Portugal's politics and elections

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

so why did PAN win a European seat?

[Mike88]

so why did PAN win a European seat?

PAN has been surging in the polls for some time now. But, no one predicted that 5% result that they got in the EP elections. PAN seems to be filing the empty space, in Portuguese politics, left for environmental issues as BE has dropped those issues a long time ago, and PEV, PCP coalition partner in CDU, is very weak and has very little political strength. Nonetheless, PAN is a party open to talk to both left and right, and, in fact, PAN leader has stated that he would be open to support either PS or PSD governments.

PAN attracts particularly young urban voters that swing between PS and PSD. It's very strong on social media, only being surpassed by PSD. As it is also a somewhat new party, it's also becoming a protest party for voters who dislike the two main parties, PS and PSD, but are also unhappy with BE, CDU and CDS.

[Mike88]

Costa becomes the 1st PM to lead his party to a higher share of the vote in the European elections compared with the previous general election result:

https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1132982634731245569

Losses/gains, in percentage points, of government parties in the European elections compared to previous legislative elections.

[Mike88]

Costa opens the door to possible agreements with PAN, therefore considers ditching BE and CDU:

In TV interview, this Monday night, António Costa has open the door for a possible governmental agreement between PS and PAN, adding that the agreement between PS and BE/CDU could not be repeated. During the interview Costa said this about the PS/BE/CDU agreement:

"What we have managed to converge on has been enough for a very good friendship, but insufficient for us to have a marriage. I do not foresee that any of the parties are available to be mischaracterized."

PAN leader, André Silva, also in a TV interview said that PAN is open to be part of government solutions:

PAN isn't available to be decades and decades in Parliament to play the role of opposition party as we have often seen. We must be constructive even if we do not count for parliamentary mathematics. A political party serves to occupy a position of power or to be influencing power. This is the role of PAN at this time, that is what we want to continue to do, with more strength and more pressure.

Nonetheless, he was vague about a possible PS-PAN coalition saying that for now, he doesn't forsee a marriage but rather a friendship.

[Mike88]

Madeira regional elections - Paulo Cafôfo resigns as mayor of Funchal to focus on the regional elections:

The scale of the PS defeat in Madeira has forced Paulo Cafôfo, mayor of Funchal, to anticipate his departure from Funchal city hall. Cafôfo was expected to resign only by August, but, according to Madeira media, the disappointing result of the PS in Madeira and the unexpected huge swing in favour of the PSD, made the him, and the Socialists, change course.

Elections in Madeira are schedule for 22 September. Cafôfo will lead the PS against the incumbent PSD government, in power since 1976 (43 years).

[Mike88]

Corruption scandals - Mayors of Barcelos and Santo Tirso cities, plus the chairman of the North branch of Cancer Hospitals, arrested:

The police have arrested several people today involved in several corruption scandals. The main arrests have been the mayors of Barcelos and Santo Tirso cities, both from the PS, plus the chairman of the North (Porto) branch of the Portuguese Institute for Oncology. The wife of the mayor of Santo Tirso, Manuela Couto, was also arrested. The arrests happen after the police investigated several shady deals involving these politicians:

The investigation, centered on the municipalities of Santo Tirso, Barcelos and the Portuguese Institute of Oncology of Porto, found a general scheme, through the concerted action of local authorities and public agencies, fraudulent vitiation of tender procedures and direct adjustment with the objective of favouring specific groups of companies, the hiring of human resources and the use of public means to meet private interests."

For the moment, the people arrested should be free after talking with the police.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

40.4% PS (+3.2)
22.5% PSD (-3.1)
  8.2% BE (-0.1)
  6.5% CDU (nc)
  6.1% CDS (-0.4)
  3.6% PAN (+0.8 )
  1.5% Alliance (-0.3)
11.2% Others/Invalid (-0.3)

Government performance:

44% Average (nc)
31% Positive (+3)
25% Negative (-2)

Opposition performance:

52% Negative (+1)
39% Average (nc)
  9% Positive (+1)

Q1: Who do you think will win in October?

68% António Costa (+1)
  8% Rui Rio (-2)
  4% Other (+1)
20% Undecided (+1)

Poll conducted between 10 and 19 May 2019. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Political update:

A busy week in Portuguese politics. The week started with the fallout of the EP election results, but two other issues have been dominating the headlines.

During this week a weird report about how the treasury was forcing taxpayers to pay their debts stunned the country. On Wednesday, treasury workers, alongside police officers, were forcing people to stop their cars in a roundabout in Valongo, Porto, and asked why they didn't payed their debts, as the police could know by the car registration the financial situation of someone, and that they had two options: either pay now or their car would be pawned. This treasury action got a lot of media attraction and furious taxpayers were interview on TV. It seemed this wasn't the first time this kind of actions were put into place. Nonetheless, the backlash was big and the government was forced to cancel all initiatives similar to this. But, there would be more.

The next day, the treasury announced a mega operation to track down wedding businesses and others. According to the media, the treasury wanted to fiscalize what happens during a wedding and would break in, if necessary. Once again, the government was forced to intervene, and the Finance ministry announced that this operation would be canceled, as it wasn't reported in due time to the minister.

At the same time, the bad state of public transportation continues to make headlines. During this week, several trains were suppressed in Lisbon, but it's in Barreiro city, a suburb of Lisbon, where the situation in more tense. For weeks now, boat masters have been on strike forcing the suppression of many boats between Lisbon and Barreiro, and this week ugly scenes were seen in Barreiro boat terminal. Passengers furious about the strike and the low quality of transportation, invaded the terminal, smashed windows, and there were some scenes of violence, as the police was called to intervene. At the meantime, the strike was called off.

The bad situation of public transportation has forced the government to apologize. By the voice of the Infrastructure minister, Pedro Nuno Santos, he apologized by the current situation. António Costa also acknowledge that some public services run in a very poor way. For left to right, parties were a bit stunned by the government's position and all of them mocked the government in Parliament. The media also didn't received well this governmental reaction.

In top of all of this, parties are still assessing what happened in the EP elections. The PS and Costa, confortable in their current position, has laid out the timetable for the General election campaign and has established the main election campaign topics for the Socialists:

- Climate change;
- The demographic challenge;
- Responses to the transition to digital society;
- Valorization of sovereignty functions;

The PSD, heavily bruised after a very poor result of just 22%, seems to be putting aside any internal tensions and looking forward for the fall general election campaign. The Social Democrats have approved the qualities their MPs should have to be part of the lists: competence, loyalty, etc. Plus, has unveiled the first of their campaign posters, and slogans, for the general elections.

In CDS, the situation is a bit more tense, with Cristas receiving very harsh criticisms from all sides and some CDS local leaders are resigning in protest towards Cristas. Adding to all of this, the media is also now focusing more on PAN. In the last few days, two reports, from Observador and Diário de Notícias newspapers, are portraying PAN as weird and secretive party, where the party congresses  are behind closed doors and where big personal revenges take place. The Diário de Noticias report, and the Observador report.

[Mike88]

Gfk/Metris-ICS/ISCTE poll on Populism in Portugal:

Q1: MPs should follow the will of the people?

84% Agree/Strongly agree
  9% Neither agree nor disagree
  6% Disagree/Strongly disagree
  3% Undecided

Q2: The most important political decisions should be taken by the people, not politicians?

63% Agree/Strongly agree
20% Neither agree nor disagree
14% Disagree/Strongly disagree
  5% Undecided

Q3: The differences between the elite and the people are bigger than the political differences between the people?

73% Agree/Strongly agree
13% Neither agree nor disagree
  4% Disagree/Strongly disagree
11% Undecided

Q4: It's better to be represented by a citizen than a professional politician?

60% Agree/Strongly agree
18% Neither agree nor disagree
15% Disagree/Strongly disagree
  7% Undecided

Q5: Politicians talk too much and do too little?

86% Agree/Strongly agree
  7% Neither agree nor disagree
  2% Disagree/Strongly disagree
  5% Undecided

Q6: In politics, what is called 'reaching a compromise' means actually abdicating your own principles?

58% Agree/Strongly agree
17% Neither agree nor disagree
15% Disagree/Strongly disagree
  9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 22 April and 3 May 2019. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

Follow up op-ed on Expresso newspaper by Pedro Magalhães: Populism in Portugal: a sleeping giant.

If we think about it, it is possible that there is no great mystery in this. In order to be consistent, populism depends not only on the social demand, which clearly exists in Portugal, but also on political supply and opportunities. In other words, it needs to be "activated" politically. In all the other countries I mentioned earlier, leaders and parties have adopted a populist discourse on concrete and salient issues for particular segments of the electorate at certain times. Without this, populism remains socially and politically diffuse. At the same time, the success of this activation increases when a society is going through situations of real crisis (economy, political scandals) or imagined ("waves of crime", "refugee invasions"). The present Portuguese moment in this also does not seem particularly favorable. Using an image struck in these matters, but particularly propitious, populism in Portugal is a giant, but a sleeping giant. For a while.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

That may be the dumbest poll I've ever seen. They might as well have asked "Do you find it bad when politicians lie and embezzle money?"

[Mike88]

That may be the dumbest poll I've ever seen. They might as well have asked "Do you find it bad when politicians lie and embezzle money?"

According to the article, it seems they formed questions based on Cas Mudde, Agnes Akkerman and  Andrej Zaslove work published in 2014 about populism: "How Populist Are the People? Measuring Populist Attitudes in Voters".

But you're right that the questions, or statements, asked are quite general and the vast majority would support them.

[Mike88]

Mayoral by-election to be held today in Castro Marim city, Faro district:

Almost 6,000 registered voters are called to vote in a local mayoral by-election in Castro Marim, Faro district, today. The election was called after the PSD/CDS minority said it couldn't govern as the PS+Independent opposition was blocking every move by the mayor. There are 3 lists running: PSD/CDS; PS; CDU. The Independents didn't run this time, which could help the PSD/CDS, as the head of the former Independent list was a former PSD member. But, on the otehr hand, the PS won the EP elections, convincingly, in Castro Marim with almost 38% of the votes, although with just a 26.8% turnout rate.

[Mike88]

Castro Marim mayoral by-election - PSD/CDS hold:

59.8% PSD/CDS (+22.7), 3 seats (+1)
34.5% PS (-1.9), 2 (nc)
  3.5% CDU (+1.1), 0
  2.3% Blank/Invalid (-0.9)

55.8% Turnout (-11.7)

[Mike88]

New parties:

Tino de Rans party, "React, Include and Recycle (RIR)", was today approved by the Constitutional Court. The Court validated more than 7,600 signatures, of the 10,600 delivered, thus legalizing the party. The party is now the 24th official party in Portugal.

Other well known personality, just like Tino de Rans, is also considering forming a political party. José Castelo Branco, a personality that has participated in several reality shows, has created a movement called "Portuguese Justice Movement (MJP)" and wants to run in the 2019 fall general elections:

https://twitter.com/mjpttt/status/1135332623017041921

On October 6, vote MJP. It's now. José Castelo Branco.

Reactions have turn into mockery by the vast majority of the press, and Castelo Branco himself has entered in a war of words with André Ventura, Enough! leader. Ventura said that "politics can not be a stage of ordinary propaganda and of reality shows". Castelo Branco responded by calling Ventura "corny".

In reality, he will not form a party at time to run in the elections. There's just no time for it, but, Portuguese politics is right now in a weird spot...

[Mike88]

1st poll after the EP elections.

Eurosondagem poll:

Vote share %:

37.1% PS (+0.2)
24.0% PSD (-1.0)
  9.1% BE (+1.3)
  6.3% CDU (-1.0)
  6.0% CDS (-2.4)
  4.8% PAN (+2.3)
  1.9% Alliance (-1.6)
10.8% Others/Invalid (+2.2)

Popularity ratings: (Approve; Disapprove; margin)

71.0%;   8.5%, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa +62.5%
55.1%; 24.6%, António Costa +29.4%
43.0%; 31.6%, Rui Rio +13.6%
41.6%; 26.9%, Government +12.9%
38.1%; 26.7%, Parliament +11.5%
40.7%; 29.6%, Catarina Martins +11.1%
40.7%; 30.7%, Jerónimo de Sousa +10.0%
36.6%; 32.2%, Assunção Cristas +4.4%

Poll conducted between 2 and 5 June 2019. Polled 1,008 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

1st poll after the EP elections.

Eurosondagem poll:

Vote share %:

37.1% PS (+0.2)
24.0% PSD (-1.0)
  9.1% BE (+1.3)
  6.3% CDU (-1.0)
  6.0% CDS (-2.4)
  4.8% PAN (+2.3)
  1.9% Alliance (-1.6)
10.8% Others/Invalid (+2.2)

Seat projection: (compared with the 2015 election)
116 needed for a majority

108 PS (+22)
  72 PSD (-17)
  18 BE (-1)
  13 CDU (-4)
  10 CDS (-8)
    8 PAN (+7)
    1 Alliance (new)

PS would have a majority with PAN: 116 seats
PS+CDU+BE: 139 seats
PS+CDU: 121 seats
PS+BE: 126 seats

Seat projections from here.

[Former President tack50]

What would be PAN's demands to PS if PS-PAN got a majority? As I understand the relations between PS and CDU/BE aren't exactly great from what I've heard.

[Mike88]

What would be PAN's demands to PS if PS-PAN got a majority? As I understand the relations between PS and CDU/BE aren't exactly great from what I've heard.

Mostly environmental issues, like a more tough stance against global warming, for example, but overall, in terms of specific policies, everything is still up in the air. The PS has been talking a lot, in the last few days, about environment issues and Costa announced that climate change and other environmental issues, will be one of the PS main campaign arguments for the fall general election. And PAN has responded that they are willing to support any government that considers their policies. Now, the problem for the PS is that in terms of environmental issues, they are quite vague and have to create new policies, but the other side is that the PS prefers a more fiscal/economic moderate party, like PAN, which are the PS main policies, as a coalition partner rather than BE/CDU.

You're absolutely right, relations between PS and BE/CDU are at breaking point. Their agreement is in a state, you could call it, of coma. Plus the bad results of CDU, is making the party question future supports to the PS in the future. We'll see.

One policy area which could create tensions between PS and PAN could be public transportation. Recently, the government cut the price of tickets dramatically, which was very well received, but investment in transports itself isn't happening. Every day, reports of trains, buses and boats suppressed or canceled make headlines. PAN, in the advent of PS-PAN coalition, could force strong investments in transportation, which could conflict with the policies of the finance minister, Mário Centeno, as he isn't very keen on spending money.

[Mike88]

Some policy updates.

PSD wants prison penalties up to 3 years for those who kill company animals:

The PSD has presented legislation to perfect the current penal regime for those who abandon and kill company animals. The party wants prison penalties up to 3 years for those who kill animals, like cats or dogs, outside the legal locations. The Social Democrats say they want to clear all doubts from the 2014 similar bill, also proposed by the PSD.

Also, BE makes a U-turn about the new Basic Heathcare law and proposes that public-private partnerships should be out of the new bill:

The new Basic Heathcare law was doomed to fail, but today, BE announced that they are willing to support the new law if public-private partnerships (PPP) are written off from the bill. The BE says this move would save the new bill and answers some of the PS main pleas. The ball is now in the hands of the PS, as they have been pleading for the leftwing parties to vote in favour of their bill.

[Mike88]

A bit late, but here's the voter demographics from the RTP's exit poll for the EP elections:

Women: 53%
Men: 47%

18-24: 8%
25-34: 10%
35-44: 17%
45-54: 21%
55-64: 18%
65+: 26%

College degree: 52%
High School degree: 34%
No High School degree: 14%

Women:

33.6% PS
21.6% PSD
11.3% BE
  6.4% CDS
  6.1% PAN
  5.8% CDU
15.1% Others/Invalid

Men:

33.1% PS
22.2% PSD
  8.1% BE
  8.1% CDU
  6.0% CDS
  4.0% PAN
18.5% Others/Invalid

18-24 year old's:

22.2% PS
17.2% PSD
13.9% PAN
  9.9% BE
  6.6% CDS
  4.6% CDU
25.5% Others/Invalid

25-34 year old's:

18.9% PS
17.9% PSD
13.7% BE
11.2% PAN
  7.0% CDS
  5.5% CDU
25.9% Others/Invalid

35-44 year old's:

26.0% PS
20.9% PSD
12.1% BE
  7.3% PAN
  7.0% CDU
  6.7% CDS
20.0% Others/Invalid

45-54 year old's:

25.1% PS
24.6% PSD
10.8% BE
  8.5% CDS
  7.7% CDU
  4.4% PAN
18.9% Others/Invalid

55-64 year old's:

38.0% PS
22.1% PSD
11.3% BE
  5.9% CDU
  5.9% CDS
  2.4% PAN
14.3% Others/Invalid

65+ year old's:

50.2% PS
23.4% PSD
  8.0% CDU
  5.1% BE
  3.8% CDS
  1.1% PAN
  8.4% Others/Invalid

Voters with a college degree:

24.9% PS
24.2% PSD
11.6% BE
  8.3% CDS
  6.0% CDU
  6.0% PAN
19.1% Others/Invalid

Voters with a high school degree:

37.4% PS
20.2% PSD
  8.5% BE
  8.2% CDU
  4.9% PAN
  4.5% CDS
16.3% Others/Invalid

Voters with no high school degree:

54.8% PS
17.9% PSD
  6.7% CDU
  6.6% BE
  2.8% CDS
  2.1% PAN
  9.0% Others/Invalid

Exit poll conducted on 26 May 2019. Polled 3,931 voters as they left the polling stations.

*I was going to post this on the EP elections forum, but I think, right now, it's more interesting to discuss it here due to the clues it can give us for the fall general elections.

[VPH]

I would have expected CDU to do best with those without high school! I kind of associate them with older, rural folks in the Alentejo.

[Mike88]

I would have expected CDU to do best with those without high school! I kind of associate them with older, rural folks in the Alentejo.

They are still the 3rd largest party in that category. Nonetheless, it's interesting to see that if you have a higher school degree, you're more likely to vote PSD, and if you have a low school degree, you're more likely to vote PS. Also interesting it's the HUGE support PS has among elder voters, in contrast with younger and middle age voters, where in some ages, PS basically ties with PSD.

Adding to the exit poll data, here's the parish map of the EP elections in Portugal: (made by myself)

[Former President tack50]

I would have expected CDU to do best with those without high school! I kind of associate them with older, rural folks in the Alentejo.

They are still the 3rd largest party in that category. Nonetheless, it's interesting to see that if you have a higher school degree, you're more likely to vote PSD, and if you have a low school degree, you're more likely to vote PS. Also interesting it's the HUGE support PS has among elder voters, in contrast with younger and middle age voters, where in some ages, PS basically ties with PSD.

Adding to the exit poll data, here's the parish map of the EP elections in Portugal: (made by myself)

Wow, that is a really nice map, thank you! It must have taken you a ton of time to complete (I certainly can't imagine doing a parish map like that myself)

It also seems PS won a landslide. Beyond that I can't really get any "weird" things in the map, looks like a fairly standard Portuguese election map for a PS landslide.

Come to think about it, why didn't PSD win any parishes around Porto or Lisbon? I would have expected your usual "rich suburbs" to vote for them?

And what's with the CDU parish right south of Lisboa on the other side of the bay?

[Mike88]

Wow, that is a really nice map, thank you! It must have taken you a ton of time to complete (I certainly can't imagine doing a parish map like that myself)

It also seems PS won a landslide. Beyond that I can't really get any "weird" things in the map, looks like a fairly standard Portuguese election map for a PS landslide.

Come to think about it, why didn't PSD win any parishes around Porto or Lisbon? I would have expected your usual "rich suburbs" to vote for them?

And what's with the CDU parish right south of Lisboa on the other side of the bay?

Thanks! Actually, it wasn't that hard and it only took me about 2 hours to make it. Observador newspaper was a big help as it has the colour of the winner by parish in a map: https://observador.pt/interativo/resultados-e-mapa-completos-das-eleicoes-europeias-2019/#/

The PS won, by a landslide, you're right, more because of the car crash result of the PSD than of their actual result. In fact, the PS only won around 70,000 more votes than 2014, and in terms of percentage points, they got just above their 2015 score and less than 2% more of what they got in 2014. The PSD result was really bad, as the map proves it. Like in 2014, the center-right electorate was deeply frustrated and didn't bother to show up to vote. The teachers crisis had an effect, no doubt. The PS didn't win many votes from it, but many center-right voters preferred to stay home rather than to vote for any option. Nonetheless, some PSD voters may have voted PAN in the elections.

The PSD, like always, performed well in the most affluent parishes around, and within, Porto and Lisbon cities, but their strength was considerably lower this time around. In the map, that tiny, tiny orange spot in Porto city is Foz do Douro parish, where many rich families from Porto city live, and in the Lisbon area, the PSD won the very affluent Cascais city parish, where the mansions of the country's richest families are located. But, the PSD didn't do quite well in many rich parishes in Lisbon city. In parishes like Estrela and Avenidas Novas, where a lot of upper middle class families live, the PSD was neck and neck with PS mostly because the CDS was quite strong. If you add PSD+CDS in these parishes, they have basically the same votes and % of 2014, while the PS, although ahead this time around, is a bit down compared with 2014. So, the fact PSD and CDS ran separately hurt them a lot, as their electorate was deeply demoralized.

That CDU parish, in Lisbon's south bank, is from Moita municipality, a traditional CDU stronghold. However, in this election, CDU was demolished in Moita, as it lost 15% of the votes, and saw the PS increase almost 10%. In 2014, CDU won all parishes in Moita, by a big margin, but this year they were only able to hold on to one parish, and even that one by a very slim margin.

[Mike88]

Police raids in city halls due to corruption actions are the main headline in the last few days:

In the last few days, 18 city halls in the North and Center regions were raided by the police due to suspicion of corrupt actions. A total of 18 city halls, 9 from the PSD, 7 from the PS, 1 from CDS and 1 from an Independent movement, were visited by the police and DA officers to investigate possible corrupt practices in giving contracts, without the due process, to a major bus company. The main focus was Guarda city hall, PSD controlled, where the former mayor, Álvaro Amaro, is suspect of several corruption actions. Mr Amado was elected an MEP in the May elections, and is one of Rui Rio's strongest allies in the PSD.

The mayor of Barcelos, Miguel Costa Gomes (PS), is also being pressured to resign as he's in house arrest due to a corruption investigation involving him, the mayor of Santo Tirso, also from the PS, and his wife. Mr Costa Gomes hasn't resigned yet, but pleas innocence and says he's willing to resign, but for now, he will only ask to be substituted in office by a short period of time. Opposition parties in Barcelos city council, PSD, CDS, CDU, BE and Independents, are asking for a by-election.