IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Frenchrepublican]

Morning Consult has Trump's approval in Iowa (-8) lower than in Nevada (-7) and Arizona (-7).

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Morning consult is a bad pollster, last year they had Trump underwater in ND and IN. The problem is that they are doing a big national poll and then they extrapolate state numbers from the national poll, but when you do this you can easily end up with a unrepresentative sample of the state in question

[Frenchrepublican]

Im extremely dissapointed in the DSCC. Endorsing this early, and for a rather no-name candidate who's known for having a ballot signature scandal(it wasnt her, but she will be associated with it) doesnt look good for our chances here.

Ernst is not really vulnerable and IA is not on the path to a D senate majority

[Frenchrepublican]

It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

Why ? Because she out raised Ernst by $ 100k. You’re really overreacting here.

[Frenchrepublican]

It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

Why ? Because she out raised Ernst by $ 100k. You’re really overreacting here.

I mean, expectations were very low for Democrats in this race, so he might just mean relatively.

This. I still think it's a Lean Republican race, fwiw, but it does give me a little more confidence than before.

Also, it's funny how FrenchRepublican suggests that I'm overreacting about this when he can't even admit that North Carolina or Georgia are practically tossups at this point even after people show him plenty of evidence to prove it.

Plenty of evidence ? Sure, if you want, but the fact that democrats have lost every statewide elections held in Georgia since 2002 disprove your ’’plenty of evidence’’ that GA Sen races are tossups.

[Frenchrepublican]

It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

Why ? Because she out raised Ernst by $ 100k. You’re really overreacting here.

I mean, expectations were very low for Democrats in this race, so he might just mean relatively.

This. I still think it's a Lean Republican race, fwiw, but it does give me a little more confidence than before.

Also, it's funny how FrenchRepublican suggests that I'm overreacting about this when he can't even admit that North Carolina or Georgia are practically tossups at this point even after people show him plenty of evidence to prove it.

Plenty of evidence ? Sure, if you want, but the fact that democrats have lost every statewide elections held in Georgia since 2002 disprove your ’’plenty of evidence’’ that GA Sen races are tossups.

2016: Michigan hasnt been won by a Republican since 1988, therefore its going blue.
2008: Virginia hasnt been won by a Democrat since 1960, therefore its going red.

Using historical voting patterns is fine to use as evidence, but you shouldnt disregard overwhelming evidence just because it contradicts history.

Sure, dude, but your are talking about presidential elections. Concerning GA I’m talking about major statewide elections (Pres + Sen + Gov), and when you look at it the Democratic drought has been particularly long. Now I agree that GA is trending D (it’s a fact) and the state will likely trend D again next year and by the mid of the next decade it should be a true swing state, but as of now it’s still a R-leaning state and if Dems have a relatively high floor their ceiling is still under 50%

[Frenchrepublican]

I may not live in Iowa anymore (need to update my avatar) but I think this is going to be a sleeper race. Everyone thinks Ernst is safe. Yet Iowa has been one of the hardest-hit states by the tariff war, the economy, and ethanol. Mass layoffs have been happening, and farmers are struggling. I personally know several farmers in Iowa and at least one of them - who voted for Trump - said she and her husband have been seriously considering giving up their farming operation, as it's a struggle for them anymore. Sonny Perdue's comments about family farms certainly don't help things.

Everyone thinks that just because Theresa Greenfield isn't some massive Tom Vilsack-esque name that she's automatically a loser and that Iowa recruitment is terrible. Democrats specifically sought her out to run, and I think she's been at the top of their list for awhile. She probably would have won the 3rd District if her campaign manager hadn't have forged those signatures - that whole situation, PS, she handled amazingly and as well as anyone could have hoped for (fired him, tossed out all the signatures and made a remarkable effort to get all the signatures again within less than 48 hours). Kay Hagan was a nobody before she became a senator. Did anybody know who Scott Brown was before he got elected? And let's not forget; Joni herself nobody gave a second thought to, and everyone thought Braley would win. The Iowa Democratic Party is a lot better than it was even a year and a half ago, and Ernst is vulnerable. I consider the race Lean R, but it's closer to Tossup than Likely R. Trust me on this; I lived in Iowa and I saw firsthand the struggles the state is going through.

Ask Heidi Heitkamp Fred Hubbell about how these voters care about the tariffs.

Fixed

[Frenchrepublican]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

[Frenchrepublican]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

Do you think 2020 will be about the same, partisan-wise, as 2014?

Iowa is trending rightward, and Ernst is very popular. Wouldn't surprise me if she won by 20.

Tell me more about this rightward trend from 2016 to 2018 in Iowa.

How is Ernst’s popularity compared to other senators in the Morning Consult polls? I think she’s in the bottom 6.

Morning Consult is BS, they have Trump's approval in Iowa as worse than Virginia. Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

Yeah, Morning consult polls are trash, they have Trump down in Nebraska and they give him better approval rate in VA than in OH

[Frenchrepublican]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

So why are you even talking about floods on a thread about IA-SEN ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

So why are you even talking about floods on a thread about IA-SEN ?

Because Iowa’s farmers were in terrible shape before the floods because of the Trade War, and still willing to give Trump and Ernst a chance, and since then a) Trump has screwed over ethanol producers by favoring petroleum producers and b) the floods in March knocked out any chance of it being a good harvest. Farmers’ positions are markedly worse than they were in February and Ernst has looked ineffective about helping them while also hugging trump.

I don’t think it’s a surprise that incumbents can be affected by events that are partially or totally outside their control. Famously, Obama took a beating from the BP oil spill and Ebola in africa.

You and other Atlas democrats should really stop assuming that Trump will suddenly lose the support of Farmers. He is not : https://www.agweb.com/article/farmer-support-trump-rebounds-amid-impeachment-inquiry

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

[Frenchrepublican]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

So why are you even talking about floods on a thread about IA-SEN ?

Because Iowa’s farmers were in terrible shape before the floods because of the Trade War, and still willing to give Trump and Ernst a chance, and since then a) Trump has screwed over ethanol producers by favoring petroleum producers and b) the floods in March knocked out any chance of it being a good harvest. Farmers’ positions are markedly worse than they were in February and Ernst has looked ineffective about helping them while also hugging trump.

I don’t think it’s a surprise that incumbents can be affected by events that are partially or totally outside their control. Famously, Obama took a beating from the BP oil spill and Ebola in africa.

You and other Atlas democrats should really stop assuming that Trump will suddenly lose the support of Farmers. He is not : https://www.agweb.com/article/farmer-support-trump-rebounds-amid-impeachment-inquiry

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

You're a random French dude obsessing over Iowa politics. Amercian politics in general (not just Iowa politics) Holy sh**t.

Well, political stuff sucks in France.

[Frenchrepublican]

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

Yes, a Republican candidate winning an open seat race with 52% in the best Republican year of the decade has proven herself to be an unbeatable titan who is incapable of losing even after her state flipped 2 of its 3 Republican House seats to Democratic in the midterms.

The 2 seats you are referring to are 5 points more D than Iowa as whole. And you (and a few other people on this forum) should really stop assuming that every future election will be as much D friendly than 2018 was

[Frenchrepublican]

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

Yes, a Republican candidate winning an open seat race with 52% in the best Republican year of the decade has proven herself to be an unbeatable titan who is incapable of losing even after her state flipped 2 of its 3 Republican House seats to Democratic in the midterms.

The 2 seats you are referring to are 5 points more D than Iowa as whole. And you (and a few other people on this forum) should really stop assuming that every future election will be as much D friendly than 2018 was

I don't think every future election be, but the evidence so far is that the one election we're talking about now--2020--is going to look a *lot* more like 2018 than like 2014.

I don't know, maybe you're right and 2020 will be as Republican as 2014 or moreso. I think the polling evidence is pointing the other way though.

I never said that 2020 will be as much R friendly than 2014 ; but yeah I doubt that 2020 will be a D+8.5 year. And even if 2020 is another blue wave it's easy to see Ernst surviving simply by winning IA4th by a large margin while losing the three other districts (see Kim Reynolds)