2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Pew research has the GCB at D+2.

Their last poll had it tied.



https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/23/midterm-election-preferences-voter-engagement-views-of-campaign-issues/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Politico/Morning Consult steady at D+5 this week, 47-42

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/31061407/2208180_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_08-31-22_SH.pdf

Democrats hold an edge on most issues:

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?

National Security: R+11
Inflation: R+10
Economy: R+10
Immigration: R+6
Jobs: R+4
Guns: D+5
Energy: D+6
Education: D+9
Voting rights: D+11
COVID: D+13
Healthcare: D+15
Medicare and SS: D+15
Environment: D+22
Climate change: D+25

They're also more popular than the Republicans, which, admittedly, has historically been the case most of the time. They hold a 42-51% (-9) favorability rating compared to the Republicans at 35-58% (-23).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New WSJ poll from Fabrizio/Impact has GCB at D+3, 47-44.

They had R+5 last time they polled in March.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-midterm-prospects-improve-as-races-heat-up-wsj-poll-finds-11662024601

Poll says voters side with Democrats over Republicans 47-28% on abortion.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The ballot return numbers in Nevada are not looking bad for Dems.

They’re reminiscent of the 2018 numbers, which is very good.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1586804261874188288?cxt=HHwWgICy0bSEu4...

Even if the Republicans were to win any of these districts (they won’t) their candidates here would automatically be DOA in the next neutral election year. Especially PA-12. Idk how the Republicans would be able to hold a district that contains Pittsburgh with presidential election year turnout.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

Bennet and Murray have had bigger leads in more polls than Rubio, Budd, and Vance, yet WA and CO are tossups and theirs' aren't. Ridiculous.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just noticed this, Politico moved OH-01 to Leans Democratic yesterday 👀

https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/ohio/house/district-01/

It's not an unreasonable rating. The party that gets drubbed in the midterms does usually get a few pickups. OH-01 is probably at the top of the list.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Levin and Harder losing both seem like reaches to me. I've not really seen any convincing evidence so far that either of them are in danger of losing, but it could happen, I guess.