Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

42A seems ridiculous. So if there's n enforcement why clutter the constitution with it? Decoration?

[DINGO Joe]

Has the Kemper power plant been an issue beyond the PSC races, or are voters resigned to being screwed?

[gespb19]

42A seems ridiculous. So if there's n enforcement why clutter the constitution with it? Decoration?

42A was just something the Legislature added to the ballot in hopes that it would confuse the hell out of the voters and make the initiative harder to pass. Simple as that.

Has the Kemper power plant been an issue beyond the PSC races, or are voters resigned to being screwed?

Definitely a big deal in the PSC races. Mississippi Power is giving $350 million in refunds to customers but I think a rate increase may still be on the table. Democrats could actually win all 3 PSC seats. Presley should win in the North district, Cecil Brown has a shot in the Central district, and Tom Blanton has a real chance in the South district. Blanton was the one who filed the case to the state Supreme Court that required Mississippi Power to refund customers, otherwise he would have no chance. Most people concede that he is "crazy as a loon" (not my words!) but are voting for him because he fought to stop the rate increase.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We're just two days away from the general election in Mississippi. Contested Statewide Races are as follows:

Agriculture Commissioner:

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R, inc.)
Addie Green (D)
Cathy Toole (Reform)

Attorney General:

Jim Hood (D, inc.)
Mike Hurst (R)

Auditor:

Stacey Pickering (R, inc.)
Jocelyn Pritchett (D)
Lajena Walley (Reform)

Governor:

Phil Bryant (R, inc.)
Robert Gray (D)
Shawn O'Hara (Reform)

Lt. Governor:

Tate Reeves (R, inc.)
Tim Johnson (D)
Ron Williams (L)
Rosa Williams (Reform)

Secretary of State:

Delbert Hosemann (R, inc.)
Charles Graham (D)
Randy Walker (Reform)

Treasurer:

Lynn Fitch (R, inc.)
Viola McFarland (Reform)

There will also be an education funding amendment on the ballot. Local races include elections of public service and transportation commissioners, along with all the seats in the state house and senate.

Anyone think Hood will finally fall, or expect one or more of the republican incumbents to fail to have a double digit margin of victory or actually lose?

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

68.7% Bryant
30.1% Gray
  1.2% O'Hara

[Talleyrand]

Hood will lose by almost 10 points. All the other offices will go heavily, heavily Republican.

[windjammer]

Hood will survive.

Republicans will pick up house seats but that won't be enough to gain the supermajority.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hood will lose by almost 10 points. All the other offices will go heavily, heavily Republican.

lol

AG: Likely D
Everything Else: Safe R

[7,052,770]

Predictions:

Bryant 63-36
Reeves 61-38
Hosemann 63-36
Hood 54-46
Pickering 58-42

D/R +0 in the Senate after Dems knock off 1 of Tollison and Clarke (all other incumbents survive)
D/R +0 in the House (not really sure which, but seems like a reasonable baseline)

42:  Yes wins 55-45, and "42" barely meets the 40% threshold

[Del Tachi]

My Ballot:

Governor:  Phil Brant (R, inc.)
Lieutenant Governor:  Tim Johnson (D)
Secretary of State:  Delbert Hosemann (R, inc.)
Attorney General:  Jim Hood (D, inc.)
State Treasurer:  Lynn Fitch (R, inc.)
State Auditor:  Stacey E. Pickering (R, inc.)
Insurance Commissioner:  Mike Cheney (R, inc.)
Agricultural Commissioner:  Cindy Hyde-Smith (R, inc.)

Public Service Commissioner, Northern District:  Brandon Presley (D, inc.)
Transportation Commissioner, Northern District:  Mike Tagert (R, inc.)

State House, District 43:  Paul Millsaps (D)
State Senate, District 15:  Cecil Simmons (D)

Ballot Measure 42: NO on Question 1; "42A" on Question 2

Bolded candidates are the ones I think will win, which just so happens to correspond with incumbents in my case.  There are some interesting county/local races happening in my area, but I'm not going to bore y'all with them.

I think the vote on 42 will be very close, but I think "No" will carry the first question somewhere around 52-48. 

I'll pick Childers to best Tracy Arnold; Hob Bryan should hold-on but it might be very close.   

[gespb19]

My ballot

Governor: Robert Gray (D)
Lt Governor: Tim Johnson (D)
SOS: Delbert Hosemann (R)
AG: Jim Hood (D)
Treasurer: Lynn Fitch (R)
Auditor: Jocelyn Pritchett (D)
Ag Commish: Addie Green (D)
Insurance Commish: Mike Chaney (R)

PSC South: Tom Blanton (D)
Transportation Commish South: Tom King (R)

HD102: Toby Barker (R)
SD45: Eli Jackson (Reform)

Init42: 1) Yes, 2) 42

[gespb19]

Didn't know Bryan had a tough race, figured he was popular up there.

[Del Tachi]

Any updates on the disgusting Initiative 42 shenanigans?  Do most expect passage or failure under the new rules?

Most politicos I talk to expect failure.  The GOP/Higher Education machine in the state really has done a good job of defining the campaign, and I think it'll pay dividends tomorrow.

Thank God. 

[gespb19]

MC Hammer endorsed 42 via Twitter today, which is awesome.

[CountyTy90]

Any specific website where I can watch results coming in? Will CNN be doing any coverage?

[gespb19]

Any specific website where I can watch results coming in? Will CNN be doing any coverage?

AP will have something tomorrow, I'm sure. MPB Think Radio will be on the air tomorrow night discussing the election, and their coverage is typically very good.

[CountyTy90]

Any specific website where I can watch results coming in? Will CNN be doing any coverage?

AP will have something tomorrow, I'm sure. MPB Think Radio will be on the air tomorrow night discussing the election, and their coverage is typically very good.

Any TV stations online that will be hosting results?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls will close at 8 PM EST Tonight

AP Results here - http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/MS_Page_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[gespb19]

Under the radar election: Stone County (pop. 18,000) is voting on liquor.

[7,052,770]

A few things to watch for:

• 42 will live or die on the backs of white Republicans in Desoto, Rankin, Madison, Harrison, etc., counties: well-to-do people who send their kids to public schools. The same people who voted down Personhood 4 years ago. If you see 42 failing in those counties, it's probably over.
• In order to have any chance, Mike Hurst needs to win the counties in Northeast Mississippi that Obama couldn't get 40% in, but Hood has always won. Counties like Lee, Pontotoc, Union, Tippah, Alcorn, Tishomingo, Prentiss, Itawamba, etc. If Hood is winning those counties early, you can be assured of his reelection. If Hurst wins those counties, it's going to get interesting.

[gespb19]

Agree with the above, and will add that reports are that 42 is doing poorly among voters in Rankin.

[Del Tachi]

Anti-42 vote totals will also be running-up quite significantly in Oktibbeha, Lafayette, and Forrest Counties.  These aren't insignificant population centers, and these areas' dependence on higher-ed makes them especially weary of the budget implications of 42.

Mississippi State Extension Service has been telling their employees that passage of 42 means a 45% cut in FY 2016 budgets.  They've already announced a delay of raises contingent on 42's outcome.  45% cut?  That's probably a bit overblown, but that type of fear-mongering among the State's IHLs is exactly what needs to happen in order to defeat 42.   

[7,052,770]

Agree with the above, and will add that reports are that 42 is doing poorly among voters in Rankin.

Well that blows, but Romney and McCain both broke 75% there, so 42 could lose handily there but still run well ahead of the Democratic baseline.

[7,052,770]

Anti-42 vote totals will also be running-up quite significantly in Oktibbeha, Lafayette, and Forrest Counties.  These aren't insignificant population centers, and these areas' dependence on higher-ed makes them especially weary of the budget implications of 42.

Mississippi State Extension Service has been telling their employees that passage of 42 means a 45% cut in FY 2016 budgets.  They've already announced a delay of raises contingent on 42's outcome.  45% cut?  That's probably a bit overblown, but that type of fear-mongering among the State's IHLs is exactly what needs to happen in order to defeat 42.   

I haven't heard much about Starkville, but I thought Oxford was ground zero for pro-42 politics?

[gespb19]

I know Rodney Bennett at USM basically came out and encouraged USM folks to vote against 42 and I'm pretty sure Keenum at MSU was quoted saying something similar to State supporters.

I'm unsure if passing 42 will lead to anything positive, but was disappointed in the tactics used by the anti 42 people so I voted for it.