Washington state megathread

[bgwah]

I tried re-districting Washington with a 10th seat while being as realistic as possible. This is what I came up with:

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Looks reasonable for a 7D-3R delegation under this map.  WA-3 turns slightly Republican and WA-8 strongly Democrat - it should be enough to flip parties for these two seats under this map.  WA-8 becomes at least 60% Obama.  Maybe something like this will finally convince Reichert to pack it in.

[bgwah]

Looks reasonable for a 7D-3R delegation under this map.  WA-3 turns slightly Republican and WA-8 strongly Democrat - it should be enough to flip parties for these two seats under this map.  WA-8 becomes at least 60% Obama.  Maybe something like this will finally convince Reichert to pack it in.

I agree that it makes WA-8 more Dem, but the Democrats clearly refuse to run a real candidate in WA-8 for some unknown reason and Reichert is getting established, so he could still hold on for a while.

If the Democrats could pull off a miracle and win WA-3 in 2010, then they could probably hold onto the seat. If Baird stuck around he could easily win that version of WA-3. But it definitely shifts WA-3 from swing to Lean R.

WA-10 would definitely be Lean D. Not hopeless for the Republicans, but who would they run? They don't have a lot of elected officials in that part of the state.

WA-2 loses Everett and would get a bit more Republican. Maybe shifting the district from Lean D to swing. Larsen would have no trouble winning there but the Democrats would need to be careful if the seat was open. Still, as 2008 Governor and R-71 show, Island and Skagit counties have taken some serious turns to the left in the last few years, and the Republicans would still have to overcome Bellingham.

[CultureKing]

Debolt will not be running to replace Baird. Meanwhile Heck will announce this week if he intends to run or not. Personally I am about 90% sure that he will, you don't loan yourself $100,000 just to explore the waters.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Debolt will not be running to replace Baird. Meanwhile Heck will announce this week if he intends to run or not. Personally I am about 90% sure that he will, you don't loan yourself $100,000 just to explore the waters.

The folks over at SSP branded DeBolt a "rather nasty piece of work".  Nice.

[Meeker]

Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

[Alcon]

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

Boring issues page, but nothing crazy religious.  Looks a hell of a lot like McGavick Pt. 2.

Is this the businessman from Preston, or the motivational speaker?  Or are they the same guy?

[Meeker]

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

Boring issues page, but nothing crazy religious.  Looks a hell of a lot like McGavick Pt. 2.

Is this the businessman from Preston, or the motivational speaker?  Or are they the same guy?

Same dude. Some former NFL player is also apparently thinking about running though (Clint Didier I think is his name). And there's also the usual few assorted crazies milling around. I don't think Brad Klippert will be running this time though as he somehow managed to get elected to the State House in 2008...

[Meeker]

NFL player declared. Says he has a "Game Plan for Washington". Shoot me now.

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100104/BLOG13/100109956/-1/RSS24

http://www.clintdidier.org/

[RI]

NFL player declared. Says he has a "Game Plan for Washington". Shoot me now.

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100104/BLOG13/100109956/-1/RSS24

http://www.clintdidier.org/

*gags*

[bgwah]

NFL player declared. Says he has a "Game Plan for Washington". Shoot me now.

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100104/BLOG13/100109956/-1/RSS24

http://www.clintdidier.org/

LOL! It would be pretty funny, at least. And nice to know Murray would start off with a floor about 57% or so, too.

So, any word on the 8th  congressional district? Are the Democrats really going to let this seat go again? Rodney Tom wanted to run in 2008, why doesn't he go for it?

The Democrats in my legislative district (5th) seem not-as-crappy-as-usual*. One of them seems to hate taxes a lot and the other is T-Mobile VP and Mallahan supporter. Still, they don't stand a chance given the climate, I suspect.

*In terms of electability, not me liking them necessarily.

[Ogre Mage]

Has anyone seen this shit?  If that is Murray's opponent, I will laugh hysterically for the entire campaign.

http://crosscut.com/2009/12/30/politics-government/19475/

[Meeker]

Oh yeah, I guess no one's ever mentioned the Hutchison buzz on here. It could happen. It would be hilarious.

[CultureKing]

Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

I highly doubt an R V R election will happen, only about 3 of the democrats are serious candidates and I am sure that at least one of them will drop out before the primary. Meanwhile there are still a good number of republicans in the race... It could be very interesting and the sort of thing where the primary is won by someone in the low 20s.

[bgwah]

A write-in Democrat could be pretty competitive in a R vs. R general, don't ya think? Write-ins usually can't get to 50%, but they can up to 40%, which would be all you need in a 3-way.

[Meeker]

Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

I highly doubt an R V R election will happen, only about 3 of the democrats are serious candidates and I am sure that at least one of them will drop out before the primary. Meanwhile there are still a good number of republicans in the race... It could be very interesting and the sort of thing where the primary is won by someone in the low 20s.

Oh I don't think there's a serious chance of it happening. There's a chance a D vs. D contest could result as well I suppose. I'd just find it amusing either way.

A write-in Democrat could be pretty competitive in a R vs. R general, don't ya think? Write-ins usually can't get to 50%, but they can up to 40%, which would be all you need in a 3-way.

Probably if the word was out that a write-in campaign was going on, but I'm pretty sure Washington State law forbids someone who lost in the primary from being a write-in during the general. We'd have to find some other candidate entirely, get a campaign up and get the word out before ballots start getting received in mid-October (a window of a little less than two months). It'd be challenging.

[CultureKing]

Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

I highly doubt an R V R election will happen, only about 3 of the democrats are serious candidates and I am sure that at least one of them will drop out before the primary. Meanwhile there are still a good number of republicans in the race... It could be very interesting and the sort of thing where the primary is won by someone in the low 20s.

Oh I don't think there's a serious chance of it happening. There's a chance a D vs. D contest could result as well I suppose. I'd just find it amusing either way.

A write-in Democrat could be pretty competitive in a R vs. R general, don't ya think? Write-ins usually can't get to 50%, but they can up to 40%, which would be all you need in a 3-way.

Probably if the word was out that a write-in campaign was going on, but I'm pretty sure Washington State law forbids someone who lost in the primary from being a write-in during the general. We'd have to find some other candidate entirely, get a campaign up and get the word out before ballots start getting received in mid-October (a window of a little less than two months). It'd be challenging.

Really? That is an odd law... I feel like being a write-in candidate would not really have any restrictions. Though a democratic write-in candidate in this situation would probably be guaranteed at least 25-30% of the vote (though only with the assumption that there is a notable and public write-in campaign).

[bgwah]

Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

I highly doubt an R V R election will happen, only about 3 of the democrats are serious candidates and I am sure that at least one of them will drop out before the primary. Meanwhile there are still a good number of republicans in the race... It could be very interesting and the sort of thing where the primary is won by someone in the low 20s.

Oh I don't think there's a serious chance of it happening. There's a chance a D vs. D contest could result as well I suppose. I'd just find it amusing either way.

A write-in Democrat could be pretty competitive in a R vs. R general, don't ya think? Write-ins usually can't get to 50%, but they can up to 40%, which would be all you need in a 3-way.

Probably if the word was out that a write-in campaign was going on, but I'm pretty sure Washington State law forbids someone who lost in the primary from being a write-in during the general. We'd have to find some other candidate entirely, get a campaign up and get the word out before ballots start getting received in mid-October (a window of a little less than two months). It'd be challenging.

Really? That is an odd law... I feel like being a write-in candidate would not really have any restrictions. Though a democratic write-in candidate in this situation would probably be guaranteed at least 25-30% of the vote (though only with the assumption that there is a notable and public write-in campaign).

Yeah, most states* have sore loser laws. If you lose a primary you can't run in the general.

*Some don't, like Connecticut...

[CultureKing]

Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

I highly doubt an R V R election will happen, only about 3 of the democrats are serious candidates and I am sure that at least one of them will drop out before the primary. Meanwhile there are still a good number of republicans in the race... It could be very interesting and the sort of thing where the primary is won by someone in the low 20s.

Oh I don't think there's a serious chance of it happening. There's a chance a D vs. D contest could result as well I suppose. I'd just find it amusing either way.

A write-in Democrat could be pretty competitive in a R vs. R general, don't ya think? Write-ins usually can't get to 50%, but they can up to 40%, which would be all you need in a 3-way.

Probably if the word was out that a write-in campaign was going on, but I'm pretty sure Washington State law forbids someone who lost in the primary from being a write-in during the general. We'd have to find some other candidate entirely, get a campaign up and get the word out before ballots start getting received in mid-October (a window of a little less than two months). It'd be challenging.

Really? That is an odd law... I feel like being a write-in candidate would not really have any restrictions. Though a democratic write-in candidate in this situation would probably be guaranteed at least 25-30% of the vote (though only with the assumption that there is a notable and public write-in campaign).

Yeah, most states* have sore loser laws. If you lose a primary you can't run in the general.

*Some don't, like Connecticut...

Hmm... in such a situation who would the dems go to? A representative like Williams?

[CultureKing]

... or is he a senator? I always forget, though I wont have to remember for much longer considering he is not running for re-election.

[Meeker]

... or is he a senator? I always forget, though I wont have to remember for much longer considering he is not running for re-election.

He's in the State House. And I'm honestly not really sure what we'd do in that situation. It's a weird one.

[Alcon]

Rumor has it that KING5 (through SUSA) is fielding a poll today about state support of legalizing marijuana, and that it will be broadcast on tonight's news.

[Meeker]

^^^ That bill is being heard right now, and it's scheduled for a vote later today. They usually don't schedule things for a vote unless they plan on passing it, so I'm a little confused...

[Alcon]

Today's poll is out, and pot legalization is very popular:

State lawmakers are considering making marijuana possession legal. Do you think legalizing marijuana is a good idea? Or a bad idea?
Good 56%
Bad 36%

State lawmakers are also considering the possiblitiy of selling marijuana at state-run liquor stores and taxing it. Would it be a good idea? Or a bad idea? To allow state-run liquor stores to sell and tax marijuana to raise revenue for the state?
Good 54%
Bad 43%

[CultureKing]

The state better tax it if they legalize. The income would be very welcome. My question is at what level would pot be legalized? Personally I feel like it should be at the same rate as tobacco...