Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[KingSweden]

Falls Church, VA is already at 39% turnout.

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1059819422356070410

But it’s in NoVA and... and it’s raining?

[KingSweden]

This is petty and fun:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1059893731174858754

Ahahahaha

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What?

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What?

First part of the tweet:

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264

I want to clarify this...does he mean that turnout currently is that percentage at that hour compared to the total percentage in 2010?

^^^ good question

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889

The Arlington TX Precinct that didn't have ballots and where a lot of people apparently left was 66% Trump in 2008.

Unacceptable regardless of who it benefits. States need to get their stuff figured iut

[KingSweden]

Bartholomew County about 40% in, Braun up by 9 points

Young beat Bayh here by 24

Fun fact, that’s Pence’s home county

[KingSweden]

538's KY-06 estimate just flipped from 91-9 Republican to 91-9 Dem.  So I don't think you can trust that at all.

I think it’s too sensitive

[KingSweden]

If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now.

[KingSweden]

Why is Nevada taking so long?

Anyone know?

I think some polling places were open late

[KingSweden]

So if Tester wins(looking more and more likely) and Sinema pulls it out with all the ballots left, than a Dem +36 in the House and a Rep +2 in the Senate would be a pretty decent night for democrats all things considered.

If you’d told me that was the number I’d have been okay with it on Monday... provided that Rick Scott wasn’t part of that +2

[KingSweden]

Funny thing:

In 2012, the Senate margin of all 33 states was D+12 and Dems gained 2 seats.

Now, the Senate margin in all 25 states is D+15 and Dems lost 3 Senate seats with basically the same people running on the Dem side as in 2012 ...

That’s polarization for ya.

[KingSweden]

Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1060347112213360640

Hmm. Elias saved Roy Cooper’s bacon two years ago... doubt he can pull another rabbit out of a hat

[KingSweden]

Tester has broken 50% the first time ever in his elections.

It’s the haircut

[KingSweden]

There’s nothing quite like Longview/Kelso in Columbia Co, Oregon, though.

[KingSweden]

Marc Elias was lead counsel for Al Franken during the 2008 MN recount.

And for Roy Cooper two years ago

[KingSweden]

There better be D lawyers galore down in Broward rn figuring out the 30k undervote. Was there an underbite in the other row offices there too?

I’m sure Marc Elias has a legion of lawyers on his team

[KingSweden]

Ok, so apparently the drop-off in votes between Gov race and Sen race isn't limited to one type of voting. Unless my reasoning is bad, I think that does weaken the possibility of people not seeing the Senate race on the ballot and does strengthen the likelihood of poor machine calibration explaining the undervote. I'm presuming that people mailing in their ballots would take their time and notice if they had not voted for the Senate race.

Again, take my info with a grain of salt -- I'm getting it from twitter.

Which of course a hand recount would catch

[KingSweden]

Ok but apart from those votes, do we know how many outstanding votes are to be counted in Broward -- or other counties?

Nobody really knows

[KingSweden]

FL is going to give me a stroke.

[KingSweden]

Florida is an absolute mess, as always.

Applies to more than just its politics/elections infrastructure

[KingSweden]

McSally underperforming in a big way in the Pinal ballots that just dumped.

Does anyone else think Pinal and Pima sound too alike?

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060688348321378307

Didn’t the Rs also have +10 ID advantage in the early ballots across the board? So his bucket B shouldn’t be McSally-favorable.

Well, they’ll be more favorable than a 16 point blowout (presumably)

[KingSweden]

Sinema nets 7k votes from Pima

Whoa

[KingSweden]

Rick Scott just spoke from the steps of the Governor's mansion, accusing liberal activists and Hillary Clinton's lawyers of trying to steal the election from him. Appeared to be covered in sweat.

Sounds like somebody has found some horcruxes

[KingSweden]

This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060251726467469312

So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done.

Yeah if Sinema breaks even or even nets votes from this next batch, she’s won IMO. Anyone know when they’ll be counted?

There’ll be a batch tomorrow