CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Gass3268]

Currently a little over one million mail-in ballots have been turned in.
http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

Democrats: 44%
Republicans 33%
No Party Preference: 18%
Other: 4%

A further look at the current numbers shows that Republicans have a turn in advantage in every city in Orange County except Santa Ana, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Seal Beach and Stanton. Buena Park currently is tied percentage wise. Orange County Republicans seem to be motivated to vote. Republicans hold a large advantage in CA-39 (+12), CA-45 (+16) and CA-48 (+11). They hold a narrow margin in CA-49 (+2).

Well, they do have a registration advantage down there. We won't know till the polls close whether those Reps are as loyal to their congressman as they were to Trump in 2016.

This is a good point. It reminds me of AZ-06 where everyone assumed it was a Lesko landslide because of how big the partisan differential was.

[Gass3268]

RRH has a Google Sheet showing the raw data

One thing to note is it appears that the % of voters with no party registration seems to be up.

Also this:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1000049350297440257

[Gass3268]

^is this compared to the 2016 primary vote?

I'm pretty sure it is.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For purposes of Sanity and Time, along with the fact that CA takes forever to count, WULFRIC PROJECTIONS (TM) on June 5 will NOT include California U.S. House races. I will still project the CA Senate and Gov Races.

[Yellowhammer]

Does anyone think Martha Roby (AL-2) is vulnerable to an upset defeat in the upcoming primary? She's a very weak incumbent, and ran 16 (!) points behind Trump in 2016.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For purposes of Sanity and Time, along with the fact that CA takes forever to count, WULFRIC PROJECTIONS (TM) on June 5 will NOT include California U.S. House races. I will still project the CA Senate and Gov Races.

Deeply Disappointing

[KingSweden]

Does anyone think Martha Roby (AL-2) is vulnerable to an upset defeat in the upcoming primary? She's a very weak incumbent, and ran 16 (!) points behind Trump in 2016.

Maybe. I could see Bright being a former Democrat in Congress hurting his upside, however, allowing Robby to tough it out in the end

[Coastal Elitist]

With under a week left until June 5th. Here is the current composition of mail in ballots in California.
12% or 1,404,822 ballots have been returned:

44% Democratic
34% Republican
18% No Party Preference
4% Other

Demographics:
73% White
14% Latino
11% Asian
2% African American

Age:
50% 65 +
27% 50-64
13% 35-49
10% 18-34

[GeorgiaModerate]

With under a week left until June 5th. Here is the current composition of mail in ballots in California.
12% of 1,404,822 ballots have been returned:

44% Democratic
34% Republican
18% No Party Preference
4% Other

Demographics:
73% White
14% Latino
11% Asian
2% African American

Age:
50% 65 +
27% 50-64
13% 35-49
10% 18-34

How does this compare to previous midterms?

[Devout Centrist]

With under a week left until June 5th. Here is the current composition of mail in ballots in California.
12% or 1,404,822 ballots have been returned:

44% Democratic
34% Republican
18% No Party Preference
4% Other

Demographics:
73% White
14% Latino
11% Asian
2% African American

Age:
50% 65 +
27% 50-64
13% 35-49
10% 18-34

Does that number include counties that have mailed out ballots to every registered voter?

[Coastal Elitist]

With under a week left until June 5th. Here is the current composition of mail in ballots in California.
12% or 1,404,822 ballots have been returned:

44% Democratic
34% Republican
18% No Party Preference
4% Other

Demographics:
73% White
14% Latino
11% Asian
2% African American

Age:
50% 65 +
27% 50-64
13% 35-49
10% 18-34

Does that number include counties that have mailed out ballots to every registered voter?

Yes. It's all here: http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/2014/

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1002222893051232256

[VPH]

I'll be interested to see who wins the AL-GOV Democratic primary. Sue Bell Cobb has the advantage of having been elected statewide and has staked out a more moderate position, while Maddox is younger, more dynamic, and a little more liberal.

[Doimper]

I'll be interested to see who wins the AL-GOV Democratic primary. Sue Bell Cobb has the advantage of having been elected statewide and has staked out a more moderate position, while Maddox is younger, more dynamic, and a little more liberal.

Maddox, I think. He'll have a Jones-esque coalition behind him, and it's not like there are many rural, white Alabama Democrats for Cobb to turn out.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Meh, not like it really matters, Ivey has already locked up the GE win^^

[MT Treasurer]

Montana will be interesting, especially given the lack of (non-internal) polling in virtually all the races.

[ON Progressive]

What are the interesting primaries in each state outside California?

[Alabama_Indy10]

I'll be interested to see who wins the AL-GOV Democratic primary. Sue Bell Cobb has the advantage of having been elected statewide and has staked out a more moderate position, while Maddox is younger, more dynamic, and a little more liberal.

Maddox, I think. He'll have a Jones-esque coalition behind him, and it's not like there are many rural, white Alabama Democrats for Cobb to turn out.

Most of the Democrats I know (rural whites) are supporting Maddox. I know very few people who are voting for Cobb

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For reference: List of Non-CA contested races by state:

AL: D and R Gov, R Lt Gov, CD 1 D, CD 2 D and R, CD 3 D, CD 4 D and R, CD 5 R, Sec. State D and R, Att. Gen. D and R, Treas. R, Auditor R, Ag. Commissioner R

IA: D and L Gov, CD 1 D, CD 3 D, CD 4 D and R, Sec. State D, Ag. Sec. R

MS: D and R Sen, CD 3 D and R, CD 4 R

MT: R and G Sen, CD 1 D

NJ: D and R Sen, CD 1 D, CD 2 D and R, CD 4 D, CD 5 R, CD 6 D, CD 7 D and R, CD 9 D, CD 10 D, CD 11 D and R

NM: D Gov, D Lt. Gov, CD 1 D, CD 2 D and R, Auditor D, Commissioner of Public Lands D

SD: R Gov, CD 1 R, Att. Gen. R

[Gass3268]

Dave Weigel continues to be the best elections reporter.
‏
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1003709225845944320

[kph14]

Dave Weigel continues to be the best elections reporter.
‏
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1003709225845944320

Hopefully the new electronic voter registration database will help to speed up the process a little. (less provisional ballots)

[KingSweden]

I'll be interested to see who wins the AL-GOV Democratic primary. Sue Bell Cobb has the advantage of having been elected statewide and has staked out a more moderate position, while Maddox is younger, more dynamic, and a little more liberal.

Maddox, I think. He'll have a Jones-esque coalition behind him, and it's not like there are many rural, white Alabama Democrats for Cobb to turn out.

Most of the Democrats I know (rural whites) are supporting Maddox. I know very few people who are voting for Cobb

If you had to guess - how much does Maddox beat Cobb by?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Poll Closing Map for tomorrow (ET):

[Alabama_Indy10]

I'll be interested to see who wins the AL-GOV Democratic primary. Sue Bell Cobb has the advantage of having been elected statewide and has staked out a more moderate position, while Maddox is younger, more dynamic, and a little more liberal.

Maddox, I think. He'll have a Jones-esque coalition behind him, and it's not like there are many rural, white Alabama Democrats for Cobb to turn out.

Most of the Democrats I know (rural whites) are supporting Maddox. I know very few people who are voting for Cobb

If you had to guess - how much does Maddox beat Cobb by?

I'm not entirely sure.. It's hard to get a good read on the race. If it's pretty close, it could end up in a runoff with Fields taking a small amount of the vote. Going out on a limb, I say Maddox will get around 54%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sincere request for tonight: since California results will trickle in for days or weeks and the final results may be very different from tonight's returns, can we please avoid any hot takes based on tonight's returns?