Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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Been thinking about the fact that Russia is holding so much of their army back for no apparent reason.  The only thing that makes sense to me is that logistically they wouldn't be able to handle it.  We've seen reports of their issues in Belarus, and reports of Russian soldiers raiding homes for food and clothing.

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Been thinking about the fact that Russia is holding so much of their army back for no apparent reason.  The only thing that makes sense to me is that logistically they wouldn't be able to handle it.  We've seen reports of their issues in Belarus, and reports of Russian soldiers raiding homes for food and clothing.

See also, this:
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497485623225200640

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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-chechen-leader-says-his-forces-deployed-ukraine-2022-02-26/?taid=621a48a73cade0000100f946&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Chechen deployment now confirmed. God help all Ukrainians, this will be ugly.

Already today there was a report that Ukrainian soldiers had killed a whole bunch of Chechens. Not surprising as Kadyrov’s thugs are more of a glorified police force than an army, so they should be no match for the Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497657772980244483

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Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

I think that ship has sailed.  No way would Ukraine willingly adopt a Russo-phillic policy now.

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If this happens, I can only assume protests will break out again in Belarus. Perhaps this will be the last decision that Minsk makes under current management.


https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

Amazing.  Putin's found soldiers who want to be in Ukraine even less than the Russians.

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Demilitarization is a non-starter.  I could maybe see a deal with recognition of Russian ownership of Crimea and Donbass.  But demilitarization leaves Ukraine completely helpless to the next (inevitable) Russian invasion.

Also, 'Denazification' is code for regime change so safe to say Putin isn't interested in any real negotiation.

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Just want to comment around some of the narrative I've heard in some leftist spaces.  There is no doubt that the U.S. has done terrible things on the world stage.  The invasion of Iraq is particularly inexcusable, considering how much of its justification was built on pure lies.

But lets be clear, the invasion of Ukraine is different from anything the U.S. has done in recent decades not merely in degree, but in kind.  When the U.S. bombs Al-Qaeda affiliates in Somalia, its bad because civilians are often killed in these attacks.  But this is not an attempt by the US to subjugate the local population, expand its territory, or to erase an ethnic heritage.  Even in Iraq, while certainly some of the motivations were exploitative in nature, this was not the intention.

Goals matter, not just on a theoretical moral level, but practically.  Because you have to consider what will happen to the people in question when a great power achieves those goals.  The U.S. being unchallenged in the world and achieving all its strategic goals certainly wouldn't be good for everyone- after all the US has shown it can certainly act with greed, corruption, and paranoia.  But not only would that world be far better than a hypothetical Russia or China controlled one, but the U.S. political system actually allows for U.S. citizens to push it to be better.  Anyone rooting for the U.S. to fail should consider what that would actually mean for the world.  The far, far better course is to hope the U.S. succeeds while pushing for it to be better.

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https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1498638037873577991
We're now seeing active resistance in Belarus.  This isn't a shock, considering the nationwide protests last year.  I have to wonder what Putin is thinking, dragging Belarus into the war.  Because he's definitely taking a risk here.  Its hard to say how significant of a risk it is, but I doubt its worth it unless he thinks he needs Belarus' army.  In which case, lol.

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Seems like we might be getting at least a partial de facto embargo of Russia given all the recent action coming from private enterprise.

Also, Russia decided to launch another airborne operation:

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498835335874334725

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The thing with the invasion of Iraq was the coalition was being methodical and cautious to avoid causalities.  The coalition suffered 11 killed in the battle of Basra, 2 vehicles destroyed (friendly fire), nothing captured.  Very clear contrast to what's going on in Ukraine right now.

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So, how is the war going? Are the Russians going to take Kyiev any time so? Can the Ukrainians actually push them out?

Russia has made zero (or perhaps negative) progress on encircling or taking Kyiv in the past few days.  Rumor has it that another major Russian offensive is in the works, so we'll see how that goes.

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https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/3/9/458213/

Reportedly, a Russian burned down a military recruitment office.  All is not well in Russia...

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Keep in mind we've had visual confirmation of about half of of the Russian equipment losses Ukraine is claiming.  I'm sure they're overestimating for effect, but not *that* much.

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In the event Belarus does invade Ukraine, what does Zelenskyy have up north to counter them?  

Pretty sure Ukraine has enough Javelins alone to easily blow the entire Belarusian military to shreds in like five minutes.

There is a reason Lukashenko has been dragging his feet on actually committing forces. He knows the moment he does it will be an absolute disaster, and in his precarious position in which he came extremely close to being ousted until Putin bailed him out, that could very easily lead to his swift downfall well before Putin meets the same fate.

Hell I’m gonna launch a flaming 🔥 take and say Belarus joining very likely would become a net positive for Ukraine as not only do they have more than enough resources at this point to stop a Belarusian attack but it’s more likely than not that Lukanhesko will be facing a full blown revolt/mutiny on his hands if he does attack and Putin would be forced to send men and resources he can’t afford to spare into Belarus to either prop Lukanhesko up or to make sure whoever replaces him doesn’t kick Russian troops out of the country

Its really hard to say what would happen, but I think dragging Belarus into the war has far more downside than upside for Putin.  It seems incredibly risky, all for the gain of throwing some incredibly low morale troops into the fight.

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More Americans think the United States is responsible (somehow) for Putin invading Ukraine than do Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Brazil.  And South Africa.  So pretty much matching India. 

We're a very self-centered lot.

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Unless Russia is prepared to logistically support hundreds of thousands of more troops, I'm not sure what a full mobilization is supposed to accomplish.  Sending thousands of untrained, unsupported conscripts into the teeth of battle hardened Ukrainians will just make the operation an even bigger mess.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1524055423279583232

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

I don’t see what they would gain by sending troops into Russian territory while so much of their country is still Russian-occupied, but they should definitely use artillery and drones to (continue to?) strike at strategic targets within Russian territory.

Occupying a Russian town or two for a morale/propaganda boost.

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Definitely the biggest development in the war since Russia pulled out of the north.  The spectrum of possible outcomes is huge right now, we just have to see where the chips land.

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Ukraine had a plan and they executed it.  Telegraph an attack in Kherson, draw Russian units in, pin them down and trap them there.  Exploit the weakened lines elsewhere and break through in a surprise attack.

The fact that Ukraine has been successfully pulling off 2 offensives simultaneously is absolutely to their credit.  The army is incredibly competent- experienced, well equipped and supplied, motivated, and well led.  The fact that Russia was duped by their ploy, didn't consider that Ukraine's loud noises about a limited offensive in Kherson could be hiding something else, and didn't put sufficient reserves elsewhere in the front is a complete, embarrassing failure.

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Russia could resort to WMDs, but I think chemical weapons would be their next move.  Actually using nukes would be utter madness.  If Putin tries it, he is not sane (possible).  Not only would it force countries like India to ostracize them and risk NATO directly intervening (thus risking a nuclear war and the end of civilization), it'd also present an internal risk to Putin's regime.  Chemical weapons would still generate backlash, but they aren't unprecedented in modern warfare (see Syria).

I have doubts as to whether Russia is capable of taking advantage of full mobilization.  Its not just a question of the morale of these troops, is Russia really capable of equipping and supplying them?  They've had enough logistical problems with their main army.  I could see them making some initial gains, but once they're out from the railroads I think they bog down and get chewed up just like the initial invasion.

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Yes, this is good.  Putin won't bat an eye at sending others to their deaths, but there's a better chance he was some sense of self-preservation.  A guarantee that he, personally, will die if he tries to order a nuclear strike might be more compelling for him than a promise of a declaration of war.  Laying out the consequences very clearly ahead of time is a good idea.  The goal, after all, is to deter Putin from using WMDs, not baiting him into it.

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Feeling increasingly like the mobilization was ordered because it was the only way to stop the front line from completely collapsing.

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https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576655785912074241
Not a great sign lmao.

And if its true that all of Russia's most elite troops are on the Kherson front, than leaving them in such a precarious position would be a massive blunder.  Leaving your best troops under-supplied and exposed to attrition is terrible for the long term outlook of the army.

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Yeah, the fact is that the territories in question have already voted on this and it wasn't remotely close everywhere outside Crimea. Even the Crimean districts  voted for independence by a 12 and 18% margin, so it's not like the result was razor thin.

Furthermore, there was no politically relevant internal movement for independence.  Unlike, say, Northern Ireland, the Russian speaking regions of Ukraine were fully committed to participation in Ukraine's electoral system, and not as a vehicle for independence.

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