2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

she was a 'friend'?

developing...

According to PoliticsNJ: "Christie and his wife, and Brown and her husband are personal friends and neighbors."

[Rowan]

Couldn't this actually backfire? Wouldn't it make Christie seem like a good guy that was willing to help out a friend in a time of need?

[Holmes]

Surprised he had money in his pocket. Was thinking he only had donuts.

[War on Want]

Couldn't this actually backfire? Wouldn't it make Christie seem like a good guy that was willing to help out a friend in a time of need?

This is what I thought, it really is a pretty stupid line of attack.

[Bacon King]

It's definitely a pointless attack, but then again Corzine's only real hope to win at this point is go get Christie's favorability numbers down by attacking him on everything, consequences be damned.

[Lunar]

Couldn't this actually backfire? Wouldn't it make Christie seem like a good guy that was willing to help out a friend in a time of need?aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaabbbbbbbbbbbbbb

The idea is to have a stream of ethical stories to tarnish his image as a crime fighter, not to have any one story stick

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Just as a note, Christie is filing amended tax returns for this year and last to account for the $420 of interest income from the loan.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Legislature followers, a new GOP internal poll suggests you hold on to your hats (stolen from PolitickerNJ):

In District 1, Christie leads Corzine by 25 points, 55%-30%.  In 2005, Corzine carried the district 53%-47% against Republican Douglas Forrester.  Republicans win a generic ballot test in the race for Assembly by a 48%-29% margin.

Christie leads Corzine 52%-32% in District 4; Corzine beat Forrester in the Camden-Gloucester district by fourteen points, 57%-43%.  Just 27% of voters say that Assemblyman Paul Moriarty (D-Washington Twp.) deserves re-election, while 40% say it's time for a new person.  Republicans lead the generic ballot test 41%-33%.

In the politically competitive, state employee-rich 14th district, Christie has a 43%-38% lead over Corzine.  Four years ago, Corzine carried Forrester's home by 8 points, 54%-46%.   The GOP leads the generic ballot test by 11 points, 47%-36%.

The real mindblower is this one, however:
In the strongly Democratic 19th district in Middlesex County, Christie has a 12 point lead over Corzine, 45%-33%.  Corzine beat Forrester in 2005 by 24 points, 62%-38%.  Republicans lead the generic Assembly ballot test 46%-31%.  Assemblyman John Wisniewski (D-Sayreville) has a 25% re-elect number, with 42% saying they want a new person.  Wisniewski is temporarily without a running mate: incumbent Joseph Vas (D-Perth Amboy), under indictment on federal and state corruption charges, is not seeking re-election, and his would-be successor, South Amboy Mayor John O'Leary, dropped his Assembly bid on Monday amidst controversies of his own ethical issues.

[DownWithTheLeft]

LD-19 competitive???

Any numbers on 36?  I still think that without 70%+ margins in the EnCap towns it can't be competitive

[Rowan]

LD-1 is DEFINITELY in play. I would expect the Republicans to be favored.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

LD-1 is DEFINITELY in play. I would expect the Republicans to be favored.

Without Van Drew on the ticket, I have to agree.

I also suspect that this poll had less-than-favorable numbers in LD36, otherwise they'd have released them.  (Why poll on 19 and not 36?)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Lege watchers can add one more Assembly seat to the "watch" list: the Union County-based LD22. Again, from PolitickerNJ:

"DeCroce now has a poll showing Christie ahead of Corzine in the Democratic 22nd district by two points, 40%-38%.  The poll shows Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) running first among the four legislative candidates, but also has Republican challenger Martin Marks, the former Scotch Plains mayor, narrowly leading nine-term Assemblyman Jerry Green (D-Plainfield)."

Marty Marks makes the ninth GOP candidate in a D-held districts who appears to actually be competitive, at least according to a lead in partisan polling. This is a key number, as Democrats currently control the Assembly by a 48–32 margin.

The institutional damage to the Democratic Party brand is worse than initially thought—though Democrats would still have to be favored to win this seat; only under the most severe conditions could a poll even be manufactured to show GOP strength in LD22.

Still a giant longshot, but it appears that Republicans actually have enough seats in play to make taking control of the Assembly a possibility.

[Brittain33]

What would a Republican-controlled government in NJ do, I wonder? What happens if there's a Gov. Christie and a Democratic legislature or a Gov. Christie and a split legislature?

I don't see many social issues coming up, aside from same-sex marriage, which is fairly minor. There are major budget problems. Yet people seem most unhappy about local taxes, or at least everyone I know is. What are a Republican government's priorities?

I hope no one seriously argues it's to "clean up government"; at best we'd see a drop in corruption as the new bosses take over, and then a gradual ramp-up to previous levels, as patronage shifts from the cities and the Dem machines to Republicans in swing districts. I'm curious about policy.

[fezzyfestoon]

What would a Republican-controlled government in NJ do, I wonder? What happens if there's a Gov. Christie and a Democratic legislature or a Gov. Christie and a split legislature?

I don't see many social issues coming up, aside from same-sex marriage, which is fairly minor. There are major budget problems. Yet people seem most unhappy about local taxes, or at least everyone I know is. What are a Republican government's priorities?

I hope no one seriously argues it's to "clean up government"; at best we'd see a drop in corruption as the new bosses take over, and then a gradual ramp-up to previous levels, as patronage shifts from the cities and the Dem machines to Republicans in swing districts. I'm curious about policy.

That's the problem, no one knows and Christie's not talking.  There are no specifics, just the not Corzine effect and cleanliness.

[Ronnie]

I wonder what the odds are that Corzine will actually win on election day.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I wonder what the odds are that Corzine will actually win on election day.

5% about

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I wonder what the odds are that Corzine will actually win on election day.

According to Intrade, 45%.

[Ronnie]

I wonder what the odds are that Corzine will actually win on election day.

According to Intrade, 45%.

Seems a little high.  I'd say it's around 30%.

[War on Want]

I wonder what the odds are that Corzine will actually win on election day.

According to Intrade, 45%.

Seems a little high.  I'd say it's around 30%.

I'd go with 20-25%.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd make a comment about this internal polling circle jerk, but instead let's just all imagine the kind of pithy remark Mr. Moderate would make if it were a Democratic internal poll being discussed.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

That's the problem, no one knows and Christie's not talking.  There are no specifics, just the not Corzine effect and cleanliness.

Just out of curiosity, have you ever looked at the issues section of Christie's website?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'd make a comment about this internal polling circle jerk, but instead let's just all imagine the kind of pithy remark Mr. Moderate would make if it were a Democratic internal poll being discussed.

I'd probably post them here and then make some kind of disclaimer about "giant longshot(s)".

For the record, though, I'm not super keen on people like this winning. But I don't doubt that this year, it's a real possibility.

[Tender Branson]

Poll: Christie leads Corzine by three points

By Wally Edge

Republican Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 39%-36% among definite voters, according to a poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a survey firm run by conservative strategist Rick Shaftan.  Independent Christopher Daggett is at 6%.

Corzine leads 52%-13%-9% among liberals, and 40%-34%-4% among moderates.  Christie has a 63%-13%-7% lead among conservatives.  Undecided voters "skew heavily to the left," according to the poll analysis.  Among seniors, Corzine leads 46%-32%-4%.

Corzine has an upside-down 23%-46% favorable rating; Christie is also upside-down at 20%-27%. Daggett remains largely unknown, with favorables of 2%-1%.

President Barack Obama has a 47%-28% favorable rating among likely New Jersey voters.  In a generic ballot test for the State Assembly, Republicans lead 40%-35%.

Among likely voters, Corzine leads Christie 37%-35%, with 6% for Daggett.

"If Corzine gets his liberal/urban/Democratic base together he's going to open up a significant lead, forcing Christie to work the right," Shaftan wrote in his analysis.

The poll was conducted between August 12-21 with a sample size of 319 and a margin of error of +/- 5.49%.  The party breakout among respondents was 43% Democrat, 34% Republican, 23% unaffiliated.

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/32543/poll-christie-leads-corzine-three-points

Don't know what to make of this poll, but it looks sh*tty ...

[cinyc]

Poll: Christie leads Corzine by three points

By Wally Edge

Republican Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 39%-36% among definite voters, according to a poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a survey firm run by conservative strategist Rick Shaftan.  Independent Christopher Daggett is at 6%.

Corzine leads 52%-13%-9% among liberals, and 40%-34%-4% among moderates.  Christie has a 63%-13%-7% lead among conservatives.  Undecided voters "skew heavily to the left," according to the poll analysis.  Among seniors, Corzine leads 46%-32%-4%.

Corzine has an upside-down 23%-46% favorable rating; Christie is also upside-down at 20%-27%. Daggett remains largely unknown, with favorables of 2%-1%.

President Barack Obama has a 47%-28% favorable rating among likely New Jersey voters.  In a generic ballot test for the State Assembly, Republicans lead 40%-35%.

Among likely voters, Corzine leads Christie 37%-35%, with 6% for Daggett.

"If Corzine gets his liberal/urban/Democratic base together he's going to open up a significant lead, forcing Christie to work the right," Shaftan wrote in his analysis.

The poll was conducted between August 12-21 with a sample size of 319 and a margin of error of +/- 5.49%.  The party breakout among respondents was 43% Democrat, 34% Republican, 23% unaffiliated.

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/32543/poll-christie-leads-corzine-three-points

Don't know what to make of this poll, but it looks sh*tty ...

Neighborhood Research is owned by a Lonegan strategist.  They were responsible for Lonegan's internal polling, and claimed the Republican primary race was a dead heat back in April.  We all know how that tuned out.

Let's just wait for a poll from a more reputable pollster before jumping to conclusions about this poll.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Don't know what to make of this poll, but it looks sh*tty ...

You've solved the mystery!  Rick Shaftan has a militantly anti-GOP-establishment agenda, and was essentially the puppet master behind Lonegan's run in the primary.