Gulf War seemed to go well enough for a while. The corrupt boom in real estate speculation under Dubya took six years before it imploded. Do you remember the big hustle of Dubya's "Ownership Society"? People were enticed to buy houses that they could never afford with loans with negative amortization and balloon payments down the line that the borrowers would never be able to pay. Unable to pay the huge down payment two years later, they would default on a house rising in value... and the lender would get a profit from selling a house of increased valuation to another customer. That was more profitable than waiting for regular payments to come in from someone who successfully pays off a mortgage. In the end there is nobody able to buy the property, and the lender gets stuck with a foreclosed property no longer marketable. When that happens often enough, the real estate bubble collapses.

The hustle with Donald Trump is rising rents. Eventually people end up spending everything on rent and having to scavenge in garbage cans. That too goes bust. 
 

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Rural areas will get hit hardest and earliest with high input prices (especially energy) and low commodity prices. I see that happening already. Farmers and ranchers, usually a conservative segment of the political order, will be the first to feel the hit from the consequences of the President's trade war. If the causes were not quite the same, Rural America went from reliably conservative to being in strong support of the New Deal of Franklin Roosevelt.

Let us also remember that well-educated people might have sympathy for people of limited learning, but they also have unwavering contempt for people of pompous ignorance such as that of Sarah Palin or Donald Trump. Note the thread on the Republican Party treating ignorance and superstition as virtues. Note well that well-educated people voted for Barack Obama, and that the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 will be the one most capable of attaching to the legacy of Barack Obama. Such a leader will fault Republicans and well-heeled special interests for the failure to enact the Obama agenda in full.

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Bill Clinton had a sane foreign policy. His economic policy (of course you can give Republican majorities at the time some credit) led to budget surpluses. The Whitewater scandal went nowhere. Most people excoriated his sexual dalliances.

Today we see careers ruined in the media and politics (probably academia and commerce as well) for sexual misconduct. Think of Al Franken, whom Democrats supported and gave up on. His sex scandals are far less severe than those of Donald Trump.

Most people see the current boom resulting from Obama -- not Trump. We have a nearly-nine-year boom in stock-market valuations. That is unusually, freakishly long. President Trump excoriates his predecessor at every turn.

Donald Trump causes me to question whether being an American is so great anymore. I have questions about his fundamental decencies, including respect for the rule of law. He governs in a way that one can interpret as either despotic or dictatorial, depending on interpretation; either one is contemptible. He insists upon winning no matter what cost others pay -- and I question more whether he will allow us the free election that we have come to recognize as a norm. His vituperative attacks on opponents and backsliders suggest a tyrant or his propagandists or hanging judges.

The best thing that I can say of the American political system is that it is not easy for him to transform into a vehicle of despotic rule. Maybe his sordid personality will fail at his objective of America as a reflection of his vile self.     

[136or142]

Back to where he has been at his worst. Can he go lower? I doubt it. He's got too many cultists behind him who would believe him no matter what.

Trump's cult is no bigger than any other President. It's no surprise that his approval is as "high" as it is when the economy is doing pretty good. Most people don't obsessively follow every news story and care that Pruitt did some stuff or Trump said some mean thing. They tend to look at the overall story. And for most people... they are about as good or slightly better off than they were in 2016, with a marginally bigger pocketbook thanks to rising wages + tax cuts.

You'll see how small his cult really is if things actually start going south for people. His approvals may go down to about 25-29... which is exactly around Bush's levels.

Trump's cult is far larger than any other major American leader. Anyone else does half the sh**t he's done they'd be gone. A result of decades of anti-intellectualism.

Nope. His strong approvals are no higher than Bush's, Obamas, or anyone elses.

You say that Trump is so obviously bad... but most Americans have been doing better in the past 2 years than they were before 2016. It's easy to see why GOP partisans are mostly sticking with the President when their pockets are fatter and the economy is improving. Many don't like some specific Trump action.... but the USA is doing better than it was before 2016. Most people who approve of Trump now would approve of Bush, or would approve of Romney, etc.

The damage of bad leadership takes several years to manifest itself in failed wars and in corrupt booms that go bust. The second Gulf War seemed to go well enough for a while. The corrupt boom in real estate speculation under Dubya took six years before it imploded. Do you remember the big hustle of Dubya's "Ownership Society"? People were enticed to buy houses that they could never afford with loans with negative amortization and balloon payments down the line that the borrowers would never be able to pay. Unable to pay the huge down payment two years later, they would default on a house rising in value... and the lender would get a profit from selling a house of increased valuation to another customer. That was more profitable than waiting for regular payments to come in from someone who successfully pays off a mortgage. In the end there is nobody able to buy the property, and the lender gets stuck with a foreclosed property no longer marketable. When that happens often enough, the real estate bubble collapses.

The hustle with Donald Trump is rising rents. Eventually people end up spending everything on rent and having to scavenge in garbage cans. That too goes bust.  
 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rural areas will get hit hardest and earliest with high input prices (especially energy) and low commodity prices. I see that happening already. Farmers and ranchers, usually a conservative segment of the political order, will be the first to feel the hit from the consequences of the President's trade war. If the causes were not quite the same, Rural America went from reliably conservative to being in strong support of the New Deal of Franklin Roosevelt.

Let us also remember that well-educated people might have sympathy for people of limited learning, but they also have unwavering contempt for people of pompous ignorance such as that of Sarah Palin or Donald Trump. Note the thread on the Republican Party treating ignorance and superstition as virtues. Note well that well-educated people voted for Barack Obama, and that the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 will be the one most capable of attaching to the legacy of Barack Obama. Such a leader will fault Republicans and well-heeled special interests for the failure to enact the Obama agenda in full.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bill Clinton had a sane foreign policy. His economic policy (of course you can give Republican majorities at the time some credit) led to budget surpluses. The Whitewater scandal went nowhere. Most people excoriated his sexual dalliances.

Today we see careers ruined in the media and politics (probably academia and commerce as well) for sexual misconduct. Think of Al Franken, whom Democrats supported and gave up on. His sex scandals are far less severe than those of Donald Trump.

Most people see the current boom resulting from Obama -- not Trump. We have a nearly-nine-year boom in stock-market valuations. That is unusually, freakishly long. President Trump excoriates his predecessor at every turn.

Donald Trump causes me to question whether being an American is so great anymore. I have questions about his fundamental decencies, including respect for the rule of law. He governs in a way that one can interpret as either despotic or dictatorial, depending on interpretation; either one is contemptible. He insists upon winning no matter what cost others pay -- and I question more whether he will allow us the free election that we have come to recognize as a norm. His vituperative attacks on opponents and backsliders suggest a tyrant or his propagandists or hanging judges.

The best thing that I can say of the American political system is that it is not easy for him to transform into a vehicle of despotic rule. Maybe his sordid personality will fail at his objective of America as a reflection of his vile self.      

This, to me, is the post of the year along with pbrower2a's post on right wing 'religions.'

There are other things that Trump has done that will ultimately damage the economy:
1.His environmental deregulation that will result in degrading natural resource inputs.

2.His tax cuts that have ballooned the deficit and already resulted in considerably higher long term interest rates.

3.His attempts to arbitrarily impose penalties on businesses led by people who oppose him (Amazon) or to favor businesses led by people who support him (the coal and nuclear energy companies.) Trump's violation of the Emoluments Clause also fit in with this.

If Trump gets his way on significantly reducing immigration, that would complete his nativist right wing economically damaging agenda.

The only other thing Trump could do to damage the economy short of taking over companies and putting incompetents to manage them (Venezuela) or through imposing autarky (Franco's Spain) would be if he got rid of the Federal Reserve and put the United States back on the Gold Standard.  Fortunately, Trump is so ignorant, he likely knows nothing about that goofiness.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

...but most Americans have been doing better in the past 2 years than they were before 2016. It's easy to see why GOP partisans are mostly sticking with the President when their pockets are fatter and the economy is improving. Many don't like some specific Trump action.... but the USA is doing better than it was before 2016.

Name something significant that Trump has done to contribute to the economy.  What specific action of meaningfulness has he done that suddenly changed the (already steadily growing) economy?  Really.  I'm very eager to read your response.

I strongly disapprove of Trump.

I am just saying, from the perspective of the average person, the economy has improved since 2016, which makes it easier for the average person to back him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

...but most Americans have been doing better in the past 2 years than they were before 2016. It's easy to see why GOP partisans are mostly sticking with the President when their pockets are fatter and the economy is improving. Many don't like some specific Trump action.... but the USA is doing better than it was before 2016.

Name something significant that Trump has done to contribute to the economy.  What specific action of meaningfulness has he done that suddenly changed the (already steadily growing) economy?  Really.  I'm very eager to read your response.

I strongly disapprove of Trump.

I am just saying, from the perspective of the average person, the economy has improved since 2016, which makes it easier for the average person to back him.

There's an asymmetric aspect to this.  When the economy is bad, it's very much on people's minds.  The President/party in power tends to be blamed for the bad economy, fairly or not, and this hurts their prospects.  But when the economy is going well, it recedes from people's attentions in favor of other issues.  Most other current issues are not favorable to Trump for the average voter.  Obviously, Trump's positions on these issues help him with his core voters; everything helps him with that group, but as many others have pointed out, his core supporters by themselves are not enough to reelect him. 

TL; DR: a good economy won't help the President as much as a bad economy will hurt him.

[pbrower2a]

President Obama can no longer get any blame for any economic meltdown. Any fault goes to Trump from here on.

[KingSweden]

...but most Americans have been doing better in the past 2 years than they were before 2016. It's easy to see why GOP partisans are mostly sticking with the President when their pockets are fatter and the economy is improving. Many don't like some specific Trump action.... but the USA is doing better than it was before 2016.

Name something significant that Trump has done to contribute to the economy.  What specific action of meaningfulness has he done that suddenly changed the (already steadily growing) economy?  Really.  I'm very eager to read your response.

I strongly disapprove of Trump.

I am just saying, from the perspective of the average person, the economy has improved since 2016, which makes it easier for the average person to back him.

There's an asymmetric aspect to this.  When the economy is bad, it's very much on people's minds.  The President/party in power tends to be blamed for the bad economy, fairly or not, and this hurts their prospects.  But when the economy is going well, it recedes from people's attentions in favor of other issues.  Most other current issues are not favorable to Trump for the average voter.  Obviously, Trump's positions on these issues help him with his core voters; everything helps him with that group, but as many others have pointed out, his core supporters by themselves are not enough to reelect him. 

TL; DR: a good economy won't help the President as much as a bad economy will hurt him.

Well said, by you and DTC both

[forgotten manatee]

President Obama can no longer get any blame for any economic meltdown. Any fault goes to Trump from here on.

Agreed, though if that is the case, are voters now more likely to associate the good economy with Trump and not Obama?

[Progressive Pessimist]

President Obama can no longer get any blame for any economic meltdown. Any fault goes to Drumpf from here on.

Agreed, though if that is the case, are voters now more likely to associate the good economy with Drumpf and not Obama?

Unfortunately yes even though all he has done for it is sign a tax cut bill and introduce unnecessary tariffs.

[pbrower2a]

President Obama can no longer get any blame for any economic meltdown. Any fault goes to Drumpf from here on.

Agreed, though if that is the case, are voters now more likely to associate the good economy with Drumpf and not Obama?

Unfortunately yes even though all he has done for it is sign a tax cut bill and introduce unnecessary tariffs.

Disruptive, distorting tariffs could put an end to such prosperity.

[Brittain33]

The economy had recovered substantially by 2014 in many parts of the country and it didn't help Obama one bit.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly, June 11:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

[Gass3268]

Trump's approval only 48-47 in OH-12

[KingSweden]

Trump's approval only 48-47 in OH-12

What was his margin here?

[Gass3268]

Trump's approval only 48-47 in OH-12

What was his margin here?

53-42

[Person Man]

Trump's approval only 48-47 in OH-12

What was his margin here?

53-42

Make sense. Isn't Trump running even where he won by 10ish?

[BudgieForce]

PPP:

Approve - 39%
Disprove - 54%

No change.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/PPP_Release_National_61318.pdf

[Brittain33]

PPP:

Approve - 39%
Disprove - 54%

No change.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/PPP_Release_National_61318.pdf

Great, so this PPP poll is the exact reverse of "Trump doing less badly, GCB still bad for Republicans" polls we saw in the last few weeks.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac-Ohio:

43% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source