Spanish elections and politics

[BigSerg]

Other poll

El español

Psoe:25.5%
PP:21.6%
Cs:19%
UP:17.8%
Vox:8.5%

Vox,pp, cs=49.1%

This poll is the only one that does not give an absolute majority to the right. Quite strange since the percentage of right-wing votes largely wins to the left

[Former President tack50]

Other poll

El español

Psoe:25.5%
PP:21.6%
Cs:19%
UP:17.8%
Vox:8.5%

Vox,pp, cs=49.1%

This poll is the only one that does not give an absolute majority to the right. Quite strange since the percentage of right-wing votes largely wins to the left

To be fair, considering the percentages for each party I imagine Vox is now acting partially as a spoiler for the right, kind of what IU traditionally did for the left. They are getting 9%, but with that percentage they are probably getting around 20 seats.

The best example I can put is the 1996 election, where Aznar became PM even though the combined right was defeated by the combined left 39-48. Then again that was in an era where PP-nationalist deals weren't exactly impossible, with Aznar "speaking Catalan behind closed doors".

But even if you add CiU and PNV (or CC) to the right's total it still loses 45-48.

For another, more recient example, in the 2015 general election the combined left (PSOE+Podemos+IU) beat the combined right (PP+Cs) 46-43, but the combined right got slightly more seats (163 for PP+Cs; 161 for PSOE+Podemos+IU)

[Former President tack50]

That seems a pretty huge bump for Vox...?

To be honest, considering the Andalusian election results, it might actually be too low! Then again I don't think an "even swing" would be accurate, the Andalusian election also had particular circumstances.

Still, I'd say Vox is probably just shy of double digits at this point.

[Former President tack50]

This is something I saw today on the news that I found interesting.

Apparently the association of journalists covering parliamentary activity gave prizes to congressmen (also senators and MEPs) on the following categories.

Best speaker (probably the most important one): Ana Oramas (CC)
Runner ups: Joan Tardá (ERC), Albert Rivera (Cs), Pablo Iglesias (Podemos)

Best government critic: Pablo Casado (PP)
Runner-ups: Rafael Hernándo (PP), Albert Rivera (Cs), Beatriz Escudero (PP)

Best opposition critic: Carmen Calvo (Deputy Prime Minister, PSOE)
Runner-ups: Pedro Sánchez (Prime Minister, PSOE); María Jesús Montero (Treasury Minister, PSOE), Aitor Esteban (PNV)

Best press relations: María Jesús Montero (Treasury Minister, PSOE)
Runner ups: Jose Manuel Villegas (Cs), Ione Belarra (UP), Carles Campuzano (PDECat)

Best press critic: Adriana Lastra (PSOE)
Runner ups: Dolors Montserrat (PP), Rafael Mayoral (UP), Carles Mulet (Compromís)

Most active congressman: Yolanda Díaz (UP)
Runner ups: María Jesús Moro (PP), Oskar Matute (EH Bildu), Ángeles Álvarez (PSOE)

Best internet presence: Melisa Rodríguez (Cs)
Runner ups: Gabriel Rufián (ERC), Ignacio Cosidó (PP), Pablo Iglesias (UP)

Best revelation congressman: Ione Belarra (UP)
Runner ups: Teodoro García Egea (PP), Marta Sorlí (Compromís), Guillermo Díaz (Cs)

1 million euro parliamentary question: Carlos Floriano Corrales (PP)

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Runner ups: Ignasi Candela Serna (Compromís) (kinda hard to translate I'd say)

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Dolors Montserrat (PP):

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Best senator: Ander Gil (PSOE)
Runner ups: Ignacio Cosidó (PP), Maribel Mora (Podemos), Jon Iñarritu (EH Bildu)

Best revelation senator: Luis Aznar (PP)
Runner ups: Lorena Roldán (Cs), María José López Santana (NCa) Esther Muñoz (PP)

Best European Parliament congressman: Iratxe García (PSOE)
Runner ups: Javier Nart (Ciudadanos), Miguel Urbán (Podemos), Marina Albiol (IU)

http://www.periodistasparlamentarios.org/?p=4928

Interestingly enough, Santa Cruz de Tenerife's delegation actually saw 2 prizes (out of 7 MPs!). Come to think about it, Santa Cruz de Tenerife has some of the best congressmen IMO. Then again that might bias since I see them a lot on regional TV.

I have to say I generally agree with the prizes (at least for the politicians I know). Ana Oramas, even though I hate her party regionally, is probably one of the better speakers in Congress. Small regionalist parties often have good speakers, back in the 00s the tiny Aragonese Chunta had former singer Jose Antonio Labordeta. And of course the Cantabrian Regionalist Party has Revilla as leader, also very good speaker (albeit quite populist).

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez and the Catalan premier Quim Torra are meeting in Barcelona right now.

Tomorrow Pedro Sánchez will chair a meeting of the Council of Ministers, while pro-independence activists will protest in the streets.  The cabinet meeting in Barcelona was scheduled months ago. However recent developments contributed to escalate tension, particularly some ststements made by premier Torra about the "Slovenian path to independence". There was fear of violent incidents at protests tomorrow leading to an abrupt end of the legislature. There have been calls to calm the situation. The meeting between Sánchez and Torra might be a step in deescalation...

Meanwhile, the jailed Catalan leaders on hunger strike cakked off

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/20/inenglish/1545305359_830896.html

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A group of Catalan politicians including fuve former premiers released yesterday an open letter calling the men to cease the protest, in order to protect their lives and health; ensuring their "optimum participation" in the ongoing trials and in the future of the country.

[Velasco]

The cabinet meeting was regarded "positive" despite protests and road blocks

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/21/inenglish/1545412397_365710.html

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PP, Cs and Madrid conservative media have a radically different narrative. Any attempt of dialogue is described as treason, surrender or "humiliation". The Spanish Right is currently split in three parties. They have in common a tough stance against separatists. They also have in common the influence of former PM José María Aznar, who is very clear in what regards the "secessionist challenge". PP and Cs want the immediate implementation of article 155 (direct rule, suspension of regional autonomy) for an indefinite period. Some people think the constitutionality of such a drastic measure is dubious. Other people think that implementing article 155 without a clear reason, aside "the complete defeat of separatism" (Vox), would represent a democratic involution. No dialogue. No surrender. Ulster.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently PP and Cs have reached a deal in Andalucia. However, that deal also apparently excluded Vox, who is now claiming that they will vote against their deal.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/PP-Cs-impuestos-Gobierno-plataforma_0_848665559.html

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-excluir-PSOE-PP-Ciudadanos-Gobierno_0_848665672.html

If that happens, a 2 month countdown from the investiture vote will start. If there's no premier by then there will be a 2nd regional election (probably some time around April?), just like in 2015-2016 but at a regional scale.

[Velasco]

Euskobarometro poll for the Basque Parliament

EAJ-PNV 38.3% 31 seats (+3)
EH Bildu 23.1% 18 seats (=)
PSE-EE  13.5% 11 seats (+2)
Elkarrekin Podemos 10 3%  7 seats (-4)
PP 8.2% 7 seats (-2)
Cs 3% 1 seat (+1)

Sample size: 1200
Fieldwork: October 15 to November 9

[Former President tack50]

While it's not rare to find polls for local elections on certain municipalities, it is indeed rare to find polls for local elections nationally. However ABC seems to have done one. Here are its results

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-ciudadanos-y-superan-cuatro-puntos-izquierda-elecciones-municipales-201812262307_noticia.html

Popular vote:



Councillors in the 52 provincial capitals



Chances of a PP+Cs+Vox majority by provincial capital



About the last two, they are mostly based on an "even swing" model from 2015 so they can and will be inaccurate, particularly in cases of small towns with popular left wing incumbents.

If we give the left every town in brown or red, that would be 20 provincial capitals. However, a bad sign would be that of those 20 provincial capitals, a whopping 14 would be located in places with some sort of nationalist or regionalist movement, where the left+regional right basically run up the score (Galicia, Basque Country, Navarra, Catalonia, Canary Islands)

And of the few outside those regions, none of the 6 would be particularly large towns, with only Cádiz being above 100 000 people.

As for the popular vote, everything seems low but that's because of local parties. The PP-PSOE difference seems in line with most local elections thus far, all elections since 1999 have ended in virtual ties except for 2011.

[Former President tack50]

Today was the first session of the newly elected parliament of Andalucia. There had been a lot of negotiations to get the "parliament table" (which basically regulates parliamentary procedures and what gets and doesn't get a vote).

In the end there was a deal orchestrated by Cs so everyone got at least 1 seat (there are 7). However, AA dropped out of the deal last minute in order to "not soften the image of the far right".

In the end, though a PP-Cs-Vox deal Marta Bosquet (Cs) was elected parliament president (first Cs parliament president), and it's expected that eventually there will be a right wing deal.

The full composition of the "parliament table" ended up as:

2 PSOE
2 PP
2 Cs
1 Vox

https://www.elmundo.es/andalucia/2018/12/27/5c24b010fdddff18328b469b.html

So there's a right wing majority, a PP-Cs majority and a PSOE-Cs majority. IMO this distribution is unfair, Cs should have 1 less member and AA one more. But then again that's what AA gets for dropping out I guess. Then again it seems that if AA hadn't dropped out maybe their seat would come from PSOE and not Cs so maybe it wasn't a bad idea after all

[Velasco]

PP and Cs closed a deal on Wednesday to take control of the speaker's committee in the Andalusian parliament. as well as they sealed a 90 point deal with measures to govern the southern region. As a result, Juan Manuel Moreno (PP) is the likely next premier while Marta Bosquet (Cs) is the new speaker with the support of PP, Cs and Vox. The far-right party is demanding to negotiate the points of the deal between PP and Cs in order to vote the Moreno's investiture, while the oranges oppose to any modification. Anyway I suspect they are acting.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/27/inenglish/1545899006_561835.html

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The bolded sentence is not totally correct. A far-right party called Fuerza Nueva (FN) led by a certain Blas Piñar won a seat in the 1979 general elections. There are differences between FN and Vox. The latter was the party of the hardcore Francoists (they were called "the bunker"), while the Manuel Fraga's AP (currently PP) represented by that time a conservative vote ("sociological Francoism") somewhat nostalgic of the old regime but seeking to adapt to the new times. Vox is a radical split of PP which advocates a extremely tough stance on the territorial crisis and with strong affinity with the French FN (currently RN) on immigration and islamophobia, but not on economics (FN/RN is protectionist and Vox neoliberal). In all likelihood there is some Franco nostalgia in Vox (a candidate for Málaga told a journalist that Franco's regime was not a dictatorship), but obviously the Vox phenomenon doesn't rely on them.

[Lumine]

I must say, it is rather interesting how Franco didn't manage to hold onto significant popular support after death, and how much openly Francoist parties failed despite the survival of some vague notions of sociological Francoism in AP/PP. There's plently of examples of post-dictatorship democracies in which parties nostalgical of a given regime, its leader or his policies have managed to survive and even garner significant support, and it's fascinating to see Spain fully reversed that potential trend.

[Velasco]

I must say, it is rather interesting how Franco didn't manage to hold onto significant popular support after death, and how much openly Francoist parties failed despite the survival of some vague notions of sociological Francoism in AP/PP. There's plently of examples of post-dictatorship democracies in which parties nostalgical of a given regime, its leader or his policies have managed to survive and even garner significant support, and it's fascinating to see Spain fully reversed that potential trend.

Possibly this is related to the particular circumstances of that historical period, after the death of Franco. On the one hand there is the trauma of the Spanish Civil War and the fear of another conflict, which was shared by people on the left and the right. On the other hand, there was a huge thirst of modernity in Spain that became increasingly evident in the 60s and the 70s. I guess both factors favoured the reformist elements of the regime (Afolfo Suárez and part of the UCD leadership), as well as favoured pact over rupture on the left. As for the second factor, modernity was associated with democracy and EU integration (this explains why Spain is still comparatively more pro EU than other countries). There was a strong "sociological Francoism", but a majority of these conservative elements was in favour of a "controlled" transition. The violent far right elements were a minority, but they were quite visible (Atocha killing in 1977, coup attempt in 1981). Only the collapse of the UCD allowed Manuel Fraga to become the leader of the opposition in 1982, but he was unable to break the so called 'Fraga's ceiling' due to his close association to the old regime. Fraga had to give way to a younger generation and retreat to his stronghold in Galicia...

[Former President tack50]

For what is worth, you could argue that the "Jose María Ruiz Mateos Electoral Group" was also sort of a far right party, they ran on "Spain for the Spanish, jobs for everybody" and had an anti-EU campaign of sorts (back in the 80s and 90s!)

https://www.lasexta.com/programas/el-objetivo/noticias/asi-era-el-populismo-de-ruiz-mateos-que-me-voteis-leches-a-ver-si-os-enterais_20161120583226140cf24c3ff69be60c.html

Ruiz Mateos was somewhat more popular than Blas Piñar as well.

Though I think Ruiz Mateos wasn't really far right and more of just a pure populist protest vote against Felipe González and the establishment. Same with Jesus Gil's GIL later on (who never ran on far right positions I think)

Of course, Vox is very different from all of those. I can't really think of any comparisons that would come without a flaw.

Also, while Fuerza Nueva was the first to get seats in a Spanish parliament, Vox is still technically the first to get seats in a regional assembly, as by the time of the first regional elections (1983) Fuerza Nueva was already dead.

Closest thing to the far right getting seats in a regional assembly thus far was Plataforma x Catalunya in 2010, who got 2.5% of the vote and would have needed 3% to get in. PxC actually had some sucess in local elections, but nothing beyond that, and when the secessionist movement started they quickly lost steam as people started voting based on that and not on immigration

[Velasco]

José Maria Ruiz Mateos and Jesús Gil were clearly right wing populists. I think that Ruiz Mateos was a staunch social conservative, while the populist stances of Jesús Gil on law and order (probably on immigration too) were very close to Vox.  These populist figures may appeal the same kind of angry conservative voters than Vox. Probably the difference between them is that Vox is more "ideological" and more vocal on certain issues.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I always viewed Jesus Gil as a more Berlusconian figure than a true hard rightist. (Actually, it's worth asking: did Marbella have a decent Vox vote?)

[bigic]

As for Gil, in Ceuta Vox is second by a recent poll with ~20% support. Ceuta was a Gil stronghold - they won the election in 1999.

[Velasco]

I always viewed Jesus Gil as a more Berlusconian figure than a true hard rightist. (Actually, it's worth asking: did Marbella have a decent Vox vote?)

Possibly Gil was more close to Berlusconi than to Salvini. I meant that Jesus Gil was a right wing populist with tough stances on law snd order. As pointed in the previous post, the GIL party was particularly succesful in Ceuta and Melilla. Both places are Spanish outposts in Morocco with strong Muslim populations. They sre PP strongholds and presumably breeding grounds for parties like Vox.

As for the Marbella municipality, results were as follows:

PSOE 24%, PP 22.8%, Cs 21.1%, Vox 13.3%, AA 12.6%, PACMA 2.4%

The PSOE plurality may be misleading. Marbella and the municipalities in the coast of Málaga province (Costa del Sol) lean to the right. PP came first in previous elections. This time the fragmentation of the right allowed that socialists are ahead despite heavy loses. The three parties on the right are all above avearage with an aggregate 57.2%, while PSOE and AA are below average with an aggregate 36.6%. Possibly the Vox results at precinct level are interesting to watch, especially in high income developments close to golf courses...

I linked a map of results by precinct in a previous page

[Former President tack50]

As for Gil, in Ceuta Vox is second by a recent poll with ~20% support. Ceuta was a Gil stronghold - they won the election in 1999.

Yeah, GIL was very strong for some bizarre reason in the 2 autonomous cities. The 2000 general election is actually an even better example with GIL being second with around 25% of the vote even though they polled at 0.35% nationally!

I wouldn't be too surprised if Vox managed to win the Ceuta or Melilla mayor-premiership or win the general elections there, particularly if PP collapses for some reason. I still think it should be strong enough for a plurality win though (remember Ceuta and Melilla have only 1 seat each)

[Mike88]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

[jaichind]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

[Oryxslayer]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

What probably happens is a PP-C's minority govt with outside support from VOX, similar to Andalusia right now.

[Mike88]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

In a ungovernability crisis, Spain is already in one, sort of. But, yeah, these numbers don't exude stability. About C's, i don't think Vox would be a big issue as they would only negotiate with PP and then, maybe give crumbs to Vox to assure their votes in an investiture. After that, a PP-C's, or C's-PP, could govern with the occasional support of Vox or juggle with the divisions in the PSOE. That's my take.

[Former President tack50]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

Worth noting that that poll gave a virtual tie in terms of seats between UP and Vox (45-47 for UP; 43-45 for Vox)

That seems odd (I don't think UP's vote is that inefficient, they should be on the low 50s IMO)

Also, that poll actually placed Vox in 1st place in the 2 cities in North Africa: Ceuta and Melilla! That does seem like a possibility as they are huge right wing stronholds where Vox's message will have a huge public but still

[Former President tack50]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

Actually, I don't think there will be an ungovernability crisis with these results. My guess for the next government formation is:

PSOE+Cs gets a majority dependent o no one, or at worst the tiny Canarian Coalition: PSOE+Cs government gets formed

If not, if PP+Cs+Vox has a majority, a PP+Cs coalition government is formed, with outside support from Vox

If neither of those has a majority, but somehow PSOE+UP has one (with the help of "pragmatic" nationalists, ie CC, PNV, Compromís, etc) then a PSOE+UP government gets formed

If none of those options has a majority (ie everything depends on the Catalan nationalists), then we indeed have a governability problem and we will have a 2nd election (or maybe a very weak PSOE minority government like the current one)

Right now, my chances would be:

55%: Some sort of PP+Cs+Vox government
30%: Some sort of PSOE+Cs government
10%: Governability crisis / New elections
5: Some sort of PSOE+UP or PSOE minority government