Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from July:

Vote share %:

37.5% PS (+1.9)
23.6% PSD (+0.5)
  9.4% BE (+0.4)
  6.8% CDU (-0.2)
  4.9% CDS (-1.7)
  4.0% PAN (-0.2)
10.2% Others/Invalid (-2.0)
  3.6% Undecided (+1.2) 

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

10.6 António Costa (+0.3)
  9.9 Catarina Martins (nc)
  9.2 André Silva (-0.1)
  8.9 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.3)
  6.6 Assunção Cristas (+1.3)
  6.5 Rui Rio (+0.3)

Preferred PM:

55.3% António Costa (+1.3)
27.2% Rui Rio (+1.5)

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 July 2019. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Aximage seems to have stop polling Santana Lopes Alliance party.

[Mike88]

More data from Aximage and GfK/Metris polls:

GfK/Metris poll - Most important issue for the electorate in the 2019 general elections: (compared with the February poll)

25% Healthcare (-5)
23% Corruption (+15)
15% Jobs/Wages (-1)
11% Economy (-5)
  5% Pensions (nc)
  3% Justice (-6)
  3% Politics (-2)
  2% Education (-4)
  2% Environment/Climate change (+1)
  2% Housing (+1)
  9% Others/Undecided

Poll conducted between 15 and 27 June 2019. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

Aximage poll - Popularity of ministers of António Costa' cabinet:

Popularity ratings (Best; Worst (Margin))

Mário Centeno, finance minister: 31.9%; 3.1% (+28.8 )
Augusto Santos Silva, foreign affairs minister: 4.8%; 1.0% (+3.8 )
Pedro Nuno Santos, infrastructure minister: 3.1%; 0.1% (+3.0)
Pedro Siza Vieira, economy minister: 0.6%; 0.3% (+0.3)
Manuel Heitor, higher education minister: 0.3%; 0.2% (+0.1)
Mariana Vieira da Silva, presidency minister: 0.1%; 0.0% (+0.1)
Capoula dos Santos, agriculture minister: 2.6%; 2.6% (0.0)
Nelson de Souza, planning minister: 0.0%; 0.0% (0.0)
Matos Fernandes, environment minister: 1.9%; 2.0% (-0.1)
Ana Paulo Vitorino, sea issues minister: 0.9%; 1.0% (-0.1)
Graça Fonseca, culture minister: 0.9%; 1.1% (-0.2)
Vieira da Silva, social security minister: 2.7%; 2.9% (-0.2)
Gomes Cravinho, defense minister: 1.6%; 2.4% (-0.8 )
Francisca Van Dunem, justice minister: 2.1%; 4.9% (-2.8 )
Eduardo Cabrita, interior minister: 2.1%; 8.3% (-6.2)
Tiago Brandão Rodrigues, education minister: 3.8%; 11.0% (-7.2)
Marta Temido, healthcare minister: 4.1%; 34.8% (-30.7)

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 July 2019. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

At the same time, António Costa has chosen Marta Temido, the deeply unpopular healthcare minister, like the poll above shows, as the head candidate for the PS in Coimbra district, 9 seats to elect.

[Mike88]

PS unveils their full election manifesto:

The Socialist Party (PS) has published in their website the full election manifesto for the October 6 general elections. The manifesto will be approved during today, Saturday, in a party convention in Lisbon. The main policies are the following:

- Increase in tax deductions in function of the number of children;
- Move towards the incorporation of the different types of IRS income taxes, eliminating the differences between them;
- Reduction of taxes for the middle class;
- Increase the progressiveness of the IRS, as a corollary of the distributive tax side;
- Tax benefits for electric cars;
- Scrap harmful tax incentives to the environment;
- Creation of the Carbon tax;

- Creation of the National Democratic Literacy Plan;
- Inclusion of the study of the Constitution at all levels of education;
- Creation of the National Citizenship Day, in order to promote democratic values;
- Introduction of gaming to promote the knowledge of fundamental rights and values of citizenship to more younger people;

- Extend the current parity law to all government branches;
- Create greater visibility and intervention of the Portuguese of African and Gypsy origin;
- Strengthen the mechanisms of repression of hate speech, especially in social media networks;
- Creation of an observatory of racism and xenophobia;
- Fighting social segregation by creating incentives for gypsy children to continue in school;
- Creation of quotas for handycap people in the public and private sector;
- Create more mechanisms to establish wage equality between women and men;

- Fighting against domestic abuse, creating an integrated system of signaling of potential victims and aggressors;
- Unifying the data base of victims of domestic abuse;
- Creating a separate justice department to judge crimes of domestic violence;

- Creation of single constituencies (FPTP), at the same time a separate election system to promote proportionality in Parliament;
- Expanding early voting and electronic voting;
- Election of mayors by municipal assemblies, scraping the current system of electing councillors;
- Election of 5 regional committees through an electoral college of mayors, parish presidents;

[urutzizu]

- Creation of single constituencies (FPTP), at the same time a separate election system to promote proportionality in Parliament;

I am very interested in this. Do they elaborate a bit on that? What do you think of the Chances of it passing?

[Mike88]

- Creation of single constituencies (FPTP), at the same time a separate election system to promote proportionality in Parliament;

I am very interested in this. Do they elaborate a bit on that? What do you think of the Chances of it passing?

Not much. And the chances of this going forward are near zero. The two main parties have always wanted some kind of change in the electoral system, sometimes it's the PSD that wants FPTP, and this time, and i believe that in 2015 also, the PS supports FPTP, with some kind of proportionality. But, it's just, IMO, words to fill the manifesto. PS doesn't want to piss off the leftwing parties, especially BE, just like the PSD doesn't want to piss off CDS.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

43.2% PS (+2.8 )
21.6% PSD (-0.9)
  9.2% BE (+1.0)
  6.8% CDU (+0.3)
  6.0% CDS (-0.1)
  3.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Alliance (-0.3)
  8.4% Others/Invalid (-2.7)

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.54%.

[windjammer]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

43.2% PS (+2.8 )
21.6% PSD (-0.9)
  9.2% BE (+1.0)
  6.8% CDU (+0.3)
  6.0% CDS (-0.1)
  3.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Alliance (-0.3)
  8.4% Others/Invalid (-2.7)

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.54%.

Is it an all time low for the right?

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

43.2% PS (+2.8 )
21.6% PSD (-0.9)
  9.2% BE (+1.0)
  6.8% CDU (+0.3)
  6.0% CDS (-0.1)
  3.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Alliance (-0.3)
  8.4% Others/Invalid (-2.7)

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.54%.

Is it an all time low for the right?

Yes, and it basically matches the all time low for PSD+CDS in the 2014 EP elections, 27.7%. In terms of polling, PSD and CDS were in very low levels in the summer of 2017, polling around 28%, in this poll, if add the Alliance, the right is at almost 29%.

This poll has some strange numbers, PAN is too low, PS may be overestimated, PSD a bit underestimated and the Others/Invalid numbers seem also too low, but the trend is clear, the PS is cruising, for the moment, for an absolute majority in the fall general elections. Because many centrist/center-right voters, that normally give strong numbers for the PSD, are so demoralized and disappointed by the current leaderships in the PSD and CDS, they are willing to skip this election, rather than to vote PSD or CDS. This helps the PS as the overwhelming majority of leftwing/center-left voters, 37-38% of the electorate, are very excited and the PS could win a slim majority with a very low result, 38-39%, because of the huge margin between them and the PSD.

Greece went back to old party politics early this month, and it seems that Portugal will follow them, according to current polling, into a return old party politics of the main establishment parties.

[Farmlands]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

43.2% PS (+2.8 )
21.6% PSD (-0.9)
  9.2% BE (+1.0)
  6.8% CDU (+0.3)
  6.0% CDS (-0.1)
  3.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Alliance (-0.3)
  8.4% Others/Invalid (-2.7)

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.54%.

I honestly doubt the difference will be that stark, bad leaders in the right or not. And polls like this are just making my decision of who to vote for even more difficult, not sure I want a PS absolute majority.

[Mike88]

More data from the Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Q1: Who will win in October?

75% António Costa (+7)
  7% Rui Rio (-1)
  1% Others (-2)
17% Undecided (-3)

Q2: Will any party achieve an absolute majority?

75% No
12% Yes, PS
  2% Yes, PSD
10% Undecided

Q3: If the PS wins without a majority, what should they do?

46% Coalition with other parties
17% Parliamentary agreement with other parties
17% Govern as a minority
20% Undecided

Q4: With who should the PS form a coalition? (one or two choices available)

All voters:

43% BE
26% CDU
17% PSD
  8% CDS
  8% PAN
  2% Others
  8% None

PS voters:

62.7% BE
38.4% CDU
12.3% PSD
  9.4% PAN
  3.6% CDS
  5.1% None

Q5: How to rate the job performance of the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa?

92% Positive (+3)
  8% Negative (-3)

Q6: Should the President be more demanding towards Costa' government?

65% Yes (+4)
31% No (-3)
  4% Undecided (-1)

Q7: How do rate the government's performance:

51% Approve (-1)
38% Disapprove (nc)
12% Undecided (+1)

Q8: In your opinion, who's the "de facto" leader of the opposition?

38% Rui Rio (+8)
17% Assunção Cristas (-7)
13% Catarina Martins (+3)
  2% Jerónimo de Sousa (-1)
31% None (nc)

Q9:  How do rate the opposition's performance:

56% Disapprove (+4)
  8% Approve (-1)
36% Undecided (-3)

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.54%.

Interesting that the same poll that gives the PS a huge absolute majority, using simulations they would get around 125/126 seats, has 75% of voters saying NO party will in a majority.

[Mike88]

PS presents all their candidates after they were approved with 80-92% of votes of party council members:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1154490262061633536

"PS is ready" and confident even in the "hardest constituency". And raises the bar to the time of the absolute quasi-majority:

The PS approved, last Tuesday, all the names in their lists for the October general elections. The government is deeply present in the lists, with Costa choosing many ministerial names to head or be part of the lists. The lists were approved by wide margins, 80%+, and the only problem for the PS was the Braga district list, the "Portuguese Ohio". There, the PS is deeply divided and it's one of the few districts where the PS is losing some support in national and local elections. The big surprise of the lists was the nomination of Augusto Santos Silva, foreign affairs ministers, as the head candidate in the Outside of Europe constituency. The PS was only able to win a seat in this constituency, that elects 2 MPs, in 1999, as it has always been dominated by the PSD and CDS. Nonetheless, the final head candidates by district are the following:

Azores: Isabel Rodrigues
Aveiro: Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure minister
Beja: Pedro do Carmo, current MP
Braga: Sónia Fertuzinhos, current MP
Bragança: Jorge Gomes, current MP
Castelo Branco: Hortense Martins , current MP
Coimbra: Marta Temido, Health minister
Évora: Capoula dos Santos, Agriculture minister
Faro: Jamila Madeira, current MP
Guarda: Ana Mendes Godinho , secretary of state for tourism
Leiria: Raúl Castro, Leiria mayor
Lisbon: António Costa, PS leader and Prime Minister
Madeira: Carlos Pereira, current MP
Portalegre: Luís Moreira Testa, current MP
Porto: Alexandre Quintanilha, current MP
Santarém: Alexandra Leitão, Secretary of State for Education
Setúbal: Ana Catarina Mendes, PS deputy secretary
Viana do Castelo: Tiago Brandão Rodrigues, Education minister
Vila Real: Ascenso Simões, current MP
Viseu: João Azevedo, Mangualde mayor
Europe: Paulo Pisco, current MP
Outside Europe: Augusto Santos Silva, foreign affairs minister

In the main districts, many incumbent government members are also in the lists:

Lisbon district: (47/48 seats)

1. António Costa, Prime Minister
2. Edite Estrela
2. Ferro Rodrigues, Speaker of Parliament
4. Mariana Vieira da Silva, Presidency minister
5. Mário Centeno, Finance minister/Eurogroup chairmain/Possible contender for the IMF leadership
6. Graça Fonseca, Culture minister
7. Gomes Cravinho, Defense minister

Porto district: (39/40 seats)

1. Alexandre Quintanilha
2. Rosário Gamboa
3. Matos Fernandes, Environment minister
4. Ana Paula Vitorino, Sea affairs minister
5. José Luís Carneiro, secretary of state for Portuguese communities

Setúbal district: (18 seats)

1. Ana Catarina Mendes
2. Eduardo Cabrita, Interior minister
3. Eurídice Pereira
4. João Galamba, Energy secretary
5. Ricardo Mourinho Félix, budget secretary

The full lists, by district, are available here.

In the PSD, tensions are back, as usual. The prospect of the party winning something around 70 seats, a record low for the party, is creating some tensions as seats are few for many people. The final lists will only be approved on July 30, but meetings between the PSD national leadership and local PSD parties are very tense, with some having screaming matches. The PSD list for Santarém is, currently, the most difficult as the inclusion of MP Duarte Marques in the top spots, angered the local PSD leadership which resulted in a violent screaming/insult match between the local PSD and the national PSD. Adding to this, many PSD MPs close to Passos Coelho and Rio's opposition within the PSD, are being excluded from the lists, like Hugo Soares and Maria Luís Albuquerque, former finance minister, and, according to some pundits, a possible contender in the PSD 2020 leadership election.

But, that's not the only problem. Current polling puts the PSD at record low levels, 22-24%, and PSD leader Rui Rio is downplaying the polls, saying that there are too many and if the poll numbers are good, why bother to hold an election. After these remarks, Rio posted this weird tweet:

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1153673619207348224

I have, in my naivete, noticed that in these surgical days leading up to the National Council for the choice of deputies, some surgical journalists considered to be associated with Freemasonry give more surgical importance to Pitagórica surgical poll than to others.

All of this isn't new in the PSD. Even in the Cavaco Silva golden era there were huge tensions between party members on who should be in the lists, but this time, the fact the PSD is so low in the polls makes the situation more tense.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for the Madeira regional elections (September 22):

Vote share %:

33.3% PSD (-1.4), 18/19 seats
31.9% PS (-5.0), 17/18
  7.1% CDS (-0.9), 3/4
  6.9% BE (+2.9), 3/4
  4.2% JPP (-0.6), 2
  4.0% CDU (+0.4), 2
  0.5% PTP (-0.4), 0
12.0% Others/Invalid (+4.9), 0/1

Poll conducted between 21 and 24 July 2019. Polled 1,519 voters in Madeira islands. MoE of 2.51%

[VPH]

A good piece summing up the crossroads PS finds itself at with the election coming up. https://www.southeusummit.com/europe/portugal/alliances-fray-as-portugals-socialists-rise-in-popularity/?utm_source=Weekly+News+7.26.19&utm_campaign=WeeklyNews7.28.17&utm_medium=email

[Mike88]

A good piece summing up the crossroads PS finds itself at with the election coming up. https://www.southeusummit.com/europe/portugal/alliances-fray-as-portugals-socialists-rise-in-popularity/?utm_source=Weekly+News+7.26.19&utm_campaign=WeeklyNews7.28.17&utm_medium=email

I would argue that what Costa and the PS really want, in their heart, is a majority, but, at the same time, they know the risks of it. One of the main surprises of the current Parliament was the weird silence of BE and PCP in terms of welfare policies. Like that piece says, public services are in dire need for cash and the PS basically used the PSD/CDS text book on how to run the public services, and in a normal time, BE/CDU would be pissed off by these kind of policies and would rally against the government. That didn't happen.

If the PS gets a majority, Costa will be alone for the first time ever. He will not have the silent support of BE and CDU, which, in the advent of majority, will probably fight against the PS majority. In the last four years, every time Costa was in a difficult spot, he was successful in warning the left, and also the right, of the risks of toppling him, shifting some, or the majority, of the blame to the other parties rather than to him and the PS. With a majority, Costa will be the sole responsible of all of his actions, good or bad, and some in the PS may be a bit nervous about it. We'll see.

[Mike88]

2019 election debates dates are announced:

The main TV and Radio networks have announced the debates for the 2019 general election campaign. There will be two head-to-head debates between Costa (PS) and Rio (PSD), one in TV and the other in the Radios. There will also be 8 head-to-head debates between the main 6 parties represented in Parliament and one radio debate between all 6 party leaders, PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS and PAN. The dates announced are the following:

Between 3 and 15 September - Head-to-head debates between all party leaders (PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS and PAN);
16 September - TV debate between Costa (PS) and Rio (PSD), broadcast by RTP1, SIC and TVI;
18 September - Radio debate between the leaders of PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS and PAN;
23 September - Radio debate between Costa (PS) and Rio (PSD), broadcast by Antena1, TSF and RR (to be broadcast later in the day on RTP1);

Debates between smaller parties, not represented in Parliament, will be broadcast on cable networks, SIC News, RTP3 and TVI24.

[VPH]

2019 election debates dates are announced:

The main TV and Radio networks have announced the debates for the 2019 general election campaign. There will be two head-to-head debates between Costa (PS) and Rio (PSD), one in TV and the other in the Radios. There will also be 8 head-to-head debates between the main 6 parties represented in Parliament and one radio debate between all 6 party leaders, PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS and PAN. The dates announced are the following:

Between 3 and 15 September - Head-to-head debates between all party leaders (PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS and PAN);
16 September - TV debate between Costa (PS) and Rio (PSD), broadcast by RTP1, SIC and TVI;
18 September - Radio debate between the leaders of PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS and PAN;
23 September - Radio debate between Costa (PS) and Rio (PSD), broadcast by Antena1, TSF and RR (to be broadcast later in the day on RTP1);

Debates between smaller parties, not represented in Parliament, will be broadcast on cable networks, SIC News, RTP3 and TVI24.

The smaller party debates are my favorites. The EP ones were so darn entertaining, especially the back-and-forth between Andre Ventura and the MAS leader.

[Mike88]

2019 election debates dates are announced:

The main TV and Radio networks have announced the debates for the 2019 general election campaign. There will be two head-to-head debates between Costa (PS) and Rio (PSD), one in TV and the other in the Radios. There will also be 8 head-to-head debates between the main 6 parties represented in Parliament and one radio debate between all 6 party leaders, PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS and PAN. The dates announced are the following:

Between 3 and 15 September - Head-to-head debates between all party leaders (PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS and PAN);
16 September - TV debate between Costa (PS) and Rio (PSD), broadcast by RTP1, SIC and TVI;
18 September - Radio debate between the leaders of PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS and PAN;
23 September - Radio debate between Costa (PS) and Rio (PSD), broadcast by Antena1, TSF and RR (to be broadcast later in the day on RTP1);

Debates between smaller parties, not represented in Parliament, will be broadcast on cable networks, SIC News, RTP3 and TVI24.

The smaller party debates are my favorites. The EP ones were so darn entertaining, especially the back-and-forth between Andre Ventura and the MAS leader.

Yeah, that debate was quite entertaining. I think it was the PCTP/MRPP candidate that had an "interesting discussion" with André Ventura, not MAS candidate. To add also, in these smaller parties debates you will have Santana Lopes probably moan that he shouldn't be there but rather in "other debates"...

Also, interesting development about the Salazar museum project as it will open after the summer:

The Interpretive Center of the Estado Novo, dedicated to the regime led by António Oliveira Salazar, will open after summer. The location is the parish of Vimieiro, in Santa Comba Dão, where the Portuguese dictator was born. "Construction start in two or three weeks and the opening of the doors is scheduled for three months from now," the local mayor, Leonel Gouveia, told Expresso. Initially, entry into the space, located in the former Salazar Cantina School, will be free.

"My predecessor worked very badly on this project, causing a lot of jealousy, for and against the Interpretive Center. But this will be a place to study the history of the Estado Novo. Not a sanctuary for nationalists, nor a museum to go to diabolize the statesman from Santa Comba Dão", guarantees the mayor.

Still, Fernando Rosas, a historian who specializes in Estado Novo, fears that Santa Comba Dão will eventually become a center for "roaming the homesick people of fascim", as with Predappio. The small Italian town is where the dictator Benito Mussolini was born and buried. For Irene Pimentel, perceiving Salazarism is "fundamental" to understand Portugal, but it is necessary to be careful. "The problem is who does it and how it is done," the historian told the weekly, defending the need for everything to be historically contextualized.

[Mike88]

Government under fire as anti-fire collars are revealed to be highly flammable:

The government has been under fire, in the last few days, due to the anti-fire and prevention kits given to populations in rural areas. It was revealed, after last week week devastating wildfires in Central Portugal, that 70,000 anti-fire collars/masks and vests are highly flammable. According to the media, the collars, intended to protect people from toxic fire gases, start burning almost immediately when in contact with high temperatures. The Interior minister response to the media was very badly received, as he was very nervous and arrogant, and accused the media for being "alarmist" and "irresponsible".

But, the media started to dig in and found out that the company that sold the anti-fire collars to the government was owned by the husband of a PS parish president from Guimarães And it seems that the government paid double the price for the collars, as the market price is between 0,63 and 0,74 euros and the government paid 1,80 euros, not to mention that the company proposed collars resistant to fire, but the government found it expensive. The company added, that prices were higher because who ordered them was in quite in a hurry.

[Mike88]

Paderne parish by-election - PS gain from Independent:

Vote share %:

76.7% PS (+43.6), 8 seats (+5)
15.0% PPM (new), 1 (new)
  8.3% Blank/Invalid (+4.3)

32.7% Turnout (-17.6)

[Mike88]

Madeira regional election campaign:

PSD annual rally/festival in Chão da Lagoa.
https://twitter.com/Alexandre_Poco/status/1155494256880029697

[windjammer]

I love Portugal! I will definitely learn Portuguese before dying!

[Mike88]

Anti-fire collars scandal provokes one casualty in Costa's government:

https://twitter.com/revistaSABADO/status/1155804005831991296

Portugal - Deputy Secretary of State for Civil Protection resigns after controversy over flammable kits.

Francisco José Ferreira assumed that he recommended the companies that provided the 70,000 flammable smoke collars and the material for the 15,000 emergency villages of the Safe Villages program.

And then the media started looking at his background...

https://twitter.com/revistaSABADO/status/1155846785623048193

The baker who at 28 years old became a Civil Protection specialist in the Government.

Francisco Ferreira, PS Arouca leader, was named in November (€ 3,575 gross). In December Foxtrot was created by the husband of a PS parish president. In May, he recommended her for the collars contest.

[Mike88]

Multidados poll for TVI/TVI24:

Vote share %:

35.5% PS
20.3% PSD
14.7% BE
  7.9% PAN
  5.6% CDU
  3.3% CDS
  5.0% Others
  7.7% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 18 and 28 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.5%.

[crals]

Multidados poll for TVI/TVI24:

Vote share %:

35.5% PS
20.3% PSD
14.7% BE
  7.9% PAN
  5.6% CDU
  3.3% CDS
  5.0% Others
  7.7% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 18 and 28 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.5%.

It's hard to believe this poll. Such a result would be a massive earthquake.

[Mike88]

PSD national council approves the party lists for the general elections with 82% support, after a meeting full of bitter attacks against Rui Rio:

After huge internal tensions, due to the names Rio choose for the party lists for the fall general elections, the PSD national council approves with 82% of the votes the lists proposed by Rio. However, the meeting was anything but calm. Many PSD members attacked Rio for being too centralized and designing district party lists against the wishes of many local PSD branches. Hugo Soares, former PSD caucus leader, was the most harsh towards Rio. Mr Soares, who was booted out from the lists by Rio, accused Rio of disliking the PSD and that he should fuel all that anger he has towards the PSD against the PS instead. In the end the final head list candidates by district are the following:

Azores: Paulo Moniz
Aveiro: Ana Miguel Santos
Beja: Henrique Silvestre Ferreira
Braga: André Coelho Lima, Guimarães city councillor
Bragança: Adão Silva, current MP
Castelo Branco: Cláudia André
Coimbra: Mónica Quintela
Évora: Sónia Ramos
Faro: Cristovão Norte, current MP
Guarda: Carlos Peixoto, current MP
Leiria: Margarida Balseiro Lopes, JSD, PSD youth branch, leader
Lisbon: Filipa Roseta, Cascais city councillor
Madeira: Miguel Albuquerque, President of Madeira regional government
Portalegre: António Miranda
Porto: Hugo Carvalho, president of the National Youth Council
Santarém: Isaura Morais, Rio Maior mayor
Setúbal: Nuno Carvalho, Setúbal city councillor
Viana do Castelo: Jorge Mendes
Vila Real: Luís Leite Ramos, current MP
Viseu: Fernando Ruas, former Viseu mayor
Europe: Carlos Alberto Gonçalves, current MP
Outside Europe: José Cesário, current MP

In the 4 main districts, (54% of all MPs to be elected) the lists are the following:

Lisbon district: (47/48 seats)

1. Filipa Roseta, Cascais city councillor
2. José Silvano, PSD general-secretary
2. Pedro Pinto, PSD-Lisbon leader
4. Isabel Meirelles, PSD deputy
5. Marques Guedes, current MP
6. Duarte Pacheco, Parliament secretary
7. Sandra Pereira
8. Batista Leite, current MP

Porto district: (39/40 seats)

1. Hugo Carvalho, president of the National Youth Council
2. Rui Rio, PSD leader
3. Catarina Ferreira
4. Alberto Machado, PSD-Porto leader
5. Cancela Moura, Gaia city councillor
6. Maria Rocha
7. Afonso Oliveira, current MP

Braga district: (19 seats)

1. André Coelho Lima, Guimarães city councillor
2. Firmino Marques, Braga city deputy mayor
3. Clara Marques Mendes, current MP
4. Carlos Reis, currently being investigated for corruption charges
5. Jorge Oliveira, current MP
6. Maria Baptista
7. Emídio Guerreiro, current MP

Setúbal district: (18 seats)

1. Nuno Carvalho, Setúbal city councillor
2. Fernando Negrão, PSD caucus leader
3. Maria Fernanda Velez
4. Bruno Vasconcelos
5. Tiago Sousa Santos

It's hard to believe this poll. Such a result would be a massive earthquake.

Yeah, it's an odd poll. BE seems ridiculously high, not to mention PAN. PS and PSD, curiously, seem about right, maybe both a bit up, but still. CDU very low and CDS is in a descendent path, but 3.3% is very, very low. Another poll that puts Santana Lopes Alliance bellow 1% and mixed with the "Others".

Also, never heard of "Multidados". TVI normally had Intercampus polls, which were very reliable.