Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

Who is Koschnik? Why was he sacked?

https://twitter.com/rossacrosswi/status/1686166696099258368?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

if it is struck down which is very likely will be Evers is probably going veto whatever replacement maps the legislature comes up with which means court appointed special master draws the map and both chambers instantly go to tossup next year.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

Dems would get a new senate seat and probably two new assembly seats in Milwaukee county in the West Allis/Wauwatosa area and a compact senate seat in Green Bay and Brown county. 

In the Assembly, they’d get compact seats in Wausau, Sheboygan, and probably a second seat around Green Bay and Eau Claire.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

under a fair map Democrats could easily get close to a majority in both chambers.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

under a fair map Democrats could easily get close to a majority in both chambers.

In most years, the senate would be around 19R-14D and the Assembly around 55R-44D.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

under a fair map Democrats could easily get close to a majority in both chambers.

In most years, the senate would be around 19R-14D and the Assembly around 55R-44D.

Why those numbers?

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

under a fair map Democrats could easily get close to a majority in both chambers.

In most years, the senate would be around 19R-14D and the Assembly around 55R-44D.

Why those numbers?

Based on Dems getting two or three new seats in Green Bay, Milwaukee county, and maybe Appleton in the senate and getting around 10 more seats in the assembly spread throughout the state in the smaller cities that are currently cracked and in Brown and Milwaukee counties.

[Gass3268]

Should note this is being filed directly to the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

https://twitter.com/alexandershur/status/1686767557984821248?s=46

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

under a fair map Democrats could easily get close to a majority in both chambers.

In most years, the senate would be around 19R-14D and the Assembly around 55R-44D.

Should note that the expectation in the geography thread is that this will not be a "neat redraw" of compactness and sensibility. Based on the types of leveled arguments that would need to overturn it, and the precedent set by other courts acting under said arguments, this is expected to be a map that has an equitable partisanship distribution : 50%+1 Biden, 50%+1 Johnson, a bit more for Evers. And if that requires a few compromises like in Michigan to correct for geography, and maintain nesting, so be it.

Here's the Senate map I drew, when the court election happened a few months back and everyone was drawing legislative lines:

[windjammer]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

under a fair map Democrats could easily get close to a majority in both chambers.

In most years, the senate would be around 19R-14D and the Assembly around 55R-44D.

I think the special redistricting master going to be appointed is going to apply the proportionality rule

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1686787706427260950?s=46

[windjammer]

Out of curiosity, the previous conservative majority in the WI Supreme Court really almost overturned the presidential results?

[Gass3268]

Out of curiosity, the previous conservative majority in the WI Supreme Court really almost overturned the presidential results?

3 of the 4 conservatives would have taken the case, but the former Chief Justice claims it just would have been to set the rules moving forward, but who knows.

The three dissenting conservative justices, led by Chief Justice Patience Roggensack, said the court should have decided whether votes should have counted in each of the four categories, and clarified the law for future elections.

“A significant portion of the public does not believe that the November 3, 2020, presidential election was fairly conducted,” Roggensack wrote. “Once again, four justices on this court cannot be bothered with addressing what the statutes require to assure that absentee ballots are lawfully cast.”

Source

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1686787706427260950?s=46

Okay, I'm absolutely thrilled that one of the most gerrymandered states in the country is going to receive electoral Justice with prompt redistricting, and that said redistricting need not wait until the next decennial census. However, what's the legal theory behind forcing half of the state senate to run for re-election only halfway through their four-year term?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1686787706427260950?s=46

Okay, I'm absolutely thrilled that one of the most gerrymandered states in the country is going to receive electoral Justice with prompt redistricting, and that said redistricting need not wait until the next decennial census. However, what's the legal theory behind forcing half of the state senate to run for re-election only halfway through their four-year term?

Because if they didn't we'd have an awkward situation where parts of the state would effectively have two state senators while other parts wouldn't have any at all.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1686787706427260950?s=46

Okay, I'm absolutely thrilled that one of the most gerrymandered states in the country is going to receive electoral Justice with prompt redistricting, and that said redistricting need not wait until the next decennial census. However, what's the legal theory behind forcing half of the state senate to run for re-election only halfway through their four-year term?

Because if they didn't we'd have an awkward situation where parts of the state would effectively have two state senators while other parts wouldn't have any at all.

Is this not kinda what happens when redistricting occurs? I agree it’s weird, but kinda a symptom of the process.

[Gass3268]

Out of curiosity, the previous conservative majority in the WI Supreme Court really almost overturned the presidential results?

3 of the 4 conservatives would have taken the case, but the former Chief Justice claims it just would have been to set the rules moving forward, but who knows.

The three dissenting conservative justices, led by Chief Justice Patience Roggensack, said the court should have decided whether votes should have counted in each of the four categories, and clarified the law for future elections.

“A significant portion of the public does not believe that the November 3, 2020, presidential election was fairly conducted,” Roggensack wrote. “Once again, four justices on this court cannot be bothered with addressing what the statutes require to assure that absentee ballots are lawfully cast.”

Source

Following up on this, looking at their dissents, Annette Ziegler (now the Chief Justice until Spring 2025) and Rebecca Bradley would have probably thrown out votes to give Trump the win.

[Brittain33]

This reminds me of when the Polish junta negotiated with Solidarity to allow free elections in 1989. What an incredible victory for freedom after years of gray autocracy and pretend elections.

[Pollster]

It is also important to remember that as constituencies get smaller the further down the ballot you go, the less votes are required to actually win. A Democrat winning a Trump +7 state assembly seat requires a significantly smaller investment than a Trump +7 Congressional district.

I recall reading somewhere that parties have been more likely to win upsets and overperform in state legislative races where the districts are small like New England and the midwest/great plains than in places where state legislative districts can rival or even surpass the population sizes of Congressional districts like California, Texas, and Florida.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Okay, I'm absolutely thrilled that one of the most gerrymandered states in the country is going to receive electoral Justice with prompt redistricting, and that said redistricting need not wait until the next decennial census. However, what's the legal theory behind forcing half of the state senate to run for re-election only halfway through their four-year term?

The argument being that if the districts you were elected under were illegal and unconstitutional, you don't have a valid claim to be an elected official and should have to run for re-election under legal lines.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1687523198965862409?t=fHfHq6QcstpfqA8oVD...

Congressional suit is apparently also forthcoming,  they are probably just seeing how immediate the legislative suit will get taken up.

[windjammer]

Out of curiosity, the previous conservative majority in the WI Supreme Court really almost overturned the presidential results?

3 of the 4 conservatives would have taken the case, but the former Chief Justice claims it just would have been to set the rules moving forward, but who knows.

The three dissenting conservative justices, led by Chief Justice Patience Roggensack, said the court should have decided whether votes should have counted in each of the four categories, and clarified the law for future elections.

“A significant portion of the public does not believe that the November 3, 2020, presidential election was fairly conducted,” Roggensack wrote. “Once again, four justices on this court cannot be bothered with addressing what the statutes require to assure that absentee ballots are lawfully cast.”

Source

Following up on this, looking at their dissents, Annette Ziegler (now the Chief Justice until Spring 2025) and Rebecca Bradley would have probably thrown out votes to give Trump the win.

Patience Roggensack has always striken me as a mainstream conservative who got significantly more conservative after getting embroiled into this hyper polarized situation

[Gass3268]

Liberals gut the power of the Chief Justice

https://twitter.com/alexandershur/status/1687599906586857472?s=46

[Atlas Force]

Cope harder

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1687190869814755330