Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results of post-2nd debate Atlas Straw Poll: Clinton 49-39-7
 
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=223035.0

Results of this poll: Clinton 49-39-4

Odd that it's so similar.....

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lucy Flores, Dina Titus & Masteo-Cortez

I am sorry, but if Flores is the nominee, Hardy will be re-elected. Democrats need to nominate Kihuen if they want that seat. And Masto's odds of winning are roughly a coin flip, Heck is a great recruit for the republicans.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't see why Hispanics would make Bernie lose by more than 12. California's Field poll had Bernie down only 12 points.

So no one took the bait? California has even more Hispanics. And primaries tend to be better for Hillary than caucuses. And yet it's the same 12 points.

White Democrats in California are much more liberal than white Democrats in Nevada.

Well, something had to cancel out the fact that California has more Hispanics and is a primary and not a caucus. And Calfiornia certainly has white conservadems. Even the bay area has ones like Chuck Reed and Eric Swalwell.

FTR, Swalwell supports O'Malley

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hillary is going down!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who are Overtime Politics, why are they polling my state, and why is Sanders supposedly doing so good in a state completely in the Clinton-Trump mold?

This is Warren's home state - she was floated as a Clinton alternative until Sanders entered, and has notably refused to endorse Hillary. Plus, the state is very liberal unless it's a gubernatorial race and/or Coakley is the den nominee.

It will probably be Sanders's 4th best state on Super Tuesday, after VT, CO, and MN.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Arkansas hasn't been polled in Eons, so no guarantee this is incorrect. But still take this with a huge grain of salt.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Junk Poll for not including Huckabee in his HOME STATE!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton is going down!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Oh stop it. In fact, that result in WV would be MORE generous to Clinton than other polls of the state - the last poll there had her up only 4 points.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Oh stop it. In fact, that result in WV would be MORE generous to Clinton than other polls of the state - the last poll there had her up only 4 points.

That is true, but that was with Biden in the race and he was in fact ahead of Sanders.

I think Sanders could get 40% in WV.

No, it was w/out Biden:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#cite_note-http:.2F.2Fwww.wvgazettemail.com-154

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If it was a pro-Sanders polling place making up numbers, why do through the trouble of doing GOP polls as well?

To appear legitimate

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I emailed them and got this response:

Hi [Name Redacted],

I have a staff of 3 independent contractors who do everything on the phones. Without the crosstab information, the process goes much faster, it's a simple matter of "Are you planning on voting in either the Dem or Rep primary in (whatever state)", if they say yes, they get asked the nominee question depending on whether they said D or R.

From what I gather from my contractors, they can get around 20-25 responses an hour. Once they hit the D or R limit, depending on how each state voted in the last 2 elections, it goes even faster. When I get the last spreadsheet, it's just a matter of copy/pasting the information into 1 spreadsheet and adding everything up.

Without the extra demographic information, the report can be written up extremely quickly and the results can be published.

I realize this isn't perfect, but it's at least getting some information out there.

Starting in January, I'm going to have a question about personal income on the script as well. To me, if I'm going to add something that is going to increase the time spent both calling people and getting the reports ready, it should be a demo that not everyone provides.

I hope I've answered your questions.

- Fred

So they don't control for ages and race?

Not at this point.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If they really want it to be quick, it's simple:

1. Age
2. Gender
3. Race
4. Income
5. Democratic or Republican primary?
6. Their actual candidate choice

6 questions. Should be able to be finished rather quickly.

Yeah, but then people start expecting you to make complex tables breaking everything down along demographic lines - which is work.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

dem - vt http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec24-27DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Vermont.pdf

Last poll in Vermont (Castleton) was 65-14 Sanders. So this 63-29 result appears to indicate undecideds are breaking heavily towards Clinton. Troubling.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If this pollster turns out to be accurate, then it will mean that demographic weighting is unncessary.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's no guarantee they'll weight their data based on it, but it at least will give us a better sense of whether their numbers are even close to being accurate.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^They aren't starting demographic questions until their Michigan poll on the 4th.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't see why he's so scared, to be honest. It's not like anybody's going to send him anthrax.

Anything's possible.

^He claims to have a small number of people helping him make calls.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I expected Missouri to be somewhat close due to it being almost entirely white outside of its most urban areas, but this close?!? Wow, Go Sanders!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec31-Jan3DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Michigan.pdf

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

These demographic numbers don't exactly vouch for these polls being accurate:

Vote by Race:

White: Sanders 43/41
Black: Clinton 63/31 (?!?!?!?)
Latino: Clinton 48/40 (HUH?)
Asian: Clinton 45/44 (WTF?)
Other: Clinton 44/42

Vote by Age:

18-30: 47-39 Sanders
31-45: 49-36 Clinton
46-59: 47-41 Clinton ()
60+: 48-44 Clinton (WTF???)

Gender at least seems okay - Clinton is ahead 43/42 with Men, 52/37 with Women

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For now, I have decided to not include this specific poll, and most future overtime polls, in my map of the polls for the democratic nomination. The demographic breakdowns just do not seem plausible enough, and the Michigan poll currently included in the map did not include Biden or Warren. I will keep the overtime polls that are already in the map in there for now, but will not be adding any more of them unless it is for a state with no previous polls that did not include Warren and/or a significant Biden showing, until I am convinced that this polling company is on to something real with its demographic breakdowns.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This delay in the release of the MO republican poll is interesting to say the least. I don't think we've ever had a polling company release a poll literally in the middle of the night, assuming he doesn't hold off until the morning.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If this guy is actually ambitious enough to be coming up with demographic tables and topline numbers - which include an exact number of people who selected each topline option - completely out of his head, without calling anyone or having any help - essentially just trying to 'read the tea leaves', then a part of me is honestly impressed, especially if he keeps "polls" coming well into 2016 and does eventually provide a quasi-physical address as promised. I'm not quite sure what the motivation would be for creating a long-running "polling company parody", especially since his email is already littered with death threats less than a month into it, but whatever. I honestly think it is more likely that this is real polling, just without demographic weighting, than some random guy literally making up numbers and demographic tables for (potentially) months on end. Once we get to the actual primaries and caucuses, we will have a real answer on exactly how much demographic weighting matters.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LOL