Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[Frodo]

Given the 2015 statewide elections are only an election cycle away, I have to ask:

How is the state legislature looking, especially in the wake of GOP redistricting a couple of years ago or so?

Here is the current makeup:

House

Republicans: 67
Democrats: 55

Senate

Republicans: 32
Democrats: 20

[smoltchanov]

If I had to guess, the Senate will stay about the same as the Dixiecrats are gone and everyone is packed into neatly gerrymandered districts.  The Republicans gain around 10 seats in the House with the new lines, but the number of black Democrats goes up too.

So, the Democratic caucus will be (with few exceptions) a Black caucus? The same gradually happens in Alabama, Louisiana and some other states.

[Miles]

So, the Democratic caucus will be (with few exceptions) a Black caucus? The same gradually happens in Alabama, Louisiana and some other states.

2011 was the first time white legislators were a minority of the Democratic caucus.

[smoltchanov]

2011 was the first time white legislators were a minority of the Democratic caucus.

I know. And they will be smaller and smaller minoriy with each next election

[windjammer]

After all, blacks are increasing their numbers in Mississippi!

[smoltchanov]

After all, blacks are increasing their numbers in Mississippi!

But they are 37% (or about that) of population and 55-60% (can count precisely, but approximately so) of Democratic caucus. Not exactly the same numbers))))

[Vega]

Thank you!

It looks like Brandon Presley might run for Governor.

[LeBron]

Unfortunately, I think Bryant will run for re-election and if he does, he's pretty much guaranteed. He's actually younger than I thought (59) and is like any typical far-right conservative by denying his state Medicaid coverage and trying to close down the last abortion clinic in the state, so I don't see why anyone would challenge him from his right. 

IIRC, the Attorney General of Mississippi isn't term-limited, so if I were Jim Hood, I would just run for another term in 2015 and hold out until 2019 when Bryant's forced to step down. Presley could run if he wanted to, but I don't see him running either and I think MS Dems will probably end up with a State Rep running. At least that way, Democrats can put more focus on holding KY and trying to win LA.

[Vega]

Unfortunately, I think Bryant will run for re-election and if he does, he's pretty much guaranteed. He's actually younger than I thought (59) and is like any typical far-right conservative by denying his state Medicaid coverage and trying to close down the last abortion clinic in the state, so I don't see why anyone would challenge him from his right. 

IIRC, the Attorney General of Mississippi isn't term-limited, so if I were Jim Hood, I would just run for another term in 2015 and hold out until 2019 when Bryant's forced to step down. Presley could run if he wanted to, but I don't see him running either and I think MS Dems will probably end up with a State Rep running. At least that way, Democrats can put more focus on holding KY and trying to win LA.

Yeah, this is where I'm at. If in 2015, Dems pick up Louisiana (a feat that's not entirely impossible), and hold Kentucky, it will be a good day.

If a Democrat get's 40% in Mississippi, that would be great too.

[smoltchanov]

Well, 40% is, really, almost always a guarantee... The problem is that 45% is almost always (Hood is exception) a ceiling as of late.

State legislative elections will be interesting too. Republicans can get supermajority in state Senate, but, most likely, not in the House...

[TX Conservative Dem]

I think Bryant wins reelection in 2015, getting 62% against a weak Democratic nominee for the governorship.

On Jim Hood: he's better off going for reelection as State AG , wait until 2019 to seek the governorship and hopefully win it for the MS Democrats, who are very desperate to win the governorship.

[7,052,770]

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2014/05/14/personhood-ballot-deadline/9100271/

It's official: Personhood will NOT be on the ballot again in 2015. Too bad -- I was looking forward to another right-wing meltdown...

[TX Conservative Dem]

What about the other down ballot statewide offices?

[Del Tachi]

I've heard unsubstantiated rumors that Delbert Hosemann will be challenging Tate Reeves for the Lt. Governor nomination next year, and Parker Wiseman will run as a Democrat against Lynn Fitch for State Treasurer. 

[Del Tachi]

Geoff Pender on how the Cochran/McDaniel dichotomy will affect statewide elections in 2015.

Bryant will be rolled out a red carpet on his way to a second-term, the interesting races/primaries will be further down ballot.  '

I doubt McDaniel goes for a statewide office, and he probably declines reelection the State Senate as well.  The political futures of Michael Watson and Melanie Sojourner will be what plays out next year.  Sojourner probably retires from the Senate like McDaniel will, but I think Watson will go for a statewide office.

The Democratic field is quite fluid right now, and if Jim Hood decides to retire it will be disasterous for them.  If Travis Childers runs a respectably close campaign against Thad Cochran then I guess he could plot a comeback in 2015.   

[Dixie Reborn]

What are the chances of Watson primarying (or attempting to primary) Bryant?
Also, does/should McDaniel seek statewide office (such as AG) and what would his chances be?

[NHLiberal]

What are the chances of Watson primarying (or attempting to primary) Bryant?
Also, does/should McDaniel seek statewide office (such as AG) and what would his chances be?

I'd guess Watson primaries Reeves

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PPP: Bryant would defeat Hood 44-33, Presley 49-26
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/07/mississippi-miscellany.html

[Del Tachi]

Bryant is practically indestructible.  He has both Tea Party and establishment support and, according to PPP at least, not even Hood can touch him.  We won't be seeing Tea Partiers or Democrats making a play for the Governor's Mansion next year.

Watson probably primaries Reeves, but so will Hosemann.  In a massive embarrassment to the MS Tea Party, Watson won't even make the runoff.  Mark my words. 

[Adam Griffin]

Former Republican state Sen. Tim Johnson on Wednesday announced he’s switching parties and challenging incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves this year.

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http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2015/02/04/former-gop-senator-switches-parties-challenges-lt-gov/22882703/
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/why-mississippi-republican-now-democrat?cid=sm_fb_maddow

[Maxwell]

We'll see how this goes, but this dude is moving in the wrong direction. We'll see if that is a move of three dimensional chess or poor political intuition.

[Miles]

Congrats, MS Dems!

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[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Correct me If I'm wrong, but he's successful because MS doesn't list R and D on the ballot, right?

[ElectionsGuy]

He'll probably win re-election, but I never knew why is he popular enough to get elected. Is he a clone of Gene Taylor or something?

[gespb19]

He'll probably win re-election, but I never knew why is he popular enough to get elected. Is he a clone of Gene Taylor or something?

Hood is a little left of Taylor, but he is against abortion and gun control, which gives him enough of the white evangelical vote to win fairly comfortably. Would think he wins easily again in November.