2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Storr]

Dems on Twitter buzzing that there will be ABC/WaPo state results released at midnight that will be “mediocre” for Biden. Hard to say whether it’s credible or not, but apparently this person has had inside info before.

Got a link to one of their twitter accounts?

This and the replies provide more context

https://mobile.twitter.com/ReedForecasts/status/1322711733488726017

At least he has a sense of humor about it https://twitter.com/ReedForecasts/status/1322714551528415233?s=20

[BudgieForce]

Equivocating on the meaning of mediocre probably means Biden +5 in PA or something.

[LimoLiberal]

Biden +3 in PA, +4 in MI, +5 in MN or something

[Bootes Void]

Last ABC polls had Biden +11/12. it could be +7/+8. Not great but its fine going into election day.

trump leading to Biden leading by low digits(1-3)- Bad for Biden
Biden(4-7)= very underwhelming. could be mediocre if its in the final stretch
biden(8-10)=Good for Biden, could also be mediocre
Biden(11-12)= Great for Biden
Biden(+13)= absolutely fantastic

[TheLaRocca]

Last ABC polls had Biden +11/12. it could be +7/+8. Not great but its fine going into election day.

trump leading to Biden leading by low digits(1-3)- Bad for Biden
Biden(4-7)= very underwhelming. could be mediocre if its in the final stretch
biden(8-10)=Good for Biden, could also be mediocre
Biden(11-12)= Great for Biden
Biden(+13)= absolutely fantastic

when is WAPO dropping?

[forza nocta]

Last ABC polls had Biden +11/12. it could be +7/+8. Not great but its fine going into election day.

trump leading to Biden leading by low digits(1-3)- Bad for Biden
Biden(4-7)= very underwhelming. could be mediocre if its in the final stretch
biden(8-10)=Good for Biden, could also be mediocre
Biden(11-12)= Great for Biden
Biden(+13)= absolutely fantastic

when is WAPO dropping?

midnight EST

[Bootes Void]

Last ABC polls had Biden +11/12. it could be +7/+8. Not great but its fine going into election day.

trump leading to Biden leading by low digits(1-3)- Bad for Biden
Biden(4-7)= very underwhelming. could be mediocre if its in the final stretch
biden(8-10)=Good for Biden, could also be mediocre
Biden(11-12)= Great for Biden
Biden(+13)= absolutely fantastic

when is WAPO dropping?

generally on sunday midnight but they havent said anything yet. they will probably release a final pre election poll before tuesday

[LimoLiberal]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

[ON Progressive]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

[LimoLiberal]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

I wish you weren’t being sarcastic.

[ON Progressive]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

I wish you weren’t being sarcastic.

I am not being sarcastic.

[Roblox]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

Wait you have?

[LimoLiberal]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

I wish you weren’t being sarcastic.

I am not being sarcastic.

Ok then spill.

[ON Progressive]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

I wish you weren’t being sarcastic.

I am not being sarcastic.

Ok then spill.

I will not spill the full results publicly because the person who leaked them to me asked me not to do so and I respect those requests. All I will say is that the movement in PA/FL is within the margin of error.

[Ferguson97]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

I wish you weren’t being sarcastic.

I am not being sarcastic.

Ok then spill.

I will not spill the full results publicly because the person who leaked them to me asked me not to do so and I respect those requests. All I will say is that the movement in PA/FL is within the margin of error.

I'll take this to mean they're underwhelming for Joe

[libertpaulian]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

I wish you weren’t being sarcastic.

I am not being sarcastic.

Ok then spill.

I will not spill the full results publicly because the person who leaked them to me asked me not to do so and I respect those requests. All I will say is that the movement in PA/FL is within the margin of error.

Are the results fine enough that we don't have to doom post?

[ON Progressive]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

I wish you weren’t being sarcastic.

I am not being sarcastic.

Ok then spill.

I will not spill the full results publicly because the person who leaked them to me asked me not to do so and I respect those requests. All I will say is that the movement in PA/FL is within the margin of error.

Are the results fine enough that we don't have to doom post?

Yes, but I know people will because this is Atlas.

[LimoLiberal]

so everyone knows the results of these polls but me? Can someone just PM me lol

Anyways the last WaPo/ABC polls had Biden +9 in PA and Trump +4 in FL.

So probably something like Trump +2 and Biden +6.

[TheLaRocca]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

I wish you weren’t being sarcastic.

I am not being sarcastic.

Ok then spill.

I will not spill the full results publicly because the person who leaked them to me asked me not to do so and I respect those requests. All I will say is that the movement in PA/FL is within the margin of error.

Are the results fine enough that we don't have to doom post?

Yes, but I know people will because this is Atlas.

So in a nutshell Biden is ahead lol.

When does the national poll drop? that's the most accurate one.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, it's really happening again...

[Bootes Void]

Wow, it's really happening again...

What's happening..?

[DaleCooper]

Wow, it's really happening again...

What's happening..?

Trump is going to win because he's polling ahead in Iowa.

[Bootes Void]

Wow, it's really happening again...

What's happening..?

Trump is going to win because he's polling ahead in Iowa.

Let's see what other polls have to say , I have a feeling this is an overreaction

[LimoLiberal]

Nate is teasing us on the polls tomorrow and I'm a bit turned on

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage#trump-gets-his-best-poll-of-the-cycle-heres-how-to-put-it-in-perspective

No other indications of a last-minute surge. There’s another respect in which the Selzer poll is a bit of an outlier: It shows Mr. Trump gaining seven points compared with its prior survey. Four years ago, the Selzer poll was not alone in showing Mr. Trump picking up three points compared to a prior poll in early October, after the first debate.

This year, there’s not any other indication of a seven-point swing toward Mr. Trump, and there’s no reason to expect it either. The news environment doesn’t seem to have changed. The coronavirus spike is still the biggest national story, and I wouldn’t expect that to help the president. Maybe the final wave of polls over the next couple of days will hint at a shift, but for now there isn’t one.

Pennsylvania. Don’t let Iowa make you lose sight of the most important state in the election: Pennsylvania. We got an additional data point there today from Muhlenberg College, which showed Mr. Biden with a five-point lead in the state. That’s slightly better for Mr. Trump than our average or its last poll of the state about a week ago, when Mr. Biden led by seven points. These sample sizes are small, so this kind of change could very easily just be noise. But I do think the majority of telephone polls in Pennsylvania over the last week or two have shown a subtle shift toward Mr. Trump. We’ll get a lot more from Pennsylvania on Sunday or Monday.

So unless he's totally throwing us off, I expect a Biden +4-6 result in PA, maybe a Biden +5 in AZ, Biden up by a couple points in Florida, and a pretty good Biden result in Wisconsin, +8-10.

[DaleCooper]

Wow, it's really happening again...

What's happening..?

Trump is going to win because he's polling ahead in Iowa.

Let's see what other polls have to say , I have a feeling this is an overreaction

Oh I agree. I'm just saying that that is what the discourse has been for the last couple hours on Atlas.