2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[peterthlee]

The whole story becomes more and more intriguing.
Just like how PN replaces BN as the major Malay coalition in Malaysia, FdI replaces FI as leading right-wing force in Italy, Bolsonarism replaces PSDB as leading right-wing force in Brazil, FA replaces PS as major left-wing force in Chile, old factions in PPP largely yielded to "outsiders" Lee Jun-seok and Yoon seok-yeol in South Korea...

[peterthlee]

https://udn.com/vote2024/story/123307/7584568?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_index
(UDN News)
TPP Ko said "I would stand till the last minute with the identity of TPP Prez Candidate"

So what did he wanna express? Break with KMT? Want Hou to be his VP?

[peterthlee]

https://udn.com/vote2024/story/123307/7584568?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_index
(UDN News)
TPP Ko said "I would stand till the last minute with the identity of TPP Prez Candidate"

So what did he wanna express? Break with KMT? Want Hou to be his VP?

Ko was a surgeon.  He said on many occasions that a surgeon does not make a decision until the last 30 seconds.  So in theory he can be with the identity of the TPP Prez candidate until the last minute but in the last 30 seconds, he will go over to be VP of KMT Hou.  Everything comes down to: is there a process KMT-TPP can come up with that he can convince the hawk TPP voters that it was "fair" so they come out to vote TPP on the PR slate AND give him some statistically meaningful chance of actually winning even if he accept that he will be the underdog.

Yep, but now many of his supporters are betting that he would break up with KMT and register at the CEC on his own.

How to then pacify these hard-core supporters?

[peterthlee]

So they continue on holding the suspense. What would be the endgame?

[peterthlee]

The latest Formosa Times 3-way poll has DPP Lai and KMT Hou in a virtual tie.  I suspect with all 3 tickets locked in there will be a reversion to the mean next week in polling with DPP Lai with a significant edge again as the media coverage focus changes to cover the DPP Lai campaign.

It seems chances of Ko being sidelined is still in place.
If Lai could only got 40 percent, then Hou has a decent shot.
We could not write off this election to the opposition yet.
Ko could not beat KMT's GOTV.
That's why Ko is desperate and could accept a deal that literally rule himself out as the presidential candidate.
But the TPP hawks, like Huang Shanshan (who had her polls inflated to first place in a youth heavy poll only to fell down to an embarrassing third place), only cared for their future and negated the concrete regime change desire.
Those TPP hawks are going to pull down TPP off the cliff regardless of who wins.

[peterthlee]

It seems chances of Ko being sidelined is still in place.
If Lai could only got 40 percent, then Hou has a decent shot.
We could not write off this election to the opposition yet.
Ko could not beat KMT's GOTV.
That's why Ko is desperate and could accept a deal that literally rule himself out as the presidential candidate.
But the TPP hawks, like Huang Shanshan (who had her polls inflated to first place in a youth heavy poll only to fell down to an embarrassing third place), only cared for their future and negated the concrete regime change desire.
Those TPP hawks are going to pull down TPP off the cliff regardless of who wins.

At this stage I do not think Huang realistically thinks that Ko will win.  Her calculation is that if Ko runs then TPP PR vote will be better and it is likely that she will lead a TPP legislative caucus that will hold the balance of power.  In that situation Huang will most likely do a deal with the KMT for her to be Deputy Speaker.  The balance of power within the TPP will shift from Ko to her.  In a KMT-TPP joint ticket Ko will be VP with the power to appoint a bunch of TPP ministers and will be much more powerful than Huang within the party.  Huang's power can be seen by the TPP PR list.  Most of them are aligned with Huang.

A Taipei city councillor has larger sphere of influence than a two-term ex-Taipei mayor who (i) won in a landslide against KMT in 2014 and (ii) won with both KMT and DPP fielding their candidates in 2018.

What a party.

[peterthlee]

It seems chances of Ko being sidelined is still in place.
If Lai could only got 40 percent, then Hou has a decent shot.
We could not write off this election to the opposition yet.
Ko could not beat KMT's GOTV.
That's why Ko is desperate and could accept a deal that literally rule himself out as the presidential candidate.
But the TPP hawks, like Huang Shanshan (who had her polls inflated to first place in a youth heavy poll only to fell down to an embarrassing third place), only cared for their future and negated the concrete regime change desire.
Those TPP hawks are going to pull down TPP off the cliff regardless of who wins.

At this stage I do not think Huang realistically thinks that Ko will win.  Her calculation is that if Ko runs then TPP PR vote will be better and it is likely that she will lead a TPP legislative caucus that will hold the balance of power.  In that situation Huang will most likely do a deal with the KMT for her to be Deputy Speaker.  The balance of power within the TPP will shift from Ko to her.  In a KMT-TPP joint ticket Ko will be VP with the power to appoint a bunch of TPP ministers and will be much more powerful than Huang within the party.  Huang's power can be seen by the TPP PR list.  Most of them are aligned with Huang.

Is KMT-TPP still heading towards an absolute majority in the legislature?

This means Han Kuo-yu is gonna be the speaker of the legislature...

[peterthlee]

Is KMT-TPP still heading towards an absolute majority in the legislature?

This means Han Kuo-yu is gonna be the speaker of the legislature...

It looks that way.  If a KMT-TPP alliance was formed then KMT plus pro-KMT independents would win a majority on its own.  That is still possible but less likely.  But a DPP majority seems very unlikely which means Han most likely becomes Speaker.

Even after the deal broke up Ko said that he wanted to campaign for and appear at rallies for KMT legislative candidates.  The KMT said they would not allow this.  This is because what Ko really wants to do is to use KMT rallies for their legislative candidates to increase his grassroots activities.  The TPP campaign does not have the funds for such GOTV rallies.   

The KMT is backing TPP candidates in 3 districts and KMT already said that they will continue to honor that and will treat these  TPP candidates just like KMT candidates in terms of organization, rallies, and support.

So the KMT pretty much wants to squeeze Ko where it hurts, his lack of GOTV organization even as they want to project a friendly attitude toward TPP on legislative races.

In some marginal urban seats, the KMT candidate would benefit from Ko's support.  Most likely what those candidates would do is to do private deals with the Ko campaign where the two camps would "accidentally" meet while doing street-by-street campaigning.  But in the meantime the KMT high command is clear: No Ko at KMT rallies.

Hou could always win...
Lai could not really sleepwalk this race.

KMT should try to win a majority on his own.
Teach Huang and those TPP hawks a lesson that they should never attempt to outmanuever KMT.

[peterthlee]

Ettoday poll - KMT Hou rises at the expense of TPP Ko (change from 2 weeks ago)

DPP Lai              34.8 (-0.1)
KMT Hou            32.5 (+5.2)
TPP Ko               21.2 (-4.8 )


Crosstabs show that KMT Hou's rise is mostly about consolidation of the KMT vote.  In a reversal of historical trends, DPP is stronger with the women vote.



PR vote - KMT gains from DPP
KMT                 34.8 (+3.0)
DPP                  28.8 (-2.5)
TPP                  15.8  (+0.6)



District vote - DPP loses some ground
KMT                33.9 (+0.7)
DPP                 28.9 (-2.7)
TPP                 13.8 (-0.2 )

Wow. If Hou can hold the trend, he actually has a shot.

Lai could not continue sleepwalking.

[peterthlee]

Despite polling, I start to feel Hou will pull it out in the end...

[peterthlee]

Despite polling, I start to feel Hou will pull it out in the end...

My current guess is

DPP Lai   41
KMT Hou 39
TPP Ko    20

I would say the chances of Lai vs Hou's victory are now as close as 60/40 given the edge Hou has in tactical voting while the entire 賴皮寮(Shameless Shack) scandal not going away means that 41-42 is pretty much the cap for DPP Lai.

Increasing feeling that it's going to be
KMT Hou 42
DPP Lai 40
TPP Ko 18...