Spanish elections and politics

[DL]

Why Murcia so conservative? It's right next to Andalusia which is more left leaning and it was a heavily republican area during the Spanish civil war

[Nanwe]

Why Murcia so conservative? It's right next to Andalusia which is more left leaning and it was a heavily republican area during the Spanish civil war

Andalusia is left-leaning but eastern Andalusia a lot less, particularly Almería and to a lesser extent Granada. In these parts the typical jornalero-señorito divide existing in Sevilla for instance is a lot less prominent, with many more small land owners. The same applies to Murcia. Then there's the fact that Murcia is home to a large number of very religious and conservative groups, like the kikos and the Opus Dei. A Murcia friend likes to joke that Murcia is Spain's Alabama.

Then there's also the issue of how poor the Murcian economy was doing in the 90s - rioting over industrial closures led to people setting the regional assembly on fire - when the PSOE governed and then was followed by the tourism boom from the late 90s on, coinciding with the PP administration, and hence the economic improvement was tied to the PP. Murcia is closer economically and socially to Valencia than Almería, but without the nasty Catalanist-antiCatalanist cleavage.

Yeah. The closest thing to a far-right party is VOX, which came within 1500 votes of getting a seat in the 2014 European Parliament elections (got 1.57% of the vote), but since then they've gone downhill fast. Currently they have 0.2% of the vote and only 22 councillors in town halls (out of more than 67 000).

There might be demand for a party further right than PP, and a poll found out that if former Prime Minister Aznar (a Rajoy critic from the right) founded his own party and ran again he would get up to 15% of the vote and 51 seats. (coming in 4th; behind PP, PSOE and Podemos, but above Cs).

True, but even then it would not be a right-wing populist party as we see them in Europe, but rather a hard-right party, like a tougher, nastier, more Thatcherite version of the PP, not a Front National.

[Former President tack50]

And the governor of Murcia, Pedro Antonio Sánchez finally resigned. That means PP will hold the Murcia governor for the remaining of the term, and that the no confidence vote will almost certainly fail (Cs probably abstains or votes no now).

No idea who the new governor will be though, as he will remain as PP leader in the region (not a rare arrangement, many times parties have one person as regional leader but another as governor candidate).

[Former President tack50]

There have been lots of interesting developments concerning Gibraltar reciently. Basically Spain will get veto powers on any Brexit deal on Gibraltar.

The UK has become very angry about it, and there have been some interesting headlines in British "newspapers" like The Sun, and comments about going to war!

[Velasco]

Carme Chacón has passed away:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/10/inenglish/1491808518_435961.html

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[Former President tack50]

Poll by El País/Metroscopia about Catalonia:

Would you be in favour of a UDI?

Yes: 33%
No: 62%

In case of a completely legal and negotiated with Spain referendum, what would you vote?

Independence: 44%
Remain: 49%

If it was clear that Catalonia would end up outside the EU in case of independence, what would you vote?

Independence: 40%
Remain: 53%

If there was a 3rd option where Catalonia would remain part of Spain but would get more devolved and fixed powers, what would you vote?

Indepencence: 31%
Status Quo: 19%
More devolution: 46%

Do you think it's ok for Catalonia's integration in Spain to get an agreement where the constitution would give it some differentiated powers?

Catalonia: Yes: 70% No: 27%
Rest of Spain: Yes: 33% No: 61%

Regional election poll

PDECat: 11%
ERC: 29.2% (total JxSi: +0.7)
Cs: 16% (-1.2)
Catalunya Si que es Pot: 16% (+7.1)
PSC-PSOE: 13% (+0.3)
PP: 5.8% (-2.7)
CUP: 4.1% (-4.1)
Others: 4.9% (+0.6)

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/11/media/1491901157_109575.html

[Zinneke]

Any reason for the change of heart? The pro-independence camp had a fairly solid lead after Rajoy ''won'' again.
What happened to IC-V?

[Former President tack50]

Any reason for the change of heart? The pro-independence camp had a fairly solid lead after Rajoy ''won'' again.
What happened to IC-V?

IC-V is part of the Catalunya si que es pot coalition, alongside Podemos. And idk why independence has fallen slightly. I guess backlash against Rajoy dying down+the pro-independence coalition going through a hard time? (a leaked audio of a PDECat leader reciently saying that if the "proces" failed they should go back towards being pro autonomy and against independence, like pre-2012)

[Nanwe]

So something major just happened. The judges of the Gürtel case (corruption scandal linked to the illegal financing of the PP in Valencia and Madrid and possibly national levels) have called on Rajoy to come and declare as a witness.

[Former President tack50]

Got bored and with spare free time and decided what would happen if in Spain we elected Congress like the UK/US instead of proportionally. Also without reapportioning anything (so seats in say, Soria would have less people than those in Madrid) Decided to start with the Canary Islands. With this map of districts here are the 2011, 2015 and 2016 results:



Las Palmas
2011:
PP 8 (clean sweep)

2015:
Podemos: 4 (Lanzarote, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria*3)
PP: 4 (Fuerteventura and Agüimes, Gran Canaria South, Gran Canaria West, Telde and Ingenio)

2016:
PP 8 (clean sweep)

Santa Cruz de Tenerife

2011:
PP 7 (clean sweep)

2015:
PP 6
PSOE 1 (Tenerife South West)

2016:
PP 7 (clean sweep)

Conclusion: PP sweeps 2016 (split in the left) and 2011 (PP landslide) as expected. Podemos is surprisingly competitive in Las Palmas! (they could have also taken the Fuerteventura seat). PSOE surprisingly bad (only narrowly takes 1 seat in Tenerife, might have also taken the La Palma/La Gomera/El Hierro seat with some serious effort)

Of course it's just fiction as if we did that we'd have a (much stronger) 2 party system, but still nice to look at it.

[Nanwe]

I'm afraid I can't see the image.

However, I've designed a couple of alternate electoral maps myself.

Spain 2016 election: http://imgur.com/KqCnGOB
Spain 2015 election: http://imgur.com/vFLPtyK
Spain 2011 election: http://imgur.com/AvabjRK
Madrid 2015 election: http://imgur.com/Hin7Q5m
Catalonia 2015 election: http://imgur.com/nfwxiCo
Catalonia 2012 election: http://imgur.com/Ai91tQK

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?

[Nanwe]

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?

Not at all. It was proposed back in 2014 when the PP had a majority, and the opposition rejected it so hard, they haven't proposed it again, at best hinted at it under Cifuentes. If there's a reform of the Asamble de Madrid, it'd be open the lists up, lower the threshold from 5% to 3% and reduce its size from around 120 to around 100.

[Former President tack50]

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?

Didn't know about Madrid, but many other places are trying to pass reforms. Murcia passed a reform as part of the PP+Cs deal (went from 5 constituencies to a single at-large one; with the hurdle being reduced from 5% to 3%)

Another place where electoral reform is being discussed is in the Canary Islands, where the minor islands get as much of a voice as the 2 large ones even though they only have 20% of the people. However parties can't agree on a reform so I don't have much hope for that one. A proposal was to include 10 extra at large legislators to make the system more proportional, but PP and NC rejected that. Others want to keep the system as is (maybe lowering the hurdles from 6 to 3% regional and from 30 to 15% in an island). NC proposed increasing the number of legislators in GC/TF from 15 to 22, and in FV from 7 to 8.

At the national level I also remember electoral reform being discussed but I don't think it will pass unless the 4 main parties agree on a big constitutional reform package, which isn't likely to happen.

[Nanwe]

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?

Didn't know about Madrid, but many other places are trying to pass reforms. Murcia passed a reform as part of the PP+Cs deal (went from 5 constituencies to a single at-large one; with the hurdle being reduced from 5% to 3%)

Yeah, but the thing is that Madrid already pretty much has perfect proportionality, and lowering the threshold is only a priority for parties that barely failed to meet it (aka IU, maybe UPyD). As for the open lists, I'm not sure it can be done without changing the LOREG, which is not really up to the comunities beyond proposing a law to Congress - which would then actually have to pass.

Another place where electoral reform is being discussed is in the Canary Islands, where the minor islands get as much of a voice as the 2 large ones even though they only have 20% of the people. However parties can't agree on a reform so I don't have much hope for that one. A proposal was to include 10 extra at large legislators to make the system more proportional, but PP and NC rejected that. Others want to keep the system as is (maybe lowering the hurdles from 6 to 3% regional and from 30 to 15% in an island). NC proposed increasing the number of legislators in GC/TF from 15 to 22, and in FV from 7 to 8.

Interesting. I can understand that in an archipelago the territorial element it's important, since each island has rather clearer interestes, but that seems excessive. I suppose you can either expand Parliament (easy to do, but unpopular) or create as you say an at-large constituency (politicall hard to do, popular-ish). The issue is that at the ed of the day, people don't care too much about electoral law. And when they do it's always the same of say that Spain should be a single constituency of 350 deputies, which imho is a ludicrous idea, or worse those on the hard-right/far-right like Jimenez Los Santos or Vox who want FPTP.

At the national level I also remember electoral reform being discussed but I don't think it will pass unless the 4 main parties agree on a big constitutional reform package, which isn't likely to happen.

Yeah, any realistic reform of the LOREG beyond the simplest thing (closed > open lists; expanding Congress to its constitutional maximum of 400 deputies), requires a constitutional amendment, like to do away with the province as the basic electoral unit, which is a ridiculous requirement designed to favour the UCD (!!). It could be removed but since Podemos insists on putting every single amendment (even one as unconsequential as this one) to a vote in referendum and the PP would oppose it and it has a majority in the Senate...

I could always imagine a compromise where the provincial unit gets removed, and in exchnage the law for local elections is changed to a semi-parliamentary system where the mayor is elected by a two-round vote separate from the local council. But since atm Spain has a government but no opposition (mess in PSOE, Podemos failing at institutional politics and C's trying to be both government and opposition party simultaneously)

[Former President tack50]

In other news, former governor of Madrid Ignacio Gonzalez (2012-2015) has been sent to jail tonight. Yet another PP politician that goes to jail.

[Former President tack50]

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Yeah, the communties are very limited in that aspect. Other than the ones I discussed, I guess other than de-gerrymandering Castille La Mancha (not likely to happen as that backfired so bad PP was actually hurt by it, not helped! Maybe Podemos can pressure but Garcia-Page is one of the most anti-Podemos PSOE governors.) I can't think of any meaningful reforms. Maybe have the Basque Country give different numbers of seats per province (not sure if PNV is helped or hurt by it)? Or in general make the system more proportional everywhere?

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Sure, there's no perfect solution (although in the Canary Islands, people do care, at least in Gran Canaria). The at-large constituency was expanding parliament (from 60 to 70 iirc). And yeah, most proposals are the old "make Spain 1 at large constituency" or the like, which require a constitutional reform anyways. The only one that didn't that I've seen was Cs proposal (Expand parliament to 400 members, use the remaining 50 to make it proportional, like MMP).

Also, since when does VOX want FPTP? Do they want to never ever get elected? I can see why some people would want that, it does have advantages like politicians being able to defy their party without being forced out of the list, but also has lots of disadvantages. We also use sort of FPTP in the Senate and it's not like the politicians there defy their parties that much.

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Yeah. I personally don't think a referendum would be a problem for a simple reform (would most likely pass like 65-35 at least if it's popular and everyone endorses it). But I can see why a referendum is not something others want to do.

And yes, we don't have an opposition at the moment. PSOE will have to work with the government sometimes so they would be a weird opposition. Podemos as you say does not know how to do institutional politics (Iglesias did mean it when they said they'd be in the streets: see their "tramabus"). I guess if Errejón had won they would bee a lot better off. Cs same as PSOE but even more with the government.

I guess ERC and Rufián are the leaders of the opposition now? XD

[Former President tack50]

Esperanza Aguirre resigns as councillor in Madrid's town hall

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/04/24/58fe097c22601dcb318b4617.html

Well, I guess she'll be resigning for now, but she has often resigned, then returned to politics. It wouldn't surprise me at all if she was a candidate for something in 2019 or 2020 (though no idea of what, there's no chance she runs for mayor again and Cifuentes will definitely run for reelection as governor). I also don't see her as candidate for the European elections. Maybe she'll run as a regular backbencher MP?

Edit: She is 65, would be 67 in 2019. Probably will just retire.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apparently someone detained in the Lezo case (Pablo González?) has a kid at my university, by word of my old Spanish professor. Not sure who they are though.

[Former President tack50]

Big news: Podemos will present a no confidence vote against Rajoy

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/podemos-plantea-mocion-censura-contra-rajoy-6000718

I guess it's a way to try and influence the PSOE primary? (forcing them to reiterate their support towards a corrupt PP government). Though the PSOE could vote yes if they are sure that Catalan parties or the PNV will abstain (a no confidence vote requires 50%+1). Maybe they just want some headlines?

I seriously doubt this is actually intended to put Iglesias as PM.

Edit: I was right. PSOE has said they won't support it, so it's going nowhere. The best paralel is the 1987 no confidence vote, when PSOE had an absolute majority and it was a worthless no confidence vote.

[Nanwe]

Well it wasn't worthless. It sank Hernández Mancha's career as leader of AP. Let's see what happens to Iglesias

[Velasco]

Well it wasn't worthless. It sank Hernández Mancha's career as leader of AP. Let's see what happens to Iglesias

Pablo Igkesias is not a jerk like that Hernández Mancha. He is the Spanish Lenin: a true Alpha Male

[Former President tack50]

Weird polling for Madrid's regional assembly:

El País/Metroscopia

PP: 36 seats (25,7%) (-12 seats, -7.3%)
Podemos: 35 seats (24,9%) (+8 seats, +6.3%)
Ciudadanos: 31 seats (22.6%)(+14 seats, +10,5%)
PSOE: 27 seats (19.7%) (-10 seats, -5.7%)

PP+Cs still hold a majority, and expanded a bit. Also, there's a sorpasso not just from Podemos, but also from Cs! Huge changes overall, I'm not sure if it's all that reliable.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/30/media/1493576170_430043.html

La Razón/NC Report

PP: 51 seats (35.9%) (-3 seats, +2.8%)
PSOE: 34 seats (24,6%) (-3 seats, -0.8%)
Podemos: 26 seats (18,1%) (-1 seat, -0.5%)
Cs: 18 seats (13,1%) (+1 seat, +0.9%)

http://www.larazon.es/local/madrid/cifuentes-sube-tres-escanos-tras-la-crisis-de-la-operacion-lezo-FC15063053

PP and Cs also increase their majority slightly.

This one is a lot closer to the national average, and I don't think Madrid will deviate all that much from the national average for a general election. It's not the first place that comes to mind when talking about "dual voting" (the Basque Country is a great example, with PNV winning regional elections and Podemos winning general ones)

In any case I'd say Madrid is lean PP for 2019's regional election, maybe even likely PP (Cifuentes is doing a good job at distancing herself from the recient corruption cases). If PSOE was not able to win in 2015 or in 2003 (the second election) or 2007, it's definitely not winning now, and even with Errejón as Podemos' candidate a Podemos victory is also unlikely.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How are the podemos inspired mayors/local groups holding up in popularity?

[Nanwe]

Yet another poll for the region of Madrid. I think it shows Metroscopia is the rather off one.

In this scenario, the current Cifuentes government would lose its majority, being replaced with a left-wing PSOE-Podemos government. The polling was done in the last couple of days, so it reflects the Operación Lezo aftermath.

La Sexta/Invymark

PP: 44 seats (30.9%) (-4 seats, -2.2 pp.)
PSOE: 36 seats (25.8%) (-1 seats, +0.4 pp.)
Podemos: 30 seats (21.3%) (+3 seats, +2.7 pp.)
Ciudadanos: 19 seats (13.5%)(+2 seats, +1.4 pp.)

While it's true Madrid won't deviate too much from the national vote, Madrid I think is the region where Ciudadanos can obtain its best results, so depending on how things develop down the road with regards to what seems to be only the beginning of yet another round of tremendous PP corruption scandals, it could be greatly benefited. Also, Madrid does experience dual voting insofar as the PSM is no longer the second most-voted party in the general election, but remains so in the autonomic elections, perhaps as the PSM's candidate, Ángel Gabilondo is a pretty popular person in the left (thanks to his tenure as Education Minister under ZP) and who's not unpopular amongst the right either. I know a few friends who liked Gabilondo's smooth, tranquil political persona and voted for him in the regional election, but Podemos (or even Ciudadanos) in the local and the national election.