Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Overtime saying Sanders is ahead? Pop the popcorn to watch Hillary's glorious victory tomorrow.

[RBH]

Fun with Overtime "splits"

Whites (181, 59%): Bernie 57, Hillary 38 (103-69)
Af-Am (38, 12%): Hillary 68, Bernie 29 (26-11)
Hispanics (72, 24%): Hillary 58, Bernie 39 (42-28)
Asians [8]: Bernie 62.5, Hillary 37.5 (5-3)
NA/Other (6): Hillary 67, Bernie 33 (4-2)

1/17-20

Whites (184, 61%): Bernie 50, Hillary 36 (92-66)
Af-Am (24, 8%): Hillary 75, Bernie 21 (18-5)
Hispanics (54, 18%): Hillary 67, Bernie 28 (36-15)
Asians [8]: Hillary 62.5, Bernie 37.5 (5-3)
NA/Other (32, 11%): Hillary 50, Bernie 44 (16-14)

Rough month for "Native American/Other" respondents.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Fun with Overtime "splits"

Whites (181, 59%): Bernie 57, Hillary 38 (103-69)
Af-Am (38, 12%): Hillary 68, Bernie 29 (26-11)
Hispanics (72, 24%): Hillary 58, Bernie 39 (42-28)
Asians [8]: Bernie 62.5, Hillary 37.5 (5-3)
NA/Other (6): Hillary 67, Bernie 33 (4-2)

1/17-20

Whites (184, 61%): Bernie 50, Hillary 36 (92-66)
Af-Am (24, 8%): Hillary 75, Bernie 21 (18-5)
Hispanics (54, 18%): Hillary 67, Bernie 28 (36-15)
Asians [8]: Hillary 62.5, Bernie 37.5 (5-3)
NA/Other (32, 11%): Hillary 50, Bernie 44 (16-14)

Rough month for "Native American/Other" respondents.

Can someone please put this in English? Good lord what is the size of the MoE for these? lol.

[RBH]

5.6% MoE.

But, if Hillary carries Hispanics by 20 points, she likely carries the 1st CD, giving her a 3-2 split, and either a 18-17 loss or 19-16 win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Those numbers are about right for white voters and others, but over-sampling Latinos and slightly under for AA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Those numbers are about right for white voters and others, but over-sampling Latinos and slightly under for AA.

If they're over-sampling Latinos, then perhaps Sanders is leading by even more.

Com'on Nevada, you can do it! Rebel against the Dynasty!!!!!!!!!!

[Eraserhead]

Those numbers are about right for white voters and others, but over-sampling Latinos and slightly under for AA.

If they're over-sampling Latinos, then perhaps Sanders is leading by even more.

Com'on Nevada, you can do it! Rebel against the Dynasty!!!!!!!!!!

I'd love for Sanders to win and maybe he will but...

THESE. ARE. NOT. REAL. POLLS.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Those numbers are about right for white voters and others, but over-sampling Latinos and slightly under for AA.

If they're over-sampling Latinos, then perhaps Sanders is leading by even more.

Com'on Nevada, you can do it! Rebel against the Dynasty!!!!!!!!!!

I'd love for Sanders to win and maybe he will but...

THESE. ARE. NOT. REAL. POLLS.

Lol, indeed. But it's funny to see Wulfric invest.

[IceSpear]

Why did my thread get deleted for trolling but this one still exists?

[Tender Branson]

Why did my thread get deleted for trolling but this one still exists?

Because you are an actual troll, but we are still waiting for confirmation by some media outlet that Overtime is in fact a fake pollster.

Of course, this could take years => ARG is still around for example, but they might just be bad and not a fraud. Who knows.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why did my thread get deleted for trolling but this one still exists?

Because you literally tried to trick people into believing it was an actual Quinnipiac poll. If you came up with a fake name or something, fine, though it may have been merged into the random internal polls thread. But you can't try to impersonate a real pollster.

[IceSpear]

Why did my thread get deleted for trolling but this one still exists?

Because you literally tried to trick people into believing it was an actual Quinnipiac poll. If you came up with a fake name or something, fine, though it may have been merged into the random internal polls thread. But you can't try to impersonate a real pollster.

Fine, I'll start my own polling company. With blackjack. And hookers.

[RBH]

the one thing ARG has going for it is that people have figured out the name of the guy running ARG. That hasn't happened yet with Overtime. Overtime sorta seems like Pharos Research (a banned by 538 pollster)

[Eraserhead]

ARG is awful but they do at least produce genuine polls. The best thing about them is that you can safely assume that the exact opposite of what they're showing is what's actually happening.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Post-Primary Evaluation

Overtime said:

Trump 31
Rubio 25 (Difference of 6 with 1st)
Cruz 18 (Difference of 7 with 2nd)
Kasich 10 (Difference of 8)
Bush 7 (Difference of 3)
Carson 5 (Difference of 2)
Undecided 4

Actual Result:

Trump 33 (+2)
Rubio 22 (Difference of 11) (-3)
Cruz 22 (Difference of <1) (+4)
Bush 8 (Difference of 14) (+1)
Kasich 8 (Difference of <1) (-2)
Carson 7 (Difference of 1) (+2)

Aside from Cruz, no huge blunders on the percentages. Lots of error in terms of the margin between each candidate though.

For the Dems:

Overtime: Sanders +2
Actual Result (98% reporting): Clinton +6

Utterly Terrible.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alaska:

KING TRUMP 41
Cruz 27
Rubio 15
Carson 6
Kasich 6


http://overtimepolitics.com/alaskans-love-trump-donald-trump-leads-ted-cruz-by-14-points-41-27/


South Carolina:

Clinton 63
Sanders 34

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-29-points-in-south-carolina-63-34/

[IceSpear]

Overtime Politics is the best. They were only off by 48 points in Alabama.

[Boston Bread]

Overtime Politics is the best. They were only off by 48 points in Alabama.

Pretty terrible, but somehow Mason Dixon's Clinton +34 poll on 1/20 in MN was worse. 55 points off

[Holmes]

Overtime Politics is the best. They were only off by 48 points in Alabama.

Pretty terrible, but somehow Mason Dixon's Clinton +34 poll on 1/20 in MN was worse. 55 points off

I don't think that was a poll of likely caucus goers...or even registered voters.

[Tender Branson]

So, what exactly happened with this "pollster" ?

No updates or new "polls" scheduled for quite some time now ...

[Landslide Lyndon]

So, what exactly happened with this "pollster" ?

No updates or new "polls" scheduled for quite some time now ...

He must have been grounded by his mother.

[Wells]

So, what exactly happened with this "pollster" ?

No updates or new "psychic readings" scheduled for quite some time now ...

There is nothing on their website since February. It looks like this "pollster" mysteriously disappeared once it looked like Bernie Sanders wasn't going to win anymore.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So, what exactly happened with this "pollster" ?

No updates or new "psychic readings" scheduled for quite some time now ...

There is nothing on their website since February. It looks like this "pollster" mysteriously disappeared once it looked like Bernie Sanders wasn't going to win anymore.

GTFO? Really?

Meh, he probably couldn't cover his phone bill.

[IceSpear]

So, what exactly happened with this "pollster" ?

No updates or new "psychic readings" scheduled for quite some time now ...

There is nothing on their website since February. It looks like this "pollster" mysteriously disappeared once it looked like Bernie Sanders wasn't going to win anymore.

Something tells me this "polling firm" is going to mysteriously vanish into thin air the second Bernie Sanders suspends his campaign.

Though it seems like they gave up after a de facto loss instead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How hilarious is it to read this thread in hindsight? Especially the ones defending them.