🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[parochial boy]

I remember a similar back and forth on Macron in 2017, but being progressive on cultural issues is not enough to make a party left wing.

Well, I didn't call the FDP left-wing. I also wouldn't call the Greens left-wing. All I did was pointing at the various similarities between both parties. And these similarities obviously exist.

The FDP quite clearly and explicitely sets itself as being in favour of more free markets, less state intervention, a smaller welfare state. A party that takes those lines can not ever be understood as a party of the political left, regardless of its attitude towards trans rights or refugees.

Again, I haven't even insinuated that the FDP is left-wing. It seem that you have mistaken my argument?

And not that it matters - but I would indeed claim that a party's position on immigration is today a much better indicator of its ideological core than its position on the welfare state. Your categorization appears a little dogmatic/static in this regard.  

And even if they aren't the most emotional topic right now, I dip in and out of following German politics enough to know that things like the Corona debt, or even Hartz IV are topics that get coverage.

Sure, they get coverage. But I still believe that you greatly overestimate their relative importance. Statista has actually a nice poll of Germany's "most important problems" (change between Spring 2018 and Winter 2020):

Environment/Climate Change: 14% -> 27% (No 1 issue after COVID/Health)
Economy: 3% -> 23% (mostly COVID-related)
Education: 22% -> 22%
Inflation: 10% -> 14%
Unemployment: 8% -> 12% (mostly COVID-related)
Housing: 20% -> 12%
(...)
Pensions: 16% -> 7%
Taxes: 3% -> 3%

People care about the general state of the economy or COVID-induced unemployment, no doubt. But they certainly don't care about lower corporate taxes or the like. If anything, I would even assume that a considerable number of center-left voters would support them if it helps the economy to recover.

I mean, I know there is a contextual imperative to downplay this in light of a potential future traffic light coalition - but it doesn't change the fact that a party that supports free markets and a redistribution of wealth in favour of the wealthy is a right wing party.

Again, I think that's a pretty dogmatic view that I would certainly not agree with. Being 'right-wing' is something different in my books - namely, an anti-egalitarian worldview that necessarily transcends the redistributive dimension.

___

Economic positions really don't matter in the German perception of the left-right concept. Right and left are almost fully associated with cultural conservatism or progressivism.

Indeed. In Germany, no one would call a market liberal party a "right-wing" party. It doesn't make any sense.

Generally speaking, my original point was that the FDP on the whole, have a political centre of gravity, and ideological lineage that is to the right of the Social Liberal parties that you find elsewhere in Europe. I used the term right liberal, but if you want to say market liberal, then fine whatever, it's semantics. The point is, was, that using the term "European Liberal" to describe the FDP who, no matter what you think of them are a clearly market oriented party ideogically, is confusing because it either means excluding other European (social) liberal parties from the label - or - it is a label that is so broad that it winds up barely explaining beyond a pretty vague set of generalisations. "European liberal" isn't a good term because there is more to liberalism in Europe than simply "abolish the welfare state and legalise gay marriage". Even if that is a point that many Europeans themselves struggle to comprehend.

And I will note that of the "Most important issues" that you cited - all with the possible exceptions of climate change and education are issues that would probably normally be categorised as "economic" rather than "cultural" ones. And they are all issues where the FDP do stand in a rather different position to the Greens or the SPD.

I'm not really sure why you are so defensive here? I never said they weren't progressive on whatever issues are fashionable today, but no matter how many posters with Christian Lindner in an open necked shirt they come out with, they're still a party that is fundamentally attached to an inegalitarian economic system.

And yes, there is alot to "egalitarianism", but being opposed to massive inequalities of wealth and living standards is pretty much a necessary condition of it.

[Astatine]

Greens have now officially declined to join another Kenya coalition. FDP also de facto ruled out a Germany coalition. This leaves Haselhoff with either Black-Red or Jamaica coalition. The former is definitely most likely at this point.

FDP S-A leader Lydia Hüskens announced she's open to negotiate a Germany coalition, but with hesitation. According to her, the CDU needs to point out why the FDP is needed as additional partner when CDU/SPD already have a majority of one seat (as such tight majorities work in other states as well).

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why it was considered a so important issue the CDU to have more votes than the AfD?

Because many people, journalists included, don't understand our political system and care for symbolic "wins".

I would contest this. They care for symbolic 'wins' BECAUSE they know how the German political system works.

Ok, I'm interested to hear the argument for this position. ;-)

[Astatine]

Saxony-Anhalt will probably get a Germany coalition: Coalition negotiations are set to begin soon.
It already had seemed like a coalition of CDU/SPD would be the less likely option, as this constellation doesn't have a majority in most state legislature committees.

[President Johnson]

Saxony-Anhalt will probably get a Germany coalition: Coalition negotiations are set to begin soon.
It already had seemed like a coalition of CDU/SPD would be the less likely option, as this constellation doesn't have a majority in most state legislature committees.

It's worth mentioning that CDU and SPD alone would have a very narrow majority themselves (49 out of 97 seats; the slimest possible). After initially declining to join a coalition, the FDP quickly walked back. If I recall correctly, this is the first governing coalition that has one partner more than actually needed for a majority. At least in most recent history, and relatively uncommon in Germany.

[Astatine]

Saxony-Anhalt will probably get a Germany coalition: Coalition negotiations are set to begin soon.
It already had seemed like a coalition of CDU/SPD would be the less likely option, as this constellation doesn't have a majority in most state legislature committees.

It's worth mentioning that CDU and SPD alone would have a very narrow majority themselves (49 out of 97 seats; the slimest possible). After initially declining to join a coalition, the FDP quickly walked back. If I recall correctly, this is the first governing coalition that has one partner more than actually needed for a majority. At least in most recent history, and relatively uncommon in Germany.

Fun fact: All Germany coalitions that had been formed before did not rely on a third partner:

- Berlin 1946-1953: From 1948 on, only SPD, CDU and FDP were represented in the Council of Berlin-West, forming an all-party coalition amid the whole crisis around the division of Berlin.
- Bremen 1951-1959: From 1951 until 1955, the SPD with either CDU or FDP only, but opted to form a Red-Yellow-Black coalition. In 1955, the SPD even got an overall majority but decided to continue to govern with CDU and FDP. After 1959, the SPD allied with the Liberals only in spite of an absolute majority.
- Saarland 1955-1956/1957-1959: In the time during the Saar reunification, the pro-German parties CDU, SPD and DPS (which would later merge with the FDP) allied to form a government (although CDU and DPS had a majority on their own). In 1956, the DPS left the coalition due to disagreements with the Minister-President, after his resignation the Liberals participated in the cabinet of his successor.

[Astatine]

The Landtag of Thuringia will not be dissolved. After the red-red-green minority government formed the stability pact with the Christian Democrats following the governmental crisis in February 2020, it was originally planned to schedule elections for 26 September, coinciding with the federal elections.

Four CDU and two Linke deputies opposed the dissolution, with the 2/3 majority needed for the dissolution not possible to achieve without the votes of the AfD - which supports a dissolution.
Hence, R2G retracted the motion for dissolution to not be dependent on the votes from the far-right.

On 26 September, we'll thus have elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as of now.
A dissolution of the Landtag in Thuringia might theoretically still be achievable if Bodo Ramelow submits a motion of confidence.

[President Johnson]

The Landtag of Thuringia will not be dissolved. After the red-red-green minority government formed the stability pact with the Christian Democrats following the governmental crisis in February 2020, it was originally planned to schedule elections for 26 September, coinciding with the federal elections.

Four CDU and two Linke deputies opposed the dissolution, with the 2/3 majority needed for the dissolution not possible to achieve without the votes of the AfD - which supports a dissolution.
Hence, R2G retracted the motion for dissolution to not be dependent on the votes from the far-right.

On 26 September, we'll thus have elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as of now.
A dissolution of the Landtag in Thuringia might theoretically still be achievable if Bodo Ramelow submits a motion of confidence.

What a circus. The real reason CDU MPs blocked the vote is because they're afraid of losing their mandates. As simple as that. The entire situation is basically on the CDU in my opinion and Laschet stays out as well. The CDU didn't even renew the "stability pact" with the minority government so far and isn't very likely to do so. At least the FDP has signaled willingness to negotiate a budget.

It's doubtful Ramelow submits his resignation or demands a confidence vote, especially since he's about to become President of the Bundesrat in fall.

[President Johnson]

AfD Thuringia will introduce a motion of no confidence against Minister-President Bodo Remelow this week. The motion would only succeed with a majority of votes (46 of 90) electing a successor and the AfD has proposed Björn Bernd Höcke. It's doomed to fail obviously, as CDU and FDP have rejected the move immediately.

[Astatine]

AfD Thuringia will introduce a motion of no confidence against Minister-President Bodo Remelow this week. The motion would only succeed with a majority of votes (46 of 90) electing a successor and the AfD has proposed Björn Bernd Höcke. It's doomed to fail obviously, as CDU and FDP have rejected the move immediately.

I despise Höcke, but he knows how to play politics (which makes him especially dangerous). The motion of no confidence was - strategically speaking - the best idea the AfD could have.

Note to non-German users: Motions of no confidence are always constructive, meaning someone else has to be elected in the incumbent's place.

So, if Höcke just gets one more vote than the number of AfD deputies, there will be an immediate outcry that CDU and FDP are not trustworthy.
If Ramelow receives more votes than the number of R2G seats, then the narrative will be why voting CDU when you get Linke in the end.
There will definitely be a lot of abstentions based on the false equivalence of AfD and Linke being equally extreme.

[Pick Up the Phone]

AfD Thuringia will introduce a motion of no confidence against Minister-President Bodo Remelow this week. The motion would only succeed with a majority of votes (46 of 90) electing a successor and the AfD has proposed Björn Bernd Höcke. It's doomed to fail obviously, as CDU and FDP have rejected the move immediately.

I despise Höcke, but he knows how to play politics (which makes him especially dangerous). The motion of no confidence was - strategically speaking - the best idea the AfD could have.

Not so sure. Pretty pointless to do it now when nobody pays real attention to Thuringia and the floods + #Laschetgate + Baerbock's CV continue to dominate the news. It's not February anymore.

I also don't think that Höcke knows 'how to play politics' but consider him rather incompetent. All he knows is how to create media headlines, which is not particularly difficult if you talk about "memorials of shame" and "ausschwitzen". But ultimately, he is much more of a media phenomenon (remember the SPIEGEL cover) than of an actual threat.

[Astatine]

Other news from Thuringia: The FDP will probably lose its parliamentary status, as their deputy Ute Bergner (whose membership has been suspended for a while) officially left the parliamentary group (Thuringia requires its parliamentary group members to also be party members, the legality of Bergner's suspended membership had already been questioned) by joining the esoteric anti-vaxxer party "Citizens for Thuringia". To form a group, the FDP would need 5 deputies, but now they're left with 4 only.

Afaik, the group could still be continue to exist with restricted rights ("Gruppe", the full-right parliamentary group would be a "Fraktion"), but unless their deputies pay the group employees out of their own pocket, the FDP Thuringia will have a challenge in doing actual parliamentary work.

The irony: If Kemmerich and his fellow group members had pledged to vote for a dissolution of the state legislature, the party would've probably taken the threshold again (in spite of all the controversies) - The most recent poll has the FDP Thuringia at 8 %. Now, they're probably stuck without official status for the next three years, lol.

[Astatine]

CDU, SPD and FDP have agreed on a coalition in Saxony-Anhalt. SPD will get the Departments for Environment/Science/Energy/Climate and Social Affairs/Family/Health, while the FDP will lead the Department for Traffic/Digital Affairs/Development. All of the other Departments will be chaired by CDU politicians.

[Jackson Lee]

SPD headed for a big win in Mecklenburg in regional & Bundestag election:

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/mecklenburg-vorpommern.htm

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#mv

[Astatine]

Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will be the next states going to the polls - State elections will take place on the same date as the federal elections.

In Berlin, SPD Mayor Michael Müller has been heading a red-red-green cabinet since the 2016 election. Berlin's political landscape is quite fragmented, and it is quite likely that only a coalition of three parties will able to govern in Germany's capital.
 
Müller is retiring from his position, instead former Family Minister Franziska Giffey, who was District Mayor of Neukölln from 2015 until 2018 is running to succeed him. She resigned from her position because her Ph.D. thesis was found to be plagiarized. Giffey still has some allegations goring around her Master thesis, but according to the most recent poll, the SPD is still number one:

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1430489838734782465

2016 result:

SPD: 21.6 %
CDU: 17.6 %
Linke: 15.6 %
Greens: 15.2 %
AfD: 14.2 %
FDP: 6.7 %

Besides, all districts council are up for election and a non-binding referendum on whether the city government should enforce expropriation to solve the housing crisis. Although the latter might pass considering Berlin's tilt to the Left, it is only advisory and cannot be enforced. Giffey already stated she is opposed to the expropriation, which angered Greens and Linke. Berlin was governed by a SPD-CDU coalition before 2016 (although red-green was mathematically possible), therefore we could see a change in government - Perhaps SPD/CDU/FDP?

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a grand coalition has been governing since 2006 (current record for a continuous coalition without interruption), chaired by the SPD. In 2017, freshly re-elected Minister-President Erwin Sellering resigned from his office due to a cancer diagnosis, and Giffey pre-predecessor as Family Minister Manuela Schwesig took over. She herself was diagnosed with breast cancer in 2019 which lead to her resignation from the position as acting SPD chairwoman.

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1426989681758154755

2016 result:

SPD: 30.6 %
AfD: 20.8 %
CDU: 19.0 %
Linke: 13.2 %
Greens: 4.8 %
FDP: 3.0 %

Thanks to the SPD's strength, a Grand Coalition could be an option again, but it all depends on the minor parties. Greens and FDP have always been struggling in M-V, but they're likely to re-enter the state legislature. Manuela Schwesig will probably be able to choose with whom she wants to govern - red-red-green could be an option, while I believe the FDP is pretty much out as potential partner (the Liberals are strongly opposed to her quite hard stance on Covid regulations).

Schwesig has been seen as rising star within the SPD, so if she wins, there is a good chance we'll hear more of her in the future.

Besides that, local elections will be taking in place in Lower Saxony on 12th of September with potential run-offs scheduled for the federal election date. This will be the last larger scaled vote before the general election - Although results will be strongly influenced by local factors, some performances of parties might be an indication about how things could go two weeks aftermath, just like the local elections that took place on the same date as the European election showed clear signs of the "Green wave".

[DL]

Presumably if the SPD does well nationally and has momentum - it will also lift the SPD in state elections that take place on the same day - meaning its likely the SPD remains the largest party in Berlin.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1430563128908075013
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1430750304526602240

In MV, SPD has gained 13 %p since May, while Greens have lost 8 %p and CDU 6 %p.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Seeing the AfD losing votes always warms my heart.

I know that Schwesig is super popular in MeckPom, but I am not sure about Giffey's personal standing in Berlin as she doesn't seem like a person someone would be really enthusiastic for. I don't know, I assume that this has to do with the fact that she is just super well known. How is it with the other Spitzenkandidaten in Berlin? Do people know who they are?

[Astatine]

Seeing the AfD losing votes always warms my heart.

I know that Schwesig is super popular in MeckPom, but I am not sure about Giffey's personal standing in Berlin as she doesn't seem like a person someone would be really enthusiastic for. I don't know, I assume that this has to do with the fact that she is just super well known. How is it with the other Spitzenkandidaten in Berlin? Do people know who they are?

The Green Spitzenkandidat, who stated some months ago that she doesn't see the SPD as competitor for the 1st place anymore, is neither popular nor well known. In fact, Berlin doesn't seem to like any politicians at all. But it is still somewhat satisfying to see the Green hubris facing reality.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The Green Spitzenkandidat, who stated some months ago that she doesn't see the SPD as competitor for the 1st place anymore, is neither popular nor well known. In fact, Berlin doesn't seem to like any politicians at all. But it is still somewhat satisfying to see the Green hubris facing reality.

Thank you. Yes, I must admit that while I am politically not a fan of Schadenfreude, I was very annoyed with the Green arrogance and self-righteousness of the last two years which was displayed by some in the party and I am very happy for them that they now have to realize that they are not the messianic force the country has desperately waited for.

An approval rating of 11% for the person who claims to be a serious candidate for mayor is absolutely horrible, but so is the 16% for Wegener. 37% for Giffey is not great, but in a factional political system that Berlin has been for 20 years, 37% might be enough. She handled her resignation really well, and she was seen as at least somewhat competent as a federal minister. Good for her.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Pretty sure this has been discussed before but i can't seem to find the post(s), but why did the FDP implode between 2009 and 2014 again? Not just in the 2013 federal election but also in many states?

My understanding is basically:
- party leader was unpopular and ineffective
- neolib agenda blocked due to Merkel's resistance after 2008 crash
- party agenda also became unpopular shortly thereafter
- extreme infighting about the Eurozone bailouts 2010-2012
- infighting also made the party unpopular as they got the image of being an unreliable, chaotic partner
- Merkel's popularity pulled many FDP voters into the CDU, thus falling under the 5% barrier

[Astatine]

Pretty sure this has been discussed before but i can't seem to find the post(s), but why did the FDP implode between 2009 and 2014 again? Not just in the 2013 federal election but also in many states?

They promised a "low, simple and just" tax system in the 2009 federal election. When entering the black-yellow coalition, this promise ended up being nothing basically and the FDP couldn't get their priorities through. The only thing the FDP achieved was a lower hotel tax (that all parties favored in their campaigns), but because the Liberals received some big donations by a major hotel chain company (Mövenpick), that gave especially bad optics as an elitist party for the rich ("Mövenpick-Partei"). Their leading figures at that time (but Lindner, who opted to resign from federal politics to go to NRW) all had poor approval ratings. Additionally, there were some other quarrels over foreign policy, Euro policy and threats to leave the black-yellow government, that proved to be relatively popular through the end of its term, but that credit went to Angela Merkel.

That is also one the reasons why the party was so hesitant to join a Jamaica coalition in 2017. The Liberals just came out of nowhere, lacked parliamentary staff that Greens and CDU/CSU had, so the risk to be wiped off the political landscape forever was quite there.
Btw, it is not only the FDP that has expressed reluctance to ally with CDU/CSU under Merkel. In 2013, a black-green coalition was arithmetically possible. Besides the fact that especially CSU used to be strongly opposed towards the Greens (the party has moderated since), some Greens feared that they would just experience the same fate as SPD and FDP under Merkel, that both got their worst results after 4 years in government with her. The SPD would repeat this trauma in 2017. Merkel has somewhat of a reputation of a "black widow" when it comes to coaliton partners.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Two very good polls for the SPD.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1435839319281963012

Rheinland-Pfalz is governed by Malu Dreyer, who has just in March won a big surprise win with 36%. That poll indicates another 4%. In this poll, Dreyer doesn't even need the FDP in the coalition anymore.

But more importantly, a poll for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern came out, which has an election this September.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1435829906521436160

The best result for the SPD in MV was 40% in 2002, so it is absolutely possible that Manuela Schwesig brings home the best result the SPD has ever achieved in that state-- that is a sentence that you don't hear very often anymore. Anyway, Schwesig is in a very comfortable position. There is no real opposition towards her, she is super popular even among non-SPD-voters, and she will be able to chose any coalition partner she wants. She will have total freedom.

[President Johnson]

These polls are insane. Never thought my party would get 40% anywhere anymore. I hope MV gets a trafficlight coalition and no longer SPD-CDU. Kinda surprising the Greens are so weak there.

It will be interesting to watch if MV and Berlin both go for the SPD; Manuela Schwesig and Franziska Giffey will definitely play an even bigger role in the party and national politics. Both are pragmatic women in their mid 40s with experience and proven ability to win. Both could very well be chancellor material in the future. I like both, though slightly prefer Giffey. Seems like her doctorate issue hasn't damaged her.

[Astatine]

These polls are insane. Never thought my party would get 40% anywhere anymore. I hope MV gets a trafficlight coalition and no longer SPD-CDU. Kinda surprising the Greens are so weak there.

It will be interesting to watch if MV and Berlin both go for the SPD; Manuela Schwesig and Franziska Giffey will definitely play an even bigger role in the party and national politics. Both are pragmatic women in their mid 40s with experience and proven ability to win. Both could very well be chancellor material in the future. I like both, though slightly prefer Giffey. Seems like her doctorate issue hasn't damaged her.

Doubtful. FDP MV is really critical of Schwesig's comparatively strict Covid measures, additionally FDP and Greens are miles apart from each other. Last week, the Green candidate on the 2nd spot for the MV federal list was caught destroying CDU and FDP posters, the two parties are highly unlikely to cooperate in a government. R2G seems more probable, although I wouldn't wonder if Schwesig continued to work with a weakened CDU. She could've switched from Red-Black to Red-Red when she assumed office, but didn't.

I am more skeptical about Giffey, she isn't really popular in Berlin, just less unpopular than the others and universally known unlike the other candidates. Federal coattails will likely play a large role in her presumptive win, I doubt it has much to do with her. Considering her poor approvals, the Ph.D. story definitely affected her image.