Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[The Other Castro]

The south continues to be horrible.

Have you ever had shrimp and grits? Try some and rethink your statement.

[The Other Castro]

Still waiting for that Texas poll....

It'll be up pretty soon.

[The Other Castro]

Texas poll conducted over Dec 15-­19, 2015

Hillary Clinton - 55%
Bernie Sanders - 34%
Martin O’Malley - 1%
Undecided - 10%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec15-19DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Texas.pdf

[The Other Castro]

Well, their Vermont poll is coming out on Tuesday, so at this rate I expect Sanders to earn at least 60%.

[The Other Castro]

From their website: "We plan on releasing at least 2/week between the 13th and next summer. In the final months of the 2016 campaign season, we will be releasing polls on nearly a daily basis."

This is either an extremely fast pollster with a large team, or it's just making up numbers.

[The Other Castro]

I emailed them and got this response:

Hi [Name Redacted],

I have a staff of 3 independent contractors who do everything on the phones. Without the crosstab information, the process goes much faster, it's a simple matter of "Are you planning on voting in either the Dem or Rep primary in (whatever state)", if they say yes, they get asked the nominee question depending on whether they said D or R.

From what I gather from my contractors, they can get around 20-25 responses an hour. Once they hit the D or R limit, depending on how each state voted in the last 2 elections, it goes even faster. When I get the last spreadsheet, it's just a matter of copy/pasting the information into 1 spreadsheet and adding everything up.

Without the extra demographic information, the report can be written up extremely quickly and the results can be published.

I realize this isn't perfect, but it's at least getting some information out there.

Starting in January, I'm going to have a question about personal income on the script as well. To me, if I'm going to add something that is going to increase the time spent both calling people and getting the reports ready, it should be a demo that not everyone provides.

I hope I've answered your questions.

- Fred

[The Other Castro]

I don't see why he's so scared, to be honest. It's not like anybody's going to send him anthrax.

Anything's possible.

^He claims to have a small number of people helping him make calls.

That's oddly specific, considering there's probably only about a thousand or so Muslims in Mexico.

Probably the same people that Trump's talking about when he says he has a lot of Muslim and Mexican friends.

Overtime Politics is using Muslim Mexican labor?

[The Other Castro]

Sorry, I realize this is explained earlier in the thread, but can someone remind me: Have they said that they're going to start actually *weighting* by demographics, or just asking demographic questions, but leaving the topline #s unweighted?

I believe they will just be asking the demographic information and using that to provide breakdowns to the responses already received. According to their post, "We have decided to add age, gender, income, and ethnicity to our polling script, and we will be breaking down support based on those groups."

[The Other Castro]

@Adam Griffin

I emailed the site about what you had mentioned, and I got this response:

I double checked the spreadsheet and it does appear as though there is an error in one of the formulas on the Democratic side. The Republican poll doesn't have the error. I'll be posting the updated information shortly.

Thank you for bringing it to my attention.

- Fred

[The Other Castro]

Hillary now has 49% with Asians and Native Americans/Other. For her to be at least 48.5% but under 50% that requires at least 35 of each. Still too high.

I think there's a typographical error in the "Nat Am/Other" category, as 12% undecided (which it lists there) is not possible with both Hillary and Sanders at 49%. My guesstimate for now is to take the undecided equally away from Hillary and Sanders, which puts it at the 44-44 tie I listed above. As for the Asian category, I have no idea.

At least 8.6% of the respondents would have to be Asian for the numbers to make sense, and I'm not from Michigan or anything but I can guarantee you it is not over 8% Asian.

[The Other Castro]

Virginia Democratic poll:

Hillary Clinton - 54%
Bernie Sanders - 39%
Martin O’Malley - 3%
Undecided - 4%

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-15-points-in-virginia-54-39/

[The Other Castro]

Apparently the guy who does these polls is doing an AMA on Reddit today.

Everybody think of questions that only a legitimate pollster could answer.

[The Other Castro]

Nevada Democratic Poll

Hillary Clinton – 47%
Bernie Sanders – 43%
Martin O’Malley – 3%
Undecided – 7%

[The Other Castro]

The guy from Overtime Politics is doing an AMA on Reddit in like 45 minutes.

[The Other Castro]

Ohio Democratic poll:
Clinton - 51%
Sanders - 46%

O'Malley wasn't included because he won't be on the ballot in Ohio.

[The Other Castro]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

I think Atlas would explode if Sanders won Iowa, and Overtime turned out to be closer to the correct numbers than Selzer.

[The Other Castro]

Maybe we should have a thread with country club straw polls. They can't be less legitimate than these.

Well we already have a poll thread for the weather channel...

[The Other Castro]

Democratic AL Poll: Clinton 54-43 ()
http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-11-points-in-alabama-54-43/

Blacks: 69-29 Clinton
Hispanic: 58-37 Clinton
White: 53-44 Sanders

Sample was 58% white. Is that too much for Alabama?

This really seems off.

Gee, almost like it's completely made up numbers pulled out of thin air?

The Colorado numbers are out of thin air, Alabama numbers come from more of a humid and subtropical air quality.

[The Other Castro]

Maine Democratic Poll:
Sanders - 56%
Clinton - 41%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb3-Feb5DemocraticCaucusPoll-Maine.pdf

[The Other Castro]

Even if their New Hampshire poll does fine, I'm going to remain completely skeptical about this firm.  Tarot readings are right sometimes too, and they're much more complex than creating a fake poll topline.

They have a ton of other polls to shape their results to in IA and NH, though we'll see how they really do in NV and later states with scant polling data.

[The Other Castro]

THIS IS NOT A REAL POLL. THIS IS SOME BLOGGER IDIOT WHO JUST PULLS NUMBERS OUT OF HIS ASS.

So, this guy doesn't even poll anybody?  I have no idea what the deal is.

Many have proven that some of his numbers are literally impossible. For example Adam Griffin noted he had a Michigan poll with a subsample of the "Other" race showing Hillary 46-Bernie 45. However the percentage of voters in Michigan who aren't white, black or Hispanic is only 3%. To have a one percentage point difference like that, you'd need a sample of around 100, even with rounding it'd probably require more than 70. The TOTAL sample size of the poll was about 400, so it would require that almost 20% of respondents be not white, black or Hispanic for those numbers to even be conceivable.

Just one example. I'm sure you can find countless other examples of implausible nonsense if you page through the archives. The fact that so many dumbs think this crap is real is unbelievable.

It is also worth noting that this operation simply posts polls for free with no way to monetize them, yet the expenses of conducting as many polls as it does would have to be at least $10k/week.

That's why we have the megathread, so they don't get their own threads in the primary board.

[The Other Castro]

Joevertime Politics is a highly respected pollster. He included percentage symbols and everything.

[The Other Castro]

Can we please stop the sh**tposting in this thread. Thanks.

Agreed, I can't believe people are just making up poll numbers and posting them in this thread.  It's despicable.

Being Hypocritical, even jokingly, is never funny. Don't forget your own offenses.

I think they call that satire.

[The Other Castro]

Final SC Republican Poll:

Donald Trump – 31%
Marco Rubio  – 25%
Ted Cruz – 18%
John Kasich – 10%
Jeb Bush – 7%
Ben Carson – 5%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb17-Feb19RepublicanPrimaryPoll-SouthCarolina.pdf

Not saying it is, but if this was a confirmed real pollster, it would be in line with the Opinion Savvy in that there is a late surge for Rubio.

[The Other Castro]

Final SC Republican Poll:

Donald Trump – 31%
Marco Rubio  – 25%
Ted Cruz – 18%
John Kasich – 10%
Jeb Bush – 7%
Ben Carson – 5%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb17-Feb19RepublicanPrimaryPoll-SouthCarolina.pdf

Not saying it is, but if this was a confirmed real pollster, it would be in line with the Opinion Savvy in that there is a late surge for Rubio.

Or you know, releasing plausible numbers that line up with the consensus?

No other pollsters besides Opinion Savvy, which just came up pretty recently, and ARG, have shown Rubio doing so well.