Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

IPEC poll for president and governors in some key states was just released. Here are the results for president:

Lula (PT) 44%
Bolsonaro (PL) 32%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 6%
Simone Tebet (MDB) 2%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU) 1%
Blank/Null/None 8%
Undecided 7%

Runoff is:

Lula 51%
Bolsonaro 35%
Blank/Null/None 9%
Undecided 5%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro government:

Good or Great 29%
Regular 26%
Bad or Awful 43%
Don’t Know 1%

Approval of Bolsonaro government:

Approve 37%
Disapprove 57%
Don’t Know 6%

Not much difference from the FSB poll other than the number of blanks/nulls/none/undecided are higher here, so everyone’s numbers are slightly down in comparison to the FSB poll…

Which is good for Lula tbh, because it ups his valid vote % since those aren’t counted. Lula would win in 1st round according to this IPEC poll because he reaches 51,8% in the valid votes count:

Lula 44%
Bolsonaro + Everyone Else 41%
Invalid votes 15%

Valid votes sum up 85%, so Lula is with 44/85 = 51,8% approximately. And Bolsonaro with 37,6% (32/85).

[Red Velvet]

IPEC President poll (1st round) per State points to a Lula victory in all three major southeastern states:

São Paulo - Lula +12
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 31%
Ciro 7%

Rio de Janeiro - Lula +4
Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 37%
Ciro 5%

Minas Gerais - Lula +13
Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 29%
Ciro 5%

Reminding that it’s the Northeast vote that pushes the strongest in favor of the PT, so Bolsonaro should’ve comfortably been winning those three big states if he wanted a chance.

The fact he’s losing, even if very slightly, in F-ing Rio de Janeiro (his home state and current militia-land and political wasteland) is very telling. He got large leads in Rio and São Paulo in 2018 and now at best he will struggle and have to fight to only barely win those (especially São Paulo, not a Lula-friendly state at all but one where he manages to be even more unpopular, funny how São Paulo is very anti-populist).

Meanwhile, Minas Gerais is seen as THE balance of the country, usually reflecting of the national vote. Everyone who has won in Minas, won the country as well (Dilma in 2014, Bolsonaro in 2018).

So it’s interesting to see Lula’s lead over Bozo in Minas Gerais (Lula +13) be so close to his lead in all the country (Lula +12). Minas has such a mix of multiple people from different backgrounds that it makes it the face of the average Brazilian, I guess.

[Red Velvet]

Ipec polls in state capitals

São Paulo (São Paulo)
Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 24%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Simone Tebet 4%

Rio de Janeiro (Rio de Janeiro)
Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 6%, Simone Tebet 1%

Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais)
Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 3%, Simone Tebet 1%

Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul)
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 26%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Simone Tebet 3%

In the South and in the Southeast, the state capitals are polling much more to the left than the whole states

Recife (Pernambuco)
Lula 55%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 4%, Simone Tebet 3%

Not in Belo Horizonte - Minas Gerais though, where Lula has 42% in the state and 41% in the capital! It’s really only in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul that you see the vote of being pushed to the left because of the capital city in comparison to the interior of the state.

Which is 100% in line with this earlier post of mine analyzing the 2018 results. Will be fun to do the same for the 2022 to confirm it as a trend for these few red states as the only ones where the capital is leftier than the interior.

If Porto Velho also is more left-wing than Rondônia while in most of the rest of the country it’s the interior that is more pro-Lula, I will need to find answers why. Because it’s the state more strongly associated to deforestation, I am guessing maybe it’s a state with strong agro influence in the interior areas, while in the capital that isn’t a thing at all? I ready don’t know though.

The general rule outside these notable exceptions is for the capital cities to be more right-wing than their state interiors. It’s tied to economic factors and development I believe. The combo of Rio Grande do Sul - Santa Catarina -  São Paulo has well developed and wealthy towns in the state interiors. While in most of the country we associate the interior to more isolated towns and maybe poorer as well, or maybe lacking infrastructure is better word. And the electoral divide is economical, which makes the interior of these states much more right-wing leaning in comparison to the interior of other states, where probably more people are lower income and prefer Lula.

Rio de Janeiro is it’s own thing. There’s the development argument to some level as well, but not as strong as for those other three. But it’s a state that transformed a lot over the last years and we see a different type of electoral dynamic imo that is not economic only as we see literally everywhere else in the country. For some reason, social issues appear to be as relevant as economic ones (or even more??) for people making their minds, not to mention the strength of the right-wing “hard on crime” speech. And that leads to the more “progressive” city people pushing the vote to the left.

The only thing that bugs my expectations is that I thought Paraná and Rondônia would be switched on this map I made weeks ago. You would think Paraná would behave like the three states it’s more closely associated with (SP, SC, RS). Maybe there isn’t as much of that White European ancestry cultural association as strongly as there definitely exists in the interior areas of SC and RS, which push the vote to the right in those two states? While also not being the same giant industrial powerhouse like SP where the interior cities have a lot of economic influence in the national economy, even if they enjoy good development index numbers?

Thought it would be interesting to rank the 2018 presidential results from both the States and the capital of each State, to see if there is a trend there. For the 4 States in the south/southeast, I already know this will happen and this poll kinda only confirms it. But I want to see whatever happens in Rondônia…

STATES + DF (by % of valid votes on Bolsonaro in the runoff against Haddad):

1. Acre (North Region) - 77,22%
2. Santa Catarina (South Region) - 75,92%
-
3. Rondônia (North Region) - 72,18%
4. Roraima (North Region) - 71,55%
-
5. Distrito Federal (Midwest) - 69,99%
6. Paraná (South Region) - 68,43%
7. São Paulo (Southeast Region) - 67,97%
8. Rio de Janeiro (Southeast Region) - 67,95%
9. Mato Grosso (Midwest Region) - 66,42%
10. Goiás (Midwest Region) - 65,52%
11. Mato Grosso do Sul (Midwest Region) - 65,22%
-
12. Rio Grande do Sul (South Region) - 63,24%
13. Espírito Santo (Southeast Region) - 63,06%
-
14. Minas Gerais (Southeast Region) - 58,19%
-
15. Amazonas (North Region) - 50,27%
16. Amapá (North Region) - 50,21%
-
17. Tocantins (North Region) - 48,98%
18. Pará (North Region) - 45,19%
-
19. Alagoas (Northeast Region) - 40,08%
-
20. Rio Grande do Norte (Northeast Region) - 36,59%
21. Paraíba (Northeast Region) - 35,04%
-
22. Pernambuco (Northeast Region) - 33,50%
23. Sergipe (Northeast Region) - 32,46%
-
24. Ceará (Northeast Region) - 28,89%
25. Bahia (Northeast Region) - 27,31%
26. Maranhão (Northeast Region) - 26,74%
-
21. Piauí (Northeast Region) - 22,95%

CAPITALS (by % of valid votes on Bolsonaro in the runoff against Haddad):

1. Rio Branco (Acre) - 82,77%
-
2. Boa Vista (Roraima) - 78,61%
3. Curitiba (Paraná) - 76,54%
-
4. Goiânia (Goiás) - 74,20%
5. Campo Grande (Mato Grosso do Sul) - 71,27%
-
6. Distrito Federal (DF is not a state, therefore no capital) - 69,99%
7. Porto Velho (Rondônia) - 68,94%
8. Cuiabá (Mato Grosso) - 66,94%
9. Rio de Janeiro (Rio de Janeiro) - 66,35%
10. Manaus (Amazonas) - 65,72%
11. Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) - 65,59%
-
12. Palmas (Tocantins) - 64,88%
13. Florianópolis (Santa Catarina) - 64,86%
14. Vitória (Espírito Santo) - 63,19%
15. Maceió (Alagoas) - 61,63%
16. São Paulo (São Paulo) - 60,38%
-
17. Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul) - 56,85%
18. Macapá (Amapá) - 55,15%
-
19. Belém (Pará) - 54,93%
20. João Pessoa (Paraíba) - 54,80%
21. Natal (Rio Grande do Norte) - 52,98%
-
22. Recife (Pernambuco) - 47,50%
23. Aracajú (Sergipe) - 47,24%
-
24. Fortaleza (Ceará) - 44,39%
25. São Luís (Maranhão) - 42,22%
-
26. Teresina (Piauí) - 37,27%
-
27. Salvador (Bahia) - 31,41%

Bolsonaro performance in 2018 clearly shows he did better in the capitals than in overall states:
- WON 16 states, LOST 11
- WON 21 state capitals, LOST 6

Which shows that the interior vote helps Lula as a general rule overall. However, there are interesting exceptions for this. I wanted to map the States in which the capital pushed the vote to the left, which is an opposing trend to most of the country, as I’ve already shown.

These were the only 5 exceptions where the capital pushed the vote to the left:

1. Santa Catarina - + 11,06% (difference between capital vote and overall state vote)
2. São Paulo - + 7,59%
3. Rio Grande do Sul - + 6,39%
4. Rondônia - + 3,24%
5. Rio de Janeiro - + 1,60%



Which, since we’re not counting DF as a state that has a capital, is a 4/5 match with the top 5 states with highest HDI (excluding DF):

-. DF: 0,850
1. São Paulo: 0,826
2. Santa Catarina: 0,808
3. Rio de Janeiro: 0,796
4. Paraná: 0,792
5. Rio Grande do Sul: 0,787 (tied with Minas Gerais but it’s well above it in the Income + Education indexes, which is more telling than the Longevity one).

I think it’s interesting because it’s somewhat of a logic we see in foreign elections as well. In high developed countries, usually the capital and big cities tends to be “more progressive” than the rest of the country, with interior areas increasingly moving to the right. But that’s not what happens in elections of in development countries, where a lot of the interior vote is more leftist than the one in big cities because of inequality disparities favoring the left in less developed areas.

There are two opposite exceptions to this logic of “the higher development, more likely that the capital pushes the vote to the left” though. Rondônia and Paraná. I cannot explain why Porto Velho city was more left than Rondônia. Even if the 3% difference is small, it’s significant because everywhere around in the North/Northeast/Midwest, the vote usually shifted in capitals shifted a lot in favor of Bolsonaro. So it’s a weird exception in my view, that I’m curious about a theory that explains it

Meanwhile, Curitiba city being even more right-wing than Paraná comes off less surprising personally to me, even if it goes against the trend I proposed. But that’s mostly because you don’t think of strong distinctions between capital/interior in Paraná like you usually do with the other two Southern states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul tbh. There’s also the fact that Curitiba was Lava Jato’s headquarter, I guess?

[Red Velvet]

I like making that Capital city vs state distinction because it makes me less embarrassed about being from Rio de Janeiro, also a bit more hopeful.

I mean, those margins for Lula in Rio de Janeiro City are better than in Belo Horizonte, which is the capital of a state that we expect the left to do much better than in our state.

I mean, Mayoral elections here are not a complete disaster at least. It’s the Governor elections that have been constantly sh**tty since forever. Just give us a 2nd capital position or something so we aren’t tied to the rest of the state and things get a loooooot better.

The state can even have the name Rio de Janeiro to them if they want. Just recreate Guanabara state for the city well-being sake, reversing the decadence trend going on since the 70s when the city was incorporated into the Rio de Janeiro state. I would only feel somewhat sorry for Niterói being left alone there in the middle of a harsh evangelical conservative pro-militia state, because they’re even better, or maybe I should mean not as bad, politically than the capital tbh (where the West Zone of the city is already dominated by militia control and has negative political influence on the election results, just like the surrounding cities in Baixada).

[Red Velvet]

I entered the year sure that I would vote for Ciro Gomes (PDT) for president and Marcelo Freixo (PSB) for Governor…

But ends up I will vote for Lula (PT) for president and Rodrigo Neves (PDT) for Governor LMAO

Lula and Freixo are on the same coalition btw, Ciro and Rodrigo Neves on the other. I guess this is what pragmatism means?

Freixo I liked because of his convictions but he has backtracked on important agenda for Rio, like drug legalization that would kill the traffic and make militias “protection” useless. He became no different than an average center-left politician like Rodrigo Neves at this point.

At least Neves has the successful experience as mayor (high approval levels in Niterói) and not the same rejection levels as Freixo that could help Castro in the runoff. Since it’s clear no one is bold enough to do what is necessary to end the ery that has become of Rio, I would rather have a competent same-old that can defeat the worst evil.

Meanwhile, on the national stage, I like Ciro’s development-oriented project better but it’s pointless to vote for him right now when it’s clear it’s a Bolsonaro vs Lula showdown and Ciro’s presence prevents an earlier victory against fascism, which would send a stronger message.

I guess this is what pragmatism means, not voting with the emotions and thinking what works better in practice, adapting to each different regional reality? Because I was excited about Ciro and Freixo but now that election campaign started that feels so distant and so “meh”. I’m starting to really want to vote for a Lula + Neves combo here.

For senator I simply refuse to vote for either Cabo Daciolo (PDT) or André Ceciliano (PT) even if they were the only candidates running. So it’s going to be Molon (PSB) by default, not that it makes much difference considering how they shamefully fragmented that race when it should be the one to NOT do that since there isn’t a runoff for it.

[Red Velvet]

Some demographic curiosities about the new Datafolha poll…

Segments in which Lula (average of 47%) has his best performance on the 1st round vote:
- Homosexuals and Bisexuals (69%)
- Afro-Brazilians (60%)
- Northeast Region voters (57%)
- People who receive Auxílio Brasil* or who live with someone who does (56%)
- People with no Religion (56%)
- Lowest income group, of 2 minimum wages or less (55%)
- Less educated groups, who only finished Middle School (55%)

*Auxílio Brasil is a government income redistribution program for the ones who need the most. It was created by the Bolsonaro government, substituting the one from the Lula Era (was called Bolsa Família).

Bolsonaro (average of 32%) has his best performance with:
- Evangelical Protestants (49%)
- Higher Middle Class income group, of between 5 and 10 minimum wages (47%)
- Richest income group, of over 10 minimum wages (43%)
- North Region voters (43%)
- Midwest Region voters (42%)
- Lower Middle Class income group, of between 2 and 5 minimum wages (41%)
- South Region voters (39%)
- White Brazilians (38%)

I listed for Lula categories were he does at least 8% better than his average. For Bolsonaro at least 6% over than his average.

[Red Velvet]

Some % for the main candidates by the demographic group here. Just to remind that the average to be compared with is Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 32% and Ciro 7%

GENDER - You’re seeing a depolarizations between the male and female vote now. They’re not significantly different imo

MALE: Lula +11
Lula 46%
Bolsonaro 35%
Ciro 7%

FEMALE: Lula +18
Lula 47%
Bolsonaro 29%
Ciro 7%

INCOME - You actually see depolarization in the richest segment, where the election is basically tied. It’s between the higher middle class segments that Bolsonaro does his best. Which is a group that is pretty distant from benefiting from social programs of the government and could resent lower classes for it, but at the same time resent what they see as more “progressive richer elites”, being vulnerable to different kinds of populist rhetoric.

2 MINIMUM WAGES (MW) OR LESS: Lula +32
Lula 55%
Bolsonaro 23%
Ciro 7%

BETWEEN 2 MW AND 5 MW: Bolsonaro +3
Bolsonaro 41%
Lula 38%
Ciro 8%

BETWEEN 2 MW AND 5 MW: Bolsonaro +13
Bolsonaro 47%
Lula 34%
Ciro 7%

OVER 10 MW: Bolsonaro +3
Bolsonaro 43%
Lula 40%
Ciro 6%

RELIGION - Giant polarization between Evangelicals and everyone else.

CATHOLICS: Lula +25
Lula 52%
Bolsonaro 27%
Ciro 8%

EVANGELICALS: Bolsonaro +17
Bolsonaro 49%
Lula 32%
Ciro 6%

NO RELIGION: Lula +37
Lula 56%
Bolsonaro 19%
Ciro 9%

OTHER RELIGIONS: Lula +10
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 33%
Ciro 6%

REGION OF THE COUNTRY: Lula wins in the more populated regions that go alongside the coast while Bolsonaro wins in the lesser populated Inland regions of the country.

SOUTHEAST: Lula +12
Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 32%
Ciro 8%

NORTHEAST: Lula +33
Lula 57%
Bolsonaro 24%
Ciro 8%

SOUTH: Lula +4
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 39%
Ciro 7%

NORTH: Bolsonaro +2
Bolsonaro 43%
Lula 41%
Ciro 6%

MIDWEST: Bolsonaro +6
Bolsonaro 42%
Lula 36%
Ciro 7%

METROPOLITAN REGION OF THE STATE (CAPITAL) VS INTERIOR CITIES - As I pointed before, it basically depends of the region. In the North/Northeast generally the left will do better in the interior, while in most of the South/Southeast (where the heavily populated SP and RJ axis has significant weight) you can already notice a pattern of the left doing better in the capitals. In the end, things are balanced out.

METRO AREAS: Lula +13
Lula 45%
Bolsonaro 32%
Ciro 8%

INTERIOR: Lula +16
Lula 48%
Bolsonaro 32%
Ciro 7%

AGE - Not a polarized demographic, but generally, the younger tend to prefer Lula over Bolsonaro more.

AGE 16-24: Lula +23
Lula 51%
Bolsonaro 28%
Ciro 8%

AGE 25-34: Lula +18
Lula 49%
Bolsonaro 31%
Ciro 8%

AGE 35-44: Lula +12
Lula 46%
Bolsonaro 34%
Ciro 8%

AGE 45-59: Lula +11
Lula 45%
Bolsonaro 34%
Ciro 6%

AGE 60+: Lula +11
Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 33%
Ciro 7%
Tebet 5% (Special mention cause it’s the only category she reaches so high!)

EDUCATION: Lesser education segments prefer Lula while Bolsonaro does better with people who have an university diploma but he still loses to Lula there too!

MIDDLE SCHOOL OR LESS: Lula +28
Lula 55%
Bolsonaro 27%
Ciro 5%

FINISHED HIGH SCHOOL: Lula +10
Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 34%
Ciro 7%

FINISHED COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY: Lula +4
Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 36%
Ciro 11% (Ciro’s only double digit main category!)

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro small but steady growth is him gradually regaining some of his 2018 voters that drifted away from him during the pandemic because of his response but as election approaches and gets evidenced it’s completely polarized between an “either this or that”, they go towards Bolsonaro as an anti-PT response.

The economic big spending populism Bolsonaro is betting on recently is a strategy to diminish Lula’s lead among the poorest and that apparently had little to no effect. Lula % of the vote is extremely consistent and most of his voters aren’t changing. This is a very unique election in the sense everyone has been discussing or hearing about at least to some level, so people have made up their minds already. The changes will be predictably small so even if Bolsonaro keeps growing like 1%-2% every poll until the election, it won’t be enough to change things in terms of the end result.

Something quite drastic would need to change people’s mentality and the government is betting that the Auxílio Brasil 2nd payment in September will do that. And other unpredictable stuff cannot be counted out, no expected the Bolsonaro stabbing in 2018 and how it helped to get him sympathy and popularity while also being a perfect excuse to not go to debates or participate front and center in the political discussion.

But like, Datafolha says that between both Lula and Bolsonaro voters, more than 80% are confident of their vote and say they will not change it. The way things are NOW, I can’t see drastic shifts from poll to poll.

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha also points out that people who consider that a dictatorship can be the best system reached an all time low since the question started being asked in 1989, just after the redemocratization period:

Overall answers:

Democracy is always the best system - 75%
Doesn’t matter whether it’s a democracy or a dictatorship - 12%
In certain circumstances, a dictatorship is the best system - 7%

Historical divide between the democracy and dictatorship supporters alongside the years, during presidential election years:

1989 - Democracy 43% vs Dictatorship 18%
1994 - Democracy 54% vs Dictatorship 13%
2000 - Democracy 47% vs Dictatorship 18%
2003 - Democracy 59% vs Dictatorship 13%
2008 - Democracy 61% vs Dictatorship 11%
2014 - Democracy 62% vs Dictatorship 14%
2018 - Democracy 57% vs Dictatorship 15%
2021 - Democracy 70% vs Dictatorship 9%
2022 - Democracy 75% vs Dictatorship 7%

[Red Velvet]

Lula is only at ~70% with gays/bisexuals? Are the rest scattered or are some actually voting for Bolsonaro?

Probably scattered around. I am gay and I really like Ciro Gomes for example.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s still probably around 10%-20% supporting Bolsonaro or so even among Homosexuals. Especially some upper or middle class ones.

Brazilian elections aren’t as demographically polarized as US elections, where divisions all fall very clearly between demographic grounds with over 90% of some groups (ex: African Americans) often backing the same option on an entire national level.

I mean, now it’s probably the most polarized it has ever been and we still don’t reach those margins nationally. I think the biggest one you would find is if you compared Interior cities of the South Region (ex: from Santa Catarina) with Interior cities of the Northeast Region (ex: from Piauí).

It’s still mindblowing to me how the regional divide between cities of the Interior area of the states can be so huge. Bolsonaro won in some cities of the interior of Santa Catarina with over 80% in 2018, but Haddad had an average of 70% in ALL the Northeast (reaching close or even above to 80% in the interior cities of the region as well)

This time I am suspecting Lula could maybe reach 90% in some interior cities from the Northeast. While Bolsonaro margin in the some of the interior of Santa Catarina falls to a little below to around the 70%-80%, which would still be really high!

It’s so interesting to me how the interior is what defines what we understand as the “stereotypes” of each region. Because the vote from the capitals is mostly moderate even if they still follow the overall regional “rules” (in the South capitals not as Pro-Bolsonaro as their interior and in the Northeast the capitals not as Pro-Lula as their interior).

[Red Velvet]

Not sure if there will be more debates tbh. Even for this one Bolsonaro people kept saying he wouldn’t go only to later on change the discourse and say he would go.

If he does bad in this one, I’m not sure there will be more debates because if he doesn’t go, Lula people will say there’s no reason for him to debate with more irrelevant candidates only and then without the two, the debate would be canceled lol

I’m still surprised this debate is really happening so it’s something I will definitely watch because it could very well be the only one. For such a polarized election that has been discussed for so long, it still doesn’t really feel like we’re in the times we anticipated so much for the last four years…

The only signs that we are in an electoral period I got were the screams (against and in favor of him, people fighting on their windows) on the window during Bolsonaro interview to Jornal Nacional on Monday and my Uber driver watching the Jornal Nacional interview with Lula on the car last Thursday.

Oh and if you walk by Uruguaiana (commercial point in Rio) you can see a bunch of towels with Lula or Bolsonaro face on it, that people like to buy for some reason. I read that this little towels selling has become a phenomenon this cycle, with the sellers organizing a public score in front of sales of how many Lula and Bolsonaro towels they managed to sell, which stimulates people to rush to buy more towels for their candidate in order to defeat the other in the score. From what I hear, Lula ones sells much more than the Bolsonaro ones.

Outside that, there’s a weird sense of calm in the air imo. Like this was any other boring beginning of an election cycle like other ones. Which I have to remind myself that it isn’t.

[Red Velvet]

Lula was the only really good commercial but not really surprising as PT marketing is always consistently good and compelling. Very cinematic with inspiring soundtrack that appeals to nostalgia to what people associate with happier times of prosperity (2000s in his government)

Bolsonaro clearly more in defensive mode after the last years not being good for the country at all, suggesting it’s not his fault for the bad situation because he had to deal with COVID and Ukraine War. Some empty Bible verse in order to appeal to religious evangelicals. The voiceover at the beginning was cheap, talk to the camera yourself. But not really bad overall.

Ciro had little TV time but registers nothing, even wasting it by pointing this out and asking for people to read his proposals somewhere else lmao. No one cares about opening a QR Code on their cellphones, use the TV time you have to say it yourself, although this policy focus on TV marketing comes off as pedantic. Ciro proposals are my favorite out of all candidates and he clearly is the smartest on the issues, but the man simply does not know to sell himself. I give up.

Simone and Soraya focus on presenting themselves due to their low name ID, Simone with her background and Soraya with a bunch of nonsense that doesn’t register. Feels very empty and self-centered, but probably necessary for their first commercials since people don’t know who they are.

Felipe from Novo has even less time than Ciro, thank heavens. Completely irrelevant to register anything.

No major attacks yet, but the few criticisms clearly directed at Bolsonaro. Talks of hunger coming back for the poorest segments, mentions of authoritarianism and criticizing intentional inaction during the pandemic regarding obtaining vaccines.

[Red Velvet]

Debate starts in 10 minutes

[Red Velvet]

Omg it started. First time ever that Lula and Bolsonaro face each other in the same room lol

[Red Velvet]

Too many filler candidates in the debate zzzz

So far the most relevant moments were Bolsonaro asking Lula about corruption and Ciro asking Bolsonaro about Hunger and Misery. But both Ciro and Lula seem way too calm and not enough in attack mode imo

Lula lost the perfect opportunity to bring all the Bolsonaro corruption (I mean, Centrão’s whore!) and opted to shift the subject to all his government accomplishments. Lula is old and already experienced literally everything from political life, definitely not the combative figure from the older days even if he still maintains a strong presence.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro got pressed with the question about vaccines from journalist Vera Magalhães and offended her. Knows it’s extremely sensitive topic that made him very unpopular. Typical coward strategy in order to escape from answering. Trying hard to show strength overall as well. Typical “bully to hide your weaknesses and insecurities” stereotype.

The Ciro vs Lula personal question was criiinge from the journalist, is that a relevant matter? I have to like Lula response more in that case even if the “Paris” line is dumb as hell. But at least Lula initially tried to find common ground complimenting Ciro. Ciro turned down the amicable tone and went to attack mode, which provoked the Lula response. But everything about it was dumb and for show, from the journalist to both candidates.

Lula is way too “love and peace” imo, which could maybe be interpreted as weakness. I get that he wants to send the message of the unifier but people REALLY want to see someone stepping on Bolsonaro HARD. And both Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes have done a better job on this regard, but still should have been much more. Ciro is dumb bringing a PT line of attack for every anti-Bolsonaro one he does though.

The filler candidates are being put in stereotypical positions. Simone and Soraya being put in the Woman position. Simone is actually a good speaker though, unlike Soraya. Felipe as the fringe ideological candidate screaming “State BAD” and no one giving a damn.

Soraya just got the BEST moment in the debate though, despite being the weakest overall! Just called out Bolsonaro disrespectful attitude towards Vera in a strong way. I think that played really well. Bolsonaro tried to play the Trump playbook by offending a woman journalist but I don’t think that will play well in the same way he expects… That open type of humiliating women plays different depending on the country and outside the more radical base, this pushes away the people on the fence.

No one is really that good imo, so I give Simone Tebet the MVP position by default overall. 2nd place goes to Ciro.

[Red Velvet]

Soraya’s question to Lula was very pertinent regarding what is the Lula program tbh

Lula is basically running on nothing other than his name and good memories of his older government. But there’s nothing new, it feels rusty as hell. Not by coincidence, he responds most questions by mentioning the accomplishments from those times.

That said, Lula FINALLY gets a strong answer but wastes it on Soraya lmaoooo. But that type of stuff plays well, shaming the elitism from upper classes.

[Red Velvet]

I know it’s just politics, but I literally hate Ciro after this debate and 100% am not voting for him regardless of project.

Playing a “dobradinha” with the guy from NOVO against PT? Where’s that energy against Bolsonaro?

Overall, this debates still feels like a default victory to Bolsonaro despite the weak performance. But he has something in favor of him against all these people which is the accessible easy language and communication. Others sound way too politician or way too rehearsed or way too smart with difficult language.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro shooting himself on the foot wanting to ASK ABOUT WOMEN ISSUES to Ciro Gomes after the sh**tshow spectacle he did on camera.

Glad Ciro pointed the absurd out but still too respectful. He’s bringing again PT/Lula again randomly lol. He doesn’t understand he won’t get any votes from this. If anyone will benefit, it’s Bolsonaro.

[Red Velvet]

Debate has ended and Simone Tebet was the only name that was able to make a name for herself.

Lula was too weak/soft while attacked by everyone, but the biggest issue is that he doesn’t know how to bring anything new. Talked a lot about past achievements but it sounded like he’s stuck in the past.

Bolsonaro did good for his base but not overall imo, although in the matchup against Lula only he wins for being able to dictate the topics discussed by adopting attack mode. But had bad moments where sounded he desperate and I don’t think much of his rhetoric he used is relevant to anyone outside his base. Specific moments were disgusting, like his response to Vera Magalhães.

Ciro I’m just annoyed with, but it’s a “meh” show, although still enough to probably be 2nd best performance. Some moments were really strong, loved the response to Bolsonaro regarding women. Won’t get any new voters though.

Simone Tebet was able to successfully present herself and she registered. Surprising that out of everyone, with Lula and Ciro there, she’s the one who looked like the most antagonizing figure towards Bolsonaro. The disappointment towards Lula I think is that people want a catharsis from debates and say a  you to Bolsonaro. Tebet benefited from this in that dull stage in which somewhat lacked the way people wanted.

Soraya is very weird and kinda dull, but had some good and strong moments. That other guy whose name I don’t remember was only a caricature repeating same thing entire time, typical “message” candidate that doesn’t even think of winning but spreading the party message around through the TV time.

[Red Velvet]

Ciro Gomes answered some questions very well, but in other questions, he was disgusting. He tries to be on the left of PT in economic issues, but he joined the candidate of the libertarian Novo in the attacks on the PT. And in order to try to put Bolsonaro and PT at the same level, the compared Bolsonaro's insult on journalist Vera Magalhães to PT supporters who were only waving flags outside the TV studio.

That was the moment that made me want to punch Ciro.

As a supporter of his (at least the proposals only at this point, but not Ciro himself anymore), I do think criticizing PT and Lula is important when there is a valid point and I get really annoyed by PT fanatics who make it personal.

That said, there was nothing about PT in that question and Ciro just sounded obsessed to namedrop PT for the sake of false equivalence in a time he was supposed to go hard on Bolsonaro only. Attack PT in more convenient questions, in that one it felt WAY off.

[Red Velvet]

DATAFOLHA poll regarding the debate performance shows Bolsonaro as easily the worst performance compared to the others, while Lula is mostly a nothing burguer that didn’t even register much as best or worst, but significantly more negative than positive though.

2ND TV BLOC ONLY

Who had the BEST performance in the debate?

Simone Tebet (MDB) - 37%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 22%
Felipe D’Avila (NOVO) - 15%
Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO) - 13%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 6%
Lula (PT) - 4%
Don’t Know - 4%

Who had the WORST performance in the debate?

Bolsonaro (PL) - 45%
Felipe D’Avila (NOVO) - 16%
Lula (PT) - 14%
Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO) - 12%
Simone Tebet (MDB) - 10%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 2%
Don’t Know - 2%

[Red Velvet]

Sorry, the ones above were for the 2nd bloc of the debate only.

These are the OVERALL results from Datafolha:

Who had the BEST performance in the debate?

1. Simone Tebet (MDB) - 43%
2. Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 23%
3. Lula (PT) - 10%
4. Bolsonaro (PL) - 10%
5. Felipe D’Avila (NOVO) - 8%
6. Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO) - 2%

Who had the WORST performance in the debate?

1. Bolsonaro (PL) - 51%
2. Lula (PT) - 21%
3. Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO) - 14%
4. Felipe D’Avila (NOVO) - 7%
5. Simone Tebet (MDB) - 5%
6. Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 2%

The poll isn’t representative of all Brazilian population but of undecided voters and blank/null voters. Which is best measure for debate performances because otherwise people would just have a bias in favor of their candidates.

[Red Velvet]

The day after consensus seems to be that both Lula and Bolsonaro were mostly bad or mediocre at best and that Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes were the standouts.

With Lula there’s a giant danger on running on the nostalgia because people will inevitably compare you to the figure you were the past. Lula was always very combative and energetic but here he looked older and more experienced (not in a compliment tbh) in the sense even though everyone was attacking him, he tried to be soft in order to hopefully get their support in the runoff. It may have worked with Simone Tebet tbh, but it DEFINETELY did not work with Ciro Gomes though and the exchange he had with Ciro was more positive to Ciro than to himself.

That said, he should’ve attacked Bolsonaro more and he had the opportunities. The first question about corruption for example was a perfect opportunity to turn tables and go all against Bolsonaro hypocrisy on that own matter. He tried to correct that later when asking Simone Tebet about vaccination corruption schemes from the Bolsonaro government but it was too little too late and not done in a direct exchange with Bolsonaro.

What saved Lula was Bolsonaro own insanity himself. If in the start it sounded like Bolsonaro had the edge by adopting a more aggressive stance on attack-mode, it later became too uncontrolled and he sounded completely childish and unhinged when asked about the pandemic and vaccination (his main weakness) by a female journalist. He did not respond and instead used his time to offend the professional, even verbalizing afterwards that she shouldn’t victimize herself only for being a woman. She had only asked about vaccines, so he sounded insane.

So basically a weak and mediocre Lula trying to not get involved in conflict and trying to be too nice to everyone when everyone is literally trashing the hell out of him and a crazy and aggressive Bolsonaro who goes overboard on the misogyny and also says a bunch of lies and cheap attacks in order to look awesome to his base and literally no one else. Lula was kinda saved from disaster by an even worse Bolsonaro. Will be interesting to see if this affects anything on the polls, especially regarding the Female vote, which observer groups say it was the most critical of the sexist attack against journalist Vera Magalhães. Will it have ANY effect for any of the involved or are things too consolidated they cannot change much? I’m not sure yet. But if  the debate were to have any logical effect, I would expect both Lula and Bolsonaro to drop on the polls.

The distant 3rd and 4th places benefited from the leaders underperformance. Simone Tebet was considered the best overall and Ciro 2nd best, although it’s Ciro that I’m seeing who is gaining the main repercussion online. Lots of his lines viralized even among Bolsonarist segments when he attacked Lula, the response to the “You went to Paris” being the more popular. As much as Ciro was nasty and helping the Bolsonarist narrative with the attacks from Lula not always appearing in the right time IMO (in the question about women being the main example of false equivalence), the Paris line is mainly worthless outside PT segments so I think it was stupid for Lula to use it.

Ciro and Simone both had effective attacks on Lula and Bolsonaro each. But the impression overall is that Simone’s attacks were stronger and more focused against Bolsonaro, while Ciro had great lines on both but the inappropriate obsession with PT even when the question didn’t welcome this commentary definitely made him look more against Lula than against Bolsonaro. Which I will not forgive him for.

It will be interesting to see if Ciro or Simone Tebet can gain some ground after this. Bolsonaro was very impolite, the only candidate to not compliment his adversaries at the debate start and also after he ended he just left without talking to anyone while other complimented themselves. Apparently the only person Bolsonaro complimented before leaving was Ciro Gomes. Not Lula and not any of the two female candidates.

It might be the only debate we will have this cycle, like I predicted because it still was surreal we were even getting one to begin with, as no one thought Bolsonaro would have the guts to go. But he did it and now is apparently annoyed, canceling an appearance on a media that is FAVORABLE towards him and reconsidering future presences in debates:

https://www.twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1564237669885952000?t=UNgqw4KWUWi...

[Red Velvet]

New BTG/FSB poll released today

Because of the time it was made, the poll reflects the effects of the individual interviews from last week made with each candidate during Primetime TV, but it does NOT reflect the effects of yesterday’s debate yet.

Lula 43% (-2)
Bolsonaro 36% (no change)
Ciro Gomes 9% (+3)
Simone Tebet 4% (+2)
Vera Lúcia 1% (no change)
Pablo Marçal 1% (no change)

Other candidates (like Soraya Thronicke or Felipe D’Avila who both participated in yesterday’s debate) did not reach 1%.

Bolsonaro very slowly closing what was a big gap… It could be a close election in the end.