2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

Per the party's twitter, RFK Jr. met with Reform Party leaders.

https://twitter.com/ReformParty

Outside of real diehard political junkies, I'm guessing most people wouldn't be aware that the Reform Party is still a thing.

[wbrocks67]

RFK Jr's "campaign" is pretty much proving what all of us have been saying. It's not a serious campaign operation.

Like, some of the # of signatures to get on as an Indy are much higher in some states than others, but if you had a serious ground organization, none of them would be out of reach. The fact that he's already too lazy to try to do that and is now trying to jump on anyone - Reform Party now it seems - just again shows this guy is not serious and his campaign should not be taken seriously.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/brittanyagibson/status/1752756994711212197?s=20

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Per the party's twitter, RFK Jr. met with Reform Party leaders.

https://twitter.com/ReformParty

How many states is that? Two from what I’m seeing on Ballotpedia (MS and FL), but that might be outdated.

I know that as late as 2016 there was still some moribund remnant of the Reform Party that was ballot-qualified in New York, but there was some sort of court case over control of the party between people affiliated with the husk of the national party and other individuals. I don't know how it turned out but they definitely don't have ballot access anymore.

[bilaps]

Kennedy raised 7m in last quarter and had 5.4m cash on hand entering the year.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If RFK Jr. isn't on the ballot in Kentucky, I'm gonna poop a hole in my pants.

[Redban]

Trump and RFK Jr are sparring for the first time

https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1752805359276757377

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump and RFK Jr are sparring for the first time

https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1752805359276757377

Wow. RFK Jr is going for the rare "Trump didn't kill enough Americans with his handling of COVID" lane.

[Harlow]

Trump and RFK Jr are sparring for the first time

https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1752805359276757377

Wow. RFK Jr is going for the rare "Trump didn't kill enough Americans with his handling of COVID" lane.

Worked great for Desantis!

[The Mikado]

Few things come to mind right now but I'll just point out one for now:

In the event RFK Jr DOES go for the Libertarians, it's also very possible they deny him the running mate of his choice, which could lead to a hilarious situation where they just saddle him running with some random no name Libertarian activist. Because the Libertarians nominate President and Vice President separately that's always a possibility and it's an extremely fun possibility.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Trump and RFK Jr are sparring for the first time

https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1752805359276757377

Going to Trump's right on covid will certainly draw more otherwise-Republican voters than otherwise-Democratic ones. I'd be glad if he keeps on this line of attack.

Still not sure if Kennedy draws more from Trump in general or if he has any significant effect in the end though. He would be far from the first independent candidate to make a splash in the polls 10 months out only to lose relevancy by election day.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Going to Trump's right on covid will certainly draw more otherwise-Republican voters than otherwise-Democratic ones.

There's a very broad consensus now that the lockdowns, mask mandates, and school closures were a failure.

[Harlow]

Few things come to mind right now but I'll just point out one for now:

In the event RFK Jr DOES go for the Libertarians, it's also very possible they deny him the running mate of his choice, which could lead to a hilarious situation where they just saddle him running with some random no name Libertarian activist. Because the Libertarians nominate President and Vice President separately that's always a possibility and it's an extremely fun possibility.

Rooting for RFK, Jr. and Vermin Supreme, somehow (the VP candidate in 2020 was basically a mini version of Vermin Supreme).

[ralstonfan65]

Going to Trump's right on covid will certainly draw more otherwise-Republican voters than otherwise-Democratic ones.

There's a very broad consensus now that the lockdowns, mask mandates, and school closures were a failure.

Yes, among the loons like you

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yes, among the loons like you

Yes, among the sane people like me.

[quesaisje]

Few things come to mind right now but I'll just point out one for now:

In the event RFK Jr DOES go for the Libertarians, it's also very possible they deny him the running mate of his choice, which could lead to a hilarious situation where they just saddle him running with some random no name Libertarian activist. Because the Libertarians nominate President and Vice President separately that's always a possibility and it's an extremely fun possibility.

They should follow the Bill Weld tradition and force him to run with another fusty ex-governor who has been dragged out of an attic somewhere in New England despite a barely concealed contempt for the Libertarian Party. Jim Douglas was in the headlines recently for suing Middlebury over Cancel Culture, maybe he deserves a shot.

[wbrocks67]

Will RFK even get on the ballot for the Libertarian primary in some states? NC for example already has its Lib ballot set and RFK is not included

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Few things come to mind right now but I'll just point out one for now:

In the event RFK Jr DOES go for the Libertarians, it's also very possible they deny him the running mate of his choice, which could lead to a hilarious situation where they just saddle him running with some random no name Libertarian activist. Because the Libertarians nominate President and Vice President separately that's always a possibility and it's an extremely fun possibility.

They should follow the Bill Weld tradition and force him to run with another fusty ex-governor who has been dragged out of an attic somewhere in New England despite a barely concealed contempt for the Libertarian Party. Jim Douglas was in the headlines recently for suing Middlebury over Cancel Culture, maybe he deserves a shot.

I thought Johnson wanted Weld and had to drag the party kicking and screaming to let him.

[quesaisje]

I thought Johnson wanted Weld and had to drag the party kicking and screaming to let him.

This is correct, but I enjoy imagining it happening again through some quixotic turn of events.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Junior and Trump want to try and spat over who will out-conspiracy who, I welcome them to keep it up throughout the general election.

[The Mikado]

Will RFK even get on the ballot for the Libertarian primary in some states? NC for example already has its Lib ballot set and RFK is not included

Only a handful of states determine delegates for Libertarians through their primary. The Libertarian convention basically resembles the pre-1972 way the other parties do things, with the delegates mostly voting on their own. It makes predicting how their convention goes very difficult but also probably the most fun show in politics for those willing to watch it.

I think RFK Jr has some advantages (his famous name, the fact that he has a built in fanbase, shared dissatisfaction over COVID) but some very serious disadvantages (Libertarian activists are high info cranks and many might have grudges against his father and uncle so his name might cut both ways, his long commitment to environmental laws doesn't play well with free marketeering). If RFK Jr wants the Libertarian nomination his best bet is a lot of one on one cajoling and wooing of the thousand-odd Libertarian delegates and turning the legendary Kennedy charm on them in a one on one setting, which is a viable strategy (imagine deciding you're going to vote for Chase Oliver after a one on one chat with a Kennedy asking you to vote otherwise) but also deeply intricate and obnoxious. It'd be hard work and require finding some obscure info like the contact info of Libertarian delegates.

This is a high-risk high-reward move for RFK Jr. The Libertarian ballot line would singlehandedly give him access in over 40 states (New York State, with its insanely high new thresholds, may be the biggest hurdle but he might be on the ballot everywhere else...and he might even kick the Libs into high enough gear that they get NY too). Downsides, though? He might lose to a literal nobody (does anyone reading this know who Chase Oliver is?) because so many Libertarian activists are deeply ideological cranks who might actively refuse a more prominent national spotlight. He might also get saddled with some rando he's never heard of as a running mate who might disagree with him on his pet issues, which could be extremely awkward.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Will RFK even get on the ballot for the Libertarian primary in some states? NC for example already has its Lib ballot set and RFK is not included

Only a handful of states determine delegates for Libertarians through their primary. The Libertarian convention basically resembles the pre-1972 way the other parties do things, with the delegates mostly voting on their own. It makes predicting how their convention goes very difficult but also probably the most fun show in politics for those willing to watch it.

I think RFK Jr has some advantages (his famous name, the fact that he has a built in fanbase, shared dissatisfaction over COVID) but some very serious disadvantages (Libertarian activists are high info cranks and many might have grudges against his father and uncle so his name might cut both ways, his long commitment to environmental laws doesn't play well with free marketeering). If RFK Jr wants the Libertarian nomination his best bet is a lot of one on one cajoling and wooing of the thousand-odd Libertarian delegates and turning the legendary Kennedy charm on them in a one on one setting, which is a viable strategy (imagine deciding you're going to vote for Chase Oliver after a one on one chat with a Kennedy asking you to vote otherwise) but also deeply intricate and obnoxious. It'd be hard work and require finding some obscure info like the contact info of Libertarian delegates.

This is a high-risk high-reward move for RFK Jr. The Libertarian ballot line would singlehandedly give him access in over 40 states (New York State, with its insanely high new thresholds, may be the biggest hurdle but he might be on the ballot everywhere else...and he might even kick the Libs into high enough gear that they get NY too). Downsides, though? He might lose to a literal nobody (does anyone reading this know who Chase Oliver is?) because so many Libertarian activists are deeply ideological cranks who might actively refuse a more prominent national spotlight. He might also get saddled with some rando he's never heard of as a running mate who might disagree with him on his pet issues, which could be extremely awkward.

The Libertarian Primaries don't award delegates at all. They're just beauty contests. Every delegate is possible for Kennedy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Libertarian_Party_presidential_primaries

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Possible Commission on Presidential Debates Polling Average:

November 2023: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=425286.msg9298917#msg9298917

Methodology: Assumed 5 pollsters total, as was the case in 2016/20. Looked for any pollster they used in 2016 or 2020 that included at least one third party first. Yielded Fox, NPR, CNN. Selected Quinnipiac and The Messenger/HarrisX as the 2 most reputable pollsters who have conducted a five-way poll in 2024. The most inclusive question was chosen for each pollster. A candidate's exclusion by a company does not count against them. The most recent national poll was used from each company.


Fox Trump 41 Biden 37 Kennedy 14 Stein 3 West 2
NPR Biden 44 Trump 37 Kennedy 16
CNN Trump 41 Biden 35 Kennedy 16 West 4
Quinnipiac Biden 39 Trump 37 Kennedy 14 West 3 Stein 2
The Messenger/HarrisX Trump 45 Biden 36 Kennedy 14 Stein 3 West 2


Trump 40.2 Biden 38.2 Kennedy 14.8 West 2.75 Stein 2.67

Kennedy makes it if they round up. Also lol at West leading Stein.

If I get called by a pollster I'm definitely telling them RFK because I want a three way debate
However I will vote Biden on election day

[Octowakandi]

Do we have any speculation at all on who RFK would pick as VP?

I only ask because a lot of states, RFK can't collect ballots until he has a running mate. Also, his website is extremely good on the ballot access section.

https://www.kennedy24.com/ballot-access

[Canis]

Do we have any speculation at all on who RFK would pick as VP?

I only ask because a lot of states, RFK can't collect ballots until he has a running mate. Also, his website is extremely good on the ballot access section.

https://www.kennedy24.com/ballot-access

Probably Tulsi Gabbard, or Jesse Ventura, maybe someone like Dave Smith if he decides to go the libertarian route.