2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

So why isn't Kennedy simply announcing a VP candidate within the next 10 days?

https://apnews.com/article/kyrsten-sinema-arizona-8043c3333e6d87da2404f58339f1e1e6

"Mr Kennedy, can we get Tulsi for VP?"
"We have Tulsi at home."

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

It would be really stupid by RFK Jr. to miss the ID ballot on March 15, just because he didn't name a VP candidate by this deadline (and as others have said, it could literally be any name).

[Redban]

https://twitter.com/Holden_Culotta/status/1765202591774851341

[Redban]

It would be really stupid by RFK Jr. to miss the ID ballot on March 15, just because he didn't name a VP candidate by this deadline (and as others have said, it could literally be any name).

He wants to vet his VP thoroughly, and maybe he wants to save his VP announcement for later so that he can “time” the media boost at the right moment

He can name anyone for Idaho, but maybe he feels it wouldn’t look as good politically to do so, naming some random person just to be on the ballot in ID

And given the alleged extension, his team likely had confidence that they’d win their lawsuit against Idaho

For those reasons, he didn’t simply pick a name as a running name to be on the ballot in Idaho

[AltWorlder]

How normal is this Libertarian primary? Usual amount of contention or are the Libs in disarray?

https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2024/03/super-tuesday-sees-libertarians-in-four-states-participate-in-presidential-primaries/

Meanwhile, North Carolina witnessed the most hotly contested primary race for Libertarians of the night. Ten candidates appeared on the ballot, alongside the option to vote for no preference. According to results from the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 2,042 voters expressed no preference, comprising 40.42% of the total. Among the actual candidates, Chase Oliver secured the highest rank with 671 votes, followed by David Dunlap with 464 votes and Jacob Hornberger with 356.

The season of uncommitted!

[Open Source Intelligence]

How normal is this Libertarian primary? Usual amount of contention or are the Libs in disarray?

https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2024/03/super-tuesday-sees-libertarians-in-four-states-participate-in-presidential-primaries/

Meanwhile, North Carolina witnessed the most hotly contested primary race for Libertarians of the night. Ten candidates appeared on the ballot, alongside the option to vote for no preference. According to results from the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 2,042 voters expressed no preference, comprising 40.42% of the total. Among the actual candidates, Chase Oliver secured the highest rank with 671 votes, followed by David Dunlap with 464 votes and Jacob Hornberger with 356.

The season of uncommitted!

If you go back in time, it's pretty common. One, they're beauty contests that mean nothing. Two, Libertarians are pretty strongly for only party members should pick our nominee, i.e. convention.

Going to 2020, "No Preference" won North Carolina with 30%. Top candidate was at 9%. Even in 2016 when Gary Johnson was a clear frontrunner, he won North Carolina over No Preference 42-36.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Confronted over his connections to Epstein, RFK Jr defends himself by listing other "random" people who would just drop by:
https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

[Compuzled_One]

Well, seems No Labels will do it, though I'm not sure who's left for them to nominate.

https://apnews.com/article/no-labels-candidates-selection-third-party-ea3f28a5e35f0789e873ac42369b0a77

[mjba257]

Well, seems No Labels will do it, though I'm not sure who's left for them to nominate.

https://apnews.com/article/no-labels-candidates-selection-third-party-ea3f28a5e35f0789e873ac42369b0a77

I have a sneaking suspicion it's gonna be Nikki Haley. Maybe just a hunch, but with all the money she still has at her disposal, plus the fact that their is a clear sect of voters yearning for someone like her, thinks she may make a run for it.

[Redban]

Maybe Liz Cheney for No-Labels … she’s an anti-Trump Republican who’s available, and they shouldn’t have issues finding a Democrat to be on the ticket with her: she endorsed Democrats in 2022 when they faced election-denial Republicans, and she was appointed by Pelosi to be on the Jan 6 House investigatory committee. In her new book, Cheney praised Pelosi (and bashed McCarthy). If she says yes, Cheney would work for No Labels

[AltWorlder]

The reposts of my meme will continue until the recommendations appear

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe Liz Cheney for No-Labels … she’s an anti-Trump Republican who’s available, and they shouldn’t have issues finding a Democrat to be on the ticket with her: she endorsed Democrats in 2022 when they faced election-denial Republicans, and she was appointed by Pelosi to be on the Jan 6 House investigatory committee. In her new book, Cheney praised Pelosi (and bashed McCarthy). If she says yes, Cheney would work for No Labels

Don’t you think it’s possible they’ll ultimately pick a no-name?

[AltWorlder]

Maybe Liz Cheney for No-Labels … she’s an anti-Trump Republican who’s available, and they shouldn’t have issues finding a Democrat to be on the ticket with her: she endorsed Democrats in 2022 when they faced election-denial Republicans, and she was appointed by Pelosi to be on the Jan 6 House investigatory committee. In her new book, Cheney praised Pelosi (and bashed McCarthy). If she says yes, Cheney would work for No Labels

I always thought it was weird that Liz Cheney was never mentioned in relation to No Labels, she seems like a no-brainer pick for them. My guess is that she rejected them early on or they just aren't interested in picking her.

Don’t you think it’s possible they’ll ultimately pick a no-name?

I think that's what ultimately what's most likely going to happen, assuming they even run a candidate.

[Cyrusman]

Maybe Liz Cheney for No-Labels … she’s an anti-Trump Republican who’s available, and they shouldn’t have issues finding a Democrat to be on the ticket with her: she endorsed Democrats in 2022 when they faced election-denial Republicans, and she was appointed by Pelosi to be on the Jan 6 House investigatory committee. In her new book, Cheney praised Pelosi (and bashed McCarthy). If she says yes, Cheney would work for No Labels

Zero chance of this. She knows it would benefit Trump.

[Redban]

Maybe Liz Cheney for No-Labels … she’s an anti-Trump Republican who’s available, and they shouldn’t have issues finding a Democrat to be on the ticket with her: she endorsed Democrats in 2022 when they faced election-denial Republicans, and she was appointed by Pelosi to be on the Jan 6 House investigatory committee. In her new book, Cheney praised Pelosi (and bashed McCarthy). If she says yes, Cheney would work for No Labels

Zero chance of this. She knows it would benefit Trump.

I would figure it would hurt Trump, taking votes away from him (ie - the moderate /old school / KarlRove wing of the GOP party)

[Cyrusman]

Maybe Liz Cheney for No-Labels … she’s an anti-Trump Republican who’s available, and they shouldn’t have issues finding a Democrat to be on the ticket with her: she endorsed Democrats in 2022 when they faced election-denial Republicans, and she was appointed by Pelosi to be on the Jan 6 House investigatory committee. In her new book, Cheney praised Pelosi (and bashed McCarthy). If she says yes, Cheney would work for No Labels

Zero chance of this. She knows it would benefit Trump.

I would figure it would hurt Trump, taking votes away from him (ie - the moderate /old school / KarlRove wing of the GOP party)

If this was Nikki Haley, sure, but at this point I think Liz Cheney mainly only appeals to moderate Dems who support her for resisting Trump and a very small fraction of the GOP, such as the Adam Kinzinger's of the world.

[Compuzled_One]

Well, seems No Labels will do it, though I'm not sure who's left for them to nominate.

https://apnews.com/article/no-labels-candidates-selection-third-party-ea3f28a5e35f0789e873ac42369b0a77

I have a sneaking suspicion it's gonna be Nikki Haley. Maybe just a hunch, but with all the money she still has at her disposal, plus the fact that their is a clear sect of voters yearning for someone like her, thinks she may make a run for it.

I think it'll be some no-name.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Any person that No Labels picks will have no future in either major party unless they do really well and then the major parties will want to cannibalize that vote. So for that reason Nikki Haley is probably out, although I think the Trump/DeSantis wing are going to want to ensure she has no future come 2028.

Liz Cheney though I think she knows she has no future left in the GOP.

There are a lot of decent former elected officials in the group. They clearly have some current Congressmen other than Manchin that support their message based on the emails I get.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Possible Commission on Presidential Debates Polling Average:

November 2023: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=425286.msg9298917#msg9298917

Methodology: Assumed 5 pollsters total, as was the case in 2016/20. Looked for any pollster they used in 2016 or 2020 that included at least one third party first. Yielded Fox, NPR, CNN. Selected Quinnipiac and The Messenger/HarrisX as the 2 most reputable pollsters who have conducted a five-way poll in 2024. The most inclusive question was chosen for each pollster. A candidate's exclusion by a company does not count against them. The most recent national poll was used from each company.


Fox Trump 41 Biden 37 Kennedy 14 Stein 3 West 2
NPR Biden 44 Trump 37 Kennedy 16
CNN Trump 41 Biden 35 Kennedy 16 West 4
Quinnipiac Biden 39 Trump 37 Kennedy 14 West 3 Stein 2
The Messenger/HarrisX Trump 45 Biden 36 Kennedy 14 Stein 3 West 2


Trump 40.2 Biden 38.2 Kennedy 14.8 West 2.75 Stein 2.67

Kennedy makes it if they round up. Also lol at West leading Stein.

If I get called by a pollster I'm definitely telling them RFK because I want a three way debate
However I will vote Biden on election day

They'll invent some new metric to ensure RFK Jr. does not get on stage. I can see both Trump and Biden's team privately telling the CPD they will not participate in a debate with RFK Jr.

[Compuzled_One]

Imagine if no labels throws in the towel and backs Kennedy lmao.

[Agonized-Statism]

It's official- Claudia De la Cruz just won the Peace and Freedom primary in California! Granted, I think the primary was non-binding, but it's pretty much hers.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So it's going to be Trump vs Biden vs RFK vs No Labels vs Cornel West vs Jill Stein vs Libertarian candidate

[AltWorlder]

So it's going to be Trump vs Biden vs RFK vs No Labels vs Cornel West vs Jill Stein vs Libertarian candidate

That was the case months go, but so far the West campaign has been flailing and No Labels has no candidates lol

So much for my earlier assessment as 2024 being a powerhouse election for third parties. All of these independent superstars, RFK Jr. included, have been underperforming.

[Redban]

Jenna Ellis is getting on the RFK Jr train

https://twitter.com/JennaEllisEsq/status/1765971325498048573

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Claudia de la Cruz (PSL) wins P&F primary in CA, beating Cornell West 45-40%. That's a major blow to his ballot access efforts.