Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden's take on the GOP is wishful thinking at best and naive at worst. As member of the Obama Admin, he should know better. The GOP is an obstructionist party that embraces far right policies, is in the pocket of special interests and a threat to our democracy. Its elected officials in congress are a bunch of cowards for selling out to Mr. Trump, the most unethical, corrupt and personally disgusting prez, and surrendering before their Fox "News" base. All because they put career and party over country. And these people won't change even if Mr. Trump goes down in flames next year. Let's be real here. Biden may know some of these congressional GOPers in private and thinks they are good people. But who cares if they are too cowardly to stand up to Mr. Trump's many violations or block everything to improve people's lives? I have zero respect for these GOPers in congress.

Biden certainly wishes the GOP would be a normal conservative party like the Canadian Tories or most Christan Democratic parties in Europe. But they have abandoned this many, many years ago. It may be there a few honorable GOP officials, like Gov. Baker, but they are not in congress.

Biden has not been my 1st choice, and I haven't decided who I will vote for in the CA Dem primary. It's going to be him, Warren or Butti. Anyone else beyond Sanders seems to have no chance either. For sure, I'll vote for any Dem nominee. Not that CA matters much though.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden's take on the GOP is wishful thinking at best and naive at worst. As member of the Obama Admin, he should know better. The GOP is an obstructionist party that embraces far right policies, is in the pocket of special interests and a threat to our democracy. Its elected officials in congress are a bunch of cowards for selling out to Mr. Trump, the most unethical, corrupt and personally disgusting prez, and surrendering before their Fox "News" base. All because they put career and party over country. And these people won't change even if Mr. Trump goes down in flames next year. Let's be real here. Biden may know some of these congressional GOPers in private and thinks they are good people. But who cares if they are too cowardly to stand up to Mr. Trump's many violations or block everything to improve people's lives? I have zero respect for these GOPers in congress.

Biden certainly wishes the GOP would be a normal conservative party like the Canadian Tories or most Christan Democratic parties in Europe. But they have abandoned this many, many years ago. It may be there a few honorable GOP officials, like Gov. Baker, but they are not in congress.

Biden has not been my 1st choice, and I haven't decided who I will vote for in the CA Dem primary. It's going to be him, Warren or Butti. Anyone else beyond Sanders seems to have no chance either. For sure, I'll vote for any Dem nominee. Not that CA matters much though.

This is where I disagree with you , I dont think the GOP politicians today are more cowardly than they were in 1974. The main difference is back then the voters were no where near as partisian as they were and almost every state in the union could potentially be won by the other party in some circumstances.This then forced the politicians to be honorable and not accept Nixon's crimes.

On the other hand today its the opposite, where over 80% of the states and races are basically Safe for one party(with rare exceptions like Roy Moore situations) and due to that politicians real only realistic threat of reelection comes from primaries not general elections.


When that happens you get our current situation.

GOPers in 1974 were much less cowards, even right wingers like Goldwater. If I remember correctly, it was him who told Nixon in August 1974 that he lacks support to survive the impeachment and that it's over. The base back then was less tribal for sure, what can be explained through the media landscape then and now. But evidence on Mr. Trump's misconduct is clear as day. And these congressional enablers are deflecting in phony excuses and embrace conspiracy theories that US Intel agencies debunked and warned them not to spread. If this is not a moment to put country over party, then what is? These senators and congressmen have no backbone. It's all about Mr. Trump's cult. Not even about conservative policies or Federalist Society judges. If Mr. Trump was removed, they would still get this stuff with Pence.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129

Biden signals to aides that he would serve only a single term

Making such a pledge wouldn't necessarily help him or Sanders. They would be lame ducks from the start on. Opponents in the campaign could also use it against them by raising health issues. He's fit to serve a single term, but doesn't feel fit afterwards? And what if, as the article says, they are popular by 2023 and feel healthy enough for a 2nd term? Not that I think it's likely with either Biden or Sanders that they run again, but who knows? If you plan on to retire after 4 years, I wouldn't put my cards on the table so early. He or Sanders should then simply make an announcement in spring or summer 2023 that they won't seek reelection.

If Biden is the nominee, I hope he picks Kamala Harris for VP and she'll be elected prez in 2024. Biden could serve as bridge to a new generation of leaders, and as experienced politician reverse the damage done by Mr. Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

Just like with the Harris Veep, he is pandering, Hoe would run for a 2nd term, he is just as old as Trump would be at the end of 2024

Hoe Biden.

Correction: Corrupted Hoe Biden.

[Sir Mohamed]

r Harris collapsed because she was a social radical.

That’s bullsh-t.

But it’s neither here nor there. Biden will be the nominee and I hope he chooses Harris.

Do you think Harris will endorse Biden before the primary is over (or even begun)?

[Sir Mohamed]

He is not gonna be the nominee

Due to being corrupted

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/melbournecoal/status/1220514333223981063

She's angling to the VP slot. But not the worst move either. As former Harris supporter, I'm more and more leaning towards Biden, despite some reservations. It's just that each of the other didn't convince me why they're better. Maybe Warren, but I'm not sure she has still a path and is able to defeat the most dangerous prez ever.

[Sir Mohamed]

TBH, I don't think Biden is even close to winning IA. There have been polls showing him ahead, but I just don't see it at this point. He may have a chance in NV, but after losing IA and NH the dynamics will have changed.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden was always going to do poorly in Iowa, but his collapse in NH is a bit alarming. I would not be surprised if some polls coming out of SC would show an erosion of his support to someone like Steyer, who has made inroad with the AA community.

His numbers would for sure drop and a win in NV out of reach. I don't think Steyer would go anywhere beyond that, even if he upsets SC (doubtful). Bloomberg is a much bigger threat to Biden going into ST and further March contests.

[Sir Mohamed]

“Whatever happens on Tuesday, Vice President Biden will still be in this race,” Symone Sanders, the Biden adviser he dispatched to Columbia, South Carolina, said repeatedly Tuesday on national and local television. “This race very much runs through Nevada, South Carolina and Super Tuesday.”

Privately, Biden’s campaign advisers sound gloomier notes.

“We have to do one thing: survive until South Carolina. We’re going to win South Carolina. If we don’t, we’re done,” said one.

The campaign once thought the candidate would win at least two of the first four early states: South Carolina and one other. But that talk is gone after the Iowa loss, the looming one in New Hampshire and the worry that on Feb. 22 he won’t carry Nevada, which Biden’s team mentions far less often than South Carolina and where operatives say Bernie Sanders is favored to win, despite polls showing Biden with a marginal lead.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/10/south-carolina-joe-biden-primary-strategy-113588

The problem for Biden is that 4th or even 5th finish NH will further sink his fundraising. He's already out of cash. Combined with a bad showing in NV, this may be a downward spiral for him. If he doesn't outperform expectations in NH, he's done.

[Sir Mohamed]

Calling it now: Biden is finished and should drop out. No excitement, no cash. I knew that he wouldn't be guaranteed the nomination, but that he falters this badly and so early on; 5th in NH and in single digits. He's done and should get out gracefully. He was an excellent VP to Obama and great senator, but this isn't his time.

I think he was been talked into running and decided to jump in after polls showed him to do well. This was basically Obama nostalgia and high name rec. Now that voters have seen him in action on his own, without Obama, they have concluded other candidates are better. And it's not even progressives, since moderate support goes to Butti and Klobuchar. Once Bloomberg is in, Biden has even fewer chances.

[Sir Mohamed]

Barack Obama endorsed Bloomberg.

Biden should withdraw and do the same. IMO.

Fake news. Obama didn't endorse and won't until there is a nominee.

[Sir Mohamed]

So here is what I don't fully understand:
Bernie barely won on his home turf of NH and it helped him significantly.
So if Biden barely wins in SC why does that hurt him?
Could someone clarify this for me? Thanks in advance!

1) It's not Biden's home turf
2) Expectations until his big collapse were that he'd win by 20-30 points, and even now, polls are pointing somewhat back in that direction
3) He needs to positively run up the score in the South to have a shot; a delegate advantage of 3-to-1 at minimum if he wants to win the most delegates nationally

Agree. He not just needs to win the South by a substancial margin and get Bloomberg out of the contest soon, he also needs to take winnable states elsewhere like NY, OH, MD, CT and IL, to name a few. Winning TX would also help him and block Bloomberg's ambitions. And keep the margin down in CA, which seems to be in safe Sanders territory right now.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden is not gonna win IL, I have friends there and they support Bernie

"Trump is not gonna win OH in November, I have friends there and they all support the Dem nominee"