NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Miked0920]

What are the odds he gets actually convicted this time? Im a little concerned that if Menendez runs as an independent it could put NJ possibly in play.

[brucejoel99]

What are the odds he gets actually convicted this time? Im a little concerned that if Menendez runs as an independent it could put NJ possibly in play.

He's likely gonna be convicted, it's an infinitely more solid case against him from the SDNY than the flimsier charges that garnered 10 votes to acquit last time around, & it not being as local a jury as NJ prob even further hurts his odds. As for possibly putting NJ in play, Kim winning the primary will moot those concerns; IF he doesn't, then the GOP's only chance is basically nominating a moderate like Bashaw & praying that Murphy & Menendez maximally depress & split Democratic-friendly turnout, but an independent Menendez would likely end up getting no more than 5% of the vote & just being lucky to win some Hudson precincts when he'd need to be doing well north of 10% to put this seat in serious danger.

[Miked0920]

I hope he does get convicted there is no place for behavior like this in politics.

[Compuzled_One]

What are the odds he gets actually convicted this time? Im a little concerned that if Menendez runs as an independent it could put NJ possibly in play.

He's likely gonna be convicted, it's an infinitely more solid case against him from the SDNY than the flimsier charges that garnered 10 votes to acquit last time around, & it not being as local a jury as NJ prob even further hurts his odds. As for possibly putting NJ in play, Kim winning the primary will moot those concerns; IF he doesn't, then the GOP's only chance is basically nominating a moderate like Bashaw & praying that Murphy & Menendez maximally depress & split Democratic-friendly turnout, but an independent Menendez would likely end up getting no more than 5% of the vote & just being lucky to win some Hudson precincts when he'd need to be doing well north of 10% to put this seat in serious danger.

Menendez was polling a good 20% against a Generic Republican when the indictment was hot. I assume 10% is at worst his average.

[Boobs]

Menendez’s spite run would also jeopardize his son further, putting him between the uncomfortable options of denouncing his father or the Democratic ticket. Sounds like a good way of getting both the Dem activist base (Kim’s supporters) and establishment institutions (behind Murphy) in getting behind Bhalla.

[brucejoel99]

What are the odds he gets actually convicted this time? Im a little concerned that if Menendez runs as an independent it could put NJ possibly in play.

He's likely gonna be convicted, it's an infinitely more solid case against him from the SDNY than the flimsier charges that garnered 10 votes to acquit last time around, & it not being as local a jury as NJ prob even further hurts his odds. As for possibly putting NJ in play, Kim winning the primary will moot those concerns; IF he doesn't, then the GOP's only chance is basically nominating a moderate like Bashaw & praying that Murphy & Menendez maximally depress & split Democratic-friendly turnout, but an independent Menendez would likely end up getting no more than 5% of the vote & just being lucky to win some Hudson precincts when he'd need to be doing well north of 10% to put this seat in serious danger.

Menendez was polling a good 20% against a Generic Republican when the indictment was hot. I assume 10% is at worst his average.

The poll with Menendez on 20% to Generic R's 42%/other 25%/undecided 13% was for if he somehow won the nom that he's officially not running for now; at best, he runs as an indy against a legit (D), with post-indictment approval ratings of no better than 16% (& literally every other poll in the single-digits), which'll only go down if he actually goes through with the choice to run indy after over a month of voters learning every embarrassing revelation from his criminal trial. He'd be lucky to break 5%. He's a confirmed miracle-worker if he breaks 10%.

[Compuzled_One]

What are the odds he gets actually convicted this time? Im a little concerned that if Menendez runs as an independent it could put NJ possibly in play.

He's likely gonna be convicted, it's an infinitely more solid case against him from the SDNY than the flimsier charges that garnered 10 votes to acquit last time around, & it not being as local a jury as NJ prob even further hurts his odds. As for possibly putting NJ in play, Kim winning the primary will moot those concerns; IF he doesn't, then the GOP's only chance is basically nominating a moderate like Bashaw & praying that Murphy & Menendez maximally depress & split Democratic-friendly turnout, but an independent Menendez would likely end up getting no more than 5% of the vote & just being lucky to win some Hudson precincts when he'd need to be doing well north of 10% to put this seat in serious danger.

Menendez was polling a good 20% against a Generic Republican when the indictment was hot. I assume 10% is at worst his average.

The poll with Menendez on 20% to Generic R's 42%/other 25%/undecided 13% was for if he somehow won the nom that he's officially not running for now; at best, he runs as an indy against a legit (D), with post-indictment approval ratings of no better than 16% (& literally every other poll in the single-digits), which'll only go down if he actually goes through with the choice to run indy after over a month of voters learning every embarrassing revelation from his criminal trial. He'd be lucky to break 5%. He's a confirmed miracle-worker if he breaks 10%.

That's why I think he'll likely get 10% if he goes indie-it's about half of that support. I assume a good chunk of it was just people who voted blue no matter who, but it does seem there are people out there who look at Menendez and think "Yep, that's our guy". Also, I assume his approval would go up at least a bit with no guilty verdict.

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the odds he gets actually convicted this time? Im a little concerned that if Menendez runs as an independent it could put NJ possibly in play.

He's likely gonna be convicted, it's an infinitely more solid case against him from the SDNY than the flimsier charges that garnered 10 votes to acquit last time around, & it not being as local a jury as NJ prob even further hurts his odds. As for possibly putting NJ in play, Kim winning the primary will moot those concerns; IF he doesn't, then the GOP's only chance is basically nominating a moderate like Bashaw & praying that Murphy & Menendez maximally depress & split Democratic-friendly turnout, but an independent Menendez would likely end up getting no more than 5% of the vote & just being lucky to win some Hudson precincts when he'd need to be doing well north of 10% to put this seat in serious danger.

Menendez was polling a good 20% against a Generic Republican when the indictment was hot. I assume 10% is at worst his average.

The poll with Menendez on 20% to Generic R's 42%/other 25%/undecided 13% was for if he somehow won the nom that he's officially not running for now; at best, he runs as an indy against a legit (D), with post-indictment approval ratings of no better than 16% (& literally every other poll in the single-digits), which'll only go down if he actually goes through with the choice to run indy after over a month of voters learning every embarrassing revelation from his criminal trial. He'd be lucky to break 5%. He's a confirmed miracle-worker if he breaks 10%.

That's why I think he'll likely get 10% if he goes indie-it's about half of that support. I assume a good chunk of it was just people who voted blue no matter who, but it does seem there are people out there who look at Menendez and think "Yep, that's our guy". Also, I assume his approval would go up at least a bit with no guilty verdict.

Also he could get some progressive/resistlib protest votes if Murphy wins the primary.

[brucejoel99]

I'm still holding to Indy Bob ultimately going nowhere, it's just so foreseeable:

Assuming Menendez follows through, the landscape for the Senate race this fall will be either Andy Kim or Tammy Murphy on the Democratic ticket, a Republican and then, the "independent" Menendez, who is really a Democrat.

Wisdom suggests whatever votes the embattled incumbent gets will come from Democrats, which has to help Republicans.

And Lord knows, they need the help, given the fact it's been more than 50 years since Republicans have won a U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey. And that was Clifford Case, the type of Republican who would be labeled a "RINO" today.

Moving back to 2024, "wisdom" aside, it's worth wondering just how stellar of a candidate Menendez is going to be?

Watch political races for a while and you discover that independents always "poll better" than they actually do. That was true years ago with Ross Perot nationally and more recently (in 2009) when Chris Daggett ran as an independent for governor. He was well received during the campaign, but was no factor at all when voters actually went to the polls. Daggett got a bit less than 6 percent.

Already, some have suggested that Menendez may draw from Latino voters. That seems a bit insulting, no?

Many different ethnic groups make up the so-called bloc of Latino voters and they all don't think a lot. Moreover, let's not assume Latinos are going to back an ethically-challenged politician just because he's named Menendez.

This brings us to the senator's social media video announcing his run as an independent.

The gist of it was that he plans to be "in the clear" a few months before Election Day.

"I am hopeful that my exoneration will take place this summer," he says.

The trial is scheduled to begin in early May, so it's possible it can be over by July.

Of course, the senator is banking on being found "not guilty." Anything can happen at trial, but to any objective observer, the allegations about Menendez having oodles of cash hidden in his house, plus the infamous gold bars, seems pretty damning.

One must also ask, "Why?"

Why does Menendez want to run as an independent? On one hand, it's an acknowledgement that he has no chance to get the Democratic nomination.

On the other, he may truly think he's not guilty and may not care at all if his entry into the race hurts his fellow Democrats – even in a small way.

[Compuzled_One]

I'm still holding to Indy Bob ultimately going nowhere, it's just so foreseeable:

Assuming Menendez follows through, the landscape for the Senate race this fall will be either Andy Kim or Tammy Murphy on the Democratic ticket, a Republican and then, the "independent" Menendez, who is really a Democrat.

Wisdom suggests whatever votes the embattled incumbent gets will come from Democrats, which has to help Republicans.

And Lord knows, they need the help, given the fact it's been more than 50 years since Republicans have won a U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey. And that was Clifford Case, the type of Republican who would be labeled a "RINO" today.

Moving back to 2024, "wisdom" aside, it's worth wondering just how stellar of a candidate Menendez is going to be?

Watch political races for a while and you discover that independents always "poll better" than they actually do. That was true years ago with Ross Perot nationally and more recently (in 2009) when Chris Daggett ran as an independent for governor. He was well received during the campaign, but was no factor at all when voters actually went to the polls. Daggett got a bit less than 6 percent.

Already, some have suggested that Menendez may draw from Latino voters. That seems a bit insulting, no?

Many different ethnic groups make up the so-called bloc of Latino voters and they all don't think a lot. Moreover, let's not assume Latinos are going to back an ethically-challenged politician just because he's named Menendez.

This brings us to the senator's social media video announcing his run as an independent.

The gist of it was that he plans to be "in the clear" a few months before Election Day.

"I am hopeful that my exoneration will take place this summer," he says.

The trial is scheduled to begin in early May, so it's possible it can be over by July.

Of course, the senator is banking on being found "not guilty." Anything can happen at trial, but to any objective observer, the allegations about Menendez having oodles of cash hidden in his house, plus the infamous gold bars, seems pretty damning.

One must also ask, "Why?"

Why does Menendez want to run as an independent? On one hand, it's an acknowledgement that he has no chance to get the Democratic nomination.

On the other, he may truly think he's not guilty and may not care at all if his entry into the race hurts his fellow Democrats – even in a small way.

I guess we'll agree to disagree. Not like our opinions impact anything.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/danieljhan_/status/1771918979394568362https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1771940865268707697

https://twitter.com/orchidcaveat/status/1769768105062912251

https://twitter.com/AdamBassOfMass/status/1771942547767570632https://twitter.com/AdamBassOfMass/status/1771943655072288863

[brucejoel99]

Well, that's that, then!

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1771981599845818731

[CookieDamage]

Well, that's that, then!

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1771981599845818731

Safe Murphy to Likely Murphy

[KaiserDave]

[The Mikado]

Well, that's that, then!

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1771981599845818731

Checkmate. Kim beat Tamm(an)y Hall.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1771983872248729839

[Ferguson97]

Holy crap, I legit didn’t see that coming

She must’ve thought that a) the line is definitely gone and b) that she would definitely lose without it.

[ꙮ]

Worst campaign ever. Imagine sucking so bad that you destroy an entire political machine months before the primary even happens.

That being said, her chances have been overstated for a while. I doubt how much this county line stuff actually matters for a Senate race with two well-known candidates. I can absolutely see how county lines would de-facto decide the winner of local races, but a Senator? Endorsements barely matter these days, and that's all the county line is in a race with two well-known candidates.

She was going to lose no matter what. This is merely her belated recognition of that fact.

[President Johnson]

Wow, that wasn't on my bingo card. Congratulations to Senator-elect Andy Kim.

[brucejoel99]

Confirmed:

https://twitter.com/tammymurphynj/status/1771986039940247650

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So it looks like Maryland will be last remaining competitive primary of this cycle.

[kyc0705]

lol. lmao, even.

[Sestak]

Some have suggested that Murphy dropping out would kill Kim’s standing in his lawsuit, allowing The Line to survive in the immediate-term; can any of our legal folks explain if this is true?

[mtvoter]

Holy crap, I legit didn’t see that coming

She must’ve thought that a) the line is definitely gone and b) that she would definitely lose without it.

Or her internals showed her losing badly even with the line.

[new_patomic]

Some have suggested that Murphy dropping out would kill Kim’s standing in his lawsuit, allowing The Line to survive in the immediate-term; can any of our legal folks explain if this is true?

It doesn't kill his standing.

But if the judge rules in favor of the line system, or his ruling is appealed, the calculus could be that Kim won't continue with the litigation. The other plaintiffs don't have nearly as deep of pockets either.

Feels a bit hopeful on their end though. Better assumption would be that Murphy did it now because tomorrow is the filing deadline. Far less embarrassing to exit now.