🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Flyersfan232]

With the 2021 Presidential elections over, let's take it off from the title.

The next elections, the local elections, are due for September/October. There will be 308 mayors, 2,000 or so councillors, more than 6,400 municipal assembly members, more than 3,080 parish Presidents and more than 25,000 parish assembly members to be elected.

Also, the future of Costa's 2nd term, Rui Rio's leadership in the PSD and also the future of the PCP will be at stake.

any new general elections polls out?

[Flyersfan232]

I hope for their own sake that CDS manage to sack Chicão but at the same time they don't make it easy at all to root for their survival

Yes, "Chicão" is very incompetent and everything he does and says seems amateur and weird. Just look at his derange speech in the party's council: (in his speech he says he's calm and serene... yeah.. sure)
https://twitter.com/naguiar/status/1358111718908563457

However, I don't know if Adolfo Mesquita Nunes can revive the CDS, as the party is currently, well, useless. The CDS was always that party on the right that congregated all the people who believe the PSD was too centrist: the Liberals and the Conservatives. After the arrival of IL and CHEGA, CDS had nothing to offer these voters and even some of the moderates are now going to the PSD. Plus, if Mesquita Nunes is successful in winning the leadership, what will he do? Follow the strategy of Assunção Cristas, where Mesquita Nunes was her deputy, that gave the lowest share ever for CDS? Or goes with a Liberal strategy? Frankly, I don't know. We'll see.

I don't have much to add, except that it's very disappointing (yet very predictable) that the new government is doing exactly what the old one was accused of. Azores will be Azores I guess.

Also very predictable to see Ventura doing clownery for attention but that's not even worth mentioning at this point. In any case, now that the government has fulfilled its primary purpose of ending 24 years of PS rule I am not too invested in its continuation.

Like I said to Battista, it's a cultural thing Crals. It's not just in the Azores. But, the finger pointing between PS and PSD on this matter, reminds me of that spiderman meme with the two pointing to each other.

dissolve?

[Flyersfan232]

Controversy in Lisbon regarding the renovation of the Imperial Square gardens: Former President Ramalho Eanes trashes the plans of Lisbon city hall as says that without an Empire, Portugal would be a "Catalonia".

Hilarious comment, if not snarkily vicious considering that there are elections in Catalonia just today and I am sure Ramalho Eanes is well aware of that.

Maybe he was aware of it, but I believe his point is that Portugal would be weak and would ultimately be a part of Spain without an Empire. I have my doubts about that, but it's a valid point nonetheless. On a side note, it would be interesting to see how the Portuguese electorate sees the Catalonia Independent movement. There's no polling about it, and there seems to be no interest at all about it also.

Yeah that would be interesting. I have no idea what kind of support it would get except for the fact that CHEGA voters are likely all against it (side note: does CHEGA have any sort of close relationship with VOX?)

i see chega leader likeing some of vox social media pages. and chega leader did campagin with meloni of brother of italy who party is apart of the ecr with vox.

[Flyersfan232]

i see chega leader likeing some of vox social media pages. and chega leader did campagin with meloni of brother of italy who party is apart of the ecr with vox.

CHEGA and Vox may have some links, on social media, but overall, there seems to be not a big proximity between both, as one would think because Portugal and Spain are like "sister" countries. Ventura never campaign with Meloni, from what I'm aware. He did campaign with Le Pen, which he is very close, and was to campaign with Salvini but that was canceled due to the Italian political crisis. Ventura is also close to Salvini. Also, CHEGA is member of ID not ECR, which makes him closer to Le Pen/Salvini, rather than Meloni/Abascal.

i swear i saw a photo of ventura and meloni some where and isnt vox only in the ecr because of lega having tieds to regionals parties?

[Flyersfan232]

i see chega leader likeing some of vox social media pages. and chega leader did campagin with meloni of brother of italy who party is apart of the ecr with vox.

CHEGA and Vox may have some links, on social media, but overall, there seems to be not a big proximity between both, as one would think because Portugal and Spain are like "sister" countries. Ventura never campaign with Meloni, from what I'm aware. He did campaign with Le Pen, which he is very close, and was to campaign with Salvini but that was canceled due to the Italian political crisis. Ventura is also close to Salvini. Also, CHEGA is member of ID not ECR, which makes him closer to Le Pen/Salvini, rather than Meloni/Abascal.

i swear i saw a photo of ventura and meloni some where and isnt vox only in the ecr because of lega having tieds to regionals parties?

I'm not aware of any photo of them, to be honest. Yes, Abascal and Salvini have feud, it seems, because of  Salvini's ties with pro-independence movements, and the Catalonia issue is a big divide between both men and parties.

it seem just to be something keeping them being apart of the same group but not for respecting one another https://www.eutimes.net/2019/09/populist-vox-leader-salvini-was-ousted-from-government-by-eu-plot/

[Flyersfan232]

2021 Local elections: Update on the state of the races and candidacies.

Lisbon: PSD/CDS has yet to announce a candidate but it seems that, currently, the most likely candidate is Ricardo Batista Leite. Internal polling suggests that Carlos Moedas is the best name to face the PS, but it seems that Mr Moedas is unavailable to run. The name will probably be revealed during March. PS will ran incumbent mayor Fernando Medina for a 2nd full term.

Porto: Rui Moreira is the overwhelming favourite and PS/PSD are having problems in finding candidates. PSD seems to be considering Rio's deputy when he was mayor and the President of Paranhos parish, the only PSD parish in Porto city. The PS has several names, including the party's spokesperson José Luís Carneiro, Manuel Pizarro, the party's candidate in 2013 and 2017, and Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro.

Coimbra: In the "university city", the PS is fearing a PSD/CDS+Independent alliance that could unseat incumbent PS mayor Manuel Machado. However, this alliance is dividing the local PSD party after the national leadership rejected the candidate approved by the local party. Negotiations between PSD and the Independent movement "We are Coimbra", which achieved 16% in 2017, are still ongoing.

Évora: The incumbent CDU mayor is allowed to run for a 3rd term, but the colapse of CDU in recent elections could make this city a very vulnerable one for CDU and a very strong target for the PS. A new independent movement was announced that will run which could shake things up in the capital of the Alentejo. In a funny note, the PSD candidate for Évora is called Henrique Sim-Sim (Henry Yes-Yes). xD

Setúbal: In this city, the incumbent CDU mayor is barred from running again, making this city another target for the PS. The Socialists are expected to run Ana Catarina Mendes, Costa's deputy in the PS. PSD is expected to run Fernando Negrão as candidate, a re-run of his candidacy in 2005 when he polled 25%, one of the best results of the PSD in the city, but it's very unlikely he will repeat the same share.

Sintra: Incumbent PS mayor, Basílio Horta, is expected to run for a 3rd term, but the PSD/CDS is having problems in finding a candidate. Rumours have come and gone that Santana Lopes would be the candidate, but the most likely scenario is the repetition of Marco Almeida's 2017 PSD run.

Almada: One of the shock results of 2017, when PS stole it from CDU, the Communist-Green alliance is running the still mayor of Setúbal, Maria das Dores Meira, as a candidate to face incumbent mayor, Inês de Medeiros. The race is expected to be very close.

Funchal: Another too close to call race. Polls are suggesting a very close race, but the certain PSD/CDS coalition has yet to announce the name that will face the incumbent PS mayor, Miguel Gouveia. The most talked about name is the Vice President of the Madeira government, Pedro Calado, and this race could have an impact in the stability of the current PSD/CDS coalition governing the Madeira region.

Will update more info about other cities when available.

Was expanding the regionals assemblies to other regions every considered???

[Flyersfan232]

Was expanding the regionals assemblies to other regions every considered???

Yes, regionalisation has been debated for decades now and was even subject to a referendum in 1998 that failed 64% to 36%. The map proposed in that referendum was completely ridiculous, creating 8 new regions. The current format proposed 5 new regions: North, Center, Lisbon, Alentejo and Algarve. However, like I said above, it's still being debated with polls suggesting a slight advantage for the yes but nothing definitive. Personally, I don't support the creation of 5 new regions with all the structure that weighs. If Portugal already has issues in financing one Parliament, 2 autonomous regions and 308 municipalities, how would 5 new regions work? That's the debate.

so its unlikely to happen?

[Flyersfan232]

2021 local elections: Since 1976, 31 municipalities have never changed hands. They are:

https://twitter.com/LiberdadeMais/status/1412139464038797316

There are 31 municipalities (10% of the total) that since 1976 (or since its creation later) have never changed their political color. Of these (mostly small municipalities), three stand out with more than 100,000 inhabitants: Odivelas (PS), Santa Maria da Feira (PSD) and Seixal (CDU).

* Odivelas was created in 1998, so it's a relatively new municipality. Therefore, Seixal is the biggest that hasn't change political party since 1976.

Could any of that change this year?

[Flyersfan232]

is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

[Flyersfan232]

is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

They support the idea of a monarchy but they don't have any commitment in restoring the monarch because the Constitution basically forbids any change of the form of government. Now, PPM is also a party aligned with agrarianism, the environment and a strong supporter for more autonomy to local governments. Since 1979, they have aligned themselves with PSD and/or CDS and have forged a series of coalitions on the national and local level which helps them elect several municipal members across the country. Currently they are in power in the Azores, in a coalition with PSD/CDS, and one of their MPs in the popular member from the tiny island of Corvo.

There are monarchists in all parties, left to right. There are BE members who join monarchist causes, there are PCP events in which the legitimate heir of the Portuguese throne, D. Duarte Pio, is invited to speak, there are some PS members who would support a referendum on the monarchy and PSD/CDS have a lot of members affiliated with the monarchist cause. However, this groups are relatively small and have little impact as the "return of the monarchy" isn't really an issue and basically no one cares about.

Regarding the overall support for a possible, but impossible, return of the monarch, there are few polls but two polls in 2010 had different questions: a Marktest poll showed that 37% think Portugal would be worse with the Monarchy, while almost 34% saying it would be the same or better; an UCP-CESOP poll, also from 2010, had support for the monarchy at just 11%.

communist monarchists?

[Flyersfan232]

Wait this was today?

[Flyersfan232]

So what do this mean for costa

[Flyersfan232]

Ventura was with the leader of Cox and meloni recently possibility on chega joining the ecr?

[Flyersfan232]

Looking at the results so far, a PS majority may not be that impossible. With the results so far, I'm saying the PS could end up at around 41% and the PSD at 28%.

how often are exit polls wrong or right?

[Flyersfan232]

Huh, the exit polls are pretty good for Costa. And the early returns are even better. It really seems that his repeated claims that it was only a choice between him and Rio have been pretty successful in polarizing the electorate and doing so in the PS's favour. CHEGA may well be the only minor party to cross 5% which is pretty stunning.

Now I mostly wonder if Costa will get his absolute majority he was asking so loud for.

could he be ps choice for there retirement job of president?

[Flyersfan232]

It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.

how is cds doing?

[Flyersfan232]

34 seats left…

PS 105 (+11)
PSD 69 (-1)
CHEGA 10 (+10)
I.LIBERAL 5 (+5)
PCP-PEV 4 (-5)
BE 3 (-13)

Any chance peg breaks from the commies

[Flyersfan232]

Back from dinner and kitchen stuff.

Well, I live in a bubble, literally: My hometown, Póvoa de Varzim

42.5% PSD
32.2% PS
  6.7% CHEGA
  5.0% IL
  3.6% BE
  2.4% CDS
  2.2% CDU
  1.3% PAN
  1.1% Livre

Seem inline with the national results is it a bell weather

[Flyersfan232]

Remarkable to see PS carrying Leiria and Bragança, among other PSD strongholds.

Also, is CDS going to survive? If Rio steps down and PSD moves to the right, there's basically nothing left for them in terms of an ideological niche. They could either merge with PSD or CHEGA. The former seems more likely to me. Unless they do some weird merger with minor parties like PPM+PURP+Aliança but that wouldn't do much...

What’s the monarchist scene in true assembly like after tonight

[Flyersfan232]

Oh my God, this actually happened:

Someone put a crown of flowers in front of CDS heartquarters in their memory:
https://twitter.com/joaogoliveira/status/1487932284447694856

Some CDS party members didn't like the "joke".

So what happen to there Mep do he jump to psd

[Flyersfan232]

So PS L Chega  and the liberals are the winners tonight.

[Flyersfan232]

How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.

Reserve shy Tory

[Flyersfan232]

So wat do this mean fro the regionals governments thing that some in pa been wanting for a while

[Flyersfan232]

is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

They support the idea of a monarchy but they don't have any commitment in restoring the monarch because the Constitution basically forbids any change of the form of government. Now, PPM is also a party aligned with agrarianism, the environment and a strong supporter for more autonomy to local governments. Since 1979, they have aligned themselves with PSD and/or CDS and have forged a series of coalitions on the national and local level which helps them elect several municipal members across the country. Currently they are in power in the Azores, in a coalition with PSD/CDS, and one of their MPs in the popular member from the tiny island of Corvo.

There are monarchists in all parties, left to right. There are BE members who join monarchist causes, there are PCP events in which the legitimate heir of the Portuguese throne, D. Duarte Pio, is invited to speak, there are some PS members who would support a referendum on the monarchy and PSD/CDS have a lot of members affiliated with the monarchist cause. However, this groups are relatively small and have little impact as the "return of the monarchy" isn't really an issue and basically no one cares about.

Regarding the overall support for a possible, but impossible, return of the monarch, there are few polls but two polls in 2010 had different questions: a Marktest poll showed that 37% think Portugal would be worse with the Monarchy, while almost 34% saying it would be the same or better; an UCP-CESOP poll, also from 2010, had support for the monarchy at just 11%.

was looking up cause bored but why did true pcp invited the would be king to a event?

[Flyersfan232]

Anyone able to do a left vs. right?  Be interested if a rural/urban divide as seems in German, Norwegian, and Portuguese elections parties on left won in many rural areas whereas in English speaking world, left is overwhelmingly in urban areas and also tends to win by much bigger margins than in those three while rural go for parties on right.  Is reason divide isn't yet as noticeable in rest of Europe.  Germany you saw it somewhat and it does seem some parties on left like German Greens, Red Party in Norway were very urban but others like Labour in Norway and SPD in Germany less so and appears PS has similar support in rural vs. urban.

Here it is:

Left - Red; Right - Blue



The Right did well, as usual, in rural North and Center of the country, while the left dominated, as usual again, in the South. Some urban areas like Cascais, Aveiro, voted rightwing, but in Lisbon and Porto cities, the margins between right and left were quite close: Lisbon - 51% Left; 46% Right. Porto - 50% Left; 48% Right.

Overall, the left-right tally was the following:

2,874,591 Left (53.3%, 130 seats)
2,318,294 Right (43.0%, 96 seats)

The Left drooped 3.8% compared with 2019 and lost 12 seats. The Right grew 8.3% and won 12 seats, compared with 2 years ago.

who got the ten percent