IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[DaleCooper]

Y'all, idk if court packing will happen either (I've been disappointed by fence sitting dems too much thus far), but Biden and Schumer aren't clowns. They've clearly talked to Manchin, Sinema, and whoever else about this, that's why everyone is dodging questions on it and saying stuff about how they're "not a fan" or "apprehensive" and whatnot. Every dodge is more political capital they're sinking into this, so either it's all one big bluff (which would be just astoundingly incompetent even for the Democratic Party) or they are at least seriously considering it.

Court packing will happen once SCOTUS oversteps its boundaries and repeals either Obamacare or overturns Roe v. Wade. That'll also probably be when public opinion shifts in favor of judicial reform.  

[wbrocks67]

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

It'll be especially nasty if Iowa gives us a split verdict on Pres/Senate, lol.

I'm not changing my prediction maps in my profile, fwiw. MT and both GA seats flip before IA.

I’m really gonna flip out if Biden wins Iowa but Greenfield doesn’t.  Same with North Carolina (if Biden wins while Cunningham doesn’t).  A Senate seat is so much more valuable than a few extra electoral votes (which really have no value on their own if you are already at or above 270).

Hence my signature. This is why the "check on Biden" talking point (even when it's made with positive intentions) is potentially so dangerous for Democrats. Things aren't going to get any better if Republicans keep the Senate, no matter how much Biden wins by.

Given Trump's insanity and the SCOTUS going conservative + people not believing polls - I don't think there will be much, if any at all, of the "check on Biden" stuff this year.

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

Now she’s unskewing the polls? Her campaign is a dumpster fire.

  Sane and principled suburban Des Moines conservatives for Greenfield  

Is she trying to put the final nail in her coffin? Or has she just gone completely nuts? The fallout from the debunked conspiracy theory and soybeangate was already damning enough, but this will make waves locally and it’s certainly not the story she needs as voting is already underway. It’s like she knows she’s going to be voted out and has basically decided to throw in the towel.

What happened to her campaigning skills? I really miss the good old days of the strong Joni Ernst in 2014 who didn’t run on animal abuse, didn’t claim that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, never said that she wasn’t sure whether humans contributed to climate change or not, and didn’t embrace a ‘wild’ conspiracy theory according to which the United Nations would force farmers to abandon their land to live in cities. What happened?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Why would any conservative, or even a moderate vote for Greenfield?

Voters are not, by and large, ideologically coherent folk.

[Saruku]

*snip*

Now she’s unskewing the polls? Her campaign is a dumpster fire.

  Sane and principled suburban Des Moines conservatives for Greenfield  

Is she trying to put the final nail in her coffin? Or has she just gone completely nuts? The fallout from the debunked conspiracy theory and soybeangate was already damning enough, but this will make waves locally and it’s certainly not the story she needs as voting is already underway. It’s like she knows she’s going to be voted out and has basically decided to throw in the towel.

What happened to her campaigning skills? I really miss the good old days of the strong Joni Ernst in 2014 who didn’t run on animal abuse, didn’t claim that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, never said that she wasn’t sure whether humans contributed to climate change or not, and didn’t embrace a ‘wild’ conspiracy theory according to which the United Nations would force farmers to abandon their land to live in cities. What happened?

Don't forget the haircut! That may be the most key difference.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Slate has a good interview about this race

The Iowa Senate Race Wasn’t Supposed to Be This Close
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/iowa-senate-race-joni-ernst-theresa-greenfield.html

( podcast version: https://slate.com/podcasts/what-next/2020/10/iowa-senate-race-ernst-greenfield  )

[7,052,770]

Slate has a good interview about this race

The Iowa Senate Race Wasn’t Supposed to Be This Close
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/iowa-senate-race-joni-ernst-theresa-greenfield.html

( podcast version: https://slate.com/podcasts/what-next/2020/10/iowa-senate-race-ernst-greenfield  )

This is an interesting take, since go back to the threads about her in 2014, and basically everyone here, including the Republicans, thought she was a Palinesque dufus.

I'm not sure how she convinced anyone otherwise (or if she even really did), but her "hurr durr actually only 9,000 COVID deaths" conspiracizing should have been proof enough that she never stopped being one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How one state can crystalized users opinions about the way it will vote, D's obviously took back Congressional districts in 2018, 3/1, Lead in districts. They are gonna win again in 2020

[Xing]

Are we getting another Selzer poll of this race?

[Blair]

I think lots of people (including myself) should have looked at how effective the repeal of the ACA was in getting rid of Blum and Young in the two congressional race & then assumed that healthcare would be a drag on Ernst- the fact that she voted in favour of the democrats senate motion on the ACA lawsuit shows that she's very aware of it...

[Xing]

Ernst is up four. Well, this one was fun while it lasted. Guess the pig castrator gets six more years.

[SnowLabrador]

Ernst is up four. Well, this one was fun while it lasted. Guess the pig castrator gets six more years.

Let's be honest, she's a lifer if she wants to be. I guess Iowa loves incumbents after all.

[Xing]

Ernst is up four. Well, this one was fun while it lasted. Guess the pig castrator gets six more years.

Let's be honest, she's a lifer if she wants to be. I guess Iowa loves incumbents after all.

I don’t think it’s so much about incumbents as it is IA being a red state now. Still, the fact that Democrats need to win Senate seats in red states to win a majority just shows how unrepresentative it is.

[GALeftist]

Bad state. I wish I could be like SN and say to just junk it, but I think it's more likely than not that Ernst squeaks it out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ernst is up four. Well, this one was fun while it lasted. Guess the pig castrator gets six more years.

Let's be honest, she's a lifer if she wants to be. I guess Iowa loves incumbents after all.

I don’t think it’s so much about incumbents as it is IA being a red state now. Still, the fact that Democrats need to win Senate seats in red states to win a majority just shows how unrepresentative it is.

To be fair, Democrats had a lot of missed opportunities (WI-2016, PA-2016, NC-2016, FL-2018). Also the small state advantage is canceled out by the fact that the smaller the state, the higher the chance it defects from it's usual partisanship.

[GALeftist]

Ernst is up four. Well, this one was fun while it lasted. Guess the pig castrator gets six more years.

Let's be honest, she's a lifer if she wants to be. I guess Iowa loves incumbents after all.

I don’t think it’s so much about incumbents as it is IA being a red state now. Still, the fact that Democrats need to win Senate seats in red states to win a majority just shows how unrepresentative it is.

To be fair, Democrats had a lot of missed opportunities (WI-2016, PA-2016, NC-2016, FL-2018). Also the small state advantage is canceled out by the fact that the smaller the state, the higher the chance it defects from it's usual partisanship.

I'd argue Texas or even Ohio are much easier lifts than, like, Wyoming or Idaho.

[Calthrina950]

Ernst is up four. Well, this one was fun while it lasted. Guess the pig castrator gets six more years.

Let's be honest, she's a lifer if she wants to be. I guess Iowa loves incumbents after all.

I don’t think it’s so much about incumbents as it is IA being a red state now. Still, the fact that Democrats need to win Senate seats in red states to win a majority just shows how unrepresentative it is.

The Senate has been structured exactly the same way throughout this country's history. As I've said repeatedly, Democrats held Senate seats in states such as Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, the Dakotas-and of course, Montana-as late as 2010. And for a brief period in 2009-2010, from the time Al Franken was seated to the time that Scott Brown won the special election in Massachusetts, they held 60 seats. While I agree that it's unfortunate that our political environment has become polarized in this way, I also don't think that we should uproot this institution, and disrupt the balance between the two Houses of Congress.

[brucejoel99]

Ernst is up four. Well, this one was fun while it lasted. Guess the pig castrator gets six more years.

michael_scott_noooooooooooooooo.gif

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ernst is up four. Well, this one was fun while it lasted. Guess the pig castrator gets six more years.

Let's be honest, she's a lifer if she wants to be. I guess Iowa loves incumbents after all.

I don’t think it’s so much about incumbents as it is IA being a red state now. Still, the fact that Democrats need to win Senate seats in red states to win a majority just shows how unrepresentative it is.

To be fair, Democrats had a lot of missed opportunities (WI-2016, PA-2016, NC-2016, FL-2018). Also the small state advantage is canceled out by the fact that the smaller the state, the higher the chance it defects from it's usual partisanship.

I'd argue Texas or even Ohio are much easier lifts than, like, Wyoming or Idaho.

They are, but that's because OH and TX tend to be closer. As we've seen Democrats are bale to win seats in MT and WV, and even if they don't end up winning AK/MT/KS/SC, they at least have made them competative

[walleye26]

I want Ernst to lose so bad hopefully the Seltzer poll is off.

[Astatine]

I want Ernst to lose so bad hopefully the Seltzer poll is off.

Their crosstabs are... interesting.

[Lognog]

I want Ernst to lose so bad hopefully the Seltzer poll is off.

Their crosstabs are... interesting.

Elaborate?

[walleye26]

I want Ernst to lose so bad hopefully the Seltzer poll is off.

Their crosstabs are... interesting.

Elaborate?

It has Finkenauer losing by 13, 51-38, but Axne winning 50-45.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I want Ernst to lose so bad hopefully the Seltzer poll is off.

Their crosstabs are... interesting.

Elaborate?

It has Finkenauer losing by 13, 51-38, but Axne winning 50-45.

Finkenauer could lose, but that seems outside the range of reasonable outcomes unless there's something I'm missing

[cp]

So, I'm perfectly content to accept that IA is a GOP-leaning state and that Ernst could be 4 points ahead, but I'm confused by how we got here from 2 weeks ago when she was down by 5. Most of the news about the race that percolated up was neutral or positive for Greenfield. Did she lose late deciders because of partisan bias? That would suggest her leads a few weeks back were a chimera, but it wouldn't explain why things shifted in the past two weeks.