2020 New York Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Weren't oral arguments today? Did anyone watch, and if so what were the takeaways?

Enjoy. Skimmed through it, hard to tell.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ReporterMarina/status/1517512193092296706

case on Tuesday.

[lfromnj]

What I find somewhat ridiculous about this is that the Dems passed a really ugly gerrymander, but they could easily have passed a pretty map serving the same purpose, for example

In which a few seats could be vulnerable in a bad year (18th and 20th are Biden+8, 19th is Biden+13, 22nd is Biden+11) but on the other hand the 23rd would be a potential pickup (only Trump+2).

Something like that surely wouldn't have been prone to a court strike-down and would generally have functioned as a 22-4 map anyway- but instead the Dems decided to go for ridiculous stuff like the 24th's narrow snake shape, the 19th's protrusions into Utica and Vestal, etc, all for the relatively small gain of incumbents being shored up a bit more. May backfire if the courts do feel inclined to strike it down.

Right, a normal person looking at this map would say it is fair. In fact tbh I would say it is within the realm of fair - anything that is close to maximally compact that follows county lines I’m ok with, and the legislature gets to decide which party the map advantages within those bounds. NYS should pass the most D-favored map possible that looks fairly clean, just like OH should pass the most R favored map under those same restrictions.

As a Dem, this is what part of what gets me annoyed about our gerrymanders.

They’re often unnecessarily messy (IL, NY, MD, MA, ect) when the GOP is able to create very effective gerrymanders that are harder to argue against because they’re clean (FL) and it’s not necessarily because of Geography

I mean Ohio had pretty ugly maps. The simple answer is DeSantis as a super powerful governor rather than a state legislator is effectively able to do whatever he wants with the maps as all the incumbents can't cry upto their local legislators without drawing the ire of the most powerful governor in the entire nation. Roy Barnes did the same in 2001 and he managed to bully out a 30 year speaker of the house

[lfromnj]

What I find somewhat ridiculous about this is that the Dems passed a really ugly gerrymander, but they could easily have passed a pretty map serving the same purpose, for example

In which a few seats could be vulnerable in a bad year (18th and 20th are Biden+8, 19th is Biden+13, 22nd is Biden+11) but on the other hand the 23rd would be a potential pickup (only Trump+2).

Something like that surely wouldn't have been prone to a court strike-down and would generally have functioned as a 22-4 map anyway- but instead the Dems decided to go for ridiculous stuff like the 24th's narrow snake shape, the 19th's protrusions into Utica and Vestal, etc, all for the relatively small gain of incumbents being shored up a bit more. May backfire if the courts do feel inclined to strike it down.

Right, a normal person looking at this map would say it is fair. In fact tbh I would say it is within the realm of fair - anything that is close to maximally compact that follows county lines I’m ok with, and the legislature gets to decide which party the map advantages within those bounds. NYS should pass the most D-favored map possible that looks fairly clean, just like OH should pass the most R favored map under those same restrictions.

As a Dem, this is what part of what gets me annoyed about our gerrymanders.

They’re often unnecessarily messy (IL, NY, MD, MA, ect) when the GOP is able to create very effective gerrymanders that are harder to argue against because they’re clean (FL) and it’s not necessarily because of Geography

That's mostly geography-based, drawing clean looking R gerrymanders is much easier than clean looking D ones. Also while the MA map is messy looking it's not really a gerrymander, any fair and clean looking map there would still result in a 9-0 D majority, so who knows what those people were thinking.

One consideration in Massachusetts was shoring up Neal against future primary challenges from the left, which is why McGovern's district got extended further into the heavily Berniecrat Hill Towns in the western parts of Hampshire and Franklin Counties.

Also they split up the Portugese towns. Regarding the 1st point the main purpose is primary gerrymandering although it does coincidentally prevent even a slightly competitive D seat.

[lfromnj]

The worst bit imo of that Republican map is the weird trans-Jamaica bay configuration of NY-04. Pretty silly to have Coney Island in a district with the Five Towns, though I suppose you could make a bong smoke argument for a Jewish CoI.

In practice a fair NYC is probably going to give you one safe R district and one safe D to Likely D district, depending on where you put the Republican enclaves in Southern Brooklyn. Personally I'm sympathetic to a Dem Staten Island/Republican Brooklyn configuration, since it makes making two Black VRA seats in Brooklyn easier and seems more logically aligned with communities.

The inclusion of Amsterdam in 20 and the retaining of the Velazquez snake are both bad too but they're clearly designed to appeal to judges who will be reluctant to rock the boat with designs that will offend incumbents. Still, if I were them I would at least make 7 into a clearly Latino-dominated seat if possible since you get a good VRA argument out of it.

Upstate is clearly designed to favor Republicans but they don't do anything egregious up there except maybe some of the wonky lines in the Hudson Valley; everything else is just the most plausibly Republican choice of equally good outcomes.

The weird thing is the Hudson Valley is arguably slightly D friendly?

[lfromnj]

The worst bit imo of that Republican map is the weird trans-Jamaica bay configuration of NY-04. Pretty silly to have Coney Island in a district with the Five Towns, though I suppose you could make a bong smoke argument for a Jewish CoI.

In practice a fair NYC is probably going to give you one safe R district and one safe D to Likely D district, depending on where you put the Republican enclaves in Southern Brooklyn. Personally I'm sympathetic to a Dem Staten Island/Republican Brooklyn configuration, since it makes making two Black VRA seats in Brooklyn easier and seems more logically aligned with communities.

The inclusion of Amsterdam in 20 and the retaining of the Velazquez snake are both bad too but they're clearly designed to appeal to judges who will be reluctant to rock the boat with designs that will offend incumbents. Still, if I were them I would at least make 7 into a clearly Latino-dominated seat if possible since you get a good VRA argument out of it.

Upstate is clearly designed to favor Republicans but they don't do anything egregious up there except maybe some of the wonky lines in the Hudson Valley; everything else is just the most plausibly Republican choice of equally good outcomes.

The weird thing is the Hudson Valley is arguably slightly D friendly?

Yeah no clue what the deal with that is. Maybe an attempt to undercut Jones/shore up Maloney (thereby winning over crummy D machine people).

I mean Maloney basically asked for a 23-3 and isn't really part of the NY D machine. I doubt the NY GOP has much love for him. I guess it just makes all 3(NY17/18/19) competitive? The lines are weird and yuck although I still can't see any nefarious intent behind them?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1518969388178759680

[lfromnj]

Well I have not listened to all of the oral argument yet, but I have a prediction.
What do you think that it is?  

I found one of the justices intolerable. Any guesses who that might be?  

Lol it was funny how one was a screen while the rest were in person

Iirc she's unvaccinated

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1519377076666748935

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1519377661470117889

No DeSantismander either for D's.

[lfromnj]

What are options for d's here?

None for 2022 effectively.

[lfromnj]

Dems should appeal to SCOTUS and get them to say it's too late. Don't roll over!

The primary is already delayed by the way, and the NC GOP tried the same.

[lfromnj]

Ouch they even lost on the senate map, which even the "R hack" Stueben County judge didn't strike down. Eerily similar to Florida's 2010 case.

[lfromnj]

Sorry for posting so much in this thread, but Dems need to figure out something ASAP. This is unacceptable!

New York is going to have good and fair maps for 2022 and you're going to have to suck it up!

It had fair maps, the court just struck them down

Well, as we know a snake from the Upper West Side to Borough Park is perfectly fair and rational

Surprisingly that district by in itself could be constitutional under the keeping cores of district together as its there on the current map.  Surprised D's didn't try to pull that argument especially as the current map isn't a gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

This map was so egregious.  If they had drawn a proper, fair, and compact gerrymander like Florida they would have gotten away with it.  Nobody to blame but themselves for getting so greedy.  Hopefully the illegal IL and NC maps are overturned after 2022 and we will be whole again.

lol

[lfromnj]

 The one good thing for Democrats, is that the guy who is drawing the NY maps is the same dude who helped draw the PA legislative maps.


https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/politics/2022/04/20/new-ny-redistricting-special-master-gets-good-reviews-from-pennsylvania-chair

He said Cervas, while not an attorney, has a good grasp of election law and is also skilled technically with the complex software packages available these days. Nordenberg said Cervas is also non-partisan and actively works to avoid partisanship in his map drawing.

ROFL

[lfromnj]

The one good thing for Democrats, is that the guy who is drawing the NY maps is the same dude who drew the PA map.

Oh really? Thank god.
Ok, I take back what I said lol

So he'll be drawing what should be the final map ?

Not necessarily, as the Steuben County judge will get to actually pick the final map but will have to use this dude for consultation.  

The two questions are now,

Is Cervas biased towards Democrats or biased towards partisan fairness?.  If its the latter than a fairly natural map should take place.

If he is biased towards Democrats, how far can he skew the map?

[lfromnj]

Also by the way let's not forget Hochul was dumb enough to leave out a literal paper trail when the NYT asked for that question.

[lfromnj]

The one good thing for Democrats, is that the guy who is drawing the NY maps is the same dude who drew the PA map.

Oh really? Thank god.
Ok, I take back what I said lol

So he'll be drawing what should be the final map ?

Not necessarily, as the Steuben County judge will get to actually pick the final map but will have to use this dude for consultation.  

The two questions are now,

Is Cervas biased towards Democrats or biased towards partisan fairness?.  If its the latter than a fairly natural map should take place.

If he is biased towards Democrats, how far can he skew the map?

OMG, they are actually sending this back to the crazy Steuben County judge? The State Legislature and Governor should 100% ignore this or try to get a different case thrown into a different county.

What exactly is crazy about him? He didn't even find the senate maps a gerrymander unlike the NY Court so he's actually to the left of the NY Court? The only issue with him was his stupid order requiring the legislature craft the maps in a bipartisan sense. Overall he was just some random judge upstate that got shafted with this case. It isn't like federal forum shopping. In the end he even picked a fairly left leaning Special Master.

For all the forumshopping R's did, the one solace D's have is the final map could be bearable.

[lfromnj]

The one good thing for Democrats, is that the guy who is drawing the NY maps is the same dude who drew the PA map.

Oh really? Thank god.
Ok, I take back what I said lol

So he'll be drawing what should be the final map ?

Not necessarily, as the Steuben County judge will get to actually pick the final map but will have to use this dude for consultation.  

The two questions are now,

Is Cervas biased towards Democrats or biased towards partisan fairness?.  If its the latter than a fairly natural map should take place.

If he is biased towards Democrats, how far can he skew the map?

From what I recall, there was a big emphasis based on least change in his PA map. That's partly why we ended up with the suburban fajitas outside Philly. I wonder if we'll see simillar here?

It'll be tricky though since it's harder to pick which district to actually cut upstate and by nature of population change a lot of districts will need to pretty dramatically change

I am talking about the legislative maps by the way.

It's actually really easy in NY to draw least change. Downstate barely changes, and you push Hudson Valley north. Tenney's seat gets cut but Delgado's seat becomes a Trump seat by a few points.

[lfromnj]

The one good thing for Democrats, is that the guy who is drawing the NY maps is the same dude who drew the PA map.

Oh really? Thank god.
Ok, I take back what I said lol

So he'll be drawing what should be the final map ?

Not necessarily, as the Steuben County judge will get to actually pick the final map but will have to use this dude for consultation.  

The two questions are now,

Is Cervas biased towards Democrats or biased towards partisan fairness?.  If its the latter than a fairly natural map should take place.

If he is biased towards Democrats, how far can he skew the map?

From what I recall, there was a big emphasis based on least change in his PA map. That's partly why we ended up with the suburban fajitas outside Philly. I wonder if we'll see simillar here?

It'll be tricky though since it's harder to pick which district to actually cut upstate and by nature of population change a lot of districts will need to pretty dramatically change

I am talking about the legislative maps by the way.

It's actually really easy in NY to draw least change. Downstate barely changes, and you push Hudson Valley north. Tenney's seat gets cut but Delgado's seat becomes a Trump seat by a few points.

Oh mb. I mean his map still split Lancaster in the State Sen so prolly more just the proportionality piece.

There was a lot of other finagling in the state senate map. Dems got a Scrantonmander to get them 2 seats there for example so I don't think he had much influence for the senate map.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1519412232463044613

There we go, finally some state D reaction.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/TheDurhamReport/status/1519393769652690945

lol

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1512835149767008258

We stilll got this atleast?

[lfromnj]

What are the chances Democrats still have the supermajority in 2023? Could they then legislate a new map? Same question if they regain the supermajority in a later year.

Right now the court seems to be 4 Conservatives 1 swing and 2 liberals, and they all voted accordingly. So it's really up when the court flips, IIRC DiFiore is leaving in late 2026 so around for 2028.

[lfromnj]

Who was it who suggested that just because justices have partisan affiliations, to assume that they will go full hack on partisan issues when you get high enough up the judicial food chain is a mistake?

Did you see the accolades I gave you earlier?

https://twitter.com/magajacobrobben/status/1519059711554994180

This guy deserves more.