Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Alben Barkley]

Cohn:

The race now leans toward the Democrats. There’s a long way to go and it’s close, but they have done better than they need across all vote methods and in all regions.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Congratulations to governor-elect Stacey Abrams on winning the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election and becoming the first black female governor of Georgia.

First black female governor of any state.

[Hope For A New Era]

Just curious; if Dems pull both these off, what will be considered the tipping point seat in the Senate?

The tipping point will be whatever the narrowest D Senate win is. If it's not one of Ossoff or Warnock, it will be Peters.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346644503772463106

[LimoLiberal]

looks like the only place where Perdue and Loeffler are appreciably overperforming Biden/Trump #s is the Southern edge and SE coast. not enough for them to win.

[Hammy]

CNN is making these races look closer than they actually are at this point. Thinking about turning it off.

CNN has been sensationalist trash TV since at least 2013 and has done more work than anybody to make sure Trumpism became mainstream, it's probably best to turn them off permanently.

[Dr. Arch]

I think the race are likely to shake out to Warnock +3, Ossoff +2.

That big?

Large chunks of metro ATL and Savannah are still out. Most of Republican areas are almost done. It's the same pattern as November, but the margin won't be quite as close.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Looks like there is no Bradley effect against Warnock and/or Loeffler's weaknesses have cost her support. I think this is a positive sign in general.

I thought Obama killed that theory in 2008 & 2012

[ProudModerate2]

Congratulations to governor-elect Stacey Abrams on winning the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election and becoming the first black female governor of Georgia.

It could very well happen.
No joking.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Warnock now at a 75% chance on NYT.

[Malarkey Decider]

Perdue and Loeffler are only up 5 points in Forsyth County! Only about 22% in so far but still...that's just brutal.

forsythvoter & I have been telling you all for months that the county is changing rapidly.

But we never really nailed down what metro county flips after Fayette.

Forsyth, with a small chance of Paulding.

[Logical]

I'm starting to believe that a certain infamous doomposter here has sold their soul to the devil in exchange for Democratic victories. But such blessings come with a curse and they are forced to doompost endlessly like a reverse Cassandra.

[wbrocks67]

The red mirage is *real* right now

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Just curious; if Dems pull both these off, what will be considered the tipping point seat in the Senate?

2016 NH Senate race

[TopShelfGoal]

Oof Loeffler and Purdue are running even with Trump in Cherokee with 96% in. I think we all know where this race is headed.

Actually it's even worse than that, they are running 2.6 and 2.1 points behind Trump respectively in Cherokee.

[Non Swing Voter]

Anyone know when there will be new DeKalb dumps?

[wbrocks67]

Waiting for that DeKalb dump....

[Crumpets]

Interesting that the biggest D shifts so far seem to be in the Black Belt despite that being probably the fastest R trending part of the state. Low propensity black voters showing up for Warnock?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ironically it was around this point in the GE when the NYT needle shifted in Biden’s favor because it knew what was left. Now at this point Warnock is at 75% and Ossoff 65% 😎

[riceowl]

Ossoff +1 on the needle now

[Badger]

Congrats to the poster who made an anti-Semitic comment 30 minutes after a moderator posted about being Jewish and I wasn't even the one who got their first to delete it.

I shouldn't give oxygen to this morons fire, but was it some new guy / gal, or an established poster?

[Brittain33]

Remember 8 hours ago when Black farmers in rural Georgia voting for Perdue was going to be a thing?

[emailking]

Odds are 3 to 1 in favor of Warnock and 2 to 1 in favor of Ossof.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff +1 on the needle now

And "Leaning" finally.

[Oryxslayer]

Just curious; if Dems pull both these off, what will be considered the tipping point seat in the Senate?

2016 NH Senate race

This is the correct answer by margin, but from most vulnerable -> safe its probably Manchin.