COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1425086627232325632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Not only are Republicans the most dangerous enemy to American democracy, they are also an enemy to the health of the American people.

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

[Tekken_Guy]

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

Your health is also under threat. I don't know or care about "variants," that's effectively unpredictable, but if the hospitals are full, that's a big problem. No vaccine for auto accidents, and outcomes get dramatically worse if you have to postpone trauma care by an hour or three. That's the health impact to be concerned about — not the individual patients but the fact that it's flooding the system.

I meant as in a direct threat from the virus itself.

[Tekken_Guy]

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

Your health is also under threat. I don't know or care about "variants," that's effectively unpredictable, but if the hospitals are full, that's a big problem. No vaccine for auto accidents, and outcomes get dramatically worse if you have to postpone trauma care by an hour or three. That's the health impact to be concerned about — not the individual patients but the fact that it's flooding the system.

I meant as in a direct threat from the virus itself.

What difference does it make if it's a direct or indirect threat? You have to look at, and consider both.
If you are in a bunker that will save you from the explosive, immediate effects of a hydrogen bomb, you also need to consider if the bunker is properly sealed to help you from the radioactive fallout that comes soon after.

Isn't the solution here just to get more people vaccinated? The smaller the vulnerable population, the less stress there is on the hospital system.

[Tekken_Guy]

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

Your health is also under threat. I don't know or care about "variants," that's effectively unpredictable, but if the hospitals are full, that's a big problem. No vaccine for auto accidents, and outcomes get dramatically worse if you have to postpone trauma care by an hour or three. That's the health impact to be concerned about — not the individual patients but the fact that it's flooding the system.

I meant as in a direct threat from the virus itself.

What difference does it make if it's a direct or indirect threat? You have to look at, and consider both.
If you are in a bunker that will save you from the explosive, immediate effects of a hydrogen bomb, you also need to consider if the bunker is properly sealed to help you from the radioactive fallout that comes soon after.

Isn't the solution here just to get more people vaccinated? The smaller the vulnerable population, the less stress there is on the hospital system.

No one with more than half-a-brain is saying otherwise.
But as we continue to slowly convince more and more people to get vaccinated, there isn't anything wrong with taking additional mitigation efforts to reduce and slow the transmission down (to help "the hospital system").
If you want to do your part to help, go on other forums which are pro-trump/Conservative, and tell "your brothers" that they are idiots for not getting vaccinated simply to "own the liberals." Maybe they will listen to you, versus them thinking they must be forced to obey "science and facts" coming from the left.

Except I'm not too much of a Trump supporter and I'll just be dismissed as a RINO. Besides, I barely even know any anti-vaxxers anyway.

[Tekken_Guy]

Where does the ignorance from this video come from? This is the richest area of Tennessee according to the journalist so you can't blame economic anxieties. I hear one of the maniacs yelling about god and hell, so is it based in religious craziness?

Technically I think Brentwood and Belle Meade may be richer, but stil..

[Tekken_Guy]

This may or may not be true, but as of right now I still think every county should not take any chances and wait for more data before agreeing with South Africa's health minister

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464327805836083201

I've seen data from Portugal (86%) and Gibraltar (100% vaccinated) suggesting the vaccinated represent most of the hospitalizations, which is why countries were panicking yesterday.  However, the death rate is better than when people were not vaccinated.  

Also, we have no idea whether the people dying are immunocompromised. 

Another thing. All the concern is based on its transmissibility, but how deadly the new variant isn't really being talked about. If it follows historical patterns and lose their lethality as they become more transmissible, then it's a sign the pandemic is on its last legs.

[Tekken_Guy]

This may or may not be true, but as of right now I still think every county should not take any chances and wait for more data before agreeing with South Africa's health minister

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464327805836083201

I've seen data from Portugal (86%) and Gibraltar (100% vaccinated) suggesting the vaccinated represent most of the hospitalizations, which is why countries were panicking yesterday.  However, the death rate is better than when people were not vaccinated.  

Also, we have no idea whether the people dying are immunocompromised. 

Another thing. All the concern is based on its transmissibility, but how deadly the new variant isn't really being talked about. If it follows historical patterns and lose their lethality as they become more transmissible, then it's a sign the pandemic is on its last legs.

I think lethality is most important.  I can't comment on the other thing you said cause I'm not competent on that particular sub-issue. 

There are examples of viruses becoming more deadly and transmissable, so I don't find it helpful for scientists to base their opinions on that assumption. 

I don't know of any examples of that ever happening, so I'd take that as the exception rather than the rule.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't know of any examples of that ever happening, so I'd take that as the exception rather than the rule.

Delta is an example.

The death rate is too low for there to be significant selection pressure against a more deadly variant. It can go either way.

I don't understand what you mean by that.

[Tekken_Guy]

Masks are definitely not costless. 

I have been forced to teach wearing a mask this semester, and it is a total pain in the ass.  The worst of it is during student presentations.  Half of the students don’t speak loudly enough to be heard in the back of the class wearing a mask, and I have to constantly be asking them to speak louder.

Last year, we were allowed to use face shields, but for some reason my university decided to ban them this semester despite the fact that we also have a vaccine mandate (which is a very good thing!) for all faculty and students.

My university has both mask and vaccine mandates in place as well. As I've said before, I expect for college campuses to cling on to mask mandates for longer than most businesses and institutions. At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if mask mandates are still in force on most campuses a year or two from now. They may even become permanent.

Mask mandates shouldn't be required in what are essentially bubbles of 100% vaccinated populations. If anything, college campuses should be amongst the first places to drop mask mandates.

I believe at this point people need to be responsible for protecting themselves from the virus. It's not my responsibility if somebody else gets COVID, just like it's not my responsibility to protect others from getting the common cold or the flu.

In my opinion, there's no point in wearing a mask if you're vaccinated, unless you have serious underlying health issues that still put you at risk.

[Tekken_Guy]

No more vax mandates

Biden should relax this...

I'm perfectly fine with vaccine mandates.

Mask mandates, on the other hand, need to go.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the reports are true that Omicron is considerably milder than past strains, isn't this a good thing?  Don't we want it yo become the dominant strain?  Zero covid is never going to happen, but it will eventually likely be pretty harmless.

Though, unless it significantly evades natural immunity, I think much of the South will have a hard time spiking again, at least not to the extent of previous waves.

Yes. IF it is considerably milder.
Emphasis on IF, because that is not known.

Isn’t there usually a trade off between virulence and transmissibility? If a virus kills its host it dies off with it.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the reports are true that Omicron is considerably milder than past strains, isn't this a good thing?  Don't we want it yo become the dominant strain?  Zero covid is never going to happen, but it will eventually likely be pretty harmless.

Though, unless it significantly evades natural immunity, I think much of the South will have a hard time spiking again, at least not to the extent of previous waves.

Yes. IF it is considerably milder.
Emphasis on IF, because that is not known.

Isn’t there usually a trade off between virulence and transmissibility? If a virus kills its host it dies off with it.

If the virus is less prone to kill a victim, yes, it will have a evolutionary plus. But death rate and hospitalization rate doesn't neccesarily correlate well, and the latter one is the most important one for the society (pressure on the health system).

Has a virus ever evolved to get both more contagious and cause more severe illness at the same time? What’s probably the threshold for hospitalizations that is needed for COVID to not be a threat to hospitals anymore?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1469299391974367232

Yep. Exactly, what I have been saying. If you have immunity - due to vaccination or infection - you're fine - you're as safe if not safer as against flu, but we already knew it. So why might Omicron still be a game-changer? Well, perhaps, the herd immunity is out of equation. If so, the unvaccinated elder/fatso who was earlier shielded by herd immunity are no longer safe, because Omicron is more immunity evasive than Delta (possibly by a lot??). Given that US is relatively low vax, might be bad.

Well there's no evidence Omicron poses the same risk to the vaccinated as it is to the unvaccinated. Partial immunity is still better than zero immunity. We should just continue promoting masks and vaccines and this will be no less manageable than delta.

[Tekken_Guy]

GWU going to online instruction. Unreal. Casedemic is here

I am telling y’all right now:

If a case surge costs us the nfl, cfb playoffs, in person instruction, etc

The dems will be absolutely blasted into the moon by voters in November.

I’m talking a 45 seat loss

I’m not saying you’re wrong about Dems taking a beating.

But lockdowns and school/work from home largely occurred under Trump’s administration. More so than Biden’s.

Well Trump isn’t President anymore. So people aren’t going to blame him for anything that is going on under Biden’s watch.

[Tekken_Guy]

GWU going to online instruction. Unreal. Casedemic is here

I am telling y’all right now:

If a case surge costs us the nfl, cfb playoffs, in person instruction, etc

The dems will be absolutely blasted into the moon by voters in November.

I’m talking a 45 seat loss

I’m not saying you’re wrong about Dems taking a beating.

But lockdowns and school/work from home largely occurred under Trump’s administration. More so than Biden’s.

Well Trump isn’t President anymore. So people aren’t going to blame him for anything that is going on under Biden’s watch.

You're not wrong.

My point is that lockdowns were almost entirely under Trump.  So stop with the "dEmS aRe LoCkInG uS dOwN!" nonsense.

Trump wasn’t the one ordering lockdowns across the country in 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

GWU going to online instruction. Unreal. Casedemic is here

I am telling y’all right now:

If a case surge costs us the nfl, cfb playoffs, in person instruction, etc

The dems will be absolutely blasted into the moon by voters in November.

I’m talking a 45 seat loss

I’m not saying you’re wrong about Dems taking a beating.

But lockdowns and school/work from home largely occurred under Trump’s administration. More so than Biden’s.

Well Trump isn’t President anymore. So people aren’t going to blame him for anything that is going on under Biden’s watch.

You're not wrong.

My point is that lockdowns were almost entirely under Trump.  So stop with the "dEmS aRe LoCkInG uS dOwN!" nonsense.

Trump wasn’t the one ordering lockdowns across the country in 2020.

In March of 2020 Trump actually praised governors for locking down their states

President Trump applauded California Gov. Gavin Newsom and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo for taking "strong and bold steps" by ordering all nonessential workers to stay home” in order to stop the spread of the coronavirus

Looking back, it's clear that in the early months of the pandemic Trump had no problem with state lockdowns and he supported the governor who did it...

Well if any lockdowns happen in the future, people are going to blame the Democrats for it.

[Tekken_Guy]

GWU going to online instruction. Unreal. Casedemic is here

I am telling y’all right now:

If a case surge costs us the nfl, cfb playoffs, in person instruction, etc

The dems will be absolutely blasted into the moon by voters in November.

I’m talking a 45 seat loss

I’m not saying you’re wrong about Dems taking a beating.

But lockdowns and school/work from home largely occurred under Trump’s administration. More so than Biden’s.

Well Trump isn’t President anymore. So people aren’t going to blame him for anything that is going on under Biden’s watch.

You're not wrong.

My point is that lockdowns were almost entirely under Trump.  So stop with the "dEmS aRe LoCkInG uS dOwN!" nonsense.

Trump wasn’t the one ordering lockdowns across the country in 2020.

In March of 2020 Trump actually praised governors for locking down their states

President Trump applauded California Gov. Gavin Newsom and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo for taking "strong and bold steps" by ordering all nonessential workers to stay home” in order to stop the spread of the coronavirus

Looking back, it's clear that in the early months of the pandemic Trump had no problem with state lockdowns and he supported the governor who did it...

Well if any lockdowns happen in the future, people are going to blame the Democrats for it.

Did you blame Trump?

Even during Trump’s term, Republicans were the ones pushing to reopen while Democrats were the ones who favored lockdowns.

[Tekken_Guy]

DePaul has a vaccine mandate.

https://twitter.com/CollegeFix/status/1470377971940691970

I’d prefer they didn’t do this at all, but thankfully it’s just for two weeks.

[Tekken_Guy]

DePaul has a vaccine mandate.

https://twitter.com/CollegeFix/status/1470377971940691970

I’d prefer they didn’t do this at all, but thankfully it’s just for two weeks.

Where have I heard this before.

Let’s just hope they’re able to keep their word here on no extended lockdowns.

[Tekken_Guy]

I've been exposed to Covid three times at my college in the past few weeks. Two times we had to move class online. And just yesterday in one of my classes a lot of students said they were uncomfortable with taking their finals in person. I expressed that because we were all vaccinated, we had nothing to worry about regarding catching COVID and felt my class was overreacting to the news.

I fear we're going to focus too much at stopping chains of transmission rather than reducing severe outcomes.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/adamlongoTV/status/1471950816059793422


First lockdowns. Of course, it's the [overrrepresentedly brown poor] kids that are hurt. Dems.

Republicans may actually have a shot at holding the governorship if this is the direction we’re going.

[Tekken_Guy]

Covid is over.

Nope, not even close.

For vaccinated Americans, COVID is over.

Unfortunately it isn't until the unvaccinated stop filling up hospitals and causing problems or deaths of people who need to go there for something else.

It will be if COVID becomes mild enough and the vulnerable population shrinks to a point to bring hospitalizations down to a manageable level.

[Tekken_Guy]

Jesus, the liberal egghead outlets like NYT, Washington Post, and NPR are in full-on propaganda mode right now. They're putting out daily headlines fear-mongering about Omicron and not-so-subtly smearing the heroes that are trying to make sure school actually stays open. If these social media companies actually wanted to be consistent about their misinformation policies they would ban or at least threaten to ban these publications too. I don't want that to happen, but I'm just saying that the COVID lies go far beyond the Q people.

In a revote I think virginia would be very close between trump and biden.. considering all this hysteria

Yup. Virginia’s electoral votes will of course be awarded to Trump either way in 2024, but at this rate the GOP may win the state outright anyway.

https://twitter.com/stephenmoore/status/1477011711605587977?s=21

Trump will not be winning Virginia’s electoral votes under any scenario. First of all it’s far from certain he’ll be the GOP nominee. And while another Republican like DeSantis has a tiny shot at flipping the state, Trump himself does not. And I don’t think Youngkin would go through with overturning a Democratic win in the stets.