COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Pericles]

The evidence from the UK is that the primary outbreaks are in care homes, workplaces and schools.

Is there a difference between the types of schools? Maybe high schools and universities/college could be closed while keeping lower years open, as the lower years seem to need physical learning more and they might be less of a risk both for suffering complications from Covid and for spreading it.

[Pericles]

There shouldn't be 55,000 actual daily infections in the community, Trump is such an idiot.

[Pericles]

Trump is right that Cuomo botched the first wave, but Cuomo is right that he's done better than almost any other state since then at suppressing Covid. So probably I'd be annoyed at Cuomo but give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320711322284281862

What a disgusting person he is. Even after all the suffering that his incompetence has caused, he still sees it about himself.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/TopherSpiro/status/1321098402768310272

LOCK HIM UP!
(Yes, I know his rallies aren't actually illegal)

[Pericles]

Again, the fact we don’t have a mask mandate everywhere in the US which is strictly enforced is outrageous. There is no economic harm from a mask mandate, and it greatly will reduce our transmission.

How would you enforce it?

Fine people who don't follow the requirements.

[Pericles]

Again, the fact we don’t have a mask mandate everywhere in the US which is strictly enforced is outrageous. There is no economic harm from a mask mandate, and it greatly will reduce our transmission.

How would you enforce it?

Fine people who don't follow the requirements.

While I support a mandate in spirit I'm not trying to give cops another reason to harass people, especially minorities. If I had faith law enforcement would treat all maskless citizens equally? Sure. But that won't happen.

There should be processes in place and the administration should work as hard as possible to make sure that the law is enforced fairly, yes. Ultimately though, maskless people and rulebreakers should be punished and efforts should be made to reduce transmission of Covid-19, to a certain extent what you're saying just means that imperfect enforcement is better than no enforcement. Covid is a very serious public health threat, and overall threat to the community and even the economy. After all, the solution to systemic racism is not to repeal all laws because they're unfairly enforced.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1329796911583404032

I guess the Trump administration is competent after all.

[Pericles]

Biden 5 days ago:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/526787-biden-vows-he-will-not-implement-a-nationwide-shutdown
Biden vows he will not implement a nationwide shutdown

"I’m not going to shut down the economy, period. I’m going to shut down the virus," Biden said. "I’ll say it again. No national shutdown."

[...]

“We discussed the implementation of a national mask mandate — 10 governors, Democrats and Republicans, have imposed requirements and recognized the need for universal masking,” Biden said. “North, south, east and west. It’s not a political statement. It’s a patriotic duty.”

A 'national' lockdown is too rigid given the size of the US and how different the states are. Some states really should be in lockdown now though.

[Pericles]

Is it now too late and New York's second wave is happening? They were doing so well.

[Pericles]

Yeah it's great that we can live a normal life in New Zealand. The reason for that is that we went hard and early so we don't have any community transmission of Covid. The US is in a much different and worse situation.

[Pericles]

If the virus was just running wild among under 65s, it would be very hard to 'protect the vulnerable'. The much safer and more reliable way of doing it was to reduce the spread among all age groups.

[Pericles]

Interestingly, Fauci just did an interview with a NZ news organisation. He reflected a bit on his own role in the US's outcome-

However, before the vaccine arrives, nearly 300,000 Americans will have died from Covid. Does Fauci feel a personal sense of guilt?

“I think it’s a natural emotion, to feel that. Even though you really don’t have much control over it, there’s that feeling of, ‘Could I have done better? Is there something I didn’t do right?’ You can’t let it paralyse you.”

Fauci is reluctant to be drawn on any regrets, but hints that the United States could have gone harder and earlier, as New Zealand did.

“Probably, in the very beginning of the outbreak when we saw community spread, maybe we should have been more aggressive in getting the country to shut down. But I think, quite frankly, if we had asked the country to shut down, no-one would have responded to us.

“[In hindsight], I likely would have tried to do that – but I doubt I would have been successful.”

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300180952/have-i-shed-tears-oh-yeah-dr-anthony-fauci-on-mental-health-president-trump-and-the-covid19-vaccine

[Pericles]

I'm pleasantly surprised at how New York has managed to control its second wave. I thought the case numbers would continue soaring exponentially way past the first wave peak, like has happened in many European countries. Instead, they have held it at around 10,000 daily cases since the beginning of the month. Since testing is so much higher, the second wave should be much less deadly. Maybe the peak will still come, it is still rising slightly, but maybe they have actually responded pretty well (or are for some reason much luckier than Europe when they weren't in the first wave?).

[Pericles]

This hospitalisations curve is very grim, it just keeps on increasing.
https://covidtracking.com/data/

[Pericles]

New York’s case numbers have now clearly surged past the 10,000-ish range they have been in for the last month. Today’s case numbers are record breaking for the state, and the daily deaths are the highest for the second wave. Clearly exponential growth is now occurring, so the state must increase restrictions, probably with another lockdown. It is better to play it safe by acting quickly rather than dithering and regretting it later.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1348673192609591296?s=20

America's Governor!!! 😍😍

Exactly the wrong time to reopen New York when Covid is surging out of control. Madness.

[Pericles]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Don't see how you can possibly know that. The experts are saying it's possible.

But they haven't explained how.

The combination of the winter months and the double-hit of holiday spread make this period seem like it'll be hard to top. The only way I can see it happening is if reinfections massively ramp up, and the data right now indicates that reinfections are an extremely rare event that has yet to be fully explained.

If one of the variants becomes widespread. The UK variant caused some scary exponential growth, and it might be part of the same surge in Spain. More contagious variants naturally mean a higher peak, unless tougher measures are brought in early.

[Pericles]

Which states are in an actual lockdown right now, rather than just social distancing restrictions?

[Pericles]

Looking at the Covid tracking project, it seems that New York has the highest number of hospitalised people per capita, and the second highest level of daily cases per capita (highest being South Carolina). Is Cuomo doing something wrong?

[Pericles]

In the end, people who opposed lockdowns and masks but supported vaccines are going to be vindicated. Their stance was the pandemic playbook that was in force before 2020, and should have been followed all along.

Surely vaccines make the case for lockdowns and other distancing restrictions? It is even more tragic that not enough precautions were taken, especially in the last few months, when so many lives could have been saved with only a bit more patience.

[Pericles]

Only 13% of Texans have received any vaccine dose, and cases are at similar levels to the start of the third wave (hospitalisations are higher). This won't end well.

[Pericles]

Another reason to reduce the prevalence of Covid in the community now is that when there are more opportunities for it to mutate, the risk of a vaccine hesitant mutation forming is higher. Compared to the worst-case scenario, the cost of having some patience is very small.

[Pericles]

If the US achieves herd immunity this year, then surely it would be the end of the pandemic in the US and other developed countries? Unfortunately developing countries are being left behind and there is the risk if new variants, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[Pericles]

Another great thing about Biden's speech is that people now have May 1 and July 4 dates for when normal life might return, so there is light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully that deflates the rush to reopen right now and reminds people not to endanger their loved ones just before they can be saved.