CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[KingSweden]

6/5 will be the busiest day yet!

[KingSweden]

Just think of all the terrible hot takes we’ll get in June 5th.

It’ll be like Josh Brolin in Sicario:

“What’s the plan?”
“To... dramatically overreact.”

[KingSweden]

I don't think we'll see any R-R or D-D races outside of the PVI+20 districts. Voters are at least somewhat strategic.

Maybe CA-48, but the other two should be fine.

That’s the one I’m slightly concerned about

[KingSweden]

I don't think we'll see any R-R or D-D races outside of the PVI+20 districts. Voters are at least somewhat strategic.

Maybe CA-48, but the other two should be fine.

That’s the one I’m slightly concerned about

Looks like the DCCC agrees

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/999690741302616066

I think it'd be better for them to drop money on Rouda.... why are they attacking Baugh? They could just increase name recognition for him and make Republicans vote for Baugh to spite dems.

Yeah seems like an odd strategy

[KingSweden]

Does anyone think Martha Roby (AL-2) is vulnerable to an upset defeat in the upcoming primary? She's a very weak incumbent, and ran 16 (!) points behind Trump in 2016.

Maybe. I could see Bright being a former Democrat in Congress hurting his upside, however, allowing Robby to tough it out in the end

[KingSweden]

I'll be interested to see who wins the AL-GOV Democratic primary. Sue Bell Cobb has the advantage of having been elected statewide and has staked out a more moderate position, while Maddox is younger, more dynamic, and a little more liberal.

Maddox, I think. He'll have a Jones-esque coalition behind him, and it's not like there are many rural, white Alabama Democrats for Cobb to turn out.

Most of the Democrats I know (rural whites) are supporting Maddox. I know very few people who are voting for Cobb

If you had to guess - how much does Maddox beat Cobb by?

[KingSweden]

Sincere request for tonight: since California results will trickle in for days or weeks and the final results may be very different from tonight's returns, can we please avoid any hot takes based on tonight's returns?

There is a 0 percent chance of that

[KingSweden]

I hear there is rain in NoOC. Blue wave canceled.

RIP anyone at Disneyland today

[KingSweden]

It really is ridiculous/disgraceful that CA can’t count faster

[KingSweden]

It really is ridiculous/disgraceful that CA can’t count faster

Allowing for greater ballot access and flexibility is more important than counting fast, imo.

I don’t disagree, but it shouldn’t take weeks

[KingSweden]

It really is ridiculous/disgraceful that CA can’t count faster

Allowing for greater ballot access and flexibility is more important than counting fast, imo.

I support great ballot access and all, but there's no excuse for CA to take a month to count their ballots.

A more succinct way of making my point

[KingSweden]

Van Drew leading 64-17 in Gloucester county for the NJ-02 D primary. Welp, I was wrong.

As you usually are.

[KingSweden]

Might as well post this:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004210819893284865

Yeeesh

[KingSweden]

Is the combined Republican vote and combined Democratic vote indicative of the November outcome?

It has tended to be reasonably accurate in Washington State.  Of course, that primary is held in September, so, much closer to the general.

This. CA it isn’t necessarily indicative, though it can be.

[KingSweden]

Have I mentioned how good Dave Weigel is?

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1004235736047079425

Why on earth would a dime be spent by anything other than the two candidates for a D vs D runoff?

Labor (not without reason) despises AV

[KingSweden]

Correct and potentially devastating take -->

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/no-democrats-haven-t-shown-they-re-going-win-house-n880516

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I now view the chance of a Democratic flip of the House as less than 30% in my mind. Absolutely no sign that they are replicating Clinton numbers in wealthy, minority heavy, suburban districts that they need to flip.

I can't wait until you promise to leave this forum if Democrats take the House and then less than 24 hours after the election you break that promise.

“What I said was win the House AND WY-Sen and well they only did one so I’m not going.”

[KingSweden]

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/poll-katie-arrington-within-striking-distance-in-race-against-mark/article_3dad21a2-6aca-11e8-a070-ff58f4c3cd13.html

SC-01 Republican Primary
Mark Sanford - 39.7%
Katie Arrington - 39

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.

It’ll give him plenty of time to check out more hiking trails at least

[KingSweden]

If Sanford either loses his primary or emerges wounded from an extremely close race, it would be easy to see a path to victory for Democrats in this seat. The Charleston suburbs might have a good number of votes up for grabs this year.

There was a close race in the 1st District back in 2008, although the lines have shifted quite a bit since then. I could see it being close, doubt it flips.

I think we’re still a few cycles from the 1st being competitive

[KingSweden]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

Outside of razor-thin elections, usually local ones, you'll know the night of who has won in WA. Can't speak for any other ones.

[KingSweden]

If the Dems pick up seats in the specials again in WI, then the odds of winning back the legislature and Governors seat will be very likely.

I think the Assembly would be a stretch, but absolutely the Senate

[KingSweden]

If the Dems pick up seats in the specials again in WI, then the odds of winning back the legislature and Governors seat will be very likely.

I think the Assembly would be a stretch, but absolutely the Senate

It helps that there are more competative seats up during the midterm years, even though I imagine the Dems would love it if SD-24 was back up this year.

*If* Democrats win SD1 tonight - what are reasonable potential results for November?

[KingSweden]

I think the big question for the Wisconsin legislature is the supreme court decision. If they have to redraw the maps before the election, as NC did in 2016, then the door opens for a R trifecta -> D trifecta situation. If not, then the best dems can probably hope for in Wisconsin is the governors race and the Senate.

Mind you, this is a best case scenario for dems, and is requires winning the open seat tonight.

A finding that gerrymandering is unconstitutional by SCOTUS would most likely lead to the case being demanded to the lower court for further proceedings under the guidelines of the ruling.

[KingSweden]

Disgusting, Virginia.  Stewart is a racist and should be forcibly removed from the GOP.

The standard bearer of your party is a racist. You can't escape it.

It's good that EC is willing to say this.  He's a counter example to the popular meme that all Republicans are racists.

[KingSweden]

Dems just barely win the Nevada Senate Turnout Battle:

So, are you postulating that 4 Democrat Senate seats are in grave danger and Heller’ seat is a toss up due to primary turnout?  If so, you have made my day.

Wulfric includes this map for reference - he himself does not regard it as predictive

[KingSweden]

NRSC will not be competing in Virginia:

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1006920668506656768

No surprise there.