Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Storr]

Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

I'd call that a miracle honestly.

I don't really think it would be particularly surprising, if NYT's numbers are believable.

Well I meant it in the sense that there would only be a D-2 loss in the Senate with 4 Democrat Incumbents going down. It would also indicate an interesting East/West spilt even when you include Beto's significant over-performance in Texas.

[Tintrlvr]

Storey: 63-31 Heller, down from 63-29 Trump

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Randy Bryce was sure a real dud.

[7,052,770]

NYT thinks that Tester wins the outstanding vote by 11.8 points. That one's probably a hold.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

538 is Giving Heller a 95% chance for some reason


Have no idea why Nate Silver hasnt explained that

I am pretty sure the 538 model is not based on county level results at all. It just is based on the current # of votes counted, regardless of geography. There is no sub-district or sub-state model.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Whats wrong with 538 Nevada prediction

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning

Are they going solely based on the votes counted?

Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56%

I'd trust Cohn more, but he does seem a bit over cautious as Scott is only at 57%.

[MasterJedi]

Randy Bryce was sure a real dud.

Well yeah, guy was a deadbeat. Only paid off child support after starting his campaign after many years.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

538 is Giving Heller a 95% chance for some reason


Have no idea why Nate Silver hasnt explained that

I am pretty sure the 538 model is not based on county level results at all. It just is based on the current # of votes counted, regardless of geography. There is no sub-district or sub-state model.

Wait what


But then how does that explain when Beto was leading Cruz chances were over 90%

[MasterJedi]

OMG. At 98% in, Evers is UP narrowly again. And most of the outstanding precincts are in La Crosse County.

47,000 votes from city of Milwaukee and Tosa as well.

[Hammy]

Arizona seems like it's taking forever to come in again

[7,052,770]

538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning

Are they going solely based on the votes counted?

Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56%

I'd trust Cohn more, but he does seem a bit over cautious as Scott is only at 57%.

I'm assuming that's why Nelson hasn't conceded yet, that there's some legit hope still out there?

[Sestak]

So it looks like MT and NV will go D...

Hoping for AZ

[J. J.]

@63 Rosendale is up by 58 votes.   

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

California update:

1. DeLeon is doing ridiculously well. We'll see what happens as the remaining 70% comes in.

2. Jeff Denham is probably going to lose. Stanislaus County, which is supporting him, is almost completely done counting, whereas bluer San Joaquin is only just coming in.

3. Katie Hill vs Steve Knight is still a complete tossup.

4. Young Kim looks good, but it'll depend on what bits of Orange County are still outstanding.

5. Mimi Waters also look good, but it could absolutely go either way.

6. Levin and Rouda both look on track to win.

7. Duncan Hunter (blech) also looks safe.

Anything in CA that is close now is most likely to go Dem, if past California results are anything at all to go by. In the past, Dems always gain over the next couple of days after the election. The Dem votes by mail that come in at the end always get counted last.

[7,052,770]

NYT: Nevada just jumped to 57% Rosen, and Arizona just jumped to "Tossup Simena," which I guess means 50%

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Yeah, people here feeling very optimistic after that Washoe number.

If by "feeling optimistic" you mean realizing that the race is over and can be called, yeah.

[Tintrlvr]

OMG. At 98% in, Evers is UP narrowly again. And most of the outstanding precincts are in La Crosse County.

Yup. The city of Green Bay came in for Evers. Evers has this, I think. Most outstanding votes are in La Crosse, Portage and Calumet with a tiny smattering elsewhere. Calumet is a Walker county but La Crosse and Portage are both Evers counties, and I think even Calumet alone couldn't net Walker 3,500 votes.

Unclear if the rumored missing 50,000 Milwaukee County ballots got counted, but obviously if not they could cushion Evers's win.

[MasterJedi]

OMG. At 98% in, Evers is UP narrowly again. And most of the outstanding precincts are in La Crosse County.

Yup. The city of Green Bay came in for Evers. Evers has this, I think. Most outstanding votes are in La Crosse, Portage and Calumet with a tiny smattering elsewhere. Calumet is a Walker county but La Crosse and Portage are both Evers counties, and I think even Calumet alone couldn't net Walker 3,500 votes.

Unclear if the rumored missing 50,000 Milwaukee County ballots got counted, but obviously if not they could cushion Evers's win.

Not a rumor and not counted yet.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning

Are they going solely based on the votes counted?

Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56%

I'd trust Cohn more, but he does seem a bit over cautious as Scott is only at 57%.

I'm assuming that's why Nelson hasn't conceded yet, that there's some legit hope still out there?

Unless everyone who called it forgot about how dumb they looked 18 years ago, it's over.

And BTW, on election night 2000, I was wondering why they called it for Bush.

[Jersey Jimmy]

will you people just call SC-01 for Joe already? accept your precious Trumpian golden girl lost and move on.

[Hammy]

Nevada R+6 with Vegas still out--I dare say the Dems have this

[Tintrlvr]

Yeah, people here feeling very optimistic after that Washoe number.

If by "feeling optimistic" you mean realizing that the race is over and can be called, yeah.

Yeah, Rosen wins Washoe 53-44. That's the race. Don't even need to see Clark, no way Heller overperforms enough there to make up for it considering Washoe only went to Clinton 46-45 and Heller is underperforming Trump in the rural counties, too.

[Storr]

There has to be a tabulation error in Apache County or something. No way McSally should even be close there.

Only 45% of the vote is in there. I'd guess what is left is fairly Dem.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Well in the end Beto did win Tarrant