1996 if all Perot voters went to Dole

[bagelman]

✓Republican 277

Democrat 250

11 undecided

Closest states:

Wisconsin R+397 votes (R+0.02), recount would likely occur, but election is decided if PA holds.

New Hampshire D+0.25, 1292 votes.

Pennsylvania R+0.37, 16334 votes, deciding state.

Oregon R+0.71, 9732 votes.

National popular vote: D+0.12, 115968 votes. 21.2% of OTL 2000's NPV raw vote margin, 4% of OTL 2016.

[Sir Mohamed]

I've just posted this days earlier

Even though it's unlikely that would have happened in a head-to-head race, it's a very intersting scenario. I just went through it by checking all Clinton <50% states and add Dole and Perot. Key takeaways:

- NH, NM and WA are the states Clinton received less than 50%, but still more than Dole and Perot combined (very close in NH).

- Meanwhile, OR (margin 0.71%), PA (by 0.36%) and WI (by 0.02%! or 397 votes) would be extremely close into Dole's column.

- Clinton wins the NPV by about 0.1% or 118,422 votes but loses the EC 250-288.


Here is the map and end result:

✓ Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Former HUD Secretary Jack Kemp (R-NY): 288 EVs.; 49.1%
President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Al Gore (D-TN): 250 EVs.; 49.2%

[538Electoral]

Dole gets 288 electoral votes.