Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[President Johnson]

Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done?

[MT Treasurer]

Tester is  #populist so he will win garfield county due to a recount but will lose Gallatin due to it being a Romney Clinton county.

LMFAO

[Storr]

Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done?

There's an automatic recount.

[Calthrina950]

Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done?

Yes, so far as I know. Nelson trails Scott by ~39,000 votes, with 100% of precincts reporting (per Huffington Post). Unless if a miracle occurs with absentee ballots or the like (as with the automatic recount), Scott has won.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done?

Yes, so far as I now. Nelson trails Scott by ~39,000 votes, with 100% of precincts reporting (per Huffington Post). Unless if a miracle occurs with absentee ballots or the like (as with the automatic recount), Scott has won.

I think the 2000 Presidential was down to at most a few thousand at this point. Of course that was after Gore retracted his concession.

[Calthrina950]

Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done?

Yes, so far as I now. Nelson trails Scott by ~39,000 votes, with 100% of precincts reporting (per Huffington Post). Unless if a miracle occurs with absentee ballots or the like (as with the automatic recount), Scott has won.

I think the 2000 Presidential was down to at most a few thousand at this point.

You are right. And Bush only won Florida by 537 votes in the end. Scott is leading by much more than that. And DeSantis is up by ~60,000 votes over Gillum.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pete Sessions when interviewed in a December 2016 by the Dallas Morning News article asking about the significance of his race in 2018 given than Hillary carried it.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-politics/2016/12/12/sessions-culberson-see-districts-turn-blue-presidential-race-age-trump-signal-long-term-trouble

“If the Democrats want to think they can take their party, that is dead, and resurrect something in Texas 32, bring it on,” he said.
The more immediate concern, for Sessions and other incumbents, is the threat of a primary challenger. “I don’t think there’s any doubt in anybody’s mind that, by and large, these races are decided in primaries,” said Sessions.

Ok b****

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Looks like most of the vote came in for Arizona with 99% reporting based on the new york times and McSally is ahead by .8%.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

[MillennialModerate]

Arizona going to be called soon despite a razor thin margin

[Storr]

Looks like most of the vote came in for Arizona with 99% reporting based on the new york times and McSally is ahead by .8%.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

CNN has the same exact vote numbers, 847,021-832,441 McSally, as NYT. But, CNN says only 75% of the vote in. I'm not sure who's right and who's wrong, but someone is...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Looks like most of the vote came in for Arizona with 99% reporting based on the new york times and McSally is ahead by .8%.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

CNN has the same exact vote numbers, 847,021-832,441 McSally, as NYT. But, CNN says only 75% of the vote in. I'm not sure who's right and who's wrong, but someone is...

CNN is probably counting absentees against the percent reporting.

[Storr]

Looks like most of the vote came in for Arizona with 99% reporting based on the new york times and McSally is ahead by .8%.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

CNN has the same exact vote numbers, 847,021-832,441 McSally, as NYT. But, CNN says only 75% of the vote in. I'm not sure who's right and who's wrong, but someone is...

CNN is probably counting absentees against the percent reporting.

You're probably right.

[MillennialModerate]

There goes Arizona

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Again, Arizona is too early to call right now. It really depends where those absentees came from.

[Zaybay]

Yeah, I would say its to early to call as well

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Arizona going to be called soon despite a razor thin margin

What part of "there are 100k+ ballots that they announced BEFORE the election they would not count until more than a week had passed" is not clear?

[Shadows]

Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016.

If Dems had done 3-4% better like it was expected (D+7/8), probably 30-35 more House seats would have been in play & FL/AZ would have been easy wins with perhaps an upset in Texas ! Maybe we would have had a 51-49 GOP Senate even if ND, IN & MO were gone.

4-5% certainly isn't a wave.  What is shocking is Florida went 5% to the right of the National PV.

[Brittain33]

Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016.

What are you going on? We have a few million votes in California we won't see for many days to come. It would be surprising for Dems to have taken the House with a 4% swing when we were told it needed >5%. 

[mgop]

5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016.

If Dems had done 3-4% better like it was expected (D+7/8), probably 30-35 more House seats would have been in play & FL/AZ would have been easy wins with perhaps an upset in Texas ! Maybe we would have had a 51-49 GOP Senate even if ND, IN & MO were gone.

4-5% certainly isn't a wave.  What is shocking is Florida went 5% to the right of the National PV.

I'm not sure where you are getting the 4% figure, but if they are up 4% right now, they'll probably be up 7% once all the votes are counted, especially out of CA.

[Zaybay]

5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning.

MT is projected to go D, and AZ isnt done yet, but yeah, pretty good for you guys.

[IceSpear]

5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning.

Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts.

[President Johnson]

Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016.

If Dems had done 3-4% better like it was expected (D+7/8), probably 30-35 more House seats would have been in play & FL/AZ would have been easy wins with perhaps an upset in Texas ! Maybe we would have had a 51-49 GOP Senate even if ND, IN & MO were gone.

4-5% certainly isn't a wave.  What is shocking is Florida went 5% to the right of the National PV.

To a degree yes, but Trump's approvals are relatively high in Florida compared to other key states. As I said earlier, I think he keeps the sunshine state in 2020 regardless of the national outcome (unless there is a 2008 Obama style victory for Democrats).

[Brittain33]

Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016.

If Dems had done 3-4% better like it was expected (D+7/8), probably 30-35 more House seats would have been in play & FL/AZ would have been easy wins with perhaps an upset in Texas ! Maybe we would have had a 51-49 GOP Senate even if ND, IN & MO were gone.

4-5% certainly isn't a wave.  What is shocking is Florida went 5% to the right of the National PV.

To a degree yes, but Trump's approvals are relatively high in Florida compared to other key states. As I said earlier, I think he keeps the sunshine state in 2020 regardless of the national outcome (unless there is a 2008 Obama style victory for Democrats).

Yes, Trump's strength with Florida Man is the mirror of his weakness with educated suburbanites. It's a state that fits him.

[J. J.]

5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning.

Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts.

Huh.  We still have two out, each way.

The House met Democratic expectations, but did not exceed them.  The Senate exceeded Republican expectations.  Three governorships are up in the air (WI, GA, CN).  One flipped with a lot of GOP support.

BTW: My pick was 229 D.