Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[bagelman]

was bored

Stapleton (R) vs. Polis (D)

DeWine (R) vs. Cordray (D)

Kelly (D) vs Kobach (R)

Gillum (D) vs DeSantis (R)

Abbot (R) vs Valdez (D)

[bagelman]

✓Republican 277

Democrat 250

11 undecided

Closest states:

Wisconsin R+397 votes (R+0.02), recount would likely occur, but election is decided if PA holds.

New Hampshire D+0.25, 1292 votes.

Pennsylvania R+0.37, 16334 votes, deciding state.

Oregon R+0.71, 9732 votes.

National popular vote: D+0.12, 115968 votes. 21.2% of OTL 2000's NPV raw vote margin, 4% of OTL 2016.

[bagelman]

Universal VBM

R's still win NE-03 and WY.

[bagelman]

2024: Vice President Kamala Harris is crushed.

[bagelman]

SD-GOV 2018 as national election

[bagelman]

2024: Vice President Kamala Harris is crushed.

What do you mean, "crushed?" She was 75,000 votes shy of winning TX, and 3,500 votes short in NH. Those would have won the election for her.

You have a point, but she still, by a smallish but notable margin, lost the popular vote for the Democrats for the first time in 20 years.

[bagelman]

Hilarious Democratic Dummymander, created by reddit user Coretteket.

[bagelman]

Coca-Cola - 306 EVs

Ariana Grande - 232 EVs

From Google Trends. So whacky how similar this looks to election maps. Idaho was surprisingly close (Grande 48 - Cola 52). I feel like Georgia was such a blowout win for Sen. Cola due to Ariana being beat the  out in Atlanta. Thank u, next!

EDIT: Added insurgent 3rd party candidate Dua Lipa. She did not change the EV results.

EDIT: Actually Coca-Cola won DC, so it would be 229 EVs to 309 EVs.

As long as you keep DC Dem and ignore some of the out there margins, it's a semi-realistic map for 2024. NM voting R (especially while AZ votes D again) and VA voting R are surprises, but stranger things have happened. The Republican is a polite big business Romney sort of nominee who is nonetheless able to hold on to most Trumpists, perhaps a Georgia Senator. Maybe David Perdue if he's willing to go down that route, or whoever replaces Loeffler in the primaries this year. The Democrat is a weak candidate, like Krystan Sinema (R-AZ) or some moderate and hopelessly dull Florida Democrat.

[bagelman]

F you Donny Boy

Alternate Title: My wildest dreams



452-86

[bagelman]

Some maps inspired by dreams on AAD.



Clinton falls to a particularly nasty scandal in 2016, somehow loses MD.



Pendulum swings the other way in 2020. Al Gore and Joe Biden, a pair of former veeps, run together against Trump. Hurting Trump was an ineffective ad campaign intended to demoralize progressive Democrats by portraying Gore as a conservadem, instead it helped Gore with WCW moderates and netted him Ohio.

What an Iowa Caucus situation might look like for the 2020 GE. GA is the only state actually reporting enough votes, and it's a dead heat. All the other states are based on assumptions.



What 2020 might look like if Larry Hogan replaces Donald Trump. Hogan is a successful sacrificial lamb, he prevents a landslide and defends the Senate, but still loses.

[bagelman]

snip

How does UT turns blue

McMuffin.

President Infinity occasionally has oddball results.

[bagelman]

A Democrat from Wallace County Kansas decides s/he wants to be in congress. They cast a magical wish and it is granted....



KS-1: Clinton 52-40, white-hispanic-black 60-21-15

KS-2: Trump 52-39, white-hispanic-black 84-6-5

KS-3: Trump 65-27, white-hispanic-black 82-9-4

KS-4: Trump 66-26, white-hispanic-black 86-7-4

[bagelman]

1992 with 1968's popular vote:

the rare presidential election where New Jersey decides the race!

Not even close, NJ was Clinton's 332nd EV.

[bagelman]

This is actually a scenario I made about 5 years ago, before Trump even won the primaries.

2016



Senator Bernard Sanders / Senator Amy Klobuchar 279 EV

Buinessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Senator John Cornyn (R-TX)^ (appeared as Make America Great Again in Utah) 253 EV

Fmr. Governor John Huntsman Jr. (IR-UT) / Fmr. Governor Bobby Jindal (IR-LA) (appeared as Republican in Utah) 9 EV

The Stop Trump campaign, supported by Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, won the state of Utah. Donald Trump's relentless attacks against them led him to be portrayed as an angry old man, allowing the other angry old man to win the race. Both tickets also had issues with running mates from the party establishment being forced upon them at the party convention. The POD is a scandal tarnishing Hillary Clinton among Democrats in fall 2015, allowing Bernie Sanders to narrowly win. Donald Trump has a much harder time winning and the Republican primaries are decided in Cleveland - Ted Cruz never really supports him.

^{^interchangeable with any other mainstream Republican}

2020



Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 335 EV

President Bernard Sanders (D-VT) / Vice President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 203 EV

Bernie Sanders was unable to pass much of his agenda through the GOP controlled congress, who viewed him as just as bad as Obama at best. The public disagreements with his own Vice President didn't help either. The Republican party poured massive amounts of money into establishment candidates, but the GOP electorate was convinced that Trump had the '16 election stolen from him by the establishment Republicans who allowed a blatant socialist to win. Trump was able to portray himself as calmer and less belligerent than he was before, improving his reputation among both minorities and GOP establishment voters who supported Huntsman (mostly the latter), and entered office promising to Make America Great Again.

In 2023, Trump made a frightening comment regarding nuclear arms. His other recently odd mannerisms, more so than usual for the eccentric Trump, lead him to being declared incapacitated by his cabinet and diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease. While Trump initially protested this decision he would later forget that he was president at all and passed away the next year. After their miserable results in the 2022 midterms, the GOP was convinced they were doomed. President Rubio didn't believe this, and after some deliberation ran for a full term. He was defeated.

2024



Former Vice President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) / Congresswoman Val Demings (D-FL)^ aprox. 292 EV

President Marco Rubio (R-FL) Fmr. Gov. Doug Ducey (R-AZ) aprox. 246 EV.

In some ways, the 2024 election was a return to the mean. Rubio's hispanic status helped defend Florida and Texas, there are a decent number of Sanders '20/Rubio '24 voters in both states. The closest states in this election were Iowa and Arizona for Klob and Ohio for Rubio.

^{^interchangeable with any other black female Democratic national politician.}

2028



Congressman Ted Betts (R-ID) / Governor Rand Paul (R-KY) aprox 326 EV

President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) / Vice President Val Demings (D-FL)^ aprox 212 EV

The Klobuchar presidency was a time of bloat. Bloated government and bloated corporations. The libertarian wing of the GOP, which had been quietly gaining strength from the new generation, seized the moment and nominated obscure Idaho congressman Ted Betts. Hailing from the northern part of the state, Betts opposed the aggressive curbing of immigration that President Trump, supported the legalization of soft drugs, strongly supported individual right-to-privacy, supported criminal justice reform, and was a good debater. Betts was able to position himself as the champion of small businesses, fighting against "cronies that make the common man foot the bill for them". Promising lower taxes, smaller government, decreased foreign aid, and an end to legislated morality from both the right and left, Betts won a noncontroversial majority in 2028. He even won the President's home state, although it was the closest state nationwide. President Klobuchar became the third incumbent President in a row to be defeated.

2032


President Ted Betts (R-ID) / Vice President Rand Paul (R-KY) won

Governor Juan Hernandez (D-NM) / Senator Kathleen Gates (D-VA)

Juan Hernandez was socially conservative by the standard of the Democratic party. He ran on the issues of needed government action in regards to climate change and tried his best to paint the President as a racist. President Betts touted the strong economy and the role of private enterprise in fighting climate change as part of his victory. Hernandez became the first Democrat to win Mississippi and lose Minnesota in the same election since Adlai Stevenson.

2036


Sandy Bellman (D-CA) / Mike Morsel (D-PA) won

Craig Romney (R-UT) / George P. Bush (R-TX)

President Betts's second term did not go as smoothly as his first. His opposition to government environmental legislation was small comfort to hurricane victims in Florida, he opposed even basic gun control efforts, he was uncompromising and more boisterous, and he often openly opposed Republicans from the "other side" of the party just as much as he did democrats. But his biggest downfall came when members of congress, the media, and the general public began to question his many unnecessary "investigations" of old 9/11 related documents, individuals (deceased and living), and government organizations (active and defunct, including and especially the NSA which he had devoted a serious amount of political capital to abolishing). It was later leaked by an aide that President Betts personally believed that 9/11 was a false flag attack by the George W. Bush administration. President Betts never denied this claim, a claim that would be devastating to his party, his popular support, and even his family.

The Republicans themselves had recovered enough to prevent a true landslide against the first LGBT president. Bellman represented a return to social liberalism for the Democrats following Hernandez. Despite being socially liberal even by Democratic standards, she was supported by many southerners worried about global warming, now very plainly visible to the nation and the world (well, even more so).

The "Traditional" wing of the Republican party won out against the pro-Betts Libertarian wing following the scandalous revelation that the sitting president believed in a 9/11 conspiracy theory. It is an unspoken truth that President Betts did not support Romney, even against Bellman.

[bagelman]

OK is quite a shocker

[bagelman]

Blue wins out even without the gray states, just barely. 276-237 (25). HI/NJ/ID deciding block.

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

Where does Pete's EV come from?

[bagelman]

2004



John Kerry defeats President Dubya 284-254 to become the 44th president. This election was very close and opposition to the electoral college now exists on both sides.

2008




John McCain defeats President Kerry in the "Battle of the Johns" 312-226. President Kerry becomes the second President in a row to be defeated for reelection. McCain becomes the 45th President.

John McCain's record as President is debated often, generally leaning positive, but his greatest failure was in leading the Republican Party. The more conservative faction of the party rebelled against him, preferring orthodox conservatism over pragmatism. The 2010 midterms saw many GOP congressional primary challengers from the right and far right, many successful, and many of those leading to Democratic victories in conservative seats.

The GOP heading into 2012 and the 2010s in general looked to be badly divided between the establishment around the President and the often unhinged populist outsiders. The GOP hoped that McCain stepping down due to age from running for a second term would allow the nomination of a more conservative candidate in the mold of Bush Jr., who would heal these wounds. 43 himself refused to run again, and the primaries became bogged down with grifters pandering to lunatics fighting against candidates seen as even more moderate than McCain. Eventually the party made it's worst mistake in nominating a conservative sounding compromise candidate, who revealed himself to be among the least charismatic politicians to run for the Presidency. Not worthy of even being named, he is remembered for making ANZAC a talking point, being falsely accused of having his mic off during one of the debates, and generally being both boring and clueless.

The Democrats nominated former VP and 2000 presidential candidate Al Gore. You could claim that he isn't a superstar style candidate either, but he gave the Democrats this result:

2012



385-153

[bagelman]

Obama2012 with no hispanic vote whatsoever. he wins 298-240.

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

What was considered to be a competitive election turned into a sleeper for President Collins. Elected as a moderate, Collins governed somewhat as a typical Republican. The Democrats heavily exploited this. However, when Collins nominated a moderate slight conservative rather than a strong conservative to the Supreme Court to replace a liberal, that was enough for moderates nationwide. The Democratic candidate was Sen. Sara Gideon, a very generic Democratic candidate.  

[bagelman]

Most expected Sen. Cal Cunningham to easily waltz to a win against unpopular southern fried incumbent President Thom Tillis. However an October surprise showed Cunningham sexting like a sorry little frat boy while running for President. Cunningham is slightly favored to win what's out, but if he loses anything like his surprise loss in WI he will have blown it for blow!

[bagelman]

2024 like 1912, or what will happen if Joe Biden is another Bill Clinton style Liberal Republican.

[bagelman]

2016: The Political Revolution



Senator Bernard Sanders (D-VT) / Congresswoman Donna Edwards (D-MD) 303

Senator Joe Machin (R-WV) / Former Governor Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) 235

With a strong candidate that had the party in lockstep, it was never really in doubt that Sanders came out on top. Manchin exceeded pundit expectations, taking North Carolina thanks to overpreforming in Appalachia, easily winning FL and coming very close in OH. But it wasn't enough.

2020: The Political Revolution continued



President Bernard Sanders (D-VT) / Vice President Donna Edwards (D-MD) 328

Governor Andrew Cuomo (R-NY) / Senator Ben McAdams (R-UT) 210

The 2020 election was a hard fought affair. Republican Governor Andrew Cuomo was one of the best challengers to Sanders the GOP hoped for. His VP selection wasn't an easy choice, with Pete Buttigieg seen as a top choice, but Cuomo chose to shore up his conservative base instead. McAdams became the second Mormon to be placed on a Presidential Ticket.

Republicans were confident about this election, especially in light of the COVID pandemic. Republicans claimed more technocratic and less "anti-business" policies would help stop the pandemic. Cuomo touted a national mask mandate. Former President Barack Obama was officially neutral but essentially opposed his own party in this election.

In the end however it was a big disappointment for the GOP. All that money to lose electoral votes, gaining only Ohio due to the popularity of their Republican governor and his endorsement of Cuomo. Many here on Atlas believe that if the GOP had attacked Sanders from the other direction regarding masks and lockdowns, they might have had a better chance. A scary thought.

2024: Battle of the Buckeyes



Senator Tim Ryan (R-OH) / Senator Kyrsten Sinema (R-AZ) Won

Congresswoman Nina Turner (D-OH) / Congresswoman Illhan Omar (D-MN) Lost

A pair of congresswomen lose to a pair of Senators. Donna Edwards had been defeated in the primaries by Turner, who ran a more culturally left wing campaign in their bid to continue the political revolution. Instead the Republicans came back. Ryan was skilled in winning the votes of traditional Democrats, while the actual Democratic ticket talked more about their own representation of women of color (not a bad thing) rather than trying to win votes (more important).

Pete Buttigieg (R-IN), the runner up in the GOP primaries, remains a rising star in the party and has been guaranteed a prominent spot in the Ryan administration. On the other side, New York Senator Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains the leader of the Democrats in Congress and is already the frontrunner for the 2028 nomination. Whether she enters the race in 4 years remains to be seen.