Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[gespb19]

Agree with the above, and will add that reports are that 42 is doing poorly among voters in Rankin.

Well that blows, but Romney and McCain both broke 75% there, so 42 could lose handily there but still run well ahead of the Democratic baseline.

It could end up being false, this is coming from a CL writer on Twitter FWIW.

[Del Tachi]

Anti-42 vote totals will also be running-up quite significantly in Oktibbeha, Lafayette, and Forrest Counties.  These aren't insignificant population centers, and these areas' dependence on higher-ed makes them especially weary of the budget implications of 42.

Mississippi State Extension Service has been telling their employees that passage of 42 means a 45% cut in FY 2016 budgets.  They've already announced a delay of raises contingent on 42's outcome.  45% cut?  That's probably a bit overblown, but that type of fear-mongering among the State's IHLs is exactly what needs to happen in order to defeat 42.   

I haven't heard much about Starkville, but I thought Oxford was ground zero for pro-42 politics?

Oxford has more nuanced "town and gown" relations than Starkville or Hattiesburg.  I don't think there's overlap between the big pro-42 people in Oxford and the TSUN big-wigs.  Ole Miss has always been, nominally, more liberal than MSU or USM, but MSU and USM's nominal political influence is probably larger (they have more employees). 

[kansasdemocrat]

Any guesses on how long it takes the worst board of elections in the nation to report votes?

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't understand that ballot measure at all. Its so vague and the corresponding measure just makes it ridiculous.

[gespb19]

Any guesses on how long it takes the worst board of elections in the nation to report votes?

Mississippi has no statewide election board that I'm aware of. The individual counties send their results in to Jackson/SOS who then reports it.

[gespb19]

My final predictions for all 174 legislative races

House: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GQqfDaAOeviyYURK4LpFpGCr0WxyiUWFjXMxrZppfSQ/edit?usp=docslist_api

Senate: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bzQrna6lzMbBQDkTjnQSWBRxscVeuj32KA2bOHh83Zc/edit?usp=docslist_api

[7,052,770]

I don't understand that ballot measure at all. Its so vague and the corresponding measure just makes it ridiculous.

Currently, the legislature is required by law to fund public education in Mississippi adequately. There is a formula (MAEP) that defines "adequate." Even though it's the law, the legislature has only met the required funding level twice in 20 years. That's allowed since the Mississippi Constitution gives the legislature the final say in what education funding will be. No one can take the legislature to Court, even though our schools (among the worst in America) are continually underfunded.

Initiative 42 allows the chancery court system the jurisdiction to review education funding decisions to make sure they follow the law. If the legislature continues to underfund education, there will be lawsuits.

Initiative 42A is a trick initiative which has similar wording, but still leaves the final decision in the hands of the legislature -- no judicial review. There's no real reason to pass it because it doesn't really change anything. It's just another hurdle to prevent 42 from passing.

To pass, "Yes" must beat "No", "42" must beat "42A", and "42" must be selected on at least 40% of the total ballots statewide. This could be an issue if a lot of people don't understand and leave the second question blank.

[kansasdemocrat]

Given what we've just seen in Kentucky, Jim Hood is probably going to lose.

[gespb19]

Gotta feeling something crazy is going to happen tonight (either Dems take the House, Hood loses, or 42 passes).

[kansasdemocrat]

Gotta feeling something crazy is going to happen tonight (either Dems take the House, Hood loses, or 42 passes).

Hood is going to lose. Possibly by double digits. It's already a very bad election night in the red states.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm skeptical of Hood losing, but I can definitely see it happening after Kentucky. That's the only way this could get worse for Democrats.

[kansasdemocrat]

I'm skeptical of Hood losing, but I can definitely see it happening after Kentucky. That's the only way this could get worse for Democrats.

Well it's Mississippi so we probably won't have any results until Friday

[Bacon King]

no results yet?

[kansasdemocrat]

no results yet?

It's Mississippi, maybe next week...

[ElectionsGuy]

Seriously?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bryant only ahead 50-48!

[kansasdemocrat]

LOL 1 precinct in Jasper County is in...

Jim Hood leads 67-33

Bryant leads 50-48

make of that what you will lol
 

54% Obama 12' county

72% Hood '11 county

[gespb19]

Jasper County also had the first precinct reported in the primary.

[gespb19]

Cottonmouth says Bain won HD2.

[kansasdemocrat]

Another precinct reports in Simpson County

Hood leads 77-23

Gray leads 61-36


Hood only over performing Gray by 16...

RIP Hood

[ElectionsGuy]

Another precinct reports in Simpson County

Hood leads 77-23

Gray leads 61-36


Hood only over performing Gray by 16...

RIP Hood

As long as blacks are at least 30% of the electorate, Hood should win even with that.

[kansasdemocrat]

Another precinct reports in Simpson County

Hood leads 77-23

Gray leads 61-36


Hood only over performing Gray by 16...

RIP Hood

As long as blacks are at least 30% of the electorate, Hood should win even with that.

That means Gray has to get at least 34% of the vote...unlikely...

[7,052,770]

Another precinct reports in Simpson County

Hood leads 77-23

Gray leads 61-36


Hood only over performing Gray by 16...

RIP Hood

As long as blacks are at least 30% of the electorate, Hood should win even with that.

That means Gray has to get at least 34% of the vote...unlikely...

No, that's almost certain. Gray didn't run any worse of a campaign than Johnny Dupree did 4 years ago. (Dupree lost 61-39)

[kansasdemocrat]

Anybody running maps of the MS results?

[ElectionsGuy]

County map sources?