Spanish elections and politics

[Harlow]

If you have an extreme problem with a regional government, fire all the local politicians and replace them BEFORE VOTING DAY ARRIVES. YOU ABSOLUTELY DON'T BEAT INDIVIDUAL VOTERS WITH BATONS BECAUSE YOU FAILED AT OPTION #1. sh**tTY SPANISH GOVERNMENT.

I don't think a federal coup of Catalonia's regional government would go over particularly well, either...

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'm fervently opposed to Catalan/Scottish/Confederate/wherever independence because I do not believe that parts of countries with democratic governments should be able to easily leave whenever they happen to disagree with the rest of the country - but I am disgusted by the actions of the Spanish government today.

[TheSaint250]

PP is gonna suffer majorly for this at the polls, secession or not.  Rajoy is done.

[jaichind]

PP is gonna suffer majorly for this at the polls, secession or not.  Rajoy is done.

Are you sure about that.  I can see PP gaining in places like Andalusia, Extremadura and Castile and León as a result of this. 

[Harlow]

I'm fervently opposed to Catalan/Scottish/Confederate/wherever independence because I do not believe that parts of countries with democratic governments should be able to easily leave whenever they happen to disagree with the rest of the country - but I am disgusted by the actions of the Spanish government today.

The roots of cultural and political division between Catalonia and Spain go back centuries and can't be easily watered down to "leave whenever they happen to disagree with the rest of the country." Likewise for everywhere else you have mentioned.

[Former President tack50]

Official (provisional) results from the referendum:

Yes 2,020,144(90 %)
No 176,566 (7,8 %)
Turnout: 2,262,464 (no official data but using the 2015 regional elections as a benchmark it implies 41% turnout)

There are still like 50000 votes not counted.

[Lord Halifax]

Official (provisional) results from the referendum:

Yes 2,020,144(90 %)
No 176,566 (7,8 %)
Turnout: 2,262,464 (no official data but using the 2015 regional elections as a benchmark it implies 41% turnout)

There are still like 50000 votes not counted.

Where are they published?

[Former President tack50]

Official (provisional) results from the referendum:

Yes 2,020,144(90 %)
No 176,566 (7,8 %)
Turnout: 2,262,464 (no official data but using the 2015 regional elections as a benchmark it implies 41% turnout)

There are still like 50000 votes not counted.

Where are they published?

There was a press conference reciently. They were also published on the official twitter page for the catalan government

https://twitter.com/govern/status/914618211164934144
https://twitter.com/govern/status/914618004582879232

[The Mikado]

I'm fervently opposed to Catalan/Scottish/Confederate/wherever independence because I do not believe that parts of countries with democratic governments should be able to easily leave whenever they happen to disagree with the rest of the country - but I am disgusted by the actions of the Spanish government today.

You should bring that exact question up with regards to Irish independence in the 1910s and see what some of our Irish posters have to say about being a subject minority nation in a country with democratic representation and how well that worked out.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans won’t vote against secession from the federal government.

Well, they won't vote. This referendum is basically worthless and the Spanish government won't give them one. (unless Podemos+nationalists somehow get an absolute majority, but lol)

But yeah, this will just embolden the pro-independence side. I wouldn't be surprised if independence support increases quite a bit after this.

This referendum is totally legitimate. Let Catalonia be free.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I'm fervently opposed to Catalan/Scottish/Confederate/wherever independence because I do not believe that parts of countries with democratic governments should be able to easily leave whenever they happen to disagree with the rest of the country - but I am disgusted by the actions of the Spanish government today.

As a more libertarian leaning conservative, I support it because Madrid has repeatedly violated human and civil liberties that these people clearly have the right to.

[Former President tack50]

Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans won’t vote against secession from the federal government.

Well, they won't vote. This referendum is basically worthless and the Spanish government won't give them one. (unless Podemos+nationalists somehow get an absolute majority, but lol)

But yeah, this will just embolden the pro-independence side. I wouldn't be surprised if independence support increases quite a bit after this.

This referendum is totally legitimate. Let Catalonia be free.

Come on. I am not completely against a proper referendum (though I'd try to make it only a last chance compromise, ideally a federal Spain, fiscal autonomy or more self governance should be the preferred options), but this was far from a proper referendum. Even North Korean elections are more reliable.

There was no proper census, people were able to vote more than once, the police closed several polling places, there was an organized unionist boycott, etc.

If this had been a perfectly organized and legal referendum, I'd be the first to support Catalan independence, but this is not the way forward.

[Former President tack50]

The king spoke today on a special speech on national TV. This is actually very unprecedented as the king has only spoken on national TV outside christmas 3 times before: during the 1981 coup, right after the 2004 Madrid bombings and when he anounced his resignation in 2014.

The speech itself was quite uninteresting, just talking about "unadmisible unloyalty" by the Catalan government, guaranteeing Spain's unity and the like. Nothing that he hasn't said before.

It's less about the speech itself and more about the fact that he made a speech on TV.

Also, Rajoy met yesterday with both PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez and Cs leader Albert Rivera, with completely opposite results. Sánchez asked Rajoy to talk with Puigdemont while Rivera asked him to use article 155. Meanwhile Podemos wants PSOE to drop support for Rajoy and call a no confidence vote (which would pass if he got PNV and the Catalan nationalists).

[Kamala]

Wait, Juan Carlos spoke? Or Felipe VI?

[Helsinkian]

Wait, Juan Carlos spoke? Or Felipe VI?

Felipe, the current King.

[Former President tack50]

As part of the most recient CIS poll (which also said that Catalonia and terrorism have spiked as worries for Spaniards), there was apparently a question about centralism and federalism (which is always there) that I think could be interesting considering the current situation in Catalonia:

Please tell with which of these proposals for Spain's territorial organization do you agree with the most:

A state without autonomous communities: 18.9%
A state where autonomous communities have less powers than currently: 10.5%
A state with autonomous communities like we currently have: 36.8%
A state where autonomous communities have more powers than as of now: 15.8%
A state where autonomous communities would have the chance to become independent: 9.6%

Joining options 1 and 2 and 4 and 5 you probably get something like this:

Centralism: 29.4%
Status Quo: 36.8%
Federalism/Independence: 25.4%

As for party crosstabs, PP voters prefer centralism in general (47.6-38.5-7). PSOE prefers the status quo. Interestingly centralism beats federalism even though PSOE is the only party that explicitly calls for a federal state (23.9-49.4-19.2). Podemos voters prefer federalism/independence (25.3-32.5-41.3) and finally Cs voters also prefer centralism (44.5-32.5-17.5) though are slighly more moderate than PP ones as they prefer less autonomy over no autonomies at all.

And obviously those that voted for Catalan nationalist parties want independence. PNV voters want the status quo or more (4.5-54.5-40.9)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3187rei_A.pdf

Other crosstabs are available as well (by gender, by age, etc)

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2017/Documentacion_3187.html

Interestingly these numbers show a drop in support for the status quo and those who want independence. Those who want more central government have been increasing. Federalists have stayed flat. 

[mgop]

spain losing another part of territory. they didn't learn nothing in last 200 years.

[Former President tack50]

Well, it's official guys, Puigdemont actually did it! The absolute madman! He declared independence for all of 8 seconds before going back on his word and suspending the independence declaration for the sake of dialog (because of course Rajoy has been so open to it).

So now apparently an independent Catalonia has the somewhat dubious honor of being the shortest lived state and third shortest lived state in history respectively.



Now seriously, Puigdemont basically went to the Catalan parliament, implicitly declared independence (though he didn't say "I declare the independence of the Catalan Republic" or anything like that, he just hinted at it) and he inmediately suspended it.

I'm not sure if I should be disappointed or relieved. Tomorrow Rajoy will speak in the Congress of Deputies. Also tomorrow everyone expects the Constitutional Court to declare the indepependence declaration illegal.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/10/inenglish/1507620922_401849.html

As for reactions, the unionists (PSC, PP, Cs) are obviously unhappy with this. CUP is also unhappy, they wanted an explicit independence declaration that was effective inmediately. Maybe they'll break their deal, leading to an early election? Surprisingly, Podemos has been quite positive that they haven't declared independence outright and went for more talks.

[TheSaint250]

Well, it's official guys, Puigdemont actually did it! The absolute madman! He declared independence for all of 8 seconds before going back on his word and suspending the independence declaration for the sake of dialog (because of course Rajoy has been so open to it).

So now apparently an independent Catalonia has the somewhat dubious honor of being the shortest lived state and third shortest lived state in history respectively.



Now seriously, Puigdemont basically went to the Catalan parliament, implicitly declared independence (though he didn't say "I declare the independence of the Catalan Republic" or anything like that, he just hinted at it) and he inmediately suspended it.

I'm not sure if I should be disappointed or relieved. Tomorrow Rajoy will speak in the Congress of Deputies. Also tomorrow everyone expects the Constitutional Court to declare the indepependence declaration illegal.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/10/inenglish/1507620922_401849.html

As for reactions, the unionists (PSC, PP, Cs) are obviously unhappy with this. CUP is also unhappy, they wanted an explicit independence declaration that was effective inmediately. Maybe they'll break their deal, leading to an early election? Surprisingly, Podemos has been quite positive that they haven't declared independence outright and went for more talks.

"We are seceding from Spain...at an undetermined time!"

[Hydera]

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-ciudadanos-sube-18-escanos-y-desbanca-podemos-tercer-puesto-201710082154_noticia.html

http://www.electograph.com/2017/10/espana-sondeo-gad3-generales-octubre.html

Support for PP down while Ciudadanos is going up. C's Benefiting from the negative reaction against Independence as well as the Guardia Civil being sent to stop voting that resulted in violence.

[TheSaint250]

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-ciudadanos-sube-18-escanos-y-desbanca-podemos-tercer-puesto-201710082154_noticia.html

http://www.electograph.com/2017/10/espana-sondeo-gad3-generales-octubre.html

Support for PP down while Ciudadanos is going up. C's Benefiting from the negative reaction against Independence as well as the Guardia Civil being sent to stop voting that resulted in violence.

I'd say this is pretty expected.  I am surprised that PP didn't fall by more, though.

[Kamala]

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

[Oryxslayer]

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.

[Former President tack50]

Yesterday's weird "non declaration of independence" has been responded with an equally weird "non activation of article 155". Rajoy has asked the Catalan government if they have actually declared independence or not.

More interestingly, PSOE has said that they have reached an agreement with PP. They will support activating article 155, in exchange for a constitutional reform in 6 months. However that constitutional reform won't include a referendum.

I can see the reform making no one happy, with Podemos and nationalists voting against it since it lacks a referendum and Cs voting against it as they've been moving to the right of PP reciently.

PSOE+PP has the numbers for a light constitutional reform, but not for a large one. And it would require a referendum

Depending on how ambitious they want to be they might have to talk with Cs and Podemos or not.

[jaichind]

Catalonia crisis pushed C above Podemos in latest poll



https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-10-14/independencia-cataluna-estimacion-de-voto-ciudadanos-podemos-pp-psoe_1460752/