Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Tintrlvr]

There has to be a tabulation error in Apache County or something. No way McSally should even be close there.

Apache County (and Navajo County, too) is crazy polarized between extremely Republican I think mainly Mormon areas in the south and extremely Democratic Native American reservation areas in the north. Totally plausible for partial results to show McSally ahead if the reservations are slow to count.

[lfromnj]

Well in the end Beto did win Tarrant

I said earlier in the night this might happen. If this doesn't start ringing fire bells I don't know what will.
Cruz literally just said Tarrant is the biggest reddest county in the biggest reddest state.

[Calthrina950]

Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting.

Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough.

But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance.

Yep. A perfect example of the corrupt Democrat leadership shooting themselves in the foot yet again. It's why they lost in 2016 and why they are under-performing again tonight.

Imagine thinking Democrats are underperforming in this election.

God, the left sucks in the country.

They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown.

It is clear that the Atlas community definitely overhyped Democratic chances in many of these races. Democrats themselves overhyped their chances. Yes, there are many warning signs for Republicans (such as in Texas), but the "blue wave" seems to be manifesting as a "blue ripple". 

[Panda Express]

So it looks like SC-01 is going Dem. Would Mark Sanford have won?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OMG. At 98% in, Evers is UP narrowly again. And most of the outstanding precincts are in La Crosse County.

There were apparently a bunch of uncounted ballots in Milwaukee (despite saying it was all in), don't know if those are included in the count you are referencing, but they may be, or maybe not.

[Storr]

So it looks like SC-01 is going Dem. Would Mark Sanford have won?

I'd say yes, then again I'd never have guessed this race would have been close.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wait what

But then how does that explain when Beto was leading Cruz chances were over 90%

It could be an issue with the 3 different results systems that are counting votes separately (or one updating more quickly than the other). The 538 model may have been looking at one, while you were looking at the other.

[Roronoa D. Law]

So it looks like SC-01 is going Dem. Would Mark Sanford have won?

Maybe but McMaster lost Charleston county by 15. Charleston is usually a small Dem lead.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Arizona seems like it's taking forever to come in again

It will take more than another week.

[MasterJedi]

Evers is back up after briefly dipping below Walker; he's ahead by a little over 1,000 votes. Between 20-25 precincts combined left in La Crosse and Portage, plus a little under 10 in Calumet (though the Republican vote here will likely be drowned out by the Dem margins in the other counties). And then there's the mysterious Milwaukee ballots. It's a nail-biter.

Don’t know how it’s a mystery. About 45,000 from the city and 7,800 from Tosa.

[Yank2133]

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Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats.

Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight.  Just kind of so-so?

[AtorBoltox]

I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight.  Just kind of so-so?

You should be extremely disappointed. The Republican legislative agenda is dead

[Tintrlvr]

Evers now up close to 7,000 votes after a dump from La Crosse (though there's some left there still). Hard to see how Walker makes that up barring an error somewhere. (Though I do recall one year not too long ago Waukesha County came out really late, hours after they said they were done, and dumped a ton of missing votes that switched some races to the Rs, so it's still possible.)

[MasterJedi]

Evers gained ~31,000 in Milwaukee County

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/1060062097860648960

[Jersey Jimmy]

he (probably) did it.

the madman actually (probably) did it.

[Yank2133]

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It is funny how R's are spinning this.

You guys lost the house by 9 points in a economy with less 4% unemployment and a President with a 40-44 approval rating with those conditions.

You guys are lucky that this is the worst senate map for Democrats in recent memory.

[AtorBoltox]

Evers now up close to 7,000 votes after a dump from La Crosse (though there's some left there still). Hard to see how Walker makes that up barring an error somewhere. (Though I do recall one year not too long ago Waukesha County came out really late, hours after they said they were done, and dumped a ton of missing votes that switched some races to the Rs, so it's still possible.)

That sounds like something that would happen in a third world country

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight.  Just kind of so-so?

You should be extremely disappointed. The Republican legislative agenda is dead

But our Senate majority is bigger to confirm justices who will overturn Roe.

[Tintrlvr]

Evers now up close to 7,000 votes after a dump from La Crosse (though there's some left there still). Hard to see how Walker makes that up barring an error somewhere. (Though I do recall one year not too long ago Waukesha County came out really late, hours after they said they were done, and dumped a ton of missing votes that switched some races to the Rs, so it's still possible.)

That sounds like something that would happen in a third world country

You act like American elections aren't run with the administrative competence of a third-world country already.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Well in the end Beto did win Tarrant

If you chopped off the Texas panhandle and gave it to Oklahoma and/or a chunk of East TX and gave it to Arkansas, Beto would have won.

It was only the rural counties of TX that saved Cruz. The rural counties, many of which are losing population overall, and most of the rest of which are losing white population.

That is old Texas. New Texas is the megacities, and New Texas is strongly Dem trending.

The Republican Party of Texas is now the Party of Old Texas.

[emailking]

It is clear that the Atlas community definitely overhyped Democratic chances in many of these races. Democrats themselves overhyped their chances. Yes, there are many warning signs for Republicans (such as in Texas), but the "blue wave" seems to be manifesting as a "blue ripple". 

I just figured the polls would be about right. Looks like they were in terms of overall House performance. But the Dems were over-favored by the polls in the red state senate races.

[Badger]

Things will be better for FL with Amendment 4, I have no doubt both Gillum/Nelson would've won if felons could've voted.

What a sad state for Democrats. "If only we get criminals to the polls..."

Dude, you never post on this board. You're showing up just to brag.

Go away. You're pathetic and you have no business here.

[Hammy]

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Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats.

Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do.

They weren't favored for the Senate overall, but there's no reason Arizona should be this close, no reason Florida should've been lost, and no reason the margins in Indiana or Missouri should've been what they were, or the seat retentions in the upper Midwest. And we're looking at the increasing possibility of Tester losing as well.

And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage.

[lfromnj]

Democrats sweep Colorado row offices.

Republicans sweep Ohio row offices. That state is gone.

Democrats look likely to narrowlysweep Wisconsin offices.

does hofoid have egg or no?

Most people did predict an evers +5 to 8 victory around but it came out really close.