Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Хahar 🤔]

Here's a quick map by ideological tendency with the two candidates on each side added together. Errors are likely.

[Minnesota Mike]

Quite a performance for the Liberal candidates in Dane County. Dane county voted 83% for the liberal candidates, compared to 79% for Evers(22), 76% for Biden(20), 70% for Clinton(16).  There were also more votes cast in Dane County than any other  county in the state including Milwaukee County.

[Minnesota Mike]

Janet Protasiewicz by herself received more votes than the two conservative candidates. Overall the Liberal candidates outpolled the conservatives 54-46.

[THG]

My party’s base makes worse decisions in primaries than a random group of chimpanzees from the zoo would.

[Lief 🗽]

Quite a performance for the Liberal candidates in Dane County. Dane county voted 83% for the liberal candidates, compared to 79% for Evers(22), 76% for Biden(20), 70% for Clinton(16).  There were also more votes cast in Dane County than any other  county in the state including Milwaukee County.

Dane County going increasingly beast mode since 2016 has single-handedly kept Wisconsin statewide elections (mostly) blue in the Trump era. Inspiring to see.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

My party’s base makes worse decisions in primaries than a random group of chimpanzees from the zoo would.

You’re right and if they don’t fix in for 2024 they could get stuck in the habit and be shut out of power for the rest of the decade

[Oryxslayer]

20,000 absentee votes left in Milwaukee

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1628236830138150916?s=20

I was wondering why MKE hadn’t updated in awhile, this explains it.

Also, another thing I wanted to add is that it appears there is still some residual downballot strength for Dems in the Driftless region. Vernon was won by Evers last November, and Janet is winning it with 51% right now; the two liberals are also combining for 53% of the vote in Jackson, which is a county Trump won by 15 points; in Pepin and Buffalo, Janet is substantially outrunning Biden. In Dunn County, the two liberals are combining for 53% of the vote in a county Trump won by nearly 10.

A lot of the Trumpy voters in the Driftless Area don't usually vote.

Quite a performance for the Liberal candidates in Dane County. Dane county voted 83% for the liberal candidates, compared to 79% for Evers(22), 76% for Biden(20), 70% for Clinton(16).  There were also more votes cast in Dane County than any other  county in the state including Milwaukee County.

Dane County going increasingly beast mode since 2016 has single-handedly kept Wisconsin statewide elections (mostly) blue in the Trump era. Inspiring to see.

This was mentioned a few times before the results came in, but I guess I'll repeat it: the coalitions for these off-year nonpartisan court races =/= midterm or general coalitions. Partially because of turnout, partially because, like ballot initiatives, its not unusual to have partisan voter break ranks for rational reasons.

Now one way this manifests itself is with lower dem turnout in Milwaukee relative to the state and higher Dem turnout in Madison. Historically the coalitions have more resembled the Obama  2012 alliances, with a strong conservative WOW and a liberal rural west. The simplest explanation of course is that older voters are more likely to participate in their off-cycle contests, and a older electorate means the voter coalitions will resemble those of yesteryear. But that is only one of many reasons. This vote however shows the increased attention and importance of this contest  harmonized the court coalition with the national one in some areas, like Ozaukee and. In others though we still had the old patterns of court contests - the rural west and areas hit by the snowstorm for example.

St. Croix I think deserves special attention,  cause while I am a big believer that this county is moving left - and I know you can get an Evers 2022 state house seat in there if a remap was ordered - it's still a ways off. It seems the confluence of the snowstorm and Dem EV banked votes created a unrepresentitive D-leaning electorate. Even I would be surprised if that holds in two months.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

My party’s base makes worse decisions in primaries than a random group of chimpanzees from the zoo would.

You’re right and if they don’t fix in for 2024 they could get stuck in the habit and be shut out of power for the rest of the decade

I heard they nominated Trump for President in 2016. I mean, no way could he win. They should have gone with someone electable like Pataki.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

My party’s base makes worse decisions in primaries than a random group of chimpanzees from the zoo would.

You’re right and if they don’t fix in for 2024 they could get stuck in the habit and be shut out of power for the rest of the decade

I heard they nominated Trump for President in 2016. I mean, no way could he win. They should have gone with someone electable like Pataki.

Trump lost in 2020 and barely scrapped by a win in 2016. He lead the party to massive loses in 2018 and the party just had a disastrous midterm where they barely were able to win back the house cause they nominated a boatload of extreme, out of touch, borderline nonsensical candidates. It’s not just trump, and I’m not basing this off of one election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My party’s base makes worse decisions in primaries than a random group of chimpanzees from the zoo would.

You’re right and if they don’t fix in for 2024 they could get stuck in the habit and be shut out of power for the rest of the decade

And it shall be glorious!

[MasterJedi]

My party’s base makes worse decisions in primaries than a random group of chimpanzees from the zoo would.

As WOW has moderated it has allowed the Trumpian, rural conservatives to take control of the party.

[Pollster]

My party’s base makes worse decisions in primaries than a random group of chimpanzees from the zoo would.

Looks like they dodged a massive bullet in the State Senate District 8 primary, fwiw.

[Nyvin]

Democrats should really have an easy time beating an election denying, anti-abortion activist that is known as Dan Kelly.   The ads practically write themselves.  I'd say the race is Lean D now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS underperform when Ron Johnson isnt on the ballot and he is gone in 28 anyways in a Prez yr


I don't see any RS posting on WI because Ron Johnson is not running, what a shame Barnes lost

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1628447538775789568?s=20

[walleye26]

I think we should debate whether or not The next Democrat to win a presidential election carries Ozaukee County.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think we should debate whether or not The next Democrat to win a presidential election carries Ozaukee County.

It's amazing that Democrats might win Ozaukee before they win Delaware in Ohio.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1628447538775789568?s=20

Yeah, this is the kind of thing that makes me think that the Dems are right now favored, not the overall result which waas subject to a number of outside forces that were elaborated on earlier. Essentially, the hybrid results between the 'older' coalition that elected previous liberal judges and the national Democratic coalition seem to have mainly gone in one direction. Dems kept their former margins in the West and north, while improving in the Northeast 'BOW' counties and the Southwest 'WOW' - including Ozaukee - like national Dems.

[walleye26]

Another wild card I think we can think about is how many Dorow—> Protasiewicz voters there may be. WOW favored Dorow, and while I believe that they will mostly support Kelly, I would imagine that some won’t. As coalitions have shifted, WOW cannot control the GOP primaries like they used to. Even if only 10% of voters move to Janet in the April election, Kelly is toast.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think we should debate whether or not The next Democrat to win a presidential election carries Ozaukee County.

It's amazing that Democrats might win Ozaukee before they win Delaware in Ohio.

Delaware still probably flips first. Trump only won it by 7, while Ozaukee was still Trump+12.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think we should debate whether or not The next Democrat to win a presidential election carries Ozaukee County.

If Biden’s re-elected he probably won’t carry Ozaukee.

[John Dule]

Here's a quick map by ideological tendency with the two candidates on each side added together. Errors are likely.

Thanks for doing this. I was watching that jerk Let's Talk Elections YouTuber try to cover this race and describe the swing, and I almost screamed at the screen "Just show me the map with the sides added up!"

[Gass3268]

Here's a quick map by ideological tendency with the two candidates on each side added together. Errors are likely.

Thanks for doing this. I was watching that jerk Let's Talk Elections YouTuber try to cover this race and describe the swing, and I almost screamed at the screen "Just show me the map with the sides added up!"

You can add Kenosha and Lafayette to the liberal side too.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1628599278279983108?s=20

Milwaukee County turnout was solid yesterday and it helps that inner suburbs that used to be Republican/conservative now vote strongly to the left, so the margins are better than they once were in off year elections. Dane County is a machine and you can see the effects of the snow storm in the northwest.

[wbrocks67]

Slight bump for Dems in the updated vote tally - went from 53.9-46.1 to 54.0-46.0 with a tiny update.