Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[smoltchanov]

10% is probably the basement, I think even a Bernie Sanders type would do better than Obama (he voted against the Brady Bill 20 years ago!). Statewide and legislative races are another story.

Still - what do you think about that article? Are Democrats REALLY in such big hole in this year legislative elections?

[gespb19]

Well in the race that the article is about, I think Childers wins. But the GOP should still retain the chamber, I stand by my prediction that their numbers will be something in the high 60s after the elections in November. The Democrats do have a slim chance at taking back the House (maybe 10%), if everything goes right.

[smoltchanov]

Well in the race that the article is about, I think Childers wins. But the GOP should still retain the chamber, I stand by my prediction that their numbers will be something in the high 60s after the elections in November. The Democrats do have a slim chance at taking back the House (maybe 10%), if everything goes right.

Thanks! I hope to see a detailed list with predictions for specific districts (like those you did in summer) closer to election day...

[gespb19]

I will try to do that, but yes will wait until Election Day is closer.

[7,052,770]

Well, one of the Republican representatives just pulled a Kevin McCarthy:

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http://t.co/0D9039d0eZ

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Well, one of the Republican representatives just pulled a Kevin McCarthy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://t.co/0D9039d0eZ

BREAKING: People in Mississippi are racist.

[gespb19]

Well, one of the Republican representatives just pulled a Kevin McCarthy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://t.co/0D9039d0eZ

BREAKING: People in Mississippi are racist.

Good one!!!11!!11

[gespb19]

When you see the Anti42 commercials talk about a "liberal Hinds County Judge", most people know they mean "black Hinds County judge". Carpenter's comments are certainly offensive, but it's not much different that what the GOP has been doing during the entire Init42 campaign.

[windjammer]

What will be the likely result of this initiative?

[gespb19]

What will be the likely result of this initiative?

Probably will fail.

[7,052,770]

BREAKING: People in Mississippi are racist.

Meh, Republicans all over the country make openly racist comments like this. It's hardly confined to Mississippi or even to the South.

What will be the likely result of this initiative?

Haven't seen any polls (seriously, where the Hell is PPP, especially after all the recent flag controversy? Too busy snickering at Deez Nuts?), but my best guess is that it passes.

Black people seem to actually be fired up for voting on this, and I would expect rich and middle-class suburban whites (at least those who send their kids to public school) to vote for it too, similar to the Personhood initiative from 2011.

[gespb19]

The alternate wording is going to make this hard to pass, IMO. RethinkMS had a good article on this: http://www.rethinkms.org/2015/01/13/legislatures-alternative-language-school-funding-initiative/

BTW, the precinct results for this will be interesting. I'm looking forward to seeing how it breaks down in the white NE Jackson boxes where most people send their kids to private school. Same goes for the white precincts in the Delta.

[smoltchanov]

Guys, with 2 weeks remaining before election, isn't it a good time for final report about state of state legislative races (with predictions)? Like those made by gespb19 sometime in August, if i remember correctly?

[gespb19]

I'll come up with something in the next few days and will post it on here.

[smoltchanov]

I'll come up with something in the next few days and will post it on here.

Thanks in advance!

[gespb19]

My election preview: https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/10/22/mississippi-elections-preview/

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My election preview: https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/10/22/mississippi-elections-preview/

Nice!

[smoltchanov]

My election preview: https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/10/22/mississippi-elections-preview/

Excellent! Exactly what i needed. Starting to read in details. Thanks!

P.S. Studied a little. Well, as much as i can deduce from Internet information - generally agree, though i am slightly less bullish on Democratic chances (about 1 seat in Senate, and 2 - in House). But, as i am almost always root for Democrats in states like Mississippi - would like to be too pessimistic and see a better (for Democrats) results. One question - you mentioned some candidates as "conservative Democrats". Am i correct to think that it's mostly on social issues, and less so on economy, transport, education, agriculture and similar issues (as was typical for "old school" Southern populists)?

[gespb19]

Yes, more conservative on social issues compared to economy, education, general fiscal policy, etc

[smoltchanov]

Yes, more conservative on social issues compared to economy, education, general fiscal policy, etc

That's why they, probably, remain a Democrats. Otherwise they would be non-distinguishable  from typical Republicans (who may be (sometimes) less conservative, then they are, on social issues (at least - relatively well-to-do suburban types), but not on these one...). And i think THAT type of former Democrats already switched completely... Though the last one (like Bounds, Smith, Mettetal, Browning, White) - only recently.

Thanks!

[7,052,770]

I don't think anyone's going to vote for 42A. I haven't seen any ads, billboards, mailers, etc., saying to do so -- it's all "VOTE NO ON BOTH!!!" I think most No voters will probably just leave the 42/42A question blank.

If Yes can get the majority on the first question (and I have no idea how to predict that, other than I think most Mississippians think more education funding is a good idea), I think 42 will beat 42A.

[gespb19]

45 people were given a sample ballot for 42, only 4 were able to fill it out correctly: http://hechingerreport.org/state-of-confusion-mississippians-baffled-over-upcoming-school-funding-vote/

[Ebsy]

45 people were given a sample ballot for 42, only 4 were able to fill it out correctly: http://hechingerreport.org/state-of-confusion-mississippians-baffled-over-upcoming-school-funding-vote/

Further evidence that Mississippi Republicans are scum.

[7,052,770]

I think that article is a little overblown. I think more than 9% of Mississippians can read explicit instructions to vote for one out of "Yes" and "No" and one out of 42 and 42A.

[7,052,770]

I do think it's likely that most "No" voters will leave the second question blank, as no one is campaigning on "No but also 42A!!!"

Because of that, I don't think 42A will get many votes at all, definitely not enough to outvote 42. The only questions are can "Yes" get 50% of the vote, and will most people who vote "Yes" also remember to mark the second question.