🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[crals]

So it's really happening? What even happened in Lisbon? How did the polls not see it coming?

[crals]

Moedas will preside over a very left-wing council, however. The opposition will have to walk a thin line between keeping him in check and avoiding a by-election that would likely favour the Mayor.

[crals]

It's interesting how neatly the Portuguese and German party systems currently map out with each other

BE - West German Linke
CDU - East German Linke
PS - SPD
PAN - Grüne
IL - FDP
PSD - CDU
CDS - CSU
Chega - AfD

[crals]

Bad news for basically everyone except Chega and IL, I fear.

[crals]

Adolfo Mesquita Nunes has left CDS, saying the party he joined no longer exists. Another nail in the party's coffin.

[crals]

Crisis looming also in the Azores: IL is ready to reject the PSD regional budget because of SATA airlines.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1452962588472586253

IL votes against Azores Budget if Government maintains "plan and indebtedness"

If in the mainland there's a political crisis looming, in the Azores another may be forming. The current PSD/CDS/PPM minority government, with the outside support of IL, CHEGA and a CHEGA dissident, has always been shaky and now it seems it could break. The reason seems to be SATA airlines, the Azorean regional airline, and the inclusion of 133 million euros in the regional budget for the capital increase of SATA. IL is demanding a new budget where that would reduce the level of indebtedness to SATA. José Manuel Bolieiro, Azores President, reacted by saying that the regional government and political parties have to assume their responsibilities and that the government is working to present a budget to the regional Parliament.

Snap regional elections could also be inevitable in the Azores during 2022. In the local elections, the PSD gained a lot of ground in the islands, while the PS lost significantly. Could this be a prelude of a snap regional election? I would like to hear Crals opinion.

In case of a snap election I think the government (PSD, CDS, and PPM) has a chance of winning a majority. The population is willing to give them a chance to show what they can do and not enough time has yet passed to clear up the PS fatigue either.

[crals]

This is why the PS didn't try very hard to reach a budget agreement. At the end of the day left-wing voters, even those who blame the government, prefer to see results than instability, and the rejected budget was already quite generous in some aspects.

[crals]

Is the reason that Livre did not "break through" unlike the other two new parties that entered Parliament in 2019 an inability to find its own political lane, internal disorganization, or both? And how much did the immediate expulsion of Joacine Moreira matter in all this?

The left-wing camp is pretty crowded, but they found a free lane back in 2019 with minority rights, which Joacine as a disabled black woman embodied very well. Their campaign in 2019 was focused almost exclusively on her and even at the height of the controversy around her the party was polling decently (peaking around 3% iirc). Without her they lost both their USP and whatever publicity they had and are pretty much forgotten about. Perhaps they can find a new lane by campaigning as the constructive party to the left of PS that can be a bridge between them and the far-left.

[crals]

That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

[crals]

I'm looking forward to the mess that Chega's upcoming parliamentary group will be. Expecting half of their MPs to leave the party within a year.

[crals]

First of all, welcome to the forum

You just summed up what PAN is. They seem like center-left, but their position is more like Syncretic, and actually they defend that the left-right divide is ancient history, and are willing to talk to either the PS or PSD, and their policies reflect that, but I'm of the opinion that they would work better with the PS rather than the PSD. But, the PS in this campaign isn't very keen in conceding stuff, and PAN is letting the door open to the PSD.

Thanks, long-time lurker but thought I'd finally start posting

Those are fair explanations, particularly about the PS making a conciliatory campaign difficult. It makes sense that they would want to avoid being pigeonholed as left wing in order to try to appeal to pro animal/environment voters who don't consider themselves as left wing (and there is already competition from more overtly eco-socialist parties on the left anyways), but it seems obvious they would get more of their agenda done with the left and the 'tax cuts combined with spending increases and more regulation' bit seems a tad populist/not well thought through.

I'd just like to add that PAN was not originally intended to be a left-wing party though. They were founded with a focus on environmentalism and animal rights obviously but also had cutting public spending and taxes as a goal. The parliamentary situation (and the fact the PS in practice adopted much of the right-wing's economic agenda anyway) led them to cooperate almost exclusively with the left-wing bloc for influence, but being perceived as becoming a generic left-wing party under the leadership of André Silva caused some friction within the party. Inês Sousa Real is basically going back to square one.

[crals]

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.

No way. That would require getting approximately 45% of the vote, perhaps a bit less but certainly not less than 40%.

[crals]

I guess I'd vote BE (or PS depending on the campaign) if I were Portuguese. I thought I had more in common with CDU and PAN. And I never really considered Livre a serious option. Can they really survive after the JKM debacle? That's surprising to me.

I'm also a bit surprised about Livre's comeback in the polls. Yes, Tavares had good debate performances, but I'm still skeptical about Livre's chances. If they indeed survive and retain their 2019 seat, it would a major win as, like you said, the party after the whole Joacine fiasco went downhill.

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.

No way. That would require getting approximately 45% of the vote, perhaps a bit less but certainly not less than 40%.

Actually, a party can achieve an absolute majority with a share bellow 40%, if the margin between the 1st and 2nd parties is wide enough, maybe 14-15%, and if smaller parties poll badly or if there is a big distribution of votes between smaller parties, as the D'Hondt method favours the largest party. But, unless the PSD colapses, it's almost mathematically impossible for Costa to win a majority.

Sure, it's technically possible, but it would require a very unusual result.

[crals]

Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

PSD 68%
PAN 64%
PS 64%
IL 61%
Livre 58%
BE 57%
CDS 52%
CH 51%
CDU 49%

More or less what I expected, I'm not a perfect fit for any party. Will probably vote for the PSD/CDS/PPM joint list (running in the Azores constituency).

[crals]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
  6.3% CHEGA (nc)
  6.3% IL (+1.1)
  4.9% BE (-0.1)
  4.5% CDU (-0.5)
  1.6% PAN (-0.3)
  1.6% Livre (+0.1)
  1.2% CDS (+0.2)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...

[crals]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
 6.3% CHEGA (nc)
 6.3% IL (+1.1)
 4.9% BE (-0.1)
 4.5% CDU (-0.5)
 1.6% PAN (-0.3)
 1.6% Livre (+0.1)
 1.2% CDS (+0.2)
 5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...

If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

I would guess a left-wing majority. CDS votes wouldn't result in any MP and IL and (especially) Chega would also have many wasted votes in rural constituencies.

[crals]

If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

Actually, if this was the final result, the PSD would win the most seats, while the PS would win more votes. Using this simulator: https://tiagotvv.github.io/app/vote.html, the PSD would win 97 seats, and the PS 94, with the total seats for the rightwing at 118 and 112 for the leftwing. This difference can happen as the PSD is strong in small districts and could win crucial seats from the PS in these areas, while the PS gains a lot of votes in the heavily populated districts of Lisbon and Setúbal. Because this is a parliamentary election, the party with the most seats wins, even though they would lose the popular vote. Costa would probably resign and Rio would form a minority with the possible "blessing" of the PS, at least until 2024.

Interesting. This tracking poll is even worse news for the PS than it seemed.

[crals]

No matter what happens next Sunday, it seems all but certain that the CDS and PAN leaders won't hold their jobs for much longer...

[crals]

Why the polarization btw? It didn't feel like this was a particularly high stake election.

The polls made it seem like it was a close call. Turns out it wasn't.

[crals]

It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.

[crals]

It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.

how is cds doing?

Badly. You need about 2% to win a seat in Lisbon. They have 1,7%. It will be very close. They’re out of contention for a seat in Porto.

Só Livre will possibly get a seat (2.15% in Lisbon ATM) and maybe Pan too (1.92%)?? I hope both enter the Parliament while CDS doesn't.

Yes, Livre and PAN will probably both win a seat, CDS is in doubt

[crals]

It's over, I guess... Left-wing voters have made their choice. They prefer stability to ideological purity. Hopefully giving PS so much power won't backfire.

[crals]

Will the various Left-wing parties learn a lesson from this and form electoral pacts next election?

It's unlikely. They don't get along, and with a PS majority they will have more room to breathe.

[crals]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.

[crals]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.

No one believe it. The PS even stooped asking for a majority during last week because they thought it was scaring away voters.

I guess after the fairly stunning results of the autárquicas we were bound to have a surprise (or shall we say, a large polling error) on the other side... but yes, almost nobody could have predicted this. I think the most mind-blowing fact is that just one week ago a couple polls got out which had the PSD ahead. How things change!

I do wonder if it was a large polling error or undecided people really broke off heavily in favor of the PS. The turnout increase might point out to the latter.