COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Grassroots]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

[DINGO Joe]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Very brave of you.  How do you stop it from overwhelming the community at large?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Perhaps you should go get a job in one.  IIRC you're a young person.

[DINGO Joe]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Perhaps you should go get a job in one.  IIRC you're a young person.

We will need some group to replace the line workers as they get ill and/or go into isolation.  I propose a Chicken Corp, and yes Grassr00ts can answer the call for his country.

[Grassroots]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Very brave of you.  How do you stop it from overwhelming the community at large?

If it overwhelms the community, so what? Most of these plants are located in rural towns with 3,000-10,000 people.

[JA]

https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1248664536078483462

How is Sweden’s economy holding up relative to the rest of Europe?  And is their health care system close to collapsing?

Sweden has 5.8 ICU beds per 100,000 people; the US has 34.7 ICU beds per 100,000 people; Spain has 9.7 ICU beds per 100,000 people. Their healthcare system has experienced extensive cuts and privatizations over the last 40 years as well, which has left them in a pretty poor situation for handling this crisis.

[JA]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Very brave of you.  How do you stop it from overwhelming the community at large?

If it overwhelms the community, so what? Most of these plants are located in rural towns with 3,000-10,000 people.

Here's a fun fact: people in small towns are people too.

[Grassroots]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Very brave of you.  How do you stop it from overwhelming the community at large?

If it overwhelms the community, so what? Most of these plants are located in rural towns with 3,000-10,000 people.

Here's a fun fact: people in small towns are people too.

It's not like they are going to all die, the mortality rate on this thing is much much lower than expected.

[DINGO Joe]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Very brave of you.  How do you stop it from overwhelming the community at large?

If it overwhelms the community, so what? Most of these plants are located in rural towns with 3,000-10,000 people.

You may want to consider a Marie Antoinette costume this Halloween.  

[It’s so Joever]

I mean, food production can’t just stop.
There ought to be more measures to sanitize the facilities, and some form of guaranteed sick leave would help, but shutting down the factories is not a good option.

[It’s so Joever]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Very brave of you.  How do you stop it from overwhelming the community at large?

If it overwhelms the community, so what? Most of these plants are located in rural towns with 3,000-10,000 people.

Here's a fun fact: people in small towns are people too.

It's not like they are going to all die, the mortality rate on this thing is much much lower than expected.

Curious to know, what do you think the true mortality rate is?

[It’s so Joever]

The church near my neighborhood was completely packed today and they had a sign on their billboard "Government can't stop us from worshiping God in the House of worship, it might work for other religions but not for us"

Die, then.  Can't say they weren't warned.

Unfortunately, those churchgoers will also have the possibility to infect innocent civilians...

[JA]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Very brave of you.  How do you stop it from overwhelming the community at large?

If it overwhelms the community, so what? Most of these plants are located in rural towns with 3,000-10,000 people.

Here's a fun fact: people in small towns are people too.

It's not like they are going to all die, the mortality rate on this thing is much much lower than expected.

Except we aren't talking about numbers in a data set, we are talking about premature deaths due to preventable spread from a novel virus. These people are someone's mother who loved and nurtured them; a beloved husband who takes care of his elderly partner; a friend and daughter who donates her time helping local kids, but who had the misfortune of a weakened immune system from recently overcoming cancer. I'm willing to sacrifice as much as I can to help make sure none of those people meet an awful, premature death - and I do consider each one of their lives worth immeasurable value, unlike material objects.

[DINGO Joe]

The church near my neighborhood was completely packed today and they had a sign on their billboard "Government can't stop us from worshiping God in the House of worship, it might work for other religions but not for us"

Die, then.  Can't say they weren't warned.

Unfortunately, those churchgoers will also have the possibility to infect innocent civilians...

That always been the problem with wishing a pox upon deplorables, you can't just limit it to affect them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

John Horton Conway, a pioneer of mathematics and game theory, died of COVID-19 yesterday, three days after falling ill.  Anyone familiar with his work will know what a tremendous loss this is.  If you would like to know more about him, his Wikipedia entry is here.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

As we climb through 2 Million Total Cases worldwide, keep in mind that a lot of those people have now recovered. The number of Active Cases is significantly less.

Based on the German research recently quoted by Russian Bear and Deadoman, the stats are pretty encouraging for 66-75% of the population to develop antibodies without getting sick, or having mild symptoms without any long term effects.

My estimate based on this research for people who have developed anti-bodies to the virus would be between 20-40 Million people.

Some graphs coming up with latest predictions.

UK



UK 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 83,603 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 8,700

The UK will end up with more infected cases than Italy if they don't get the curve down soon.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/the-uks-coronavirus-problem-is-getting-worse/12143908


France



France 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 96,942 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 0

France looks to be the worst affected in terms of volume of Active Cases of the European nations.


Germany



Germany 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 8,100


Spain



Spain 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 75,778 – April 7
Recoveries added to curve – 13,000


Italy



Italy 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 67,880 – March 29
Recoveries added to curve – 66,400

Clearly past the worst of it, Italy should calm down now in terms of the number of Active Cases. First in to the curve, most likely, first out.


USA



USA 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 474,723 – April 17
Recoveries added to curve – 92,000

USA curve reduced thanks to the addition of recoveries. Looks to be past the top of peak growth and now heading to peak Active cases in 4-5 days time.

Will most likely get a few bumps on the way down as evidenced by the same in the European countries listed.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Grassroots]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Very brave of you.  How do you stop it from overwhelming the community at large?

If it overwhelms the community, so what? Most of these plants are located in rural towns with 3,000-10,000 people.

Here's a fun fact: people in small towns are people too.

It's not like they are going to all die, the mortality rate on this thing is much much lower than expected.

Curious to know, what do you think the true mortality rate is?

Less than 1%.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I’m sure this will go over well with the public opinion.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1249487471630381056?s=21

[brucejoel99]

I’m sure this will go over well with the public opinion.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1249487471630381056?s=21

We're f**ked.

[T'Chenka]

I’m sure this will go over well with the public opinion.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1249487471630381056?s=21

Changed my username in anticipation.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/12 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>

3/29: <Sunday>

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

[Grassroots]

I’m sure this will go over well with the public opinion.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1249487471630381056?s=21

That's misleading, here's the actual tweet.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1249470237726081030

However, the "I banned China" quote is still pretty dumb.

[Thomas D]

Do we know anything about how fast the virus is mutating, if at all?

[It’s so Joever]

If he fires Fauci, I will “exercise my rights” like Sprouts.

[It’s so Joever]

Do we know anything about how fast the virus is mutating, if at all?

It’s mutating, but not abnormally fast. It’s mutating slower than influenza does. A vaccine will probably be effective when it comes out.
Also, mutations aren’t an inherently bad thing, most mutations have little to no effect on the virulence and infectivity, similar time how many mutations in humans do nothing. It’s only a few rare ones that can increase transmissibility, or in even rarer cases, virulence.