Portugal's politics and elections

[CumbrianLefty]

Multidados poll for TVI/TVI24:

Vote share %:

35.5% PS
20.3% PSD
14.7% BE
 7.9% PAN
 5.6% CDU
 3.3% CDS
 5.0% Others
  7.7% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 18 and 28 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.5%.

It's hard to believe this poll. Such a result would be a massive earthquake.

Over 60% for various shades of left!

[urutzizu]

Over 60% for various shades of left!

Ah, calling the PS left is a bit much. When every German investor i know who has money in Euros wants Costa to win there comes a point i think where that statement becomes somewhat questionable.

[Mike88]

New controversy surrounding the government: Many family members of several ministers have direct businesses with the State.

Following the controversy with the son of the Secretary of State for Civil Protection, news emerges that there are other Government members with family members who do business with the State.

In the "Observador" there are names such as those of the Minister of Infrastructure, Pedro Nuno Santos, whose father has a machine equipment company for over 40 years and who has made contracts with public institutes.

To RR, Pedro Nuno Santos's office refers to António Costa's statement.

The first case was known on Tuesday. At stake are the three contracts that the son of the Secretary of State for Civil Protection, José Artur Neves, signed after his father took over governing roles. The secretary of state said on Tuesday that he had no influence or made any contact that could result in expectation of personal favor.

In the face of the controversy, Antonio Costa admitted to having doubts. The prime minister requested an opinion from the advisory board of the Attorney General's Office.

Without mentioning cases, the PM wants to clarify the possible impediments of companies in which family members of political office holders have a participation of more than 10%. Costa considers that the interpretation of the law that government members have to resign goes beyond what has been the practice over the years.

One expert heard by the Renascença Radio (RR) says it's clear that the current Incompatibility Law prevents the son of a public office holder who has more than 10% of the capital from concluding contracts with the state.

[Mike88]

Not related to Portuguese politics, but still some interesting data.

Marktest poll on the Portuguese electorate views on Donald Trump's presidency:

Q1: How do rate the governance of the President of the United States, Donald Trump?

53.6% Bad/Very bad
14.4% Good/Very Good
18.3% Average
13.7% Undecided

Q2: In your opinion, which one was the better US President, Obama or Trump?

84.6% Obama
  4.0% Trump
11.4% Undecided

Q3: Do you think Trump will be reelected?

42.2% No
41.3% Yes
16.4% Undecided

Poll conducted between 10 and 16 July 2019. Polled 912 voters. MoE of 3.24%

[CumbrianLefty]

Those figures for Obama/Trump

[Mike88]

Those figures for Obama/Trump

Trump is deeply unpopular around here. Even people on the right don't like him. I recall a report done in 2016 by a newspaper, don't remember which one, that all parties in Parliament supported Hillary Clinton.

Anyway, dates for the 2019 general election debates are announced:

2 September: Costa (PS) vs Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU) - SIC
3 September: Cristas (CDS) vs Catarina Martins (BE) - RTP3
5 September: Rui Rio (PSD) vs Cristas (CDS) - SIC
6 September: Costa (PS) vs Catarina Martins (BE) - RTP1
7 September: Catarina Martins (BE) vs André Silva (PAN) - SIC Notícias
9 September: Rui Rio (PSD) vs André Silva (PAN) - RTP1
11 September: Costa (PS) vs André Silva (PAN) - SIC
12 September: Rui Rio (PSD) vs Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU) - RTP1
13 September: Cristas (CDS) vs Costa (PS) - TVI
14 September: Cristas (CDS) vs André Silva (PAN) - RTP3
15 September: Rui Rio (PSD) vs Catarina Martins (BE) - TVI
16 September: Costa (PS) vs Rui Rio (PSD) - RTP1/SIC/TVI
18 September: PS vs PSD vs BE vs CDU vs CDS vs PAN - radio debate (RR, Antena1, TSF)
23 September: PS vs PSD vs BE vs CDU vs CDS vs PAN - RTP1

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, he is "deeply unpopular" *here* - but that is of a different order.

(to put it in context, rather more than 4% of people think the moon landings were faked/Elvis is alive)

[Mike88]

PSD still in turmoil - Many local party leaders are resigning after the approval of the lists for the general elections:

Even though the PSD lists for the October general elections were approved with by a good share, 80%+, the party isn't united. In fact, many PSD local leaders are resigning due to their fury with the lists made by Rui Rio. PSD leaders in Leiria and Aveiro, two PSD strongholds, have already resigned and in Porto, many local PSD members are furious by Rio's medling in the district lists. Many PSD members chosen to be on the lists are also asking to be removed from the lists.

Because of all of this tension with the party machine in the local branches of the party, Rio is considering creating a call-center to get out the vote and mobilize the PSD members and electorate.

[Mike88]

Poll of Polls, by POLITICO EUROPE, of the Portuguese general elections:
(seats projection from here)*

Vote share % and seats:

37.6% PS, 110 seats (+24)
22.0% PSD, 67 (-22)
11.6% BE, 25 (+6)
  6.1% CDU, 12 (-5)
  6.0% PAN, 11 (+10)
  3.9% CDS, 5 (-13)
  1.3% Alliance, 0 (new)
11.5% Others/Invalid, 0 (nc)

*The seat change already accounts the +1 in Porto and Lisbon, and the -1 in Guarda and Viseu.

And in charts, this is what it looks like: (chart done by Pedro Magalhães)
https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1156569015977959425
64 days until election day.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll on religion and politics in Portugal:

Q1: Which religion do you worship?

74% Catholic
  1% Protestant/Evangelic
  1% Jehovah Witness
  1% Christian doctrine
  1% Other Christian belief
  0% Islam
  0% Judaism
12% None
11% Undecided

Q2: Should Catholic priests be allowed to get married?

87% Yes
10% No
  3% Undecided

Q3: Should nuns be able to celebrate mass?

76% Yes
19% No
  5% Undecided

Q4: Should divorce couples be allowed to commune again in Church?

93% Yes
 3% No
  4% Undecided

Q5: Should same sex couples be allowed to marry in the Church?

65% Yes
29% No
  6% Undecided

Q6: Are there radical speeches in mosques in Portugal?

57% No
26% Yes
17% Undecided

Q7: Should burqas be banned in Portugal?

49% No
47% Yes
  4% Undecided

Q8: Should city halls give financial support to built mosques?

40% Yes
38% No
18% Neither agree or disagree
  4% Undecided

Q9: Which topics should Church leaders pronounce?

50% Only religious topics
35% All topics
10% All topics except politics
  5% Undecided

Q10: Should shopping malls and supermarkets be open on Sunday?

52% Yes
42% No
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.54%.

[Mike88]

Government is training state drivers and calling the army as meetings between truck drivers and bosses fail:

The 12 August strike, similar with the April strike, could still be cancelled, but as meetings between truck drivers and bosses have failed, until the moment, the government is training state drivers in order for them to steer trucks with fuel, and others, in the days of the strike. The army is also being called to drive trucks and to pave the way for state workers to drive trucks, as tense protests of picket unions are expected.

[Mike88]

2019 general election campaign - Liberal Initiative mocks PS election poster with the "familygate" scandal:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1158875254225276929

PS says: #We fulfill. Liberal Initiative replies: #with cousins?:

[Mike88]

The government decrees energy emergency due to the truck drivers strike:
https://twitter.com/JNegocios/status/1159157732827697154
The government has decreed energy emergency as the truck drivers strike looms ahead. The strike, to start next Monday, has forced the government to decree minimum services across the country in order for fuel to be available for hospitals, firefighters and other state services. Several gas stations will have fuel open for the public. The government also announced that the army is on hold if additional measures are needed, adding that fuel rationing, if the strike goes on for several days, is on the table.

As bosses applaud the government, truck drivers unions are strongly attacking the government, saying that the Constitution is being violated and that democracy is being attacked. Some unions are considering contesting the government's minimum services in court.

[Mike88]

Political update:

As the government declares energy emergency and the war of words between truck drivers unions and the government continues, a new development has arise. The controversial spokesperson of the main truck drivers union, Pedro Pardal Henriques, will the head candidate for PDR, Democratic Republican Party, from Lisbon. PDR leader is the also controversial António Marinho e Pinto. Mr Pardal Henriques, a lawyer who got famous after arriving in a Maserati to speak to truck drivers, is the spokesperson of the main truck drivers union and is currently being investigated by the lawyer's bar association for suspicion of fraud.

In other stories, a critical dead line for the Madeira regional elections is just around the corner: Parties have until Monday to present lists for the 22 September elections. Until now, the parties that have, or will, present lists are the following:

PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party
PS - Socialist Party
CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party
BE - Left Bloc
JPP - Together for the People
CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party
PAN - People-Animals- Nature
A - Alliance
PDR - Democratic Republican Party
PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party
CH - Ehough!
RIR - React, Include, Recycle
IL - Liberal Initiative
PNR - National Renovator Party
PURP - United Party of Retirees and Pensioners
MPT - Earth Party

Other parties like NC - We, the Citizens, and PPM - People's Monarchist Party, could still present list of candidates.

Local Madeira newspaper, Diário de Notícias Madeira, has a good hour by hour update of all the news of the Madeira election campaign: https://www.dnoticias.pt/liveblog/saiba-tudo-sobre-as-regionais-KK3840590

(I believe it's only available in Portuguese, sorry)

[Mike88]

Government decrees energy crisis and "alert situation" as fuel stocks start to scarce in several points on the country:

The government has decreed a nationwide energy crisis as the truck drivers strike seems inevitable this point, although there has been a buzz that it could be delayed to September, just close to election day. The energy crisis will start at 23:59 of Friday, 9 August and will continue on to 21 August. In the first two days, Saturday and Sunday, the government plans to mobilize state workers to prepare for the strike, and after 23:59 Sunday, time when the strike is due to start, drivers are only allowed to fuel 15 liters of gas in normal gas stations, and 25 liters in gas stations classified as priority stations.

This is the first time that an energy crisis is declared in Portugal.

[Mike88]

Madeira regional elections: PS campaign bus vandalized in Porto Santo island.

https://twitter.com/dnoticiaspt/status/1160120360810864640

Cafôfo campaign bus in Porto Santo: Paulo Cafôfo's campaign bus was vandalized in Porto Santo. The vehicle was found with several broken windows, as shown in the photographs

[Mike88]

Truck drivers strike - Costa says he has done everything to prevent the strike and that his government will assure the rights of the Portuguese people:

Prime Minister António Costa assured Saturday that the Government will not hesitate to exercise its "own powers" by adopting other measures if the driver strike progresses and the minimum services set are not met. "We will take the necessary measures," he said at the end of today's emergency meeting to coordinate the government's response to the effects of the drivers' strike. "We are in a position to provide the possible answer" in any scenario, he repeated.

Asked whether mediating this conflict would give him an absolute majority in legislative elections, Costa dismissed this intention: "We cannot have electoral considerations when it comes to people's security." "The National interest never takes a vacation," he said.

(...)

The prime minister assured that the government has "done everything so that the strike does not materialize". "It is up to the Government to ensure the rights of the Portuguese," he said, adding that he hopes "that the next few days can bring normality back to the life of the Portuguese."

[Mike88]

Political and election update:

Truck drivers strike - The government has approved a civil requisition:

The government has approved a civil requisition in order for the minimum services, laid out for the strike, are followed. The government said they had no choice as the unions weren't respecting the services laid out by the truck drivers bosses and the government. For the civil requisition, the army and the police will be called to drive trucks with fuel to gas stations, hospitals and other facilities.

Unions are furious towards Costa, saying his government is violating the right to strike as they say the minimum services are being followed, but acknowledge a failure in information. Truck drivers bosses say the strike is a "national embarrassment" and regret the damage is making to the economy.

For the 2019 general elections, the Electoral Commission has confirmed the number of MPs to be elected by district and the number of registered voters able to vote. The seat projection had already been done by pundits:

 5 Azores
16 Aveiro
  3 Beja
19 Braga
  3 Bragança
  4 Castelo Branco
  9 Coimbra
  3 Évora
  9 Faro
  3 Guarda (-1)
10 Leiria
48 Lisbon (+1)
  6 Madeira
  2 Portalegre
40 Porto (+1)
  9 Santarém
18 Setúbal
  6 Viana do Castelo
  5 Vila Real
  8 Viseu (-1)
  2 Europe
  2 Outside Europe

Adding to this, there will be 10,811,436 registered voters for the general elections.

And in Madeira, today was the deadline for parties to present their lists. A total of 17 lists will be on the ballot in the Madeira regional elections on September 22. The list, by alphabetic order, is the following:

A - Alliance, center-right
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
CDU - Democratic Unitary Coalition (PCP/PEV), leftwing
CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party, center-right
CH - Enough!, rightwing to far-right
IL - Liberal Initiative, center to center-right
JPP - Together for the People, center
MPT - Earth Party, center-right
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party, far-left/Maoist
PDR - Democratic Republican Party, center
PNR - National Renovator Party, far-right
PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party, center-right
PS - Socialist Party, center-left
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left
PURP - United Party of Retirees and Pensioners, big tent/pensioners rights
RIR - React-Include-Recycle, big tent/anti-system

[Mike88]

This got a lot of buzz on social media...

PNR, National Renovator Party, slogan for the 2019 general elections:
https://twitter.com/pnr/status/1160070926991577088

Our campaign motto in these 2019 elections. Who accompanies us? Make Portugal great again.

Yeah... let's go back to the 15th century, when we owned half of the world.

[Mike88]

Madeira regional elections - 22 September:

With parties lists already delivered for the Madeira regional elections, the Parliament that ends (2015-2019) was like this, in terms of seats:

24 PSD - Absolute majority
  7 CDS
  5 PS
  5 JPP
  2 CDU
  2 BE
  1 PTP
  1 Independent (former PND member)

Like was posted above, 17 parties will be on the ballot in the Madeira regional elections. The 47 members of the regional parliament are elected by a single constituency that represents all of the Madeira islands. To elect members the method used is the D'Hondt method.

[xelas81]

Madeira regional elections - 22 September:

With parties lists already delivered for the Madeira regional elections, the Parliament that ends (2015-2019) was like this, in terms of seats:

24 PSD - Absolute majority
  7 CDS
  5 PS
  5 JPP
  2 CDU
  2 BE
  1 PTP
  1 Independent (former PND member)

Like was posted above, 17 parties will be on the ballot in the Madeira regional elections. The 47 members of the regional parliament are elected by a single constituency that represents all of the Madeira islands. To elect members the method used is the D'Hondt method.

Wow. CDS won more seats than PS last time.
I'm guessing PTP won't win a seat this time since they were in coalition with PS last election?

[Former President tack50]

This got a lot of buzz on social media...

PNR, National Renovator Party, slogan for the 2019 general elections:
https://twitter.com/pnr/status/1160070926991577088

Our campaign motto in these 2019 elections. Who accompanies us? Make Portugal great again.

Yeah... let's go back to the 15th century, when we owned half of the world.

Reminds me of when Vox here ran under "Make Spain Great Again" in 2016 and got 0.2% of the vote. Now they got 10%

So if trends hold across the border PNR will enter parliament in 2023

[Mike88]

Wow. CDS won more seats than PS last time.
I'm guessing PTP won't win a seat this time since they were in coalition with PS last election?

Polls give PTP numbers bellow 1%, and in the EP elections it only got 1.3%, so they are not even close to hold that seat. PAN is very likely to regain the seat they won in 2011, but lost it in 2015 when they were part of the PS led coalition. Polling in Madeira has a tendency to overestimate the PS, the exceptions were the 2013 and 2017 local elections. In 2011, polls placed the PS is second place, but ended up in third, the same happened in 2015. The EP elections were a huge poll on the pulse of Madeira and the PS performed below expectations, while the PSD had a surprise result. The feeling, right now, is that the PSD is on curse to win but will lose their majority, which could open the door to other outcomes.

Reminds me of when Vox here ran under "Make Spain Great Again" in 2016 and got 0.2% of the vote. Now they got 10%

So if trends hold across the border PNR will enter parliament in 2023

Nowadays, we cannot rule out anything, but that's still very unlikely. PNR is regarded as a joke party even by rightwing movements in Portugal. Most of them started in PNR, but left the party to persue their own movements. Not to mention that the rightwing electorate in Portugal is very pragmatic. As Portugal is a country were the center-left to leftwing is the main ideological area, around 38% of the electorate, center-right to rightwing voters know that the only way to have power is to vote in either PSD, or CDS in less extent. Current polling is showing an interesting trend, as the rigthwing electorate is so disappointed and frustrated by the current PSD and CDS leadership, one might think they would favour more radical options like Enough! or PNR, but that's not happening. Polls show that a considerable part, more than 20% are considering skiping this election and around 10% will vote PS. So, in theory is possible, but in practice is very unlikely. We'll see.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Portugal is such a freedom country. It seems like a PS-PAN-BE government is possible to form.

[Mike88]

Portugal is such a freedom country. It seems like a PS-PAN-BE government is possible to form.

Right now, if the PS, after the elections, still needs the support of BE or CDU, that would create a sense of defeat for Costa and the PS. The current trend, and mood, suggest a landslide victory for the PS, with even the possibility of winning a majority with a vote share bellow 40%. Costa and the PS are working really hard to get a result that let them govern basically alone, without the support of BE+CDU. The ideal result for the PS is an absolute majority, of course, but a very strong minority, 112/113 seats, would be also perfect as they would only need the support of PAN. Anything lower than that would be a huge disappointment for the Socialists, that would create a sense of a bitter victory almost identical with the 1999 PS election victory.