Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

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don't forget:

reports of [adjective] turnout in [place] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

Reports of aquatic turnout in Myanmar suggest artichoke for Republicans

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Ambassador to Luxembourg seems like just about the cushiest position imaginable.

Nah that’d be Ambassador to the Holy See, or maybe Ambassador to Denmark

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How was Democratic turnout?

It’s a nonpartisan election in a state with nonpartisan registration, but not very good across the board:

https://twitter.com/bymattwild/status/1493782642247946248?s=21

To be fair a weekday special local primary election sounds like a made up example for the lowest turnout election possible.

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https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1557388901068808195

And so the pivot begins.

Is this the fabled moderate pivot that was supposed to befall Mastriano, Lake, Oz, Vance, Walker…

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https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1616437348396326912?s=20

her and Mitchell are the two liberal candidates correct?

Correct, but i don't see Mitchell having much of a chance. If I had to predict, this is how I would guess the primary ends up.

1. Protasiewicz (L)
2. Dorow (C)
3. Kelly (C)
4. Mitchell (L)

From the endorsements shown on Wiki Mitchell seems to the most left candidate

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Elderly Crookfield residents don’t want “poor” people in there. However they are having a lot of white, married, liberal millennials moving in which terrifies them just as much.

In a lot of conservative minds poor and liberal are roughly synonymous as they are both considered personal failings

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My party’s base makes worse decisions in primaries than a random group of chimpanzees from the zoo would.

You’re right and if they don’t fix in for 2024 they could get stuck in the habit and be shut out of power for the rest of the decade

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My party’s base makes worse decisions in primaries than a random group of chimpanzees from the zoo would.

You’re right and if they don’t fix in for 2024 they could get stuck in the habit and be shut out of power for the rest of the decade

I heard they nominated Trump for President in 2016. I mean, no way could he win. They should have gone with someone electable like Pataki.

Trump lost in 2020 and barely scrapped by a win in 2016. He lead the party to massive loses in 2018 and the party just had a disastrous midterm where they barely were able to win back the house cause they nominated a boatload of extreme, out of touch, borderline nonsensical candidates. It’s not just trump, and I’m not basing this off of one election.

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Side note but how do you pronounce Protasiewicz

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I think there’s a growing feeling that debating candidates whose opinions are so extreme and not based in reality, such as the election being stolen or that abortion should be completely banned, is a negative to society in general. And candidates who choose to debate them look stupid for engaging with someone that disconnected from reality.

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Sucks to be a Florence county resident

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https://twitter.com/WisRight_Ls/status/1633524212022272017?s=20

Outside of this headline, the article is also pretty good. Sounds like some Republican operatives are not happy with Kelly focusing on "defending the Constitution," saying essentially that no one cares about the Wisconsin State Constitution, compared to Protasiewicz who is campaigning on concrete issues (abortion and democracy).

I’m shocked! I’m stunned! I’m astounded!

Are you meaning to tell me people don’t care about a document that can change as easily as the tides???

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https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1636780077756170245?s=20

That’s sad, he’s the last of the La Follettes.

I also just realized Godlewski lost re-election

Edit: I was wrong she didn’t run for re-election as others have pointed out

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Oof, expected, but oof

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https://twitter.com/journalsentinel/status/1640434522041753606?s=46&t=cnaSCf...

In other words we don’t like who won so we are going to remove them from office. Great strategy there that won’t in anyway backfire and turn even more people off to you.

Question; if Janet is impeached and removed could Evers just re-appoint her?

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Kelly campaign lying? No way!

https://twitter.com/journalsentinel/status/1641404160598761475?s=20

When you’ve run out of strategic you start banging the table

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I also reduced my estimate from 1.44 million votes down to 1.41 million votes due to weather, meaning I have Janet winning by 4.4%, 52.2 to 47.8.

This is a very interesting and in-depth take. As a ATOC student an political junkie it’s always a nerd out when they collide. The overall result seems about what I’d expect given the polling we have. Again bravo for the analysis!

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Madison's turnout is at 32% at 11:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1643304168839340053?s=20

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1643308136525176837?s=20

Unless trhere was some evangelical revival that swept through the population of Madison last week this is terrible news of Kelly

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Will be very interesting if Prostaciewicz ends up winning decisively and you still have pundits who refuse to admit that abortion is a massive driving issue for voters. Would be ironic too given that Morning Consult just put out that poll about its power of "salience" dropping.

Regardless of who wins, the pundits will be at the nearest Denny's interviewing fat whites about how they're left behind or forgotten.

“We’re talking to Witt Rural outside of a polling station in Fort Middleofnowhere whose wife left him and who only drinks beer while crying in the dark. Tell us Witt, do you feel abandoned”

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Abortion is going to abort the Republican Party

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Milwaukee needs its own Ben Wikler, or he needs to travel there and try and duplicate what he's done in Dane.

The issue is that Dane is full of high propensity voter groups, college educated whites being the lion’s share. Whereas Milwaukee is almost all low propensity voters, a lot of black and Hispanic voters. The same tricks that work in Dane won’t work there

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Who is Koschnik? Why was he sacked?

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https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1686787706427260950?s=46

Okay, I'm absolutely thrilled that one of the most gerrymandered states in the country is going to receive electoral Justice with prompt redistricting, and that said redistricting need not wait until the next decennial census. However, what's the legal theory behind forcing half of the state senate to run for re-election only halfway through their four-year term?

Because if they didn't we'd have an awkward situation where parts of the state would effectively have two state senators while other parts wouldn't have any at all.

Is this not kinda what happens when redistricting occurs? I agree it’s weird, but kinda a symptom of the process.

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https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1687591596487766016

This is what I thought actually happened.  The four liberals asked for a meeting for a rules change soon after the May election, and Ziegler just refused to respond time and time again, so they scheduled one on their own to vote on the changes but didnt actually enact any rule changes.   Ziegler is delaying everything as much as possible and put it off until September 7th.

Gee that sounds like dereliction of duty, which is an impeachable offense isn’t it?

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Cope harder

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1687190869814755330

Scott Walker's legacy is gonna be wiped out now ugh.

Best possible timeline