Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[weixiaobao]

https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/42dnx6/i_am_the_ownerfounder_of_overtime_politics_ama/

[weixiaobao]

I was saboman on that thread.  It seemed a tad weird that someone would put out like 1000+ dollars per week for no direct financial gain.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dem Numbers are right in line with other polls. And we're supposed to believe this is like Gravis.

[IceSpear]

Dem Numbers are right in line with other polls. And we're supposed to believe this is like Gravis.

Well, we'll see. If Arkansas isn't the massive thrashing that literally everyone else (even Sanders' own campaign!) expects, then Overtime will be vindicated.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ohio polls coming out later today. I'm expecting something around Clinton +9.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ohio polls coming out later today. I'm expecting something around Clinton +9.

They didn't show up.

[The Other Castro]

Ohio Democratic poll:
Clinton - 51%
Sanders - 46%

O'Malley wasn't included because he won't be on the ballot in Ohio.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Ohio Democratic poll:
Clinton - 51%
Sanders - 46%

O'Malley wasn't included because he won't be on the ballot in Ohio.

Great results for Sanders!! He will probably pick up a lot of working class white voters that Hillary got in 2008 which minimizes the non white gap.

[Adam Griffin]

Wait, we're still discussing this "firm" as if it's a real thing? I already showed how they're literally just making up numbers on page 15. Stop discussing this "pollster" as if it's anything other than one bored guy making up numbers and claiming that he has a staff, in the hopes that he'll get a paid client at some point in the future. This thread should be locked and any future posts about it should be deleted.

Real polling costs a lot of money: if he was actually conducting as many polls as he was posting, then the only possible explanation would be that he's a very wasteful multi-millionaire with nothing to do. If he was a very wasteful multi-millionaire with nothing to do, then he'd actually hire the staff necessary to perform real polling with real methodology, real questions and real results. Ever wonder why well-established and respected polling firms aren't cranking out multiple polls of irrelevant states each and every week? Yeah...

[Sorenroy]

http://overtimepolitics.com/hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-by-12-points-in-tennessee-50-38/

Hillary Clinton – 201 – 50%
Bernie Sanders – 152 – 38%
Martin O’Malley – 12 – 3%
Undecided – 36 – 9%

I was looking through the database on the site before I update my Democratic Primary prediction before Iowa and I noticed this incorrect entry:
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?fips=47

In the database it has O'Malley at 30% instead of 3%. As long as these garbage polls are being posted here, they need to be at least accurate. I am not sure how to change the number in the database, or who to contact. Could someone help me out here (even if you do it yourself, knowing how to do it myself would help in the future)?

Also, here's a bit of an update on this post:

Here are some of the tweets from this esteemed and well-regarded pollster's twitter:

https://twitter.com/OverTimePol/status/678404281691697152
https://twitter.com/OverTimePol/status/678402297702010880

Pathetic that the Bernie Sanders folks are so desperate for good news for this failing campaign that they're turning to polls that are probably just completely made up at this point.

Coward took down his tweets! Maybe he just didn't want those tweets to get in the way of his polls, but it's really suspicious to me. Does anyone remember what they said?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

http://overtimepolitics.com/hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-by-12-points-in-tennessee-50-38/

Hillary Clinton – 201 – 50%
Bernie Sanders – 152 – 38%
Martin O’Malley – 12 – 3%
Undecided – 36 – 9%

I was looking through the database on the site before I update my Democratic Primary prediction before Iowa and I noticed this incorrect entry:
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?fips=47

In the database it has O'Malley at 30% instead of 3%. As long as these garbage polls are being posted here, they need to be at least accurate. I am not sure how to change the number in the database, or who to contact. Could someone help me out here (even if you do it yourself, knowing how to do it myself would help in the future)?

Also, here's a bit of an update on this post:

Here are some of the tweets from this esteemed and well-regarded pollster's twitter:

https://twitter.com/OverTimePol/status/678404281691697152
https://twitter.com/OverTimePol/status/678402297702010880

Pathetic that the Bernie Sanders folks are so desperate for good news for this failing campaign that they're turning to polls that are probably just completely made up at this point.

Coward took down his tweets! Maybe he just didn't want those tweets to get in the way of his polls, but it's really suspicious to me. Does anyone remember what they said?

Maybe Dave should have a check that you don't have more than 100 + N/2 %, where N is the number of candidates. You can get a little a little above 100% with rounding.

[RI]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

[The Other Castro]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

I think Atlas would explode if Sanders won Iowa, and Overtime turned out to be closer to the correct numbers than Selzer.

[Zanas]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

I think Atlas would explode if Sanders won Iowa, and Overtime turned out to be closer to the correct numbers than Selzer.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[bigedlb]

If you look at he OP analysis, they say Sanders may have a bigger margin because the OMalley people willnot meet the threshold, and are more likely to go to sanders.    Repuiblicans don't do it that way, and remove the beloe threshold based on the secret ballot.  No second choice for the Rs.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

Considering a 1 point Sanders win is within the MoE of many polls, Overtime looks like they're picking a number that's kind of ballpark but deviations could be explained.

no1currs.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

I think Atlas would explode if Sanders won Iowa, and Overtime turned out to be closer to the correct numbers than Selzer.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Yeah, Selzer wouldn't have too much egg on their face of Bernie won Iowa by a couple of points. There are 3 reasons the results won't agree with a poll
1. Normal statistical or sampling error
2. O'Malley and uncommited not viable and so have to choose one of the 2 major canddates
3. Only delegates and not votes are reported

[This account no longer in use.]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

I think Atlas would explode if Sanders won Iowa, and Overtime turned out to be closer to the correct numbers than Selzer.

Nah. -StatesPoll.com- predicted a Sanders win at the beginning of January.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

I think Atlas would explode if Sanders won Iowa, and Overtime turned out to be closer to the correct numbers than Selzer.

Nah. -StatesPoll.com- predicted a Sanders win at the beginning of January.

I've been reading this StatesPoll.com... it's cute, very Atlasy.

[This account no longer in use.]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

I think Atlas would explode if Sanders won Iowa, and Overtime turned out to be closer to the correct numbers than Selzer.

Nah. -StatesPoll.com- predicted a Sanders win at the beginning of January.

I've been reading this StatesPoll.com... it's cute, very Atlasy.

Yeah. The creator of the website joined Atlas, made a few inane topics about Trump potentially winning California and Connecticut, then left shortly after.

[Mike Thick]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

I think Atlas would explode if Sanders won Iowa, and Overtime turned out to be closer to the correct numbers than Selzer.

Nah. -StatesPoll.com- predicted a Sanders win at the beginning of January.

I've been reading this StatesPoll.com... it's cute, very Atlasy.

Yeah. The creator of the website joined Atlas, made a few inane topics about Trump potentially winning California and Connecticut, then left shortly after.

Don't forget that Black Turnout will go down 2016 (Bad For Dem). Also, Hispanic Influence On 2016 Election Is Greatly Exaggerated, although TRUMP can win 40% Hispanic vote.

Also, I think he was one of the first people to put Trump in all caps (don't quote me on that)

[RI]

Trump by 9: 34-25, Rubio at 14

http://overtimepolitics.com/trump-leads-cruz-by-9-points-in-iowa-on-the-eve-of-the-caucuses-34-25/

[Alcon]

"How the undecideds caucus could make or break one of the lower tier candidates, or it could add a delegate to any of the front runners."

Overtime Politics hot take: Undecided voters may decide to vote for a candidate

[Landslide Lyndon]

Maybe we should have a thread with country club straw polls. They can't be less legitimate than these.

[The Other Castro]

Maybe we should have a thread with country club straw polls. They can't be less legitimate than these.

Well we already have a poll thread for the weather channel...